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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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@Velorien @OliWhail @eaglejarl

Silhouette Seal

This seal was created by an enterprising Nara in pursuit of a seal that would produce proper shadows for use with their clan techniques. Though it didn't work for that, the Nara recognized the potential of this seal, and with a touch more refinement, produced this.

The Silhouette Seal produces a vaguely-human-shaped shadow caricature. Any interaction with the shadow itself disperses the illusion, as does a sufficiently strong gust of wind. It may be used to give the impression of there being someone there in combination with props, or behind a curtain or paper wall, similar to the Clone technique but without requiring the user's focus.

It lasts thirty minutes, at which point if one is listening closely one can hear a faint keening before both it and its seal vanishes with no trace. This effect has never been successfully replicated in another seal.
 
Kiba said:
Do we get XP for Hazō et al.
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For creating seals and jutsu? No, but you do get happier QMs, and happy QMs are more generous with XP for plans, so it works out.

Cariyaga said:
On which note: @eaglejarl @Velorien @OliWhail is there any preferred format for seals?
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Not at this time; we really should create one.

Roomba said:
I'm largely apathetic when it comes to training for the tournament until it's shown to have any mechanical benefits. Thus far, training was just an opportunity to spend XP, and for that, we don't need anything special.
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Well, one mechanical benefit is that you actually get to spend the XP...I mean, if the plans completely fill up your time with non-training things then you're going to get to the tournament with a whole lot of banked XP and no extra skills to show for it.

faflec said:
Actually, @eaglejarl @Velorien @OliWhail Did Akane's team come back with us?
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Yes.

MMKII said:
I honestly would prefer (if at all possible) to never modify a plan in the last ~6 hours or so of the deadline.
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The following is nothing about you, but you nudged my memory:

For the record, right now there's no rules about when you can and can't vote or modify plans. My understanding of player norms is that it's déclassé to make significant changes to a plan shortly before the vote closes, but I'm aware of no specific definition for how long a period 'shortly' covers. (Also, human nature being what it is, most likely no one will object to last-minute changes so long as nothing goes wrong in the chapter.)

There's been repeated discussion about instituting a norm that plans don't get suggested or modified in the last (12 / 6 / 3 / 1 / 0.5 / ...) hours before a vote closes; that's a norm that you can make if you want, but consider carefully, since you'll be locking out players who are in the "wrong" timezones.

Kiba said:
Can we get the QMs to read the current winning plan?
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It's @Velorien's update so hopefully he'll speak up, but here's what I see:

  1. This is an intimidatingly long plan
  2. Much of it is descriptive but not actionable. For example, the entire section under "Expansionist tendencies are a problem." -- what would Velorien actually write as a result of that section? Contrast that with "Analyze the situation", which has questions that could inform dialogue or character actions.
  3. Scene structure:
    1. Breaks down into 5 major scenes: 'Morning', 'Afternoon', and then three separate dialogue scenes under 'Evening'. Personally, I would find that a bit daunting.
    2. The 'Afternoon' scene could easily be offscreened, which helps a little.
    3. The three scenes which comprise 'Evening' are all going to be fairly spoon-heavy:
      1. "Pangolins" is emotionally charged
      2. The other two require some worldbuilding from the QMs so that we know the answers. That's problematic since:
        1. @OliWhail just got back from a hackathon and is still exhausted;
        2. Velorien has been waggling between poor sleep and illness for a couple weeks; and,
        3. My work schedule is such that I don't overlap with Velorien very much anymore during the week.
      3. If we don't end up getting that done in time for the update then Velorien could either defer those scenes to me or we can simply give you an OOC infodump.
 
Vecht said:
I'd like to pose an alternate hypothesis, which is that this particular edit being made in proximity to a deadline was not in fact the cause of the error, so much as a failure in judgement and lack of critical review.

"But Vecht, if you make edits close to the deadline then people have less of an opportunity to review them!"

...Okay, so review the edits thoroughly, get impartial feedback, and then make the modification only if it makes sense to do so. This may preclude making edits closer to deadlines, but you still aren't avoiding the edits because of the deadlines.

"But people are tired and more likely to make mistakes when staying up late!"

...Okay, so don't make edits or suggestions when you are impaired or otherwise mentally compromised. This may preclude making edits or suggestions closer to deadlines, but you still aren't avoiding the edits or suggestions because of the deadlines.

"But there are flaws or inadequacies in the leading plan!"

...Okay, so vote in a minimally risky fallback plan and take the hit to xp and effectiveness of action. If the situation is high-stakes enough to be a cause for concern, then counterfactually have made your plan much sooner and/or update on collective competency with regard to the planning fallacy.

Logically, there is not a distinction between a one hour interval ending thirty six hours before the plan deadline, and a one hour interval ending five minutes before the deadline (assuming no further action is taken afterwards). The timing itself is not cause for excessive paranoia, which is itself a far greater harm.

