If y'all want to help, please figure it out. We've been trying to for a week and it's not happening, so we need to outsource.

I think that there's probably a pile of folks willing to spend the time--where they can find it-- to try to make everything work out there.

To ease tensions, arguing, and/or exhausting back-and-forth there would need to be some amount of "Here is what we want the world to look like since thats what it currently should be in setting" dialogue, preferably with a bit of granularity.

Ideally, we would nail down the price of basic goods at the poor-as-a-farmer level and investigate what sort of money they're worth (in money or goods) then we could stratify economic classes into "Very poor, poor, lower-class, middle-class, upper class, minor noble tier, Daimyo/Lord/King" or something of the sort and then let the Hivemind spend a week or two bootstrapping everything up to try to make things make sense there while still adhering to the boundary conditions of "Keep the world as it has been shown the same."
 
@Velorien and @OliWhail are free to overrule me on any of this, but I'm just done with figuring the economics out, so I say we make it the players' problem.

@eaglejarl @Velorien @OliWhail is this the seal license we are using, or is it the other post(last info threadmark)? Can the one we're not using be removed from the threadmarks just to make things more organized? Apologies if this has already been answered.
Dunno. Am on phone so can't check. Assume latest wins unless the other QMs disagree. I thought the posts were additive.

I already made an estimate for the price of salt:
Please note the dubious nature of the source I am using, which is from quora. Also, the Romans have great infrastructure though technology for making salts likely hadn't changed for millennia.

Edit: It appeared that whatever answer was originally here was either deleted or changed.
Sweet. Thank you for the effort, and the reminder.

What is the Tower price for explosive seals? What is the Leaf open market value for explosive seals?
Dunno. Figure it out, please. They are one of the most basic and widely available seals, so use it as the base of the seal economy.

Gotcha. I'm trying to explore the full ramifications of your ideas to see where they hold up and where things might not sync up right. If I may, what backed your reasoning to keep prices low? The simplest rendition of this situation is the Tower buying seals at or near market rate, so there was probably a good reason to lower the Tower rate well below that, and we could help more if we knew what you were thinking.
The price the Tower pays needs to be low enough that they can afford to buy huge numbers of the things, while also attractive enough to make people want to make them. Maybe there's some other incentive.

We probably also need to add something like "Harvests and therefore overall wealth of Fire are enormously higher than historical because chakra worms or something, but taxes are high so most civilians are still poor." Dunno. We haven't talked about that.

Yeah...Sealmasters are around the order of 1:50 or something like that.
Most of them are pretty junior and cannot make anything sophisticated

EDIT: Could it be possible for there to be some sort of attrition of storage scrolls, or some other force that's taking them out of the available pool? Some ongoing process that most scrolls have to go towards, and can't be reclaimed from?
It's been in our worldbuilding docs for a long time that they do wear out after a certain (slightly variable) number of use, with (un)store times getting longer as it gets to the end of life. We've never worried about it, presuming that Hazō and Kagome make new ones periodically.

We didn't set a limit on the number of uses that I recall, but maybe it's small.
 
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[X] Poll: Hiatus until economics are unfucked

I think we should call for a hiatus, to a similar degree as the Great System Update to FtD.

The main reason I want to call for it is that right now, what's most important is political power. However, since the Goketsu don't have an incredible amount of soft social power that we can levy, the number one thing we can levy is economic strength.

However, if our economic power, both in terms of what we're making and our actual buying power, keeps undergoing wild shifts, we can't actually plan for it. Moreover, each additional plan that requires knowing how much money we're making comes at the cost of inducing even more hotfixes to the economy, thus additionally burdening the task of figuring out the problem.

That's why extra updates going forward would only result in the problem worsening, unless we take the time to step back and actually fix the root issue.

(that's the justification for the hiatus here, I'll get to working out the economics in a mo')
 
I think that there's probably a pile of folks willing to spend the time--where they can find it-- to try to make everything work out there.

To ease tensions, arguing, and/or exhausting back-and-forth there would need to be some amount of "Here is what we want the world to look like since thats what it currently should be in setting" dialogue, preferably with a bit of granularity.

