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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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Buggy said:
The main thing I predict is that there will be a challenge to the unspoken assumption that the issues of actually reviving someone are minor in comparison to the issue of opening the rift.
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We already successfully brought someone back out when the rift was open naturally. They appeared close to the point where they died - which seems like a heck of a coincidence if the afterlife is inconveniently vast and respawn points are random - and the only apparent threat besides lack of ambient chakra was the extremely caustic sea, despite noises of distress that I'd expect would have attracted opportunistic predators if any were present. Certainly not absolute proof that further rescues will be similarly straightforward, but it's non-negligible evidence in favor.
 
_The_Bomb said:
Look man, when I see an opportunity to link to a CGP Grey video I take it.
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Fair 'nuff.

_The_Bomb said:
Whenever I need something urgently on StackOverflow I post a question and then confidently answer it incorrectly with a fake account. The helpful advice immediately floods in.
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Yeah I've heard this is the strategy to take. Unfortunately my rough summary of the 3 leading votes was apparently too accurate because nobody saw it was worth correcting. Pity that. Note to self; be even more wrong in future.
 
Xbobsherex said:
I would like to express my opinion that any plan which involves us permanently leaving leaf without the permission of the interim or elected hokage is going to SEVERELY limit our ability to get things done post resurrection because no one will trust is. Period. Not worth it. I think we should explain to the current hokage what the portal is and how it works, ect, then let him or her decide how they want to rally the other villages to deal with this.
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This is just priorities. Do you care more about politics or...reviving people? Me personally, reviving people and the Hokage can kick rocks.

Twinnstars said:
That's a want of mine, but I don't know how to phrase it
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Say we need our support system (Mari, Noburi, Kagome and Kei if she's willing) if we're going to consider going. If he rejects it, I guess we stay in Leaf. If not, we start gathering our compadres.

Something like:


  • If we join
    • We need our support system (Mari, Noburi, Kagome and Kei if she's willing)
    • We need to be equals with Sasori or his apprentice
    • blah blah blah
 
Black King said:
This is just priorities. Do you care more about politics or...reviving people? Me personally, reviving people and the Hokage can kick rocks.
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Sure, if we revive Jiraya he can walk in, resume being Hokage, and retroactively pardon us for whatever was necessary to get to that point. Can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs... but we might be able to drive to Omeletteville without gratuitously ramming a truck through an egg warehouse on the way.
 
Inferno Vulpix said:
Relayed to me by The Bomb: Remember the Karasu? The previous Crow Summoners that fought souldrinkers with lore given by Karanium? If the Crow Boss really does have valuable anti-souldrinker lore, then we should definitely get the Crows involved in the Dragonwar to help us kill some souldrinkers.

I propose that, during our discussion of the Dragonwar, we bring up what we heard about Karanium and suggest a direct collaboration between Crow and Arachnid. Geographically speaking, Crow is closer to Arachnid than the Conclave (and isn't invited in the first place) so this should maximize the ability for Karanium to contribute to the Crusade when it arrives, I believe.

How about a line like "Hazou's heard that Karanium once helped humans defeat souldrinkers, the support of the Crows could be invaluable for the Dragonwar. Offer what help we can provide in setting up collaboration with the Crows."? Something like this could go in any plan that discusses the Dragonwar.
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Following up on this, does anyone object to me adding "Hazou's heard that the Crows once helped humans defeat souldrinkers. If that's true, their help could be invaluable for vanquishing the Dragons. Offer what help we can provide for the Crows making contact with Arachnid or the Conclave."? We can talk directly to Kumokogo and Enma about the option if Itachi agrees, and I imagine both of them would be happy to help accommodate a new clan lending its support to the cause.

I'd put it right between the two main sub-points of the Dragonwar section, if it's acceptable. Current plan for reference:
Inferno Vulpix said:
[X] Action Plan: Dragons Make Everything Complicated
  • Overriding constraint: EM, FOOM, and lithosealing OPSEC
  • Tone: polite, but honest. Treat Itachi as an informed intellectual and don't waste his time.
  • Before we make a decision, there are a couple things that we'd like to know, and that you'd need to know.
  • Have a discussion about Pein's philosophy and goals. Be earnest, engage with it as genuine philosophical discourse.
    • Last time, there were parts we wouldn't understand. This time, we'd like to try.
  • Outline the Dragonwar and our role within it. Answer any clarifying questions Itachi has.
    • We seriously believe that this is a real existential threat, and so has Asuma, Orochimaru, and Enma when they each visited Arachnid to see for themselves. If my testimony doesn't carry enough weight, you can visit Arachnid yourself or talk to one of them to become sure.
    • The Conclave is intertwined with Hazou's personal reputation and his relations with the other Leaf summoners. He needs to remain in the good graces of everyone present to maximise odds of success.
      • It's already distressing enough that it's taken so long, with multiple dragons already on the loose.
  • Thus our question: is there a way for us to join Akatsuki without compromising the Dragonwar? Publicly going missing or faking our death would both significantly hinder efforts.
    • If Itachi needs suggestions for options, Hazou could be "hired" on a long-term mission, or invited as a "diplomatic envoy".
  • If Itachi vetos all plausibly viable alternatives, then we must decline, as we're more needed here where we can help the Seventh Path.
    • However, we have one request before you go. When you get Pain back, when world peace is secure and it's safe to start resurrecting other people… please, save our family. Rescuing them is the whole reason we started work on necromancy.
  • If there are workable routes Itachi might accept, we take a moment to think about them. End chapter to vote for actual answer.
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faflec said:
  • Cons:
    • We know little about Akatsuki save the horror stories.
    • Further cripples Dragonwar efforts.
    • Leave Leaf and loved ones behind/endangers Goketsu.
  • Pros:
    • May be only way to stay part of Necromancy/save Akane.
    • Best way to influence Pain.
    • Was Pain right all along?
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Phrasing feels a little robotic. "Stay part of Necromancy" reads as egoistic. Not sold on how leaving Asuma's death out of the Cons informs Hazō's characterization. Copied from @Rafin, please fix macron on Gōketsu and lower in the plan where the macron is over the e.
 
