PSA: Looking for input on calibrating the 'fun / simulationism' spectrum

We've recently gotten feedback from multiple people regarding problems in the quest. It's coming from multiple people with only some overlap, so we're still a little fuzzy on the exact list of problems, but one that we've heard multiple times is that there is a disconnect between how the players model the world and how the QMs model the world. Combining that with other feedback, we are currently interpreting this to mean that there is a sense that the QMs are letting the simulation interfere with having fun. We'd like to talk about that a little, and we'd like feedback on how to make things more fun for everyone – after all, this is a collaboration between the players and the QMs and everyone should have agency and fun in the outcome. If we've misunderstood the issue(s), please clarify for us.

Bear with us, because this post is a bit long.

In our view, the primary value proposition of MfD has always been that it's hardcore simulationist. In most narrativist quests, the players can be guaranteed that their avatar will ultimately win – maybe there will be setbacks or challenges, but plot armor will save the day and success will eventually happen. That's fun but it also means that there aren't any real stakes. Victory will happen eventually.[Shameless plug departing from the official nature of this post: the whole 'narrativist = lower stakes' thing can be seen in my light and fluffy Dungeon Crawler You!​ quest where I've explicitly stated that plot armor is invulnerable for one of Taylor and very strong for the rest of the team. Also, I've got about half the next chapter written.]

Marked for Death is different from those narrativist quests. It's like that Dwarf Fortress meme: succeeding in our world isn't assured, so when it happens it feels earned, and it feels epic. On the other hand, it can also be super frustrating.

We would like some advice on how to fix the current frustration so that everyone can enjoy themselves and feel like they are making significant choices and getting what they want out of the quest. To that end, let us peel back the curtain a bit on how decisions are made:

The QMs have identified two categories of simulation. The first is rules-based situations; well-defined things with significant and immediate narrative consequences. "Does Hazō land a punch / get punched?" falls into this category, and we feel strongly that the dice should fall where they may.

The second category is more vague. It's things that aren't explicitly covered by rules, especially where there's a wide variety of plausible answers. Examples would be "how many jōnin-level summons should Hazō be able to recruit for this battle?" It can be argued in many directions depending on how various factors are weighted – Dog is tens of thousands, so maybe there's a lot of combat jōnin. Dog has been at (relative) peace for a long time, so there hasn't been much reason for most people to heavily train for combat, so maybe there's only a few combat jōnin. There's a war going on, so maybe there were only a few but the number is growing, or maybe a lot of the jōnin are on medical stand-down because of injuries incurred during the war. The weaker our model of what's going on, the more room there is for subjective judgement.

The magic system falls heavily into this second category. "How hard should <technique / seal / rune> be?" isn't well defined, hence why it takes us so long to spec them out.

Ultimately, our answers to these questions work the same way most of the time: we model the world-state as best we can, choose a distribution of possible answers, and roll. There are some cases where we simply say "Uh, I dunno…maybe that rune is TN40? Feels right", but even there we try to model consistently. We decided that runes' area of specialty is bending natural laws, so 'create a force field' and 'accelerate time' fit in that category and are comparatively easy but biological things like 'enlarge someone's chakra coils' does not fit and thus is difficult or impossible. Within those categories, we try to model consistently based on prior decisions but it's ultimately vibes.

We're looking for advice overall but in the interest of taking immediate action we're tweaking our approach to this second category. We'll continue to make our decisions based on the best world-model we can generate, we'll continue rolling for the answer, but after the roll we'll check to see if the answer is unnecessarily and excessively anti-fun. If we decide it is both unnecessary and excessive, we'll tweak the answer. Note: we're not promising to change the roll in every case, or even in most cases! We still want things to be challenging so the players don't feel like success is guaranteed, and our decisions are always going to be downstream of our best model of the world, so we aren't going to do anything that completely violates the worldbuilding. Examples of things we won't do include "Leaf sent 20,000 ninja to be your chakra batteries" (since Leaf only has ~1500 ninja) or "Leaf sent ~50 people but they have 10,000 CP each" (since that's not how ninja chakra reserves work except possibly for jinchūriki).

There's still discussion on our side about how exactly we'll tweak the answer if and when we decide to do so. Some options we've come up with are "choose a new answer that's relatively close" and "choose a new distribution, re-roll, and if the outcome is still bad then oh well." Input welcome on which of these seems better.

Our first example of this new policy happened for this very chapter. We chose a distribution for how many strong jōnin members of the Lightning Runner pack would be willing and able to sign up, rolled, and got the lowest possible roll, corresponding to "nobody". After talking about it a bit more we decided that this falls into the category of "unnecessarily anti-fun", because it would be fun to have at least one of the canon dogs fight alongside Hazō and there is no critical reason for the distribution we chose. In this particular case we decided to simply have Bull be the strong jōnin summon that's willing and able to fight, but in future we might do it the other way and re-distribute / re-roll.

Hopefully that all makes sense and wasn't too much. We'd appreciate feedback on what you think of the above, what issues y'all have with the quest in general, and suggestions for how to fix them.
I mulled my position over a bit, and here's my personal take.

Simulationism to me means something a bit different than it does in MfD. In my view, explicitly quantifying variability in combat and sealing matter to simulationism only and specifically because they capture a particular aspect around risk tolerance. I would go further, even, in that having visible mechanics takes away from that aspect of simulationism, though to some degree to good effect, in that I wouldn't actually want the quest to end because Hazō sealed wrong and then his head explodes.

Contrast, I don't actually care that dice were involved when deciding how many dogs were up for recruit, nor have I ever cared for mechanized socials. I care that the QMs thought about the scenario playing out and made a best effort attempt to resolve it impartially. Simulationism here really is quite detached from formalization; if the die serves any purpose to me, it's as a thinking aid for the QMs.

But doing extra die rolls isn't in itself a place of conflict. The issue comes when we have more and more interacting pieces, like sealing libraries we can't touch because they cost spoons, or an ever-larger cast of companions that are both highly busy and agentic, but that don't actually go out and agent, because it costs spoons. Then, beyond just causing bad vibes where sometimes it feels like said companions are not pulling their weight, it can hit concrete obstacles where for example someone should have actively told us something but didn't, and the solution to this is the players trying to be proactive about things in an artificially draining way, with the constant upfront sanity check meetings, because the only way players can imbibe life into an NPC is by forcing it into screentime and making it important enough to get a tier 1 simulation.