Ideally, we would nail down the price of basic goods at the poor-as-a-farmer level and investigate what sort of money they're worth (in money or goods) then we could stratify economic classes into "Very poor, poor, lower-class, middle-class, upper class, minor noble tier, Daimyo/Lord/King" or something of the sort and then let the Hivemind spend a week or two bootstrapping everything up to try to make things make sense there while still adhering to the boundary conditions of "Keep the world as it has been shown the same."

Cool. Review the story to see what things look like (@faflec ping). If you need other information, put it in player QUINOA.

[X] Poll: Hiatus until economics are unfucked

I think we should call for a hiatus, to a similar degree as the Great System Update to FtD.

The main reason I want to call for it is that right now, what's most important is political power. However, since the Goketsu don't have an incredible amount of soft social power that we can levy, the number one thing we can levy is economic strength.

However, if our economic power, both in terms of what we're making and our actual buying power, keeps undergoing wild shifts, we can't actually plan for it. Moreover, each additional plan that requires knowing how much money we're making comes at the cost of inducing even more hotfixes to the economy, thus additionally burdening the task of figuring out the problem.

That's why extra updates going forward would only result in the problem worsening, unless we take the time to step back and actually fix the root issue.

(that's the justification for the hiatus here, I'll get to working out the economics in a mo')
I'm fine to write interludes for a while.


EDIT: If the wonderful player who approached us with historical price data was comfortable stepping forward, this would be a great time. No pressure.
 
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It's been in our worldbuilding docs for a long time that they do wear out after a certain (slightly variable) number of use, with (un)store times getting longer as it gets to the end of life.

I like this solution a lot, because it naturally produces a secondary civilian market in near-end-of-life storage scrolls.

Ninja cannot afford to wait for things to unstore: when they need things, they need them NOW. Civilians are rarely under that kind of pressure.
 
I don't like interludes but it's something that need fixing. Hopefully, the hivemind's research effort will be quick enough for us to resume the story.
 
@Velorien @OliWhail @eaglejarl I present to you, in hopes of 10 XP and being a bit helpful:

Radvic's Analysis of Plausible Economics in Leaf
Disclaimer: Not an economist by any fashion. Doing some voodoo magic here.​

Abstract: We want to assign cost of living and pay rates for missions. So, let's throw some ballpark numbers around. First, we'll define a variable X from which to base our economic assumptions off of. Second, we will determine how much of this variable is likely available to fund ninja missions. Third, we will determine the relative costs of ninja missions based off their risk factors. Finally, we will solve for X using information given in the quest to determine the costs of missions.

Extra Disclaimer: now, we know that to say Medieval economies operated via "money" is to entirely misunderstand their system (see Manorialism). That said, we're going to do it anyways and just say "Marked for Death is different than medieval economies because magic." With pesky reality out of the way, we can proceed to generating numbers and variables making entirely anachronistic capitalist assumptions. I'll note that the presence of a "merchant council" indicates that these assumptions may have some merit into how MfD works.

Defining X

So, farmers are unlikely to ever see any money in Marked for Death. Why? Because likely, they live in land owned or "protected" by ninja or councils or mayors, or Daimyos, or whatever, and they just keep enough food to survive, and wear rags and stuff they make themselves in their free time. This is pretty similar to our experience in the village in Iron.

Ok, but there are more than just peasant civilians in Marked for Death - they've got a whole medieval structure and a few cities. So, let's look at what's probably the lowest non-peasant class, and most common group in cities, and primary provider of value. Skilled laborers. We'll assume there's some labor classes, e.g. Blacksmiths, florists, sandal-makers, butchers, bakers, etc. There's likely a range of pay depending on the work and skill, but I wouldn't expect it to span more than one order of magnitude. So, let's assign our base money unit X to be "a generic skilled laborer's daily take-home pay." This means that X should be enough to 1) pay for daily food for at least 2 people (children assumption), 2) pay for clothing, 3) pay for a portion of a dwelling (we'll say 50% - assuming that each hovel has 2 skilled laborers paying for it). We'll calculate this value at the end, after relating it to ninja mission pay.