[X] Action Plan: What's an Akatsuki Anyway But With Dragons
[X] Action Plan: Dragons Make Everything Complicated
[X] Action Plan: The Dragon War Calls, Faflec Edition
[X] Politely decline
 
strange_person said:
Sure, if we revive Jiraya he can walk in, resume being Hokage, and retroactively pardon us for whatever was necessary to get to that point. Can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs... but we might be able to drive to Omeletteville without gratuitously ramming a truck through an egg warehouse on the way.
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Yes but...the Hokage is so much stronger than us that if she disagrees, she can 100% prevent us from doing any necromancy. Which is why it might be better to just...skip her altogether.
 
Twinnstars said:
This is the bystander effect in action, and it's tricking you because you only see it hitting yourself, instead of telling everyone "If it mattered someone else would have done it first".

I actually really don't like this plan of action, but I dislike people losing to logical fallacies more
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Is it really a fallacy though? Probabilistically something more popular is more likely to have someone else already made a plan. Technically you don't lose anything by trying and making the plan anyway, but that's only if you ignore the psychological cost. Trying something and failing feels worse than not trying at all.
 
roobee said:
Is it really a fallacy though? Probabilistically something more popular is more likely to have someone else already made a plan. Technically you don't lose anything by trying and making the plan anyway, but that's only if you ignore the psychological cost. Trying something and failing feels worse than not trying at all.
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In the general sense, I agree with you. But in this specific case...

This is an understatement. This is the community that must be limited in word count under threat of punishment, that spends hours or arguably days fine-tuning the precise wording and tone of their votes. And the suggestion is a two-word vote with no details or arguments. Expecting that to be a waste of a vote is absolutely not a fallacy, it's basic pattern recognition.

In the hypothetical where that suggestion is more of a prod towards a more involved plan, then it absolutely does cost time and effort and emotional investment towards creating it. And after all that, you can still expect that probabilistically it'll be unpopular based on the logic (not fallacy) that nobody has suggested it yet despite hours of discussion between multiple highly-invested parties. Of course it being probably unpopular is not an absolute conclusion but I feel like shouldn't need to be said, except in the case where people can't resist an opportunity to jump on and tell you you're wrong.
 
Inferno Vulpix said:
Following up on this, does anyone object to me adding "Hazou's heard that the Crows once helped humans defeat souldrinkers. If that's true, their help could be invaluable for vanquishing the Dragons. Offer what help we can provide for the Crows making contact with Arachnid or the Conclave."? We can talk directly to Kumokogo and Enma about the option if Itachi agrees, and I imagine both of them would be happy to help accommodate a new clan lending its support to the cause.