It seems to me that this equilibrium is neither good for narrative satisfaction nor good for simulation. Here are some particular ideas about how to improve this:
  • Let the players touch things that are only loosely spec'd out more, and be more just-in-time assigning them concrete mechanics. Hazō should be able to learn a set of seals before we know have figured out exactly how those seals operate mechanically and what TN it has to what stat in combat. If something occurs once in battle, it's OK to wing it; just privately note the choice you made to keep it consistent, and if we do push harder on the details at some point, flesh it out then.
  • Let the players suggest concrete ideas and outcomes from the result of other actors' efforts, and be willing to make arbitrary choices about how that resolves until it becomes the most important priority to specify. I wouldn't hate planning out Roads!!!, and I'd willingly figure out reasonable challenges along the way, how those might have been dealt with, and estimate progress and workloads. It's just there's a pretty poor cost:benefit to me doing that right now, since QMs by large don't accept that kind of input except as prompts for doing the work themselves, and the result is everything below P0 is left in spoonless limbo.
  • Where it makes things easier and doesn't spoil the core narrative, compromise by leaking OOC information that other friendly characters might be expected to act on early, such that the players can help suggest reasonable non-Hazō actions, and just ask politely that players don't directly metagame on this information. Even if the information is of the form "we aren't sure if this is happening or if Mari suspects it yet, but there might be rumors of a political tension between X and Y; you can include in plans suggestions for actions Mari might have taken if we later decide this is the case", I suspect it would help.

This is all a very Veedrac-flavored comment but hopefully it at least serves as a bit of inspiration for how a class of mitigations could look.
 
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True; there is also selection over possible MfD-world-histories going on. So it's more like "the story of one of the most interesting people in one of the more interesting possible timelines of MfD's setting".
Fair.
Selecting for a 99.9%-percentile agenty person costs bits as well, though!
Yes, agreed. My point could be paraphrased as saying this is most of your bits, including the bits saying you survive to an age in a place where you've learnt enough to agent.
Broadly, and separate from your point particularly, I think focusing deeply on "does this make statistical sense" beyond a very permissive sniff test is pointless.
I agree with this too.
 
PSA: Looking for input on calibrating the 'fun / simulationism' spectrum

In my opinion, reconciling fun with simulationism is something the QMs have done well at in general and is one of the strong points of this quest, although the most recent arc has been unusually difficult in this regard.

Simulation lag and low-versus-high res are real phenomena (with the latter being one of Hazō's unfair advantages as a protagonist), but while better strategies for dealing with such issues in particular might be good, as far as I'm concerned they do not call for a fundamental change to the quest's approach to simulationism in general.

I have no issue with occasionally picking the most fun option rather than choosing at random in situations where the existing world-simulation would consider multiple possibilities equally possible, but would prefer that the QMs model of the world not be overridden when it does suggest a particular outcome or distribution of outcomes.

Very enjoyable reaction posts, both of you. Please take +1 XP each to a character of your choice (chosen randomly by 1d3 among the PCs if you do not pick within 24 hours) as thanks.
Hazō, please.
 
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Also, is Kurenai insisting on fighting? I think I would prefer to use Mari for genjutsu and have her chakra. Unless Mari thinks Kurenai is a superior combatant (which doesn't make sense IMO Mari has had years of FOOM and IIRC they're approximately the same age)

More distinct people fighting means less vulnerability to tsukiyomi or any other effects that might mass-pop shadow clones. Not convinced it's worth it though.

Did Orochimaru and Tsunade indicate how many refilled SCs they'd be willing to run?

They each had about 20 in the Ravening of Dragons, so it'll probably be close to that as an upper bound?

How much of that would be leftover after Tsunade, Oro(and Mari?) make their preferred number of clones, and all available bosses and elites are summoned?

Back-of-the-envelope math suggests 7000-12000 for Tsunade, Oro, Mari and bosses. Not sure about the elite summons. Runes will run through a huge amount as well, so I don't think we can plan on much left over.
 
We have plenty of "Hidden Lore":
  • Investigating the Eaters lead to,
    • The Great Seal and Runecrafting
    • The Arachnid Scroll
    • Seeing Enma claiming a piece of the 7th Path
  • Talking with the Toads
    • Confirmed more about the Five
    • Mentioned additional allies and possible theories about them (Toad Chapter)
    • That the 7th Path is connected to the Animal Path
    • Training
  • Talk with Kamehameha
  • Shikamarus stories and warnings
  • Ami being Ami,
    • The secret Dungeon
  • Cannai's Poem,
    • Best Doggo of all Doggos
  • Enma,
    • Knowledge of a bunch of Scrolls
    • The Porcupine scroll location
    • Meeting Akatsuki and even creating The Rift
  • Orochimaru
    • Two interesting caves
  • Isan's Lore
  • I guess our trip not Nagi and the Seedling?
  • edit: Bear summoner friend!
    • Even more Scroll information!
  • etc, sorry I a mean @faflec
We have a lot of "Hiden Lore" information but the focus while being inside Leaf was a lot on FOOM and Sealing research for good reasons.

We can't have everything without leaving, Itachi on the other hand had the last few years as an S-Rank to search for stuff while already having been groomed to be a Hokage.

Pretty sure there are still a bunch of "lore caches" around.
 
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Talk with Kamehameha
In fairness, this one raises a different problem. Yes, Hazō-in-character has that, but we the players don't.

Actually giving the players lore requires a lot of work, so even when it's the result of something like the Conclave which the players spent significant effort causing, we might not get it.
Good to know, but it is also extremely spoon-costly. Since interludes are traditionally things we do when low on time/spoons, it is in an awkward position (and there are also some heavy cosmological questions in there which would require triple QM signoff).
 
One example that I think really illustrates the high-res vs low-res issue is the Mari problem. At the start of the quest with her in her early twenties she was already an elite jounin. Which means that she should have essentially been a peer to people like Kakashi, Gai and Asuma. We then go out and adventure and add tons of new jutsu and seals to her kit. She gets to FOOM for a year. But relative to her peers it is never shown that she has in any way increased in power. Every additional powerup she got through our hard work and being under the high-res simulation just got added to every other elite jounin as a low-res thing that yeah off course they have that.
 