E: "But I didn't see it / didn't get to vote for or against it!"

Okay, but it got enough votes to win anyway, or didn't. What's the problem, again?
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Low-risk fallbacks in a risky situation sound great.

Otherwise, at the risk of stating the obvious: stress and sleep-dep and competition impair judgment, make people less likely to make the low-risk "I should log off" play—especially if they think others aren't likely to do the same. Bright-line rules are a reasonable workaround.

Also, the thing @Cariyaga said about voting for a planmaker rather than a plan.

I agree that this shouldn't be an absolute rule. After all, Umesh's Law tells us we should look for the sweet spot of about equal expected loss contributions from voting things in at the last minute and from calling a halt too early.
 
eaglejarl said:
since you'll be locking out players who are in the "wrong" timezones.
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More to the point from my above digression, this is actually the thing I care about. I'd love to participate more in plan writing without getting flak for it, particularly prior to EJ's updates.

I had a PM chat with @Roomba about the previous debacle and I think we ended things amicably and on good terms. Both of us handled that kind of poorly and I'd really like to avoid that in the future.
 
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I feel like if we make a hard deadline of 'no changes to the plan later than 6 hours before the deadline', then all we accomplish is make the new deadline '6 hours before the deadline' with no other meaningful changes.

Instead, what we should do (and what is kinda the norm already) is for, as the deadline approaches, the planmakers to get increasingly hesitant to make changes. Minor tweaks here and there, but few major changes and a lot more vocal exclamations of what exactly they're changing in case people have objections. That way plans get more and more rigid the closer they get to the deadline and the potentially large unforseen consequences of minor changes are mitigated by how they're brought to everyone's attention.
 
eaglejarl said:
Breaks down into 5 major scenes: 'Morning', 'Afternoon', and then three separate dialogue scenes under 'Evening'. Personally, I would find that a bit daunting.
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But don't you find it flattering though how collectively we have so much faith in your's and @Velorien's unquestionably stellar writing capabilities? Doesn't it say something about your authorial astonimazing magnifitude that we expect you to be able to write through this and shrug it off like it was nothing?

CCNJ: This is only partly a joke and in no way sarcasm or irony. You guys are awesome.
 
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I'd kind of rather just do the pangolin scene, Shadow Clones (if Jiraiya's in condition to) and then leave the remaining scene of three -- if Velorien's got enough spoons left -- up to Velorien.
 
Langevin said:
Sorry, mobile made it tough to hyperlink. This: Shtetl-Optimized » Blog Archive » Umeshisms
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Oh, that.

Umesh said:
If you've never missed a flight, you're spending too much time in airports.
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I've been aware of this aphorism for a while, and I find it infuriating -- both because of how patronizing it is and because of how fallacious. The built-in assumption is that time in airports is always wasted and/or cannot be enjoyable, both of which are simply false.

I get the idea behind the saying, which I would state as something like "Most people are more risk-averse than they need to be, so don't be afraid to push your limits a bit", but the actual phrase is just offensive.

faflec said:
Damn, so Haru isn't related to Honoka and her family :(
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I didn't say that. Just because he didn't happen to be around when Kagome was there doesn't mean he's not part of the family. Kagome is always and only there for tutoring, so he doesn't interact with Aoi and her husband outside of that context very much, meaning that if Haru is Honoka's brother then his name may simply not have had cause to come up yet.
 
eaglejarl said:
I've been aware of this aphorism for a while, and I find it infuriating -- both because of how patronizing it is and because of how fallacious. The built-in assumption is that time in airports is always wasted and/or cannot be enjoyable, both of which are simply false.

I get the idea behind the saying, which I would state as something like "Most people are more risk-averse than they need to be, so don't be afraid to push your limits a bit", but the actual phrase is just offensive.
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Yeah, I generally enjoy my airport time. I suspect this particular Umeshism became popular in part because it's provocatively phrased. Scott Aaronson also hosted a contest for these—you might like one of the top entries better. Shtetl-Optimized » Blog Archive » The winner
 
Double Explosion Seal: It explodes in the same way as a normal explosive seal, but the seal itself is shielded from the blast, allowing it to explode again a few seconds later. Mechanically, it is used like a regular explosive seal but also gives the user next round a tag against an enemy within the same zone as the seal.

*Note, this expands outwards into triple or quadruple explosion seal if you really want to stretch it, potentially letting you set up a zone for free tags the entire fight. Perfect as a Kagome pet project.
 
Oh, btw, we should probably start writing the words for Jiraiya's eulogy. I figure we'll have, I dunno, 2-3 updates before he dies?

I wonder if Hiashi will allow us to stay in Leaf afterwards...
 
Three Seal Paralytic

A three-element seal mostly used in T&I to keep prisoners secure. All three elements are placed on the same plane. A (single) person within is unable to move. The seal keys in on a ninja-sized (greater than approximately 20 chakra) chakra signature to perform its effect.

