Hmn.
Well, apparently they were only ever used as night lights for rich kids whose parents wanted to show off. So maybe none of those parents were ever sealmasters?
Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest
- Thread starter eaglejarl
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- naruto rationalist romance armageddon is looking better and better damn you kishimoto explosions everywhere explosives solve everyone if in doubt surrender to the mercy of zabuza it seemed like a good idea at the time looks like a really bad case of being a jōnin my god. where does the lore end? precommitting is the winning plan screaming in kagome screw the rules i have explosives something bad might still happen sometimes you gotta sociopath stabby zabby subsection c of paragraph 9 should include we can weaponize this so hard
Hmn.
Well, apparently they were only ever used as night lights for rich kids whose parents wanted to show off. So maybe none of those parents were ever sealmasters?
- Location
- Yes.
Find Ino and get her to do it? Her Deception is probably better.
Or get Hazou to do it, if you want him to take a break from sealmaking.
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Vecht
Self-Requested Ban
- Location
- Snarksville, Snarkland
Available chakra for activations is not the bottleneck, but rather some combination of the proctors' time handing out seals one by one, and teams' willingness and ability to seek out proctors.
People aren't sitting around dumping as much chakra into the seals as they can with piles of them within arms reach.
Begging the Question; 15 yard penalty.
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[X] Action Plan: Keep Your Head
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ThrawnCA
Carbon-based biped
- Location
- Australia
It's like a medieval re-enactment where all the maces are made from unexploded grenades.
It's like a village has been getting all its fresh water by poking more and more tiny holes in a dam upstream and collecting the leaks.
It's like a fleet of Hindenburgs having a race through a storm.
And yeah, the nuclear waste comparison works too.
It's like a village has been getting all its fresh water by poking more and more tiny holes in a dam upstream and collecting the leaks.
It's like a fleet of Hindenburgs having a race through a storm.
And yeah, the nuclear waste comparison works too.
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- Location
- Somewhere over the rainbow
I suppose I should check just one thing first though:
@eaglejarl @Velorien @OliWhail Has Kagome ever mentioned what happens in chain seal failure, or where multiple seal failures happen very close to each other?
@eaglejarl @Velorien @OliWhail Has Kagome ever mentioned what happens in chain seal failure, or where multiple seal failures happen very close to each other?
ThrawnCA
Carbon-based biped
- Location
- Australia
I doubt he would have said anything coherent in response to that scenario... but I think we all know roughly what he would advise.
(By the way, he must never find out about what Mist is doing with these seals, lest he sneak away in the night with skywalkers and blow the entire village off the map for the greater good.)
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- Location
- Phoenix, AZ
So, I didn't specify exactly who would go on the mission (aside from not Hazou (care more about seal supplies) and not Keiko (care more about Pangolin coordination & storage)). If Ino or someone with high deception is around, we should definitely send them and I would hope they'd be picked for it. However, keep in mind there's only 38 more hours in which the warning will matter. Assuming we don't go running around in the dark, this gives us ~28 hours before the end of the exam from when we start sending out missions. This means the team could find a proctor with probably 25-30 hours left in the exam, which is a reasonable time to prevent potential seal deaths. "Finding Ino" is an open-ended task which would require searching 100 square miles of death swamp to find a specific set of hidden ninja. I'll be a bit surprised if we succeed at that within the time limit of the exam, and it seems a bit odd to do that for a small increase in the likelihood of success.
I very much so do not want Hazou to take a break from sealmaking, as he is necessary for the continued success of the operation. Without Hazou, Akane's team (and other Leaf-nin) leave us because there are no points in it for them.
That would only be begging the question if my evidence that 1% is less likely than 10% was that I had asserted that 1% is less likely than 10%. Since that clearly* isn't the case, could you please not?
* Have all of these pieces of evidence and my interpretations thereof, which I used to judge the numbers:
- Hazou is freaking out and really doesn't want to infuse the seals (EJ's exact words were "Hazō spent just over 45 minutes investigating the Night Light seal and is now able to create and infuse them should he ever be stupid enough to want to. He has no interest in doing so, nor in studying the concept of chakra storage in general as that might well fall under the rubric of 'weaponizing seal failure' which Jiraiya has warned him to avoid. "), that seems to me to be more likely to be true if the seal is more likely than 1% to fail.