But stuff like that... I mean, there's a certain degree to which that is in itself unfair to us, because we aren't 20 years in the future in game; we don't have that backlog of filled-in backstory-based XP and jutsu.
I don't understand what anyone, QMs or players, is supposed to do about any of that. Like, should we get buffed for it? Beyond our already ungodly high XP rate? Does anyone want that?

Also, the random ninja don't need to roll to die, because plenty other random unnamed ninja already died in their place. When we encounter a random Rock ninja border patrol, the question isn't "how did these ninja obtain their arsenal of tricks" but "did Rock produce enough ninja for one of them to survived long enough to have an arsenal of roughly that strength". It's just like in the real world. Becoming rich and successful without inheriting it all is really hard. Yet there will always be a few rich and successful people.

So -- the biggest thing, for me, that I'd like to see changed is...

I don't actually care that much about player agency? I mean, okay, that's not entirely fair -- I care about it a fair bit. But it has been discussed in the past that you don't have the NPCs that we go to have... ideas... and such (not entirely acurate, just take that as approximate), because you want us to own our wins. And that really hurts how reasonable the setting feels.
Keep in mind that to the QMs giving us challenges and interacting with our solutions is part of the appeal. And also that coming up with challenges and managing to correctly simulate which smart NPCs would and would not know the solution when oneself might have thought of the solution over the course of having to first invent the problem us really hard. Like, if things were fair then there would be a couple of us players to simulate Kei's ideas, and the same for Noburi, Mari, Kagome and even Yuno. Instead there's three people for everybody, all of whom have to keep their own behind the curtains knowledge from polluting the NPCs because knowledge and intelligence is really hard to keep apart in everyday thought.
I don't think it really passes the smell test that these lore caches remained undisturbed for ~950 years and we only just missed them to the previous generation.
The Warring Clans period would have been the time where such caches would have been set up more than consumed. It's the Hidden Village period which birthed highly supported ninja that can go out and explore/destroy secret orders. Now the hidden caches they themselves set up are behind the walls of major capital cities instead of being behind personal hideouts.
if you ran all of our opposition at high resolution for their whole backstory, most of them would be dead
Most of them are dead. What were the genin mortality rates again?

And if the QMs got like, a large amount of seed money and created a simulation that randomly generates ninja builds and then puts them through a variety of random challenges to see what kinds of realistic jōnin (given the rules of the game) it spits out, do you think those jōnin would be easier or harder to face down?
Think about it as a selection effect on the viewpoints we follow, not as a probability-warping effect on the world.

Story protagonists are not randomly sampled from the set of all possible observers in the multiverse, the selection is skewed towards interesting viewpoints. Imagine following the person with the most compelling life in the world, then: that would be perfectly simulationist, since such a person necessarily exists, but their life would probably feature a lot of low-base-rate events. It only becomes a problem if the events become so improbable that it becomes implausible for such a person to exist at all: if, after you condition on "I'm following the life of one of the most interesting/influential people in the world", what you observe is still surprisingly improbable. We don't have to go that far.

As long as the events happening to Hazou are not skewed towards being fun-to-read too much, SoD would handle it: an implicit assumption that you're reading about a person whose story is worth reading about.

Edit: The viewpoint from which it is "unsimulationist" is if we view MfD as a hardcore game/sandbox, instead of as a rational story. Then, yes, we're not operating from the premise that Hazou's story ought to be interesting. But the argument is precisely that we should move the slider further away from "MfD-as-a-game" and closer to "MfD-as-a-narrative".
I thought a major, and I do mean major, premise of the whole Quest is that Hazō, on his own, was not all that interesting or influential. That all of that was supposed to come from player input transforming "a dude" into the thing that he is now. Essentially it seems to me that you are arguing that the more we achieve making our character objectively protagonist material the more the world should bend to him and make his story a smooth sailing adventure story (on a sliding spectrum).

Since we are very clearly just reasoning backwards from the conclusion now, why not draw a fun conclusion and reason backwards from that?

The lore survived 1040 years for Jiriaya and 1065 years for Itachi, it can survive 1075 years for us.

It is no more simulationist than what you suggest. That is, they're both total bs and they're both consistent with the observed state of the EN.
No one knows if the lore survived. It might have. We are just speculating and finding reasons for why it might not be worth to go looking, because we got disappointed after going to a total of two places that Orochimaru et al already did a surface level looting of. Obviously the best lore caches would be the ones that have not been given to us by someone who became powerful by systematically looting them. We're asking a destructive mushroom forager where the best places to forage mushrooms are. Obviously the answers he gives (if he is being honest) is "the places I haven't found the time violently digging up yet" while the correct answer is "the places I haven't even thought of looking at". That's how we found the Great Seal, a place no S-Ranker knew about. And what a loot and lire cache it was.
Every additional powerup she got through our hard work and being under the high-res simulation just got added to every other elite jounin as a low-res thing that yeah off course they have that.
Putting all those other elite jōnin under high-res simulation, other than leading to their own chances of gaining powerups (since that is how they got to to place they got to in the first place) might on the one hand led to their off screen deaths before we even reach Leaf for the first time, but on the other hand would have necessitated naming and simulating all the other elite jōnin of both Leaf and every other village, to see if they rise to the occasion to replace or surpass the canon ones.

Honestly, this whole line of reasoning seems a bot crazy to me. Like, what are people hoping to gain from it? What solution is there to the stated problems, other than either building a GAI to help the QMs run this game or declaring that Hazō is a jōnin now after a time jump so we don't feel inadequate?
 
I think that high-res/low-res is generally advantageous to us (especially if spreadsheet vision counts), but very disadvantageous to the rest of Team Uplift. Same for the agency stuff. That's a huge shame !
 
I've become aware that MfD is currently reaching a grand climax to the rift arc, while simultaneously debating fun. So I thought I'd drop in for a quick visit.



A major reason that I could no longer engage with the quest was that I realised I was spending, by a wide margin, more energy on trying to solve the problem of player/QM fun, than I was on any other kind of interaction with the quest. Doing so was stressful and frustrating, and I eventually reached the conclusion that if I'm spending more effort trying to "fix" a game than I'm getting enjoyment out of playing it, then it's time to take a step back.



So I have thoughts on the topic, and I'll try to set them out here.







