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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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Oneiros said:
I personally don't really see the point of having Uncle Oro look at the GS. We're better than him so he shouldn't have any insight we don't have as well
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Er, what? It wasn't that long ago that you said the complete opposite:

Oneiros said:
I actually wanted to see how people felt about waiting to see what Oro thinks about how to handle the GS before we invest in ES. Since outside of that the main reason to take it is the mystery box. And If we have the great seal open I'd rather focus on basic survivability first before going for a complete unknown
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Oneiros said:
I def want to wait pulling the trigger on ES since we are about to have Oro take a look at the Great Seal. In fact we should probably check up on that and see how long it will be till he arrives since it has been 3 weeks. If we can solve it now we could just go full sealing and really increase how strong we are rapidly. We are just weeks away from legitimately being the greatest seal master in the world
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Were you just saying that so we didn't invest in ES?

Besides, 2 S-rank sealmasters work faster than one
 
To my understanding, we don't re-download seals that we've already once downloaded, so Hazou himself doesn't benefit much from gazing at the Great Seal again. (and he was unaware of the tiny cracks in it until he physically checked it so it's unlikely any further degradation, if any exists, would be updated into this mental model). Kagome and Orochimaru getting to look at it would be valuable, as would Hazou making a new replica with his better Earthshaping skills, but if there's new insights for Hazou to learn from the Great Seal he probably doesn't need to look at it again to obtain them.

(Plus, in terms of the value of Oro looking at it, this is the Orochimaru that's spent decades doing unfathomable research and studying esoteric lore. Even with Bignumber on our side, Orochimaru sounds like the sorta guy who could make valuable connections to deep lore we've never heard or build off relevant projects he had time to complete years ago.)
 
[X] Interlude: The New Genin Teams

We should at least learn their names before they die horrifically, right?

Shrooms said:
[X] I Like Your Funny Words, Snake Man
Word Count: 297

  • Kei:
    • Kei may trust Ami absolutely, but you don't. If Ami's informed, it wouldn't only let her optimize our plans to mutual benefit; it'd let her improve the outcome according to her preferences at our preferences' expense.
    • Your uncertainty over Ami's preferences, combined with her sheer power to optimize for them, is enough that, by default, you would not inform her — perhaps until much later. If Kei informs her unilaterally, you'd consider that a breach of trust.
    • However, you agree there's mutual benefits to be gained. Thus, a preferred condition:
    • Ami commits to only use information shared in a way that doesn't disadvantage you compared to the counterfactual world in which you opted not to actively involve Ami. This condition is waived once the project reaches a state where uninformed!Ami would've learned of it "naturally". (If we go public with Jiraiya's resurrection, Ami's free to start acting in her own interests.)
      • Implicitly, Ami also commits not to scheme to artificially speed up the waiving of this condition, such as by suggesting a strategy that would, as an unnecessary side-effect, make the project visible to uninformed!Ami.
      • For minor matters, Ami's free to use her model of you. For bigger moves, she gives you an opportunity to veto.
  • Arachnid
    • Sanity check with Kagome/Mari/Kei
    • Hazou arranged for a Snake to visit Arachnid a while ago, and Orochimaru agreed to investigate the Great Seal. Skip to this happening.
    • The Aburame agreed to apply their glass/optics expertise to produce a telescope a few months ago after receiving R&D payment from Hazou. If necessary, Declare they finished a prototype for Kagome's use.
    • Check out Great Seal with your Uncles without getting eaten.
  • Other (Offscreen)
    • Sealing
      • Complete research on Minato's next seal in the chain.
    • Visit Mareo.
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Minor notes:

We should put the FOOM-restriction into effect; we have Mari and Kei's opinion, and my read is hivemind agrees to slow down for a bit.

Should we send Kei some note that we are in fact thinking about how to become better on the involvement dimension, but the immediate GS work is likely to be consuming our focus, so please remind us if you haven't heard anything in a week?

