1071 Hokage Election Initial Breakdown
When Hazō returns to Leaf, Mari and Haru deliver a report. Shortly before Hazō returned, Tsunade declared that she wanted Leaf to get a "proper" Hokage, now that Akatsuki had exacted their price and presumably intended to exact no more. The election will happen after three days in-character (Hazō returns to Leaf on March 22 at nightfall, election will happen on the morning of March 26).
The current candidates are Uzumaki Naruto (nominated by Kei Haruka), Akimichi Chōza (nominated by Yamanaka Ino), Sarutobi Kurenai (self-nominated), and Hagoromo Ritsuo (self-nominated). Tsunade has not placed a bid.
Being ninja, few clans have outright declared who they will support in the upcoming elections. Nonetheless, Mari and Haru have been hard at work information gathering, and believe clans have the following positions:
In support of Naruto:
- Uzumaki (himself)
- Kei
- Uchiha
In support of Chōza:
- Akimichi (himself)
- Yamanaka
- Nara
In support of Kurenai:
- Sarutobi (herself)
- Aburame
In support of Ritsuo:
- Hagoromo (himself)
- Hyūga
- Kyoshō
- Inuzuka
Undecided/unclear:
- Amori
- Kurusu
- Motoyoshi
- Minami
- Senju
- Gōketsu (obviously)
Yes, Mari agrees that it's concerning that Ritsuo currently has the most votes of any candidate. There's a few days for him to shoot himself in the foot, but with the support of the more politically adept conservative clans, his victory is not… unimaginable.
If you do nothing, Mari and Haru will work behind the scenes to tilt the election in Naruto's favor. Otherwise, they make a few comments to guide Hazō's politicking:
- There are likely many parties trying to convince Tsunade to declare her candidacy. If she does so, she will almost certainly win.
- The Amori/Kurusu/Motoyoshi bloc is not an alliance in the same sense as the Nara/Akimichi/Yamanaka, being instead more of an affiliation of smaller clans who tend to coordinate their votes as a counterweight to the more powerful clans around them. As such, it's likely that they'll vote together. Mari notes that they're moderates that lean conservative, but are more interested in ensuring the good of Leaf than securing a Hokage of any particular affiliation. While Hazō can try to convince them, Mari thinks that there will be a fierce competition to win over their three-vote bloc.
- Haru suspects that Aburame and Uchiha are both voting based on simple team affiliation and personal trust. It's likely that either of them could be convinced to change their vote if someone makes a strong argument for why a particular candidate would be better for their clan or for Leaf. Upside: Hazō could perhaps convince Aburame Shino to change his vote. Downside: Someone else could convince Uchiha Sasuke to change his vote, if he's not sufficiently convinced that Naruto is genuinely the right choice.
- Flipside: Haru thinks that Hyūga Hinata likely has no personal trust in Hagoromo Ritsuo, and is voting for the interests of her clan and the preferences of her clan elders. She would likely change her vote if convinced that the benefits of a Hokage friendly to Clan Hyūga were outweighed by the costs of an incompetent Hokage.
If you want Mari or Haru to try to gather specific intelligence, you should put such instructions in a plan. Otherwise, they'll continue monitoring the general shape of events.
Note: Hinata is currently voting against her sensei. This is likely to have ramifications in the future, most likely a cooling between Sarutobi and Hyūga, although Mari isn't sure how strong it will be.