- The seals are in a high-combat zone containing 300-400 genin. That means that they'll face combat conditions and risk of being hit by jutsu. Given that, I believe that more than one in one-hundred will be damaged in combat.
- The seals are in a swamp, and their casing must have holes to let light through. I would be surprised if only one in one-hundred got water damaged accidentally when some genin trips or falls or is knocked into the water.
- When one seal failure goes off, that can increase the hostility of the local environment, vastly increasing the chances for other seals to be ruined, and setting off a chain reaction. If a chain reaction goes off then you can increase the previous numbers even further.
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Is there any reason we couldn't try bribing a proctor to send a message for us instead of a genin? We could even have them send it to the Mizukage rather than Jiraiya, with a letter expressing our concerns along with details a sealmaster would understand, and a recommendation that she have Jiraiya and/or a sealmaster of her choice who is not the maker of these damnable things both look at the Night-Light seals ASAP to verify. If we're paying enough seals that it's more than their salary, they'll probably think we're not full of shit, especially if we give them a down payment and a written guarantee that if they get the Mizukage's signature on the contract that we will deliver, perhaps on consequence of forfeiting the exams if we don't deliver, regardless of if we're right or wrong. Our goal here is not to make Mist look bad, it's to ensure the safety of the exams by not having a massive seal failure occur.
Also, we don't strictly want to tell the proctors about our Party Trick seal plan - why the hell would we do that? We don't want them sending someone to 'clarify the rules' before the end of the event because we violated OPSEC, now do we?
- Location
- The Void
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Counter point even if seal have a failure rate that you suspect most of them should be non dangerous.
I do. You'll note that my estimate is 90% non-dangerous.
EDIT: Oh, I see what you mean. No, that's fair. Then let's say that it's some amount less than 10%. I'd hesitate to put a number on it. But I would still say that given the huge amount of seals we're dealing with, that's still most likely double digits of failures.
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Hazou doesnt think combat conditions/seal destruction make cthulu style failure more likely. Which makes sense since we have been using activated seals in combat all the time (and have seen so many activated seals destroyed). In every other case (implosion deal, 5sb, Skywalker's, Arikada's zombie seal, etc. etc.) the destroyed seals have merely ceased functioning. There is no reason to expect cthulu chain reaction from what I can see
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Wrong. He doesn't know whether they do, which is not the same thing at all. Exact quote:
- Location
- The Void
- Pronouns
- She/Her
And even if we get 50 failures there are 300 chunninish level ninja +20 proctors who can help put out any things that happen. So it might be dangerous but doesn't seem like an emergency level threat that would warrant cancelling the exams
That's presuming that the failures are things that can be 'put out'. You can't 'put out' a few examinees being sucked into a hell dimension full of gecko monsters, or being turned inside out, or having their vital organs replaced with sandwiches, or any other other things that could go wrong when a seal failure occurs.
Yeah, unactivated = 0 danger
But it remains true that he does not think that destroying them when activated is more dangerous than when they seal over by themselves. In fact he specifically highlights that, saying: "I have no idea what would happen, or if it would be more or less likely to go wrong"
I suppose you could argue that since he suspects that them sealing over by themselves is fine and he doesn't know if destroying them is better or worse, it's therefore more dangerous? But that's NOT what he says (which makes sense since all the other seals we've seen haven't cthulu'd on destruction); he just suggests that destroying them unactivated is way safer
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- Location
- Somewhere over the rainbow
I keep hearing this line and I have the quotation and I think you're wrong on this. Here, have the quotation again:
First: Destroying the seal definitely removes the functionality. The chakra envelope that forms the key to this whole seal is definitely going to fail when the seal itself is destroyed.
What happens next is [UNDEFINED BEHAVIOR], depending on what the chakra contained within the envelope does next: it could release in a puff of light, it could explode in a twenty meter radius of fire, it could summon the Sage, it could open a portal to that which cannot be named, it could permanently remove a 3D space from reality, it could link straight to space, etc.
When the envelope fails and collapses in a destructive fashion, [UNDEFINED BEHAVIOR] is what results. Never mistake that for being harmless; it's the first and last mistake any new(ly killed) sealmaster makes.
Wrong again on the destroying them is better or worse; Hazou definitively states that deactivation will cause a safe envelop collapse, while destruction will cause an [UNDEFINED] collapse.
No it doesn't?
