I think it would be worth revisiting the whole "these characters are not prodigies" topic though. There are a number of reasons why prodigies could get overlooked by the ninja school system. There are a number of reasons why prodigies get overlooked by the RL school system. A while in the woods running for your life could very easily cure people of the "smart but lazy" aspect. Perhaps ninja school is actually crappy, and most prodigies get a lot of clan support, etc. There are a lot of in-universe explanations for why the characters could all be prodigies and still get sent on the death mission. Mari did pick them specifically out of all the available genin.
I don't know, the goketsu kids look like prodigies to me, and I think it deserves a rethink from the QMs.
EDIT: Forgot to remove all the text from a non-helpful point
We defined a curve where the average ninja is at 50% and people like Itachi and Jiraiya are at 99%. That curve defines your base XP -- how much you get per day just for not dying. We've deliberately been a bit cagey about where the kids fall on the curve but I can say that, although they are not 99%ers, they are well above average. That said, your percentile dictates what the default award is, and you have frequently exceeded that number by a good margin based on making good plans, which pushes you farther up the curve than your base would suggest.
Are the kids prodigies? It depends on your definition of "prodigy". They are not prodigies by Kishimoto standards -- they don't magically have all the skills without having to do any work or etc. In the real world they would definitely be in the Talented and Gifted program but they probably wouldn't be the valedictorian if they were going to a reasonably-sized school.
We defined a curve where the average ninja is at 50% and people like Itachi and Jiraiya are at 99%. That curve defines your base XP -- how much you get per day just for not dying. We've deliberately been a bit cagey about where the kids fall on the curve but I can say that, although they are not 99%ers, they are well above average. That said, your percentile dictates what the default award is, and you have frequently exceeded that number by a good margin based on making good plans, which pushes you farther up the curve than your base would suggest.
Are the kids prodigies? It depends on your definition of "prodigy". They are not prodigies by Kishimoto standards -- they don't magically have all the skills without having to do any work or etc. In the real world they would definitely be in the Talented and Gifted program but they probably wouldn't be the valedictorian if they were going to a reasonably-sized school.
Well outside of Naruto and Sasuke we pretty solidly outperform everyone in our age group. These guys are all the clan heirs who should have every advantage possible. So we aren't quite once in a generation prodigies but we are definitely top tier
Well outside of Naruto and Sasuke we pretty solidly outperform everyone in our age group. These guys are all the clan heirs who should have every advantage possible. So we aren't quite once in a generation prodigies but we are definitely top tier
It's too bad Jiraiya isn't free to train us personally, I'm pretty sure that would bump us up a few notches given how many S-rankers he's personally trained...
e:
...Wait. We really need to talk to him about Shadow Clones, both for Noburi to abuse (with a bunch of "pet" chakra beasts) and for Noburi to provide Jiraiya with the means to train us personally.
It's too bad Jiraiya isn't free to train us personally, I'm pretty sure that would bump us up a few notches given how many S-rankers he's personally trained...
e:
...Wait. We really need to talk to him about Shadow Clones, both for Noburi to abuse (with a bunch of "pet" chakra beasts) and for Noburi to provide Jiraiya with the means to train us personally.
We were already told about it to the point where Hazou could put together it's function during the aftermath of the Ultimate Battle. And even if he wasn't willing to teach it to Noburi, Noburi could still provide him with chakra to use it.
Radvic's Analysis of Mechanics Changing... and Coding
@OliWhail@eaglejarl@Velorien
So, I've mostly been concerned about these things without bringing them up explicitly (at least outside of the Discord or passing references), but I'm fairly concerned by the mechanics switch, especially after seeing the new mechanics in the state they currently are in. I think I can summarize my concerns into three broad categories, which I'll explain here. I also think I can personally help significantly alleviate QM strain by writing code accounting for a variety of situations. I've detailed the projects I plan on working on (some which I think might be helpful) at the end of my post.
FATE and Simulationist approaches
After learning more about FATE, I think the FATE rules as written have significant friction with a simulationist approach to gaming, given MfD's context as a forum game. This *can* be fixed by excessive QM rulings and arbitration on a case by case basis, but will require significant effort from the QMs (especially re: Fate Points, Aspects, and Zones) and hide significant mechanics from the players (e.g. "can we use our aspects in this combat?" "How many Fate Points do we expect to get?" "How short of a plan can we get away with while still getting a Fate Point?"). In an in person role playing session these problems would be fairly easily solved due to real time interaction and player-QM feedback, as players could take a more active role mid-combat for instance. However, players only interactions with QMs are *outside* of combat, and active scenes, rather than during those times, making MfD a significantly different situation from a traditional role playing situation.
The FATE system adds significant new data players would want to account for mid-update, as players would now need to estimate mechanical things like "will the QMs will let us use all or most of the aspect usage we want," "Can we spend a Fate Point here?" "Will this action get us a Fate Point?" "Can we manufacture a situation so that X Aspect triggers?" "Will the QMs give us a compel in this situation?" etc. From the QM side, I think this will cause significantly more work as QMs need to arbitrate new things including: if an Aspect could be used, given it has effects on the simulation for purely mechanical reasons; what the players meant with all the Aspect triggers they provided; how enemies would use their Aspects etc. Additionally, as this adds a layer of mystery between QM and player interaction, I believe this will lead to increased miscommunication, and thus more sorrow, sadness, and salt amongst both players and QMs as players interpret QMs as 'having it out for them' and QMs are increasingly nagged by players about things like "Why didn't my aspect work in this situation? Clearly I would have saved my Fate Point if I'd known the first combat roll went that way!" and other nags. So, I think that the FATE system itself is not a good system for a simulationist quest at its core, and that the efforts to force it into that state will cause significant stress and disention between QMs and players. As the rules are much more free-flowing, they are also much more open to misinterpretation between players and QMs, which is a very significant concern in MfD.