I do not think we deserve a veto over Ami's actions re the project, nor have any way of enforcing it, and so she's unlikely to agree (and if she does, it's vacous) but I think this request is more likely to be a 'oh how cute' kind of moment than taken as any serious insult, so that's fine i guess


Major notes:

Snuncle section is terrifying, tbh. Are we so desperate as to risk Orochimaru's attention again, to improve GS chances? Can we handle this indirectly, with Oro checking out the seal without us being there, and then passing us any of his observation in some brief discussion? The less time spent with Oro and the more he's distracted by other things, the better. It's a very bad outcome if he becomes interested in the seal and wants to discuss it closely and regularly check in on our work
 
Anderkent said:
Major notes:

Snuncle section is terrifying, tbh. Are we so desperate as to risk Orochimaru's attention again, to improve GS chances? Can we handle this indirectly, with Oro checking out the seal without us being there, and then passing us any of his observation in some brief discussion? The less time spent with Oro and the more he's distracted by other things, the better. It's a very bad outcome if he becomes interested in the seal and wants to discuss it closely and regularly check in on our work
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It is the literal end of the world and we still have no clear route to fixing it or killing all the other Dragons, so imo yes, we are that desperate. Honestly I don't think we've been treating it as pressing enough. We tried poking the Kurosawa once and that's about it in terms of bringing other people/resources in. We could improve our offers, reach out to other villages, maybe even Sasori. We asked other Leaf summoners to visit (especially Neji for magic eyes) and they haven't besides maybe Ruri. Akatsuki knows of it, it's not implausible their summoners come by on their own. Mr Edgelord's eyes might come in handy.

Regardless, it seems like our current strategy has been to turtle up until ES does something useful, but there's no reason to bank everything on it.
 
Shrooms said:
It is the literal end of the world and we still have no clear route to fixing it or killing all the other Dragons, so imo yes, we are that desperate. Honestly I don't think we've been treating it as pressing enough. We tried poking the Kurosawa once and that's about it in terms of bringing other people/resources in. We could improve our offers, reach out to other villages, maybe even Sasori. We asked other Leaf summoners to visit (especially Neji for magic eyes) and they haven't besides maybe Ruri. Akatsuki knows of it, it's not implausible their summoners come by on their own. Mr Edgelord's eyes might come in handy.

Regardless, it seems like our current strategy has been to turtle up until ES does something useful, but there's no reason to bank everything on it.
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Fair - I don't have a feel for the end of the world timeline here. It does seem to me that in a couple months we're more likely to be able to work on something with Orochimaru and not end up on the table, but if folks feel the timeline does not allow it, fine.
 
Think we were told reading notes with SC isn't sus so I'll just keep that up.

Hazou notes XP: 3 * 3 * 4 = 36
  • Orochimaru's Sealing notes #3: S:2, B:148, R:0
  • Orochimaru's Sealing notes #4: S:0 B: 21 R: 129
Akane notes XP: 3*3*4 = 36 MedNin, 36 MedKnow
  • Orochimaru's MedKnow notes #3: S: 0, B: 72, R: 3
  • Orochimaru's MedNin notes #3: S: 0, B: 47, R: 28
Noburi notes XP: 9 MedNin, 9 MedKnow
  • Orochimaru's MedKnow notes #3: S: 65, B: 19, R: 16
  • Orochimaru's MedNin notes #3: S: 0, B: 9, R: 66
 
RandomOTP said:
And if someone forgets that we're pausing FOOM, and posts it on accident? Or if there's disagreement within the hivemind about how long we should pause FOOM?
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Honestly We've already been FOOMing for about two weeks. Kei frankly wrong about this and we're just costing ourselves 140 XP for no reason. So if there's disagreement on when we want to restart we can just vote on that then.
 
Shrooms said:
Regardless, it seems like our current strategy has been to turtle up until ES does something useful, but there's no reason to bank everything on it.
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We could, I dunno, look for more pure stone to work with, which has been stated as the reason we can't do 3D sealing.

We don't have to rely on Earthshaping for that. :s
 
One unfortunate thing is, between our choosing not to jump to ES 50, and temporarily loosing FOOM (my read is that it's now everyone in the estate pausing while we're under such scrutiny and in the process of moving), getting to mystery box ES50 is now pushed back yet again. Mind you, getting out sealing and calligraphy up was nice to be productive right now, and we want sealing a high as we can get it before we try any type of roll on the great seal, so I'm not saying it was necessarily a mistake. But I think that at some point soon we're going to run out of time, with meaningful consequences.