There are no rumors about a variant of this seal that serves as a trap, combining the effects of Lesser Barrier Formation and Three Seal Paralytic.

The basis for this seal was Five Seal Barrier.
 
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Vecht said:
Minor quibble, any three points define a plane.
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So then it's accurate? :p

Greater Barrier Formation

A four-element tripwire seal with effects similar to Lesser Barrier Formation, although instead of triggering on a seal crossing the line, it triggers upon a seal crossing the plane that the four seals make. The seals must be placed to create a square or rectangle between them. The seals, unlike Lesser barrier Formation, do not need to be facing each other (and, indeed, cannot be). It may trigger up to four seals

Greatest Barrier Formation

An eight-element tripwire seal with effect similar to Greater Barrier Formation, but instead of triggering based on movement along a plane, it triggers based on movement within the three-dimensional confines the seals create. It may trigger up to eight seals.
 
Cariyaga said:
Greatest Barrier Formation
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Spurious Barrier Formation

A sixteen-element tripwire seal with effects somehow unlike that of the Greatest, Greater, or Lesser Barrier Formations. Sixteen seals are placed spatially and temporally at the points that would nominally define a regular tesseract, using the Sugimoto metric. It is of dubious use, only barely managing to be classified as a "seal" rather than a "sealing failure." Instead of triggering based on movement, it is unknown what event triggers the seal. This system may trigger up to sixteen seals, and effectively acts as a random timer.

Radvic said:
Is there a specific mechanism for Jiraiya's death you think is more plausible than others?
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Akatsuki, duh.
 
Vecht said:
Akatsuki, duh.
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Cariyaga said:
I sure hope he doesn't drag us with him.
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Hmm... so is the thought that the thing Jiraiya tracked will lead to him personally confronting Akatsuki or being confronted by Akatsuki? Seems reasonable I suppose, though I don't think we know how Jiraiya stacks up against them in terms of power levels, aside from "Jiraiya tends to be extremely confident and also is not dead yet," "Akatsuki has powerful people," and "Akatsuki killed Jiraiya in canon." Hmm... makes it sound pretty plausible. That said, I still wouldn't say "next 2 or 3 updates." I will be fairly surprised if 2 or 3 updates covers a full week, and I'd imagine it takes a while to act on whatever Jiraiya found out.
 
Radvic said:
Hmm... so is the thought that the thing Jiraiya tracked will lead to him personally confronting Akatsuki or being confronted by Akatsuki? Seems reasonable I suppose, though I don't think we know how Jiraiya stacks up against them in terms of power levels, aside from "Jiraiya tends to be extremely confident and also is not dead yet," "Akatsuki has powerful people," and "Akatsuki killed Jiraiya in canon." Hmm... makes it sound pretty plausible. That said, I still wouldn't say "next 2 or 3 updates." I will be fairly surprised if 2 or 3 updates covers a full week, and I'd imagine it takes a while to act on whatever Jiraiya found out.
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On the other hand, Jiraiya wrecks. So, we just have to keep him from getting in over his head basically.
 
Radvic said:
Hmm... so is the thought that the thing Jiraiya tracked will lead to him personally confronting Akatsuki or being confronted by Akatsuki? Seems reasonable I suppose, though I don't think we know how Jiraiya stacks up against them in terms of power levels, aside from "Jiraiya tends to be extremely confident and also is not dead yet," "Akatsuki has powerful people," and "Akatsuki killed Jiraiya in canon." Hmm... makes it sound pretty plausible. That said, I still wouldn't say "next 2 or 3 updates." I will be fairly surprised if 2 or 3 updates covers a full week, and I'd imagine it takes a while to act on whatever Jiraiya found out.
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Mostly basing this off of previous events when Leaf decided to abruptly move on Mist with the skywalkers. I don't see Jiraiya sitting around on useful information.
 
Radvic said:
Hmm... so is the thought that the thing Jiraiya tracked will lead to him personally confronting Akatsuki or being confronted by Akatsuki? Seems reasonable I suppose, though I don't think we know how Jiraiya stacks up against them in terms of power levels, aside from "Jiraiya tends to be extremely confident and also is not dead yet," "Akatsuki has powerful people," and "Akatsuki killed Jiraiya in canon." Hmm... makes it sound pretty plausible. That said, I still wouldn't say "next 2 or 3 updates." I will be fairly surprised if 2 or 3 updates covers a full week, and I'd imagine it takes a while to act on whatever Jiraiya found out.
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We also know that canon Jiraiya is the strongest ninja in the world for almost 2 decades (more non consecutively pre minato), and that he seems to have carried over most of that. Even if he isn't #1 here as well, I would be very surprised if he wasn't a close contender among the next few spots., given what we've seen of his build.
 
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