System Optimization Paths
The new system will have different optimizations than the old one. If we assume all the currently broken parts (esp. specialization & ninjutsu) are fixed and Aspects/simulationist concerns don't cause problems, optimal builds will still look different. I can see three broad ways to resolve this. First, we could change the basics of "how do ninja work and/or divide labor amongst themselves" from the assumptions of the story up to this point (especially with how specialized high level ninja/leaders will be, how much civilians would handily defeat ninja at diplomacy, and how ninja should self-select for people with the appropriate aspects). Second, we could just say "the world isn't different, there's just a secret path to power that nobody takes because they don't have explicit access to the mechanics of the world and this hasn't impacted social evolution because reasons," and then accept that the players will eventually manipulate their character and those they can influence onto those paths, or plead with the playerbase to not build optimally. Third, we can painstakingly edit the new mechanics to fit the old world's results (by doing things like messing with the relative XP cost curve for each skill).
Of the three options, I think we are currently pursuing the third, which makes sense from a simulation-first approach (though Sakura's specialization suggests we're considering the first). However, I am unconvinced that the solutions reached by pursuing this will leave the same optimization routes as existed in the old system. I also suspect the computational load of assigning odd aspects to the skill and XP curve will make it significantly more difficult for QMs to build new characters (ease of character building being one of the reasons I thought we were switching to this system). This brings me to my final and most relevant point.
QM System strain
I believe a primary reason we switching from the old system is the QM strain involved with the old system. The impetus for switching was the 20 person combat scene, combined with low QM spoons and the understanding that QM spoons wouldn't be available at a high rate for a long period of time to maintain this situation, especially while Hazou and team move up in world influence (leading to similar situations going forward, and exacerbating previous concerns with the old system). One of the biggest draws of switching was that we could move to a battle-tested system with rules someone else had already checked for exploits, which didn't require much maintenance, and required fewer decisions from QMs mid-update. That said, it looks like we're not going to land in that boat. The system we are developing is a custom amalgamation of the past rules and new rules, and must be so for simulationist concerns. Making the mechanics a combination of systems means we will not be working with a battle-tested system, just a different system, now one where the past two years of battle testing may or may not apply.
Additionally, I suspect that the strain of a 20 ninja combat will actually be similar, if not higher than in the old system. It appears we will be porting all the same combat options Hazou and team had into the new system, effectively keeping the same level of complexity we had previously, while adding in Aspects, Weapons levels, Ninjutsu levels, stress tracks, consequences, and fate points. This seems like the system will actually be *more* difficult to simulate combat with than the previous system.
Conclusions on the system change
Summing these things together, I think that the result of our mechanics switching will actually be a net drain long-term on QMs (obviously it's a drain short-term as well). That said, I may be projecting onto the QMs my own reasons for why I would have troubles running the system, or misunderstanding their purposes behind switching systems, or drawing incorrect conclusions about the new system. As the purpose of the mechanics change is to let the people providing me with free entertainment an easier time to do so, I have no intention of yelling at them for any of this, or demanding they take action against the problems I see on the horizon, and am grateful they have decided and committed to continuing the quest despite coming across these problems. However, I do think that the new system will actually increase the difficulty QMs have running the game, require significant retconning on ninja society, cause perpetual and significant conflicts between the mechanics as written and the world as described, and increase instances of miscommunication between players and the QMs. That said, I want to help.
Coding
So, one of the biggest concerns I've seen put forward by QMs is the difficulty of building new things (characters, ninjutsu, seals, etc), and actually using the rules (both in the old and new systems). There are also currently concerns with XP scaling, and exploits there. I have a fair amount of capability in modeling and simulating, and believe I can build tools which would make QM lives significantly easier, either for formulating the new mechanics or making mechanics easier to run. I would like to make tools which reduce QM strain. Here are a few of the tools I believe I can construct:
I could make an auto-NPC-character generation tool, initial proposed workings as follows:
Inputs:
---------
Name - string with the name of the character
XP_available - integer value with amount of XP a ninja has
Specialization_factor - float between 0 and 1 describing how specialized the character is into their specialty, with 1 being "never spent any XP outside of making them do primary task better" and 0 being "evenly spent XP across all available techniques and abilities.
Specializations - list of type variable, with types of "Taijutsu" "Weapons" "Ninjutsu" "Stealth" "Face" "Utility" and/or "Civilian" (I'd offer Genjutsu, but I've never understood how it works, so would need to have a fair amount of back and forth with someone who did before I could offer that)
jutsu_or_techniques_available - defaults to "fudge_jutsu_or_technique" where the bonuses are based off a standardized "combat effectiveness" determined by simulation data, otherwise accepts a list of jutsu the ninja can train.
Outputs:
-----------
Character sheet for desired character as a <character_name>.csv
I could make a jutsu effect simulation tool to help QMs balance jutsu they design with proposed initial workings as follows:
Inputs:
---------
jutsu - function describing how the proposed combat technique interacts with combat
wielder_list - defaults to a list of auto-generated characters to each gain the technique and fight with it, can have specific character data input if desired.
opponent_list - defaults to wielder_list
Number_of_combats - integer determining how many times each pair fights with and without the jutsu. Defaults to 100
Outputs:
-----------
Analytics of "how justu impacted combat" including:
Overall_rating: a single number providing an estimate of "how much of a difference did this jutsu do overall." Provides a general recommendation on how much the skill should cost.