GAMES SHOULD BE FUN



The core premise of MfD is this: "The QMs simulate the deathworld as accurately as possible, and therefore the players' victories are as real as possible."



But at the same time, the things the actual people who interact with the quest want to get out of it can be at odds with each other.

  • EJ wants to write cool action scenes where there's significant potential for named important characters to die.
  • Vel wants to write cerebral social-fu between intelligent manipulators where there's significant potential for named important characters to be socially trapped/ruined/humiliated/etc.
  • The QMs collectively want to write compelling story beats, which is something that usually requires the protagonist to be facing down a challenge with bad odds, and then overcome said odds with a combination of cleverness, character growth, and luck.
  • The players collectively want to never ever ever have their beloved characters die/be socially screwed, or to face challenges with bad odds of such.
  • I'm currently out of touch with what the various player factions want because I've barely looked at the thread for a year, but if patterns hold, then there's probably groups for wanting to marry Ami, kill Ami, do necromancy, research specific pet projects, acquire IN socials, etc.


So here's the thing: You can't both have Hazou get into cool fights where he might die to a bad dice roll, and never risk Hazou's life on a bad dice roll. Those two things are fundamentally mutually exclusive, and the quest's tug of war between mind-numbingly-boring-for-QMs absolute safety as desired by the players, followed by QMs forcing life-or-death struggles for survival that gives players anxiety, is not a genuine solution. It's a band-aid. And it leaves everyone feeling vaguely unhappy with the status quo (see for evidence: the long history of discussions and attempts to restructure the rules to incentivise player risk-taking).



Further, it creates frankly ridiculous situations where Hazou is now having to scramble to deal with multiple apocalypses, because nothing short of the literal end of the world will motivate the players to risk his life. And even then, they're doing so begrudgingly, not enthusiastically, because Hazou will die anyway if they don't. It's insane. It's the exact opposite of the player-ambition-driven gameplay-loop that the community wants to aim for. It gives me the mental image of EJ wielding a herring as a two-handed club, beating the playerbase over the head with it while begging them to "Do something cool! For the love of Frigg just do something cool!".



But they won't.



Because the second they move in that direction, they could step on a landmine and get merc'd in a fight with a jonin.







So how the hell do you deal with that?



I'unno.



Sounds like it might just be impossible, tbh. Sucks that mfd could be built on a bedrock of sand, but, that said, I've got a couple of ideas…



  • Compromise of Values: Make the consequences of failure less punishing, while raising the necessity of action.
    • Instead of having fights where Hazou and co can be killed or maimed, have the worst things that can happen in a random combat be that Hazou gets captured and has to escape, or is badly injured and left for dead but manages to pull through, or gets knocked out like a pokemon and wakes up in Leaf general hospital with news that his mission failure has shifted the balance against Leaf.
    • Have multiple consecutive failures, or losing against narratively satisfying boss battles result in death or long-term injury all you like. But a random encounter shouldn't end the quest.
    • No more XP/day. XP is only ever awarded for letting QMs write cool shit (or making them laugh). Figure out how much cool shit a normie ninja does per year, and base the XP curve on that.


How does this square with simulationism? It kinda doesn't. But Hazou's attracted the attention of so many eldritch beings by now that you can plausibly say that Jashin or whoever has put their thumb on the scales. With Oli showing up as a canon character that one time, thereby canonising the QMs as eldritch entities, it's even true.



But this leads into another point about the simulation: You can bend the simulation without breaking it. Take the infamous Uchiha Deal, for example. The QMs could very easily have just said to themselves "this makes me uncomfortable, so I'm declaring that the Uchiha didn't think of it".



(I realise that saying that makes me sound like Squishy, but bear with me a second.)



Sometimes plausible but improbable things happen. You don't need to calculate the simulation by thinking "what would happen as a result of this?" and writing it down, even if it sucks for all the real humans involved. You could re-calculate the simulation with a statement of "it's unlikely that this would happen, but it's awesome/keeps the quest from dying, so I'm doing it".



None of that is a new concept to the QMs, but I suggest leaning harder in that direction.



My other idea is this:



  • Tactical Gameplay: De-emphasise the roll of skill and luck, and put more influence on clever tactical planning.
    • In the current model of combat, a chunin will never beat an S-ranker. Which is a shame, because Hazou's (probably still?) a chunin, and all his opps are S-rankers. So. Let's change that.
    • When the players come up with clever tactics, let them score hits that bypass needing to roll, or give bonuses, or something. Make writing more than "Stack Buffs; Punch Hard" be the strongest determiner of who wins combat.
    • In canon Naruto, team seven fight Zabuza and get the advantage against this vastly superior opponent through the use of clever tricks. Ironically, this would never happen in mfd right now. That's the level of adjustment I think y'all need to aim for. I expect that players feeling that cunning plans have more of an effect on whether they win than numbers do, will re-energise their willingness to fight against people with high numbers.


And yeah.



That's my analysis and recommendations. Do with them as you will.
 
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They each had about 20 in the Ravening of Dragons, so it'll probably be close to that as an upper bound?
That's the upper bound, I doubt it will be anywhere near that.
Back-of-the-envelope math suggests 7000-12000 for Tsunade, Oro, Mari and bosses. Not sure about the elite summons. Runes will run through a huge amount as well, so I don't think we can plan on much left over
Where are you getting these numbers from? They seem very wrong.
 
@eaglejarl, @Velorien, @Paperclipped:

MfD's story is nearing the climax of one of its biggest arcs so far. The stresses and the high-stakes decisions associated with it have created a few spots of tension between the players and the QMs. Upon reflection, the majority of the regular players have come to view these tensions as instances of systemic issues that have been long plaguing MfD. Over the past several months, we've been mulling over them, culminating in this collectively-supported letter.

It must be stressed that the players don't believe that any of these issues are due to the QMs' ill intent. We believe that the QMs are operating in good faith, doing their best to rigorously model a simulationist quest and implement a fair rules-based game within it.

Indeed, the current status quo seems to be hurting the QMs as well: both directly, by making their ability to write MfD unnecessarily harder, and by proxy, due to the negative moods within the playerbase.

The purpose of this letter is to establish a shared understanding of the problems we've identified, to serve as a foundation for subsequent discussions regarding possible solutions. We believe that by working together, we can reach an equilibrium where everyone's experience with MfD improves significantly.