Like, if the Dragons wipe out Arachnid, Kagome is basically no longer a summoner, neither he nor we have close access to the seal, and one of our main revenue streams is gone. Plus, each clan they eat, they get stronger. Even if they go to nom on some sharks and krakens in the meantime, or stay need the Butte, eventually it's implied more dragons will come out. Plus, the more aggressive and esoteric they are, the harder it is to reapply HOWS. And, even if we try to get Asuma or Akane to EM the dragons (no guarantee that will work, and will take a while to even be an option), they're pretty much guaranteed to die, even if we're successful.

I don't have any great insight into what we should be doing, aside from more seal reading and investing in ES. But on that note, I'm pre-commiting to only vote for training plans that put XP towards ES until we get it to 50 (with concessions if the plan also boosts a lower stat for pyramid math).
 
The Dragons are so high a threat, they've basically crossed the threshold to not being a threat at all. There's nothing we can do about them until we're powerful enough, but to get powerful enough we need to live. To live we need to not experience sealing failures and make more seals to help us in combat so...it's top priority that is also near the back end of priorities.
 
I am also leaning towards prioritizing the great seal. Necromancy would be great, but we're not anywhere near being able to do it properly or manage the fallout. And the great seal issue is on a more important timer and can't be neglected. I think, quite frankly, it just might not be possible to resurrect Jiraiya before he looses his memories.

Spending too much of our effort on necromancy, at this point, seems like prematurely skipping to the endgame when we aren't yet ready for it.
 
Halberdier said:
One unfortunate thing is, between our choosing not to jump to ES 50, and temporarily loosing FOOM (my read is that it's now everyone in the estate pausing while we're under such scrutiny and in the process of moving), getting to mystery box ES50 is now pushed back yet again. Mind you, getting out sealing and calligraphy up was nice to be productive right now, and we want sealing a high as we can get it before we try any type of roll on the great seal, so I'm not saying it was necessarily a mistake. But I think that at some point soon we're going to run out of time, with meaningful consequences.

Like, if the Dragons wipe out Arachnid, Kagome is basically no longer a summoner, neither he nor we have close access to the seal, and one of our main revenue streams is gone. Plus, each clan they eat, they get stronger. Even if they go to nom on some sharks and krakens in the meantime, or stay need the Butte, eventually it's implied more dragons will come out. Plus, the more aggressive and esoteric they are, the harder it is to reapply HOWS. And, even if we try to get Asuma or Akane to EM the dragons (no guarantee that will work, and will take a while to even be an option), they're pretty much guaranteed to die, even if we're successful.

I don't have any great insight into what we should be doing, aside from more seal reading and investing in ES. But on that note, I'm pre-commiting to only vote for training plans that put XP towards ES until we get it to 50 (with concessions if the plan also boosts a lower stat for pyramid math).
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I'm like 75% sure that the Dragons only kill a Clan when they eat the Clan Boss, so as long as Kumokogo stays away from the Dragons the Arachnid Clan as a whole is fine.

Being Souldrinkers, the Dragons would continue gaining power from the ordinary Arachnids they consume, but they don't seem to be doing this at apocalyptic rates for now, content to laze around and hunt at leisure.

Given my 75% confidence in the initial statement, I'm overall about 70% sure that the situation is stable as-is. Certainly, it's been stable for a good few months now.

The bigger worry of mine is the Great Seal itself. The accounting by the Condors on Archaeopteryx Island suggest that the Dragons were appearing at a fairly rapid rate but have since stopped appearing, which is compelling evidence that the HOWS are properly working, but we still don't know if that's stopping the overall failure of the Great Seal or just slowing it.

So that's the big time worry in my books. The Dragons are a problem that we probably have the time to approach on our own terms without permanent damage (cold comfort to the Arachnid people getting hunted, but if we had a way to stop the Dragons now this would be far less of a situation), while the Great Seal is the part of the problem that's more likely to be on a timer slowly ticking down to apocalypse.

I do agree that making progress on the Dragonwar is the only reasonable top priority for us to have, since it's the fate of all reality at stake. Fortunately for our other goals there's only so much Dragonwar to do at a time, so we can afford to Necromancy and pursue our other various goals, but I don't want to ever forget where our true priorities lie.
 
hey you know what would be cool, if we asked our family which issues they feel are most urgent / best bang-for-buck at this stage

we don't have to go with what they say, but it might make them feel a bit more included 😅

do we have a list of main problems we're oriented towards solving? death, dragons, clan standing in leaf, EM fallout, personal problems?
 
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