Survivability_rating: How many rounds did this extend the combat on average
Win_cases: which opponent pairs did this jutsu make a significant difference?
Average_dice_bonus_per_level: how many dice did the jutsu add to each individual roll in a character who had it compared to one who didn't per level?
Chakra_usage: what percentage of chakra was spent on this technique during combat
Group_fight_ability: How much did this technique help in group-fights?
Growth rate: How does this technique impact character growth over various periods of time (e.g. impact of Pangolin training jutsu)
other-metrics-as-desired: Pretty much any data metric which someone thinks could be helpful to determine how OP a technique is, likely including box-plots, histograms, and other Exploratory Data Analysis tools for quickly visualizing impact.
I could also build a general combat simulation asset tool, designed to help QMs simulate combat step by step, providing descriptions of the different options available to each character and the expected dice rolls of their available actions
Inputs:
---------
number of sides - how many sides there are in the combat
for each side: combatants - a list of csv files with character sheet data
Outputs:
-----------
State of the battle after each action (including chakra levels, injuries, characters up on each side, but probably not relative character location)
An interactive prompt describing what character's turn it is, their available options (And projected rolls for those options), and an input for what action they take, moving on to the next character in initiative after each turn.
I'm pretty confident I could make the above tools for whatever system we wind up using (though I don't at present understand the new system enough to automate it). As it stands, my above analysis explains why I think the old system is the best system to use (if we can solve QM strain concerns, which I think this would do). My current plan is to finish the general combat simulation tool I'd started for the old rules, unless the QMs give me a different coding project they'd prefer I work on. Other potential tools I can work on (if the QMs ask me to) related to the system changes include but are not limited to:
A data visualization tool analyzing the relative impacts of Aspects, skill levels, and tools (e.g. Macerators) on meeting TNs
A skill cost function for each skill mapping relative costs from the old system onto the new system
An analysis of the impacts of various rule addons (e.g. Ninja Hands) on combat system
If any of this sounds particularly helpful to you (@OliWhail@eaglejarl@Velorien) let me know and I'll proritize it over the other coding tasks.
it's easy and intuitive to use and, speaking as a QM and an author, it's fun. Writing chapters under the old rules was a complete pain in the ass. Designing seals and jutsu was a friggin' nightmare full of aggravation and worry. The new Fated to Die rules (hat tip to @Cariyaga for the name) give us a framework for designing things. It'll never be perfect because magic powers are inherently hard to put in a framework and hard to balance, but at least this gives us something to work with. More importantly, the Aspect system *helps* with the writing instead of getting in the way. Based on a couple of data points (my chapter and @Velorien's) it looks like there are more combat rounds in each fight, but it still took me half the time to work out that Sasuke et al fight than it would have under the old system.
I would also throw out, based on earlier discussion, the idea of grouping Jutsu into categories of some kind, because I think that does the best job of balancing them against the pure combat abilites - otherwise, mechanically, there's no incentive to learn more than one attack Jutsu, but if "Water Jutsu" is a skill (as opposed to Water Whip, Water Bullet, etc) that seems fair across from "Punching" "Throwing" etc. Then jutsu are generally more powerful, but always require Chakra in a way mundane attacks don't. Heck, "Combat Jutsu" would probably be fine as a skill unto itself.
Declare previous stuff regarding Chakra Boost was more metaphorical, refers to an adrenaline-like rush being a ninja in combat brings, and toss it as a distinctive mechanic.
My suggestion: change chakra boosting to be the re-roll mechanic and have it cost chakra points instead of FP. Unlike the problem that @Velorien noted below, this does make sense as something chakra boosting would affect and serves to decrease the impact of FP.
Bring in the Fate Skill Columns in the sense of the Scaled-Down Checks - ie, can only have at many skills in the 30s as you have in the 20s, as many in the 20s as you have in the 10s, etc. You'd probably have to reduce the XP multiplier, so you're not getting too badly double-dinged on high skills.
I'm not sure if you've already thought of this, but a really neat solution to the hyper-specialization problem is to say that every ninja has a level based on their total experience and you can't raise any skill above your level. If you use, for example , level = 5 + sqrt(XP/6) this has the effect that you can only have 1/12th of your total XP in any one skill, this value chosen because it means a ninja with around Zabuza's XP totals (@Radvic estimatd 27,000XP) being capped at around 70 (72 to be exact) in their highest skill which is what Zabuza's build in the interlude more or less displayed (I assume that while good, he isn't completely hyperspecialised). The nice thing about this is that by changing the multiplier (here: 1/6) you can customise the level of specialisation to what you're going for in this setting.
x = Experience
n = skill level
it costs n(n+1)/2 XP to put a skill at level n (citation):
x = (n2+n) / 2
therefore to find the max level for a given amount of experience we rearrange to get n in terms of x (link)
n = 1/2 (sqrt(8 x + 1) - 1)
if we want to put find the level cap which equates to 1/12th of total experience, we divide x by 12:
n_cap = 1/2 (sqrt(8 (x/12) + 1) - 1)
we ignore all the fiddly bits because we don't need it to be exact, just to scale properly
n_cap ≃ 1/2(sqrt(2x/3))
move the factor of 1/2 into the sqrt:
n_cap ≃ sqrt(x/6)
and then we add 5 so that you don't run into this problem right away when you try to spend your first XP and tada:
n_cap ≃ sqrt(x/6) + 5
E: @Radvic too since you were looking into the specialization problem.