Our understanding is that QMs model the established player/QM dynamics as based on an implicit social contract. The QMs faithfully and impartially simulate MfD's world, avoiding narrative causality and railroading, effectively implementing a "sandbox" in which the players' ability to guide the story is only limited by their agency. In turn, the players' knowledge is limited to only what Hazou knows, and the players' only channel of causal influence is through Hazou.

Effectively, on the players' end, MfD is intended to be a hardcore-but-fair simulation game.

Despite the QMs' best efforts, however, the simulation is imperfect. In general, flaws in it are expected and understandable: QMs don't have infinite time, effort, and knowledge necessary to perfectly simulate a world, after all. But some of those imperfections take the shape of systemic patterns, rather than one-off random errors. Specifically, patterns that markedly worsen the players' experiences in particular, in ways that might not be visible to the QMs.

Two major categories of said flaws can be dubbed "simulation lag" and "high-res vs. low-res simulation".

"Simulation lag" involves situations in which the players cannot access the resources that Hazou should, by any reasonable interpretation of the in-universe situation, have access to, due to the fact that faithfully modeling the particulars of these resources would eat up too much of the QMs' time.

Concrete examples:
  • Jiraiya's seal hoard. Little more needs to be said on that topic.
  • Publicly available Tower seals. We'd voted to download them, and never received them.
  • Any number of seals and jutsu that Asuma would've briefed us on and given us access to in order to assist us in the Dragonwar.
  • More generally, all of the actions we choose not to take because we know it would overload the QMs. (For example: not asking for a list of all publicly known non-village-affiliated clans, so that we can scan it for interesting targets to raid.)
  • Our Team Uplift advisors failing to provide sufficiently detailed analyses of in-story situations.
  • The second half of King Kamehameha's conversation.
  • Ambiguities regarding how certain mechanics work, such as:
    • ACE refresh dates.
    • DoB's interactions with non-research infusions.
    • MedNin research.
  • Last-minute retcons due to suddenly revealed inconsistencies. (Such as the entire "the Akatsuki's anti-summon seal array" incident.)
  • Various subtler continuity errors, which make us uncertain regarding which elements of the setting/characterization we can rely on, and which have since fallen Out.
Not only do we fail to make use of those resources, there are also drastic opportunity costs involved. Advantages are often multiplicative – who knows what we could've developed based on Jiraiya's seals, if we've had access to them years earlier?

This issue effectively makes the game unfair-against-us – even though no party intends this unfairness.

High-res vs. low-res simulation is exactly what it says on the tin: the difference between how the MfD world seems to work when modeled in a "low-resolution" background manner, and how it works immediately around Hazou.

Our understanding is that "high-resolution" elements are given much more scrutiny than the "low-resolution" ones, both because they're simulated in more detail (and therefore more inconsistencies become clear), and because the QMs feel the need to make their mechanics ironclad, lest we immediately exploit them into an anticlimactic, unrealistic-feeling total victory.

However, that likewise has the effective end result of systemically disadvantaging us. The details of anything we touch are subjected to much more consistency-based constraints than the stuff our enemies are allowed to get up to in the background. As the consequence, anything we get access to seems to suddenly become much weaker than advertised.

Concrete examples:
  • Every jutsu, seal, or resource accessible to the players has a rigorous receipt attached to it: how we got it, why, and what it's capable of. By contrast, the Akatsuki can be freely given an incredibly powerful seal array, because their history isn't modeled in as much detail. There are numerous "free variables" in there that can be tweaked to patch the holes in the simulation.
  • The chakra-water cave. In low-res, it was apparently the thing that let the Sannin survive Hanzo long enough to earn their title. In high-res, it's a relatively underwhelming 20% discount, and it's hard to imagine how it could've had its described low-res effect.
  • Research mechanics, such as sealing. Initially, it was introduced as ultimately all-capable. But once we got more into it and reached jounin-level, it became clear that its actual capabilities must be extremely limited. Else, why wouldn't sealmasters already rule the world?
  • Sociopolitical developments. People like Ami can weave incredibly intricate social schemes – as long as they stay "low-res", with the details of what/who they're manipulating being fleshed out simultaneously with the idea that they've succeeded in the manipulation. By contrast, Mari struggles to think circles around Orochimaru or even Shikamaru, because once they're brought on-screen, their details and Mari's capabilities become fixed – and it becomes unrealistic for Mari to win hard.
Summing up: Once we can actually access a given capability, it often ends up weaker compared to how powerful it appeared "from a distance". Which makes it seem as though any capability we acquire immediately ends up nerfed just because we now have it. While we recognize that the QMs are not intentionally acting to keep us weak, it nevertheless creates this impression, and the associated negative feelings.



I should reiterate that we don't blame the QMs for failing to run a perfect simulation. Indeed, it's an impossible demand. QMs have limited time, energy, and knowledge, and also lives to live.

Nevertheless, although understandable in all kinds of ways, it is still a problem. As-is, certain classes of simulation failures end up systemically disadvantaging the players.

Exacerbating the problem, it's our perception that the QMs aren't aware of the scale of the issue and how acutely the players feel it. It seems to us that the QMs still view themselves as basically succeeding at acting as balanced simulators; that any dissatisfaction with the rulings is "player salt" that can and should be dismissed with the indifference of the laws of nature; and that they must uphold the implicit social contract and act as volitionless simulation-game engines lest the entire enterprise falls apart.

On the player side, it's become particularly dire in the last several months, with many long-term players intensely unhappy with this state of affairs and considering stopping playing. The overall opinion is that significant, global changes to the way the quest is run are needed. It's not a matter of a select few bad rulings or local errors.

For one: Although perfect simulation is impossible, what we could prospectively strive for is a paradigm of "net-neutral" simulation failures. Introduce some change to the way the simulation is run which would ensure that the simulation's failures advantage the players as often as they harm them. Alternatively, make it a policy to deliberately adjust the simulation-state to cancel out the effects of any failures on the strength of our in-story position.

Another plausible point of intervention is decreasing the importance of the "hardcore-but-fair game" part of the experience. The common sentiment among long-term players is that we don't care that much about "player agency" or "earning our victories". We care about reading a rational, simulationist, internally consistent, well-written story. But that story doesn't have to pull double duty as a hardcore game.