He specifically says that he doesn't know whether it's more dangerous or not. Not that it isn't more dangerous. That he doesn't know.
EDIT: ninja'd.
Vecht
Self-Requested Ban
- Location
- Snarksville, Snarkland
Apologies, but I'm not letting this one go.
Paraphrasing your original argument: "If we assume the situation is catastrophically dangerous (specifically that 1% of the seals or more will result in sealing failures and also that there are many tens of thousands of opportunities for failure), then the math clearly shows the situation to be catastrophically dangerous."
^ This is indeed begging the question. You may very well have compelling, independent reasons for why you believe the assertions; specifically that we should expect as many as 1% or greater of Nightlight seaIs to result in sealing failures, and that the number of opportunities for failure exceeds previous estimations (reasons which indeed you have given upon prodding to do so).
My point is that those reasons are what should be discussed, and that sloppy arguments like the above should not be entertained. Indeed, I would go so far as to argue that a norm of imposition of minor social costs is a fairly effective deterrent to prevent otherwise smart individuals from making weak and effortless arguments. (One may argue the value of such, but that is another issue.)
Regarding the matter at hand, I certainly think the points you bring up are relevant, to a degree. However, I do not agree with your reasoning, and also do not wish to debate the points at present (others are certainly free to though now that your reasons are clearly stated).
This is a more accurate depiction of my argument:
But you know what? I'm out of spoons. You've failed to convince me, but I can't be bothered to try to convince you.
But you know what? I'm out of spoons. You've failed to convince me, but I can't be bothered to try to convince you.
Tua
鸡肉面条汤
- Location
- شوربة الدجاج المعكرونة
So here I am, mildly amazed about all the discussion about sealing failures when in my head canon that was just something the QMs made up because they wanted to make sealing more exciting to write about.
It probably went down a little like this:
eaglejarl: Oh great, the players decided to make Hazo pursue sealing. This is going to be so boring to write.
Velorien: Hmm, what if we made sealing more exciting?
eaglejarl: How?
Velorien: Cthulu.
eaglejarl: Cthulu?
Velorien: Cthulu. You mess up a seal, tentacles come out, rocks fall and the party is dead.
eaglejarl: That's crazy. There was nothing like that in the canon. The players won't buy this.
Velorien: It doesn't have to be always Cthulu. It could spawn a bunch of weird enemies the player characters could defeat through punching.
eaglejarl: Punching you say? Sign me up. Who is gonna tell them?
Velorien: I'll write the info dump post, just need to finish this update where I murder that NPC the players like so much.
It probably went down a little like this:
eaglejarl: Oh great, the players decided to make Hazo pursue sealing. This is going to be so boring to write.
Velorien: Hmm, what if we made sealing more exciting?
eaglejarl: How?
Velorien: Cthulu.
eaglejarl: Cthulu?
Velorien: Cthulu. You mess up a seal, tentacles come out, rocks fall and the party is dead.
eaglejarl: That's crazy. There was nothing like that in the canon. The players won't buy this.
Velorien: It doesn't have to be always Cthulu. It could spawn a bunch of weird enemies the player characters could defeat through punching.
eaglejarl: Punching you say? Sign me up. Who is gonna tell them?
Velorien: I'll write the info dump post, just need to finish this update where I murder that NPC the players like so much.
will408914
(slouching towards bethlehem)
- Location
- California
Sooo, @Radvic. In your plan, are you going to warn Jiraiya... at all? Or do anything to mitigate the chance of seal failures besides telling people who have no reason to believe us? Or any understanding of how horrifically dangerous a sealing failure could be?
Because the way it's written, there will inevitably be some moronic genin who hears "amazing weapon" when we say "chakra blade monsters" and "undefined behavior". So in my opinion your plan is more likely to increase the chance of a catastrophic chain failure.
Because the way it's written, there will inevitably be some moronic genin who hears "amazing weapon" when we say "chakra blade monsters" and "undefined behavior". So in my opinion your plan is more likely to increase the chance of a catastrophic chain failure.
Tua
鸡肉面条汤
- Location
- شوربة الدجاج المعكرونة
Indeed. Genin generally don't know about the Watchers and may attempt to weaponize sealing failure because they do not know better.
There are other reasons to keep the potential of sealing failure a secret and only tell Jiraiya but that's one of the more obvious disadvanages, I think.