The problem with this is that chakra and Aspects in no way go together. Chakra is a thing you can spend on physical activities. How do you take advantage of the dark to sneak using chakra? How do you use your knowledge of somebody's psychological weaknesses to convince them of your case using chakra? How do you exploit Kagome's assistance to make a solid security system using chakra?
@Velorien
This is, unfortunately, true. Could you use chakra for tagging combat aspects, and FP for tagging aspects for non direct-combat rolls maybe? I just feel like chakra should be the #1 combat resource (as it has been to date, and makes sense for the narutoverse), and using FP as such an integral role in combat breaks that.
Also for what it's worth, as un-simulationalist as using CP to tag non-combat aspects is, it's still arguably more simulationist than FP. It still makes more sense to say, for example, that you can use your ninja techniques and chakra control of your body to sneak nigh-silently in the dark, than to say that Hazou putting his foot in his mouth and suggesting ways of optimising Mari's awful bed-hair in accordance with his concepts the morning before has given him extra capacity to sneak in the dark on a mission the next day.
In fact, saying CP for combat aspects and FP for non-combat aspects does have a bit of a Watsonian ring to it: the more at peace with yourself you are, the easier it is to remain calm whilst sneaking or to convincingly argue against someone else and notice their psychological weaknesses. And for combat, spending CP in combat allows you the extra speed and precision to take advantage of openings and tag aspects.
E: Just saw what @Radvic posted, just chiming in to say I agree with mostly everything he laid out, although slightly less so with his conclusion that the third route of modifying the system to make it fit better is as problematic as he portrays it being.
It's too bad Jiraiya isn't free to train us personally, I'm pretty sure that would bump us up a few notches given how many S-rankers he's personally trained...
Not quite sure that Jiraiya's training someone necessarily makes him an S-ranker, or closer to being an S-ranker than he otherwise would be.
Maybe Jiraiya's just trained a lot of people, and some of those people became S-rankers because they were always going to become S-rankers? How do we know that the ratio of Jiraiya-trained S-rankers to Jiraiya-trainees is any different from the ratio of S-rankers to ninja in general?
Even if it is, maybe he's good at identifying talent, and trained them because they were anyways more likely to be S-rankers than the average ninja? Or maybe he was able to steer more village resources towards keeping his students alive, which necessarily made it possible for more of them to become S-rankers than would otherwise have been the case?
What I'm saying is that, even given the statement "Jiraiya's trained a lot of S-rankers," there are lots of alternatives that we should consider before jumping on "Training from Jiraiya makes you more likely to become an S-ranker."
Not quite sure that Jiraiya's training someone necessarily makes him an S-ranker, or closer to being an S-ranker than he otherwise would be.
Maybe Jiraiya's just trained a lot of people, and some of those people became S-rankers because they were always going to become S-rankers? How do we know that the ratio of Jiraiya-trained S-rankers to Jiraiya-trainees is any different from the ratio of S-rankers to ninja in general?
Even if it is, maybe he's good at identifying talent, and trained them because they were anyways more likely to be S-rankers than the average ninja? Or maybe he was able to steer more village resources towards keeping his students alive, which necessarily made it possible for more of them to become S-rankers than would otherwise have been the case?
What I'm saying is that, even given the statement "Jiraiya's trained a lot of S-rankers," there are explanations we should consider before jumping on "Training from Jiraiya makes you more likely to become an S-ranker."
If everyone someone teaches becomes S-rank, that increases the probability that they are good at teaching. It also, separately, increases the probability that he's got an eye for talent. The "village resources" thing does not hold water, though, unless Nagato and Konan were in Leaf for a time.
And I don't see any other S-rankers that we have access to that could train us.
@Radvic and @ting
Thank you both for those thoughtful posts. I'm climbing into bed so can't respond in depth, but I'll note that I spoke at some length with @Velorien about this today, and we should be able to respond in more detail tomorrow, once @OliWhail has had a chance to chime in.
What I'm saying is that, even given the statement "Jiraiya's trained a lot of S-rankers," there are lots of alternatives that we should consider before jumping on "Training from Jiraiya makes you more likely to become an S-ranker."
Pedantry: I note that none of the options you suggest are inconsistent with the idea that being trained by Jiraiya makes you more likely to become S-rank. If he's training you, your expected life span is longer because you're living in Leaf (safe place), and have Jiraiya as a protector. You also have access to the Hokage's resources for money, other teachers, etc. He could be a horrible teacher but working with him would still make you more likely to become S-rank.
/pedantry
You know, given how the xp rewards are determined, I don't think being trained by Jiraya would make our ascent to S-rank easier. I mean we could probably get a hefty sum of xp by formulating a plan that would actually make Jiraya spare time to personally train us, but the amount of xp we would be awarded later would still depend on the quality of further plans, and not the quality of our trainer.
Plus knowing the QMs they would probably figure out a way in which it would bite us in our collective ass (because Jiraya training us means Jiraya spending less time doing important Hokage stuff, meaning he is more likely to make mistakes there, meaning there is a greater chance a mistake that bites us occurs).
You know, given how the xp rewards are determined, I don't think being trained by Jiraya would make our ascent to S-rank easier. I mean we could probably get a hefty sum of xp by formulating a plan that would actually make Jiraya spare time to personally train us, but the amount of xp we would be awarded later would still depend on the quality of further plans, and not the quality of our trainer.
Plus knowing the QMs they would probably figure out a way in which it would bite us in our collective ass (because Jiraya training us means Jiraya spending less time doing important Hokage stuff, meaning he is more likely to make mistakes there, meaning there is a greater chance a mistake that bites us occurs).