So: we're fine with some degree of QM-guided steering, as long as it's towards problems that would be fun to solve and to plot points the QMs would enjoy writing. We're fine with narrative causality, as long as the resultant story-state is still internally consistent. We're fine with the QMs fudging the dice rolls, as long as it's for more narratively exciting outcomes (whether it's fudged in our favour or against it). Et cetera.

In turn, we would like the QMs to loosen up the rules on their end as well. Outcome-pump the hidden free variables of the simulation to accommodate our schemes sometimes, when those schemes seem exciting to all of us. Let Team Uplift display more agency, if and when it would be fun and in-character for them to do so – even if it would clash with the players' agency or lead to them solving our problems for us. Provide us with OOC information when it makes our life easier and doesn't open the door for egregious meta-gaming. (Paper bluntly telling us that the ACE date didn't matter for our ability to summon Cannai is a good example here. We would have preferred if we were told that at the very beginning, instead of engaging in the exhausting back-and-forth about the dates.) Et cetera.

Our expectation is that this would make the experience better on the QM end as well. QMs have repeatedly complained that the demands of the simulation and our choices within it maneuver the story towards states they find unpleasant or boring to write. The lighthousing, the endless meetings, the lack of punching. None of this has to be happening.

The status quo represents a suboptimal equilibrium. As relatively rational agents, we are surely capable of coordinating to move to a superior one.



Signatories: Noumero, _The_Bomb, Inferno Vulpix, Spector29, acidshill, RandomOTP, DanZapman, T_of_A, Emstar, Zampano, absoluteblack, CaramilkThief, RoadWild, Lunae, Gintarazimu, Sir Stompy, FaintlySorcerous, redzonejoe, ProperAttorney, Cariyaga, Unaligned Player, Halil.
Thank you for this. It's immensely helpful and clarifies a lot of things. I look forward to discussing it, both with the other QMs and with the player community as we figure things out. I hope that, with additional communication, we can find our way to a new status quo that satisfies as many people as possible.
 
Since we're talking about lore again I'd just like to once again bring up that our beloved sister Kei trusts us to save the world (from whatever it is Akatsuki want to do, which we don't know, but is certainly worse than what we did to Moon... right?) but not so much that she would allow Yuno to tell us whatever Isan lore she was going to tell us

And Kagome wouldn't tell us anything about his past either, but even though we extended more trust to him than he did to us, allowing Orochimaru to operate on us to help us save the world was too much for him
 
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Since we're talking about lore again I'd just like to once again bring up that our beloved sister Kei trusts us to save the world (from whatever it is Akatsuki want to do, which we don't know, but is certainly worse than what we did to Moon... right?) but not so much that she would allow Yuno to tell us whatever Isan lore she was going to tell us
KEI: Isan's Forbidden Lore doesn't necessarily aid you in saving the world from Akatsuki. How would you expect said Forbidden Lore to assist you?
And Kagome wouldn't tell us anything about his past either, but even though we extended more trust to him than he did to us, allowing Orochimaru to operate on us to help us save the world was too much for him
Kagome doesn't know much about his past because his past is a multiversal patchwork web of insanity. What he knows (from Hidden Cloud, some of his sealmaster training, the context* in which he went missing), he's told us.
 
I've become aware that MfD is currently reaching a grand climax to the rift arc, while simultaneously debating fun. So I thought I'd drop in for a quick visit.



A major reason that I could no longer engage with the quest was that I realised I was spending, by a wide margin, more energy on trying to solve the problem of player/QM fun, than I was on any other kind of interaction with the quest. Doing so was stressful and frustrating, and I eventually reached the conclusion that if I'm spending more effort trying to "fix" a game than I'm getting enjoyment out of playing it, then it's time to take a step back.



So I have thoughts on the topic, and I'll try to set them out here.







GAMES SHOULD BE FUN



The core premise of MfD is this: "The QMs simulate the deathworld as accurately as possible, and therefore the players' victories are as real as possible."



But at the same time, the things the actual people who interact with the quest want to get out of it can be at odds with each other.

  • EJ wants to write cool action scenes where there's significant potential for named important characters to die.
  • Vel wants to write cerebral social-fu between intelligent manipulators where there's significant potential for named important characters to be socially trapped/ruined/humiliated/etc.
  • The QMs collectively want to write compelling story beats, which is something that usually requires the protagonist to be facing down a challenge with bad odds, and then overcome said odds with a combination of cleverness, character growth, and luck.
  • The players collectively want to never ever ever have their beloved characters die/be socially screwed, or to face challenges with bad odds of such.
  • I'm currently out of touch with what the various player factions want because I've barely looked at the thread for a year, but if patterns hold, then there's probably groups for wanting to marry Ami, kill Ami, do necromancy, research specific pet projects, acquire IN socials, etc.


So here's the thing: You can't both have Hazou get into cool fights where he might die to a bad dice roll, and never risk Hazou's life on a bad dice roll. Those two things are fundamentally mutually exclusive, and the quest's tug of war between mind-numbingly-boring-for-QMs absolute safety as desired by the players, followed by QMs forcing life-or-death struggles for survival that gives players anxiety, is not a genuine solution. It's a band-aid. And it leaves everyone feeling vaguely unhappy with the status quo (see for evidence: the long history of discussions and attempts to restructure the rules to incentivise player risk-taking).



Further, it creates frankly ridiculous situations where Hazou is now having to scramble to deal with multiple apocalypses, because nothing short of the literal end of the world will motivate the players to risk his life. And even then, they're doing so begrudgingly, not enthusiastically, because Hazou will die anyway if they don't. It's insane. It's the exact opposite of the player-ambition-driven gameplay-loop that the community wants to aim for. It gives me the mental image of EJ wielding a herring as a two-handed club, beating the playerbase over the head with it while begging them to "Do something cool! For the love of Frigg just do something cool!".



But they won't.



Because the second they move in that direction, they could step on a landmine and get merc'd in a fight with a jonin.







So how the hell do you deal with that?



I'unno.