I'd put it right between the two main sub-points of the Dragonwar section, if it's acceptable. Current plan for reference:
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Alright, on account of nobody disagreeing with this move, I've added it to my plan. If you see this and find that you disagree, tell me and we'll figure out what to do instead.
Inferno Vulpix said:
[X] Action Plan: Dragons Make Everything Complicated
  • Overriding constraint: EM, FOOM, and lithosealing OPSEC
  • Tone: polite, but honest. Treat Itachi as an informed intellectual and don't waste his time.
  • Before we make a decision, there are a couple things that we'd like to know, and that you'd need to know.
  • Have a discussion about Pain's philosophy and goals. Be earnest, engage with it as genuine philosophical discourse.
    • Last time, there were parts we wouldn't understand. This time, we'd like to try.
  • Outline the Dragonwar and our role within it. Answer any clarifying questions Itachi has.
    • We seriously believe that this is a real existential threat, and so has Asuma, Orochimaru, and Enma when they each visited Arachnid to see for themselves. If our testimony doesn't carry enough weight, you can visit Arachnid yourself or talk to one of them to become more confident.
    • Hazou's heard that the Crows once helped humans defeat souldrinkers. If that's true, their help could be invaluable for vanquishing the Dragons. Offer what help we can provide for the Crows making contact with Arachnid or the Conclave.
    • The Conclave is intertwined with Hazou's personal reputation and his relations with the other Leaf summoners. He needs to remain in the good graces of everyone present to maximise odds of success.
      • It's already distressing enough that it's taken so long, with multiple dragons already on the loose.
  • Thus our question: is there a way for us to join Akatsuki without compromising the Dragonwar? Publicly going missing or faking our death would both significantly hinder efforts.
    • If Itachi needs suggestions for options, Hazou could be "hired" on a long-term mission, or invited as a "diplomatic envoy".
  • If Itachi vetos all plausibly viable alternatives, then we must decline, as we're more needed here where we can help the Seventh Path.
    • However, we have one request before you go. When you get Pain back, when world peace is secure and it's safe to start resurrecting other people… please, save our family. Rescuing them is the whole reason we started work on necromancy.
  • If there are workable routes Itachi might accept, we take a moment to think about them. End chapter to vote for actual answer.
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Edit: also fixed the Pain spelling, don't mind me.
 
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Inferno Vulpix said:
I feel like that would just wind up ticking Itachi off in exchange for minimum novel information. Like, a "grr ritual bad" sentiment is baked into the second line, enough that even if he chooses not to say that line Hazou would likely let that sentiment show when explicitly raising the Nagi Island question.
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I feel like "is Pain going to try Nagi Island 2.0?" is mission-critical info.
One could reasonably argue Itachi might not know the answer, and seems unlikely to share it if he did.

at the very least, please make a note saying (if it hasn't come up: ask about the Nagi Island ritual.). or something ele to tat effect.
 
redzonejoe said:
In the general sense, I agree with you. But in this specific case...
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so...you agree with me in both the general and specific case?
redzonejoe said:
In the hypothetical where that suggestion is more of a prod towards a more involved plan, then it absolutely does cost time and effort and emotional investment towards creating it.
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A two word plan costs psychological effort and emotional investment yeah, but it doesn't cost time.

@Inferno Vulpix
Can you correct the name to Pain? I don't want itachi to get pissed that hazou mispronounces his name, especially since we know he's touchy about calling him Nagato.
On Nagi island. I don't care too much about asking whether Pain will redo ritual (itachi could just lie and his guess might not even be accurate). I would like to know what the ritual was, but your point about annoying itachi also makes sense so I don't mind if you don't.
 
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Left-Hand Mutant said:
I feel like "is Pain going to try Nagi Island 2.0?" is mission-critical info.
One could reasonably argue Itachi might not know the answer, and seems unlikely to share it if he did.

at the very least, please make a note saying (if it hasn't come up: ask about the Nagi Island ritual.). or something ele to tat effect.
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I'm honestly still pretty convinced that this is covered by Hazou asking not only what Pain's goals are, but what Itachi thought we wouldn't understand back at O'Uzu:
Velorien said:
"An outsider like you has no right to speak that name. To the world, to those who knew him not as a man but only through his actions, he called himself Pain. He refused to forget, even for an instant, the price he was forcing them to pay for his ambitions."

"What ambitions?" Hazō asked.

"World peace," Itachi said softly. An end to"—he waved a hand vaguely in the air—"all this. An end to humanity as it saw itself. I doubt you would understand."

Hazō didn't.
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This is, like, the question of how he intends to reshape human nature, by mundane or magical means. It's literally what you're asking, but in terms that Itachi would respect and appreciate. It doesn't draw a big red circle around Nagi Island and say "but will he do a ritual again?" but I expect this to give us the information we need and I can't think of a way to draw a big red circle around Nagi Island without causing problems, not the least because Itachi considers Hazou personally responsible for stopping it but also because if Hazou is predisposed to think poorly of the ritual then we create friction that we dearly need to avoid here.

Here's the closest I can think of to the big red circle: we can ask if Pain might consider AMITY the way forwards. This would help because Itachi's answer may very well be "no" and that would tell us all we need to know. Would that be sufficient?
 
Hey, uh, @faflec,
faflec said:
Hazou is obviously conflicted.
  • Cons:
    • We know little about Akatsuki save the horror stories.
    • Further cripples Dragonwar efforts.
    • Leave Leaf and loved ones behind/endangers Goketsu.
  • Pros:
    • More influence on the Necromancy plot/saving Akane.
    • Best way to influence Pain.
    • Was Pain right all along?
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You probably want to clarify that this is something Hazou thinks, not says. Unless you really want to find out how Itachi will react to Hazou reasoning out loud about the best ways for him to "influence Pain", in which case go ahead~

[X] Action Plan: Dragons Make Everything Complicated
[X] Action Plan: What's an Akatsuki Anyway But With Dragons
 
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