...Wait. We really need to talk to him about Shadow Clones, both for Noburi to abuse (with a bunch of "pet" chakra beasts) and for Noburi to provide Jiraiya with the means to train us personally.
I have a sneaking suspicion that Shadow Clone's ability to supercharge training has been nerfed from canon (while only jinchuuriki would be able to manage the army-of-clones method, a single clone doubling your efforts for a day - heck, even a few hours - would still be a massive advantage).
Personally, I favour the tweak that you get the memories, but not the experiences - so it'd be ok for book research, but useless for combat or jutsu training. Leaves it a useful scouting jutsu with occasional combat applications. Also, still useful for leaving a clone to supervise other people's training.
I have a sneaking suspicion that Shadow Clone's ability to supercharge training has been nerfed from canon (while only jinchuuriki would be able to manage the army-of-clones method, a single clone doubling your efforts for a day - heck, even a few hours - would still be a massive advantage).
Personally, I favour the tweak that you get the memories, but not the experiences - so it'd be ok for book research, but useless for combat or jutsu training. Leaves it a useful scouting jutsu with occasional combat applications. Also, still useful for leaving a clone to supervise other people's training.
Naruto's capture disproves this theory, as far as I'm aware -- one of his clones got genjutsu'd, all of them cried out in pain, and he was captured as such.
Naruto's capture disproves this theory, as far as I'm aware -- one of his clones got genjutsu'd, all of them cried out in pain, and he was captured as such.
I'm pretty sure that was Pein using his BS through the chakra link between the all of clones and the original, which I don't think requires changes between canon and nerfed version of Shadow Clone.
I'm pretty sure that was Pein using his BS through the chakra link between the all of clones and the original, which I don't think requires changes between canon and nerfed version of Shadow Clone.
Pedantry: I note that none of the options you suggest are inconsistent with the idea that being trained by Jiraiya makes you more likely to become S-rank. If he's training you, your expected life span is longer because you're living in Leaf (safe place), and have Jiraiya as a protector. You also have access to the Hokage's resources for money, other teachers, etc. He could be a horrible teacher but working with him would still make you more likely to become S-rank.
/pedantry
Sure, not inconsistent. It could be he's a good teacher AND he's got an eye for talent AND being under his protection increases the chances for survival and therefore the chances for maximum growth in the ninja arts. But it's also possible (for example) that he's just got an eye for talent, but doesn't actually lend anything to that talent's development--in which case, well, Hazo's either got talent or not, and Jiraiya doesn't matter. Or it's possible that he's taught lots of ninjas, most of whom died, and of the minority that survived, a few became S-rankers, but no more of the total number of his students than you would have expected by just extrapolating from the base rate of all ninjas.
Sure, not inconsistent. It could be he's a good teacher AND he's got an eye for talent AND being under his protection increases the chances for survival and therefore the chances for maximum growth in the ninja arts. But it's also possible (for example) that he's just got an eye for talent, but doesn't actually lend anything to that talent's development--in which case, well, Hazo's either got talent or not, and Jiraiya doesn't matter. Or it's possible that he's taught lots of ninjas, most of whom died, and of the minority that survived, a few became S-rankers, but no more of the total number of his students than you would have expected by just extrapolating from the base rate of all ninjas.
Sure, not inconsistent. It could be he's a good teacher AND he's got an eye for talent AND being under his protection increases the chances for survival and therefore the chances for maximum growth in the ninja arts. But it's also possible (for example) that he's just got an eye for talent, but doesn't actually lend anything to that talent's development--in which case, well, Hazo's either got talent or not, and Jiraiya doesn't matter. Or it's possible that he's taught lots of ninjas, most of whom died, and of the minority that survived, a few became S-rankers, but no more of the total number of his students than you would have expected by just extrapolating from the base rate of all ninjas.
The probability that Jiraiya is a competent teacher is higher than the base rate of a ninja of his competence, given that he has trained not just one, but multiple, S-rankers. Sure, there could be mitigating factors, and that we don't know that has to factor into our probability assessment as things to consider, but there is no evidence that I am aware of to support that hypothesis.
After learning more about FATE, I think the FATE rules as written have significant friction with a simulationist approach to gaming, given MfD's context as a forum game. This *can* be fixed by excessive QM rulings and arbitration on a case by case basis, but will require significant effort from the QMs (especially re: Fate Points, Aspects, and Zones) and hide significant mechanics from the players (e.g. "can we use our aspects in this combat?" "How many Fate Points do we expect to get?" "How short of a plan can we get away with while still getting a Fate Point?"). In an in person role playing session these problems would be fairly easily solved due to real time interaction and player-QM feedback, as players could take a more active role mid-combat for instance. However, players only interactions with QMs are *outside* of combat, and active scenes, rather than during those times, making MfD a significantly different situation from a traditional role playing situation.
The FATE system adds significant new data players would want to account for mid-update, as players would now need to estimate mechanical things like "will the QMs will let us use all or most of the aspect usage we want," "Can we spend a Fate Point here?" "Will this action get us a Fate Point?" "Can we manufacture a situation so that X Aspect triggers?" "Will the QMs give us a compel in this situation?" etc. From the QM side, I think this will cause significantly more work as QMs need to arbitrate new things including: if an Aspect could be used, given it has effects on the simulation for purely mechanical reasons; what the players meant with all the Aspect triggers they provided; how enemies would use their Aspects etc. Additionally, as this adds a layer of mystery between QM and player interaction, I believe this will lead to increased miscommunication, and thus more sorrow, sadness, and salt amongst both players and QMs as players interpret QMs as 'having it out for them' and QMs are increasingly nagged by players about things like "Why didn't my aspect work in this situation? Clearly I would have saved my Fate Point if I'd known the first combat roll went that way!" and other nags. So, I think that the FATE system itself is not a good system for a simulationist quest at its core, and that the efforts to force it into that state will cause significant stress and disention between QMs and players. As the rules are much more free-flowing, they are also much more open to misinterpretation between players and QMs, which is a very significant concern in MfD.