Sounds like it might just be impossible, tbh. Sucks that mfd could be built on a bedrock of sand, but, that said, I've got a couple of ideas…



  • Compromise of Values: Make the consequences of failure less punishing, while raising the necessity of action.
    • Instead of having fights where Hazou and co can be killed or maimed, have the worst things that can happen in a random combat be that Hazou gets captured and has to escape, or is badly injured and left for dead but manages to pull through, or gets knocked out like a pokemon and wakes up in Leaf general hospital with news that his mission failure has shifted the balance against Leaf.
    • Have multiple consecutive failures, or losing against narratively satisfying boss battles result in death or long-term injury all you like. But a random encounter shouldn't end the quest.
    • No more XP/day. XP is only ever awarded for letting QMs write cool shit (or making them laugh). Figure out how much cool shit a normie ninja does per year, and base the XP curve on that.


How does this square with simulationism? It kinda doesn't. But Hazou's attracted the attention of so many eldritch beings by now that you can plausibly say that Jashin or whoever has put their thumb on the scales. With Oli showing up as a canon character that one time, thereby canonising the QMs as eldritch entities, it's even true.



But this leads into another point about the simulation: You can bend the simulation without breaking it. Take the infamous Uchiha Deal, for example. The QMs could very easily have just said to themselves "this makes me uncomfortable, so I'm declaring that the Uchiha didn't think of it".



(I realise that saying that makes me sound like Squishy, but bear with me a second.)



Sometimes plausible but improbable things happen. You don't need to calculate the simulation by thinking "what would happen as a result of this?" and writing it down, even if it sucks for all the real humans involved. You could re-calculate the simulation with a statement of "it's unlikely that this would happen, but it's awesome/keeps the quest from dying, so I'm doing it".



None of that is a new concept to the QMs, but I suggest leaning harder in that direction.



My other idea is this:



  • Tactical Gameplay: De-emphasise the roll of skill and luck, and put more influence on clever tactical planning.
    • In the current model of combat, a chunin will never beat an S-ranker. Which is a shame, because Hazou's (probably still?) a chunin, and all his opps are S-rankers. So. Let's change that.
    • When the players come up with clever tactics, let them score hits that bypass needing to roll, or give bonuses, or something. Make writing more than "Stack Buffs; Punch Hard" be the strongest determiner of who wins combat.
    • In canon Naruto, team seven fight Zabuza and get the advantage against this vastly superior opponent through the use of clever tricks. Ironically, this would never happen in mfd right now. That's the level of adjustment I think y'all need to aim for. I expect that players feeling that cunning plans have more of an effect on whether they win than numbers do, will re-energise their willingness to fight against people with high numbers.


And yeah.



That's my analysis and recommendations. Do with them as you will.
Thank you for taking the time to write this up, especially when engaging with the quest is stressful for you. I will admit to already feeling a little overwhelmed, but every piece of input matters and will hopefully help us figure out the right compromise (and the right type of compromise) to make all of this work.
 
HAZOU: "Sasori is a ninja of the Yodomi bloodline. Now tell me EVERYTHING! I am not a puppet of Orochimaru by the way. And please ignore the Jashin amulet"
KEI: You already know everything that can be known about the Yodomi in terms of their bloodline's effects on their mental state. Nothing I know about the Yodomi that you do not know will aid you.

KEI: *pauses* But your point is well made. Please follow me to this conveniently isolated location where I will definitely tell you everything.
 
KEI: Isan's Forbidden Lore doesn't necessarily aid you in saving the world from Akatsuki. How would you expect said Forbidden Lore to assist you?
Yeah, and an Air Dome seal doesn't let you walk on air. How could we possibly know if Forbidden Lore aids us in saving the world or not without knowing said Forbidden Lore?

Kagome doesn't know much about his past because his past is a multiversal patchwork web of insanity. What he knows (from Hidden Cloud, some of his sealmaster training, the context* in which he went missing), he's told us.
I recall the Kagome backstory interlude, but I can't remember if it was told to Hazou in-character. Does Hazou know that Kagome was basically spat out of a rift?
 
Yeah, and an Air Dome seal doesn't let you walk on air. How could we possibly know if Forbidden Lore aids us in saving the world or not without knowing said Forbidden Lore?
KEI: You trust me when I say that it won't?
I recall the Kagome backstory interlude, but I can't remember if it was told to Hazou in-character. Does Hazou know that Kagome was basically spat out of a rift?
Kagome doesn't know that Kagome was basically spat out of a rift. How's he supposed to tell anyone?
 
For this matter, specifically, I am leaning more the former ("new answer that's relatively close") than the latter ("reroll with new distribution"). A new answer, designed by a QM, that is closer to the spirit of "intending to retain 'fun' but still similar to the rolled answer" feels like it would provide more consistently positive results than "reroll with new distribution bars."

It also "honors" the original roll by choosing a similar answer, rather than a complete rewrite. This honestly doesn't matter as much, to me, but I can see how it might appeal to a certain mindset.

It was also done to nice effect in this chapter, which makes me hopeful for its future implementation.




It should be posted in ~6 hours, give or take some time. To my understanding, the letter is more or less in its final form, and the delay is just to give people time to submit their final thoughts.

I agree on the "modify from the roll" first approach, and Veedrac's comment about those rolls being primary tools to help QMs worldcraft. If you get a result that seems unrealistically harsh (or even favorable!), then moving them to "within the bounds of what is fun and makes sense" seems totally fair to me.

My input on the ongoing discussions:

1a) I think the high res/low res thing ends up pretty even. Velorien already explained the ways it benefited us, and a couple other players have chimed in that our survival and success benefits from, not plot armor, but at least plot focus. We've changed international war paradigms a couple times, catalyzed major geopolitical events, and have discovered enough Hax that we have a famously powerful one (Minatosealing) that we haven't even had time to look into yet, despite getting most of the XP to qualify from free lootboxes that we got largely because one of the most powerful people in the setting adopted us! Like, I don't think we're hurting. And it's been brought up that seeing the few ninja that end up as Essie's doesn't acknowledge the thousands that died and were not, even though some of them could have had the Hax if they survived long enough. (Rest, but not for much longer, Akane.)

1b) It seems to me that part of the issue is that both Hazou as we-as-players feel the need to fix everything ourselves. Hero complex, it's a game, there need to be huge threats for us to have stakes (cue Scion revealing the endbringers were because the trio needed a challenge here), a consistent problem in and out of character respecting character agency, etc. So we need to stand up to Zabuza, to win the chunin games, to solve the great seal, to stop akatsuki, to run a clan, to bring uplift to the entire world, to...

1ai) As Orochimaru noted, we've earned a seat at the adult table, despite not having the personal individual strength usually required in the setting, by virtue of pursuing a lost form of sealing (as well as having been on the radar as an actor before that because of everything else, including our dealings with the sannin). We got that, because of a cool plot thread being dropped on us. We diverted our build to try and fix the great seal. There was some frustrations and salt from that at the time, and it turned into our strongest niche. Being the ones trying to deal with the rift, and getting through Minato's notes by learning Technique Hacking, opened the doors to Minatosealing, despite the thread talking about dropping TH multiple times. We've decided to take on all these big things, with big moving parts, moving from one project to the next. So of course we don't know all the knowledge about any given area, or feel like we're playing catch-up. We are a teenager, who's only formal high-level training got cut off when Asuma was killed, constantly pushing into big issues because we want to make a difference. Attention to detail and not having everything kept straight as our very ADHD player character jumps from crisis to crisis... I at least see that as a cost of doing business, if we're so intent on doing business constantly at the international level.

1c) I do think the spotlight and the quest format do hurt uplift's competence sometimes, and often their best chapters are ones that we aren't present for. I don't think there's a lot around that, except for them getting a bit better over time, for as long as we as players want to be able to dictate their actions to a degree that is massive and somewhat fiat for the premise of the quest. Team uplift gives us an insane measure of control, and if having them as resources comes at the cost of their agency because they're turning it over to us behind the curtain a bit... Well, Kei would have an existential worldview collapse, but I think that's a reasonable trade-off. And I do appreciate that domain unstagnations have been happening offscreen, so it is not one more thing to try and fit in ourselves.

2) I like that this is a game! I've spent a lot of time lurking (I was around from the beginning, but didn't really click in that I could participate until the start of the chunin exams, my voting record is inconsistent), and I still need clarification on some of the rules interactions. Despite that, I enjoy that we the players get to make cool choices, even when I don't always agree with some of the plans, or even the directions some players want to take things! Being able to map out builds, pivot when we get a new broken ability or emergency, do cost benefit analysis on different options, it's really fun! I probably wouldn't read nearly as much of the thread, if I didn't think that I could have an impact in the direction the story was headed, and gain knowledge of how things worked, dattebayo. I know the question isn't "game yes or game no", but I just want to weigh in that I like the player agency. I wish I could commit more time to taking on more of the burden (but I can do some, see point 3).

2a) I do think a little bit of frustration is probably at the pacing contradiction. Not having seal or technique specs when we're trying to research them slows things down, and puts a burden on both the players and the QMs. Doing timeskips makes it worse, because there's more to do in character but no more time irl.
But, on the other hand, moving slowly means research doesn't get done, and XP doesn't get acquired or invested. As someone who loves seeing mechanics and builds being filled out, knowing it'll be irl at minimum months before getting Minatosealing, which could help solve our personal power issue and be really cool, is frustrating. Hazou is stuck as a perpetual low chunin, because new crisis come up faster than we can acquire XP. If we had a Hazou who had a couple years to train, who didn't have a million responsibilities, we could get to an interesting jonin statline with Essie hax. But that's not the pace we're going at (aside from the last arc, which gave us big toys and nominal build increases, but was also not the most fulfilling or fun arc for either players or QMs it seems).
There's not much for that I think, aside from having time normally pass at a pace between these two to make it manageable on both ends

3) Offload more of the work onto us! Some of us have been brought in to help with the economics system, or there's been a mass collection of jutsu, or adoption of system components from other questions. And that stuff has been rad and fun for us the plays, to help make the sandbox! (Or, at least for me, and it seems like others agreed at the time.) If developing seals or techniques or clan powers or, heck, models of Ninja that fight offscreen or are used against us would be helpful to you, I'm sure some of us can take that on! This is collaborative story telling, and I for one want to support that collaboration rather than shifting it away!

(Plus, it's easier to know the deep lore if you help come up with it!)

Sorry, this ended up a lot longer than I intended!
 
KEI: You already know everything that can be known about the Yodomi in terms of their bloodline's effects on their mental state. Nothing I know about the Yodomi that you do not know will aid you.

KEI: *pauses* But your point is well made. Please follow me to this conveniently isolated location where I will definitely tell you everything.

KEI: *stabby stabby* "Why won't you die!?"

HAZOU: "What a fool you are. I'm a god. How can you kill a god? What a grand and intoxicating innocence."

OROCHIMARU: "What a fool you are. I need him for my plans"

JASHIN:
 
KEI: *stabby stabby* "Why won't you die!?"

HAZOU: "What a fool you are. I'm a god. How can you kill a god? What a grand and intoxicating innocence."

OROCHIMARU: "What a fool you are. I need him for my plans"

JASHIN:
DAGOTH UR: I feel a great disturbance in the Force, as though somewhere someone is stealing my line.

DAGOTH UR: Oh well, I'm just gonna stay in this volcanic ruin twiddling my oversized thumbs.
 
KEI: You trust me when I say that it won't?
Not really. How can you tell, with the Frozen Skein-induced impairment? Maybe if Snowflake said it.

I still don't find it to be reasonable for Kei to exploit her position as a religious figure for Yuno to keep her from telling us the Forbidden Lore, but I am admittedly not too fond of Kei.

Kagome doesn't know that Kagome was basically spat out of a rift. How's he supposed to tell anyone?
OK. How did he know about those locations that had rifts, though? The multiverse-merger that resulted in the creation of Kagome luckily had knowledge of the location of these rifts in this specific universe, or does he unconsciously filter through his memories for things that are relevant to this universe?
 
Not really. How can you tell, with the Frozen Skein-induced impairment? Maybe if Snowflake said it.

I still don't find it to be reasonable for Kei to exploit her position as a religious figure for Yuno to keep her from telling us the Forbidden Lore, but I am admittedly not too fond of Kei.
SNOWFLAKE: I agree with what Kei said. I am also going to slap you now.
OK. How did he know about those locations that had rifts, though? The multiverse-merger that resulted in the creation of Kagome luckily had knowledge of the location of these rifts in this specific universe, or does he unconsciously filter through his memories for things that are relevant to this universe?
HDK.
 
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