Not denying that this is an issue. However, what it comes down to is that the QMs were forced to make a choice between a crunch-heavy system (which is convenient for simulationism and easy for players to predict) and a crunch-light system (which is less simulationist but more flexible and less taxing on the QMs). We looked at options for the former, including HERO and Mutants & Masterminds, and concluded that moving from one crunch-heavy system to another wouldn't actually solve our main problems. It would give us a more balanced ruleset, that much is true, but then we'd still have to unbalance it ourselves in order to fit MfD's needs (for example, M&M and DF are both balanced around low lethality, but DF has far fewer rules features which directly rely on it), and more importantly we would still have a gazillion important things to keep track of.
The new system will have different optimizations than the old one. If we assume all the currently broken parts (esp. specialization & ninjutsu) are fixed and Aspects/simulationist concerns don't cause problems, optimal builds will still look different. I can see three broad ways to resolve this. First, we could change the basics of "how do ninja work and/or divide labor amongst themselves" from the assumptions of the story up to this point (especially with how specialized high level ninja/leaders will be, how much civilians would handily defeat ninja at diplomacy, and how ninja should self-select for people with the appropriate aspects). Second, we could just say "the world isn't different, there's just a secret path to power that nobody takes because they don't have explicit access to the mechanics of the world and this hasn't impacted social evolution because reasons," and then accept that the players will eventually manipulate their character and those they can influence onto those paths, or plead with the playerbase to not build optimally. Third, we can painstakingly edit the new mechanics to fit the old world's results (by doing things like messing with the relative XP cost curve for each skill).
Of the three options, I think we are currently pursuing the third, which makes sense from a simulation-first approach (though Sakura's specialization suggests we're considering the first). However, I am unconvinced that the solutions reached by pursuing this will leave the same optimization routes as existed in the old system. I also suspect the computational load of assigning odd aspects to the skill and XP curve will make it significantly more difficult for QMs to build new characters (ease of character building being one of the reasons I thought we were switching to this system). This brings me to my final and most relevant point.
I'm having trouble with the gist of your argument here, because you say "if we assume all the currently broken parts [including specialisation] are fixed", but then go on to discuss the implications of hyper-specialisation as if they're not. As far as the QMs are concerned, excessive specialisation is both mechanically problematic (for obvious reasons) and doesn't fit the world as we've portrayed it. Note, in the context of Sakura, that genin will be the most specialised of ninja under any conditions because they simply lack the XP to diversify.
Additionally, I suspect that the strain of a 20 ninja combat will actually be similar, if not higher than in the old system. It appears we will be porting all the same combat options Hazou and team had into the new system, effectively keeping the same level of complexity we had previously, while adding in Aspects, Weapons levels, Ninjutsu levels, stress tracks, consequences, and fate points. This seems like the system will actually be *more* difficult to simulate combat with than the previous system.''
I don't think this is entirely accurate. Aspects are a way of mechanically modelling situational advantages, which we didn't have before. They reduce QM strain because they mean we don't have to think about situational modifiers so much. It's just "Are there Aspects that could apply? Is the currently active character going to spend an FP on one? Is the currently active character going to create a new one to advantage themselves instead of using their obvious combat option?" Weapons levels simplify weapons in the same way. We never have to think about damage numbers again, and can instantly model the likes of pangolin gauntlets just by shoving them into a damage category. The ninjutsu mechanics let us design new techniques systematically, which is simply a thing we did not have under Augjev (seriously, each and every new ninjutsu was a headache like you wouldn't believe, with no reason whatsoever to believe that our final design would be balanced). Stress tracks and consequences are more complicated than the old A-B-C injury system, I'll grant you, but hopefully not so much so that we can't handle them, and they do have advantages (stress clearing quickly makes minor injuries easier to simulate, and consequences turn injuries into narrative tools). As for FP, those are very much a double-edged sword, and I'd be open to further discussion on balancing/replacing them.
So, one of the biggest concerns I've seen put forward by QMs is the difficulty of building new things (characters, ninjutsu, seals, etc), and actually using the rules (both in the old and new systems). There are also currently concerns with XP scaling, and exploits there. I have a fair amount of capability in modeling and simulating, and believe I can build tools which would make QM lives significantly easier, either for formulating the new mechanics or making mechanics easier to run. I would like to make tools which reduce QM strain. Here are a few of the tools I believe I can construct:
I could make an auto-NPC-character generation tool, initial proposed workings as follows:
Inputs:
---------
Name - string with the name of the character
XP_available - integer value with amount of XP a ninja has
Specialization_factor - float between 0 and 1 describing how specialized the character is into their specialty, with 1 being "never spent any XP outside of making them do primary task better" and 0 being "evenly spent XP across all available techniques and abilities.
Specializations - list of type variable, with types of "Taijutsu" "Weapons" "Ninjutsu" "Stealth" "Face" "Utility" and/or "Civilian" (I'd offer Genjutsu, but I've never understood how it works, so would need to have a fair amount of back and forth with someone who did before I could offer that)
jutsu_or_techniques_available - defaults to "fudge_jutsu_or_technique" where the bonuses are based off a standardized "combat effectiveness" determined by simulation data, otherwise accepts a list of jutsu the ninja can train.
Outputs:
-----------
Character sheet for desired character as a <character_name>.csv
I could make a jutsu effect simulation tool to help QMs balance jutsu they design with proposed initial workings as follows:
Inputs:
---------
jutsu - function describing how the proposed combat technique interacts with combat
wielder_list - defaults to a list of auto-generated characters to each gain the technique and fight with it, can have specific character data input if desired.
opponent_list - defaults to wielder_list
Number_of_combats - integer determining how many times each pair fights with and without the jutsu. Defaults to 100
Outputs:
-----------
Analytics of "how justu impacted combat" including:
Overall_rating: a single number providing an estimate of "how much of a difference did this jutsu do overall." Provides a general recommendation on how much the skill should cost.
Survivability_rating: How many rounds did this extend the combat on average
Win_cases: which opponent pairs did this jutsu make a significant difference?
Average_dice_bonus_per_level: how many dice did the jutsu add to each individual roll in a character who had it compared to one who didn't per level?
Chakra_usage: what percentage of chakra was spent on this technique during combat
Group_fight_ability: How much did this technique help in group-fights?
Growth rate: How does this technique impact character growth over various periods of time (e.g. impact of Pangolin training jutsu)
other-metrics-as-desired: Pretty much any data metric which someone thinks could be helpful to determine how OP a technique is, likely including box-plots, histograms, and other Exploratory Data Analysis tools for quickly visualizing impact.
I could also build a general combat simulation asset tool, designed to help QMs simulate combat step by step, providing descriptions of the different options available to each character and the expected dice rolls of their available actions
Inputs:
---------
number of sides - how many sides there are in the combat
for each side: combatants - a list of csv files with character sheet data
Outputs:
-----------
State of the battle after each action (including chakra levels, injuries, characters up on each side, but probably not relative character location)
An interactive prompt describing what character's turn it is, their available options (And projected rolls for those options), and an input for what action they take, moving on to the next character in initiative after each turn.
I'm pretty confident I could make the above tools for whatever system we wind up using (though I don't at present understand the new system enough to automate it). As it stands, my above analysis explains why I think the old system is the best system to use (if we can solve QM strain concerns, which I think this would do). My current plan is to finish the general combat simulation tool I'd started for the old rules, unless the QMs give me a different coding project they'd prefer I work on. Other potential tools I can work on (if the QMs ask me to) related to the system changes include but are not limited to:
A data visualization tool analyzing the relative impacts of Aspects, skill levels, and tools (e.g. Macerators) on meeting TNs
A skill cost function for each skill mapping relative costs from the old system onto the new system
An analysis of the impacts of various rule addons (e.g. Ninja Hands) on combat system
If any of this sounds particularly helpful to you (@OliWhail@eaglejarl@Velorien) let me know and I'll proritize it over the other coding tasks.
This is pretty amazing, but I am incapable of generating a mental model of how it'll measure up against conventional combat handling. If I were to ask for this kind of help, it would definitely be after a little time getting my hands dirty with the new FtD rules.
I'm honestly confused by why boiling ninjutsu down into a single skill would be a good thing. It makes any kind of ninjutsu diversification purely cosmetic (meaning the players won't bother) and, to my mind, removes half of this quest's point - to preserve the Narutoverse's battle wizards theming while remaking the worldbuilding in accordance with our shared values. What kind of ninjutsu will it actually leave?
I'm not sure if you've already thought of this, but a really neat solution to the hyper-specialization problem is to say that every ninja has a level based on their total experience and you can't raise any skill above your level. If you use, for example , level = 5 + sqrt(XP/6) this has the effect that you can only have 1/12th of your total XP in any one skill, this value chosen because it means a ninja with around Zabuza's XP totals (@Radvic estimatd 27,000XP) being capped at around 70 (72 to be exact) in their highest skill which is what Zabuza's build in the interlude more or less displayed (I assume that while good, he isn't completely hyperspecialised). The nice thing about this is that by changing the multiplier (here: 1/6) you can customise the level of specialisation to what you're going for in this setting.
x = Experience
n = skill level
it costs n(n+1)/2 XP to put a skill at level n (citation):
x = (n2+n) / 2
therefore to find the max level for a given amount of experience we rearrange to get n in terms of x (link)
n = 1/2 (sqrt(8 x + 1) - 1)
if we want to put find the level cap which equates to 1/12th of total experience, we divide x by 12:
n_cap = 1/2 (sqrt(8 (x/12) + 1) - 1)
we ignore all the fiddly bits because we don't need it to be exact, just to scale properly
n_cap ≃ 1/2(sqrt(2x/3))
move the factor of 1/2 into the sqrt:
n_cap ≃ sqrt(x/6)
and then we add 5 so that you don't run into this problem right away when you try to spend your first XP and tada:
n_cap ≃ sqrt(x/6) + 5
E: @Radvic too since you were looking into the specialization problem.
@Velorien
This is, unfortunately, true. Could you use chakra for tagging combat aspects, and FP for tagging aspects for non direct-combat rolls maybe? I just feel like chakra should be the #1 combat resource (as it has been to date, and makes sense for the narutoverse), and using FP as such an integral role in combat breaks that.
Also for what it's worth, as un-simulationalist as using CP to tag non-combat aspects is, it's still arguably more simulationist than FP. It still makes more sense to say, for example, that you can use your ninja techniques and chakra control of your body to sneak nigh-silently in the dark, than to say that Hazou putting his foot in his mouth and suggesting ways of optimising Mari's awful bed-hair in accordance with his concepts the morning before has given him extra capacity to sneak in the dark on a mission the next day.
In fact, saying CP for combat aspects and FP for non-combat aspects does have a bit of a Watsonian ring to it: the more at peace with yourself you are, the easier it is to remain calm whilst sneaking or to convincingly argue against someone else and notice their psychological weaknesses. And for combat, spending CP in combat allows you the extra speed and precision to take advantage of openings and tag aspects.
E: Just saw what @Radvic posted, just chiming in to say I agree with mostly everything he laid out, although slightly less so with his conclusion that the third route of modifying the system to make it fit better is as problematic as he portrays it being.
You make a good case, but I'm still reluctant to empower chakra even further, both for simulationism/theming reasons and for balance reasons (the Wakahisa do not need to be even more physical gods, and at the other end of the spectrum it screws high-skill, low-chakra ninja like Kakashi). And I must admit that your Watsonian arguments don't at all convince me - FP are an unabashedly narrativistic tool that simulates raw luck/willpower/intuition (which, for all its many flaws, is very Narutoverse-thematic), and if they are to be changed, attempting to justify them into being simulationist is not the way to do so.
The probability that Jiraiya is a competent teacher is higher than the base rate of a ninja of his competence, given that he has trained not just one, but multiple, S-rankers. Sure, there could be mitigating factors, and that we don't know that has to factor into our probability assessment as things to consider, but there is no evidence that I am aware of to support that hypothesis.
It is worth noting that Nagato had history's most powerful Bloodline Limit, Konan had a unique style which resembled nothing Jiraiya was capable of, Yahiko was never portrayed as an S-ranker, and Minato was acknowledged as an all-round genius whose signature technique was an adaptation of something Tobirama invented. Not saying that Jiraiya's tutelage didn't make a big difference in their lives, but those mitigating factors are humongous.
Incidentally, compare and contrast Naruto - he trained with Jiraiya one-on-one for three solid years, yet Jiraiya's only contribution to Naruto's fighting style was the Rasengan (which wasn't his invention in the first place). He had nothing to do with shadow clones, Kurama, Rasen-Shuriken or Sage Mode, and while Naruto could hold his own in a fight, his individual combat skills (e.g. Taijutsu) were unremarkable at best and his combat style mostly relied on having the enemy massacre his clones by the dozen until they created an opening.
Edit: He did teach Naruto summoning, so there's that. But that's not really a feature of Jiraiya being amazing so much as Jiraiya being a summoner and seeing the potential in Naruto's huge chakra reserves. Also, need I remind you how he got Naruto to master summoning?
Edit 2: A lot of people seem to be basing estimates of a new-system jōnin on Zabuza from Shikigami's Last Stand. Please bear in mind that those numbers were pulled out of thin air by Yukino based on her idea of Zabuza's abilities and were in no way modelled by any QMs to represent anything.
Incidentally, compare and contrast Naruto - he trained with Jiraiya one-on-one for three solid years, yet Jiraiya's only contribution to Naruto's fighting style was the Rasengan (which wasn't his invention in the first place). He had nothing to do with shadow clones, Kurama, Rasen-Shuriken or Sage Mode, and while Naruto could hold his own in a fight, his individual combat skills (e.g. Taijutsu) were unremarkable at best and his combat style mostly relied on having the enemy massacre his clones by the dozen until they created an opening.
Edit: He did teach Naruto summoning, so there's that. But that's not really a feature of Jiraiya being amazing so much as Jiraiya being a summoner and seeing the potential in Naruto's huge chakra reserves. Also, need I remind you how he got Naruto to master summoning?
He taught Naruto how to use the Kyuubi's chakra, until Naruto went to the 4-tailed state and nearly killed the guy. And also remedial training like genjutsu dispel (holy shit Naruto).
I saw a pretty good analysis once that after Jiraiya's three years of training Naruto's base fighting ability improved to the point where his taijutsu was amazing, not "competent at best", and other baseline skills were similarly vastly improved.
Which seems pretty logical as a training goal to me. If Naruto's primary strategy will always be mass shadow clones, then each incremental improvement in his fundamentals is vastly magnified in effect because each clone can fight better. Concentrating on that will be far more useful than fancy tricks.
I saw a pretty good analysis once that after Jiraiya's three years of training Naruto's base fighting ability improved to the point where his taijutsu was amazing, not "competent at best", and other baseline skills were similarly vastly improved.
Which seems pretty logical as a training goal to me. If Naruto's primary strategy will always be mass shadow clones, then each incremental improvement in his fundamentals is vastly magnified in effect because each clone can fight better. Concentrating on that will be far more useful than fancy tricks.
I don't suppose you can remember where you saw it? I'll concede that Naruto's base fighting ability improved significantly (given he started out as a standard genin), but if his fundamentals were amazing, his clones wouldn't get slaughtered by the dozen in every single fight.
Besides, Naruto possibly has the most chakra of any being in the world. He should be learning fancy tricks, and then having a thousand clones spam them simultaneously, instead of single-minded focus on taijutsu + Rasengan.
I don't suppose you can remember where you saw it? I'll concede that Naruto's base fighting ability improved significantly (given he started out as a standard genin), but if his fundamentals were amazing, his clones wouldn't get slaughtered by the dozen in every single fight.
Besides, Naruto possibly has the most chakra of any being in the world. He should be learning fancy tricks, and then having a thousand clones spam them simultaneously, instead of single-minded focus on taijutsu + Rasengan.
It was in some Spacebattles discussion thread so I don't have much hope, but maybe the search function can find it for me.
As for the clones, let's remember this "rocket tag" business is more your invention for Marked for Death than something the series really felt bound by. Clones get popped a lot because they take hits that a non-clone would simply shrug off.