Calculating available Mission Funding

Now, let's estimate how many skilled laborers there are in Fire. We know that Konoha has ~30,000 residents. We also know there are ~1,500 ninja. Presumably, there are also some farmers, bureaucrats, and miscellaneous officials who don't provide goods/services but live in the city. So, let's estimate there to be ~25,000 skilled laborers. This puts us at 25000 X per day for "goods produced in Konoha." Let's assume that there is effectively a 10% overhead which will eventually go to pay for ninja missions. This puts "funding provided for ninja missions by Konoha alone" at ~2500 X per day.

Now, we also know that there are other cities in Leaf. Specifically, there are three, each around 20,000 residents. If we assume 18,000 of each of those are "skilled laborers", this adds an additional 52,000 X per day into the economy, and 5,200 X per day into the ninja fund (Assuming 10% ninja rates).

More generally, we can calculate the ninja fund available by using the formula:

Number_Skilled_Laborers x Percentage_Spent_on_Ninja

Which, in this case is:

77,000 x 0.10 = 7,700

So, this means that the total funding to hire ninja missions in Leaf winds up being ~7700 X per day. This is spread out across ~1,500 ninja. This means that the "average" ninja will make ~5 times what a skilled laborer makes, though this is misleading since the majority of ninja are genin. It seems we are in the right ballpark though, so let's continue.

Numbers of Missions Hired

Now, with a way to relate skilled labor (i.e. cost of living) to ninja funds, let's look at missions.

D-rank. This seems to be just unskilled labor available to people who want it. It's unclear to me why a civilian would hire a ninja to do work they can get the local street urchin to do for a fraction of the price, but I guess if you want to show off your wealth, this is probably a good way to do it. Cost is 20 ryo/hour/ninja. I'd imagine that this is paid for by individual shops and citizens, and so will not assume the funding comes from the 7,700 X per day ninja fund.

C-rank. These missions are necessary for intra-country trade, which is likely a thing many skilled labor shops will want. For instance, if they need to go to a guild meeting at a neighboring town, or want to deliver wares, they'll need a C-rank. If skilled laborers want to harvest materials, they may need a C-rank mission to get an escort. I'd imagine most merchant shops need about one every year. We'll further assume each merchant shop is 5 laborers, and that they can often share resources with 10 of their neighbors. This means we'll need a number of C-ranks a year = #laborers/50 = 77,000 / 50 ~ 1540 C ranks / year.

B-rank. These missions are necessary for inter-country trade, which a minority of skilled labor shops will likely want. Other instances of a B-rank mission would be to deal with problems of ninja or chakra beast origin (e.g. a supply point is inhabited by chakra beasts, ninja are suspected to have done something nefarious to a merchant). Most likely, a guild or collection of shops would want to be able to have cash saved to hire a B-rank mission if needed. I'd expect that guilds pay for this via a membership fee. Like insurance. So, let's assume each collection of 100 merchant shops will have the funding to purchase 1 B-rank a year. This means we'll need a number of B-ranks a year of #laborers/100/5 = 77,000 / 500 ~ 154 B ranks / year.

A-rank. These missions are necessary for starting new ventures in new areas with chakra beasts, long term exploratory caravanning, or harming foreign merchants/guilds. I'd expect most established guilds have the funding to purchase one or two A-ranks a year, as they aren't normally needed, but are probably needed whenever expanding. We'll say an established guild is a collection of ~500 merchant shops, and they need one mission every two years. This means we'll have a number of A-ranks equal to #laborers / 500 / 5 = 77,000 / 2,500 ~ 30.8 A ranks / year.

So. According to these assumptions, this means that D-ranks are likely self-funded by affluent skilled laborers, and assumes that C, B, and A rank missions are funded via a 10% membership fee of skilled laborers by their guild. This means that we have a cash inflow of 7700 X per day to pay for 1580 C ranks, 158 B ranks, and 31.6 A ranks each year. So, multiplying 7700 X by 365 to get the yearly funds, we find that the civilians can afford:

~2,800,000 X monies for 1540 C ranks, 154 B ranks, and 30.8 A ranks. So, we now have a formula relating cost of living (X) to mission costs for C, B, and A rank missions.

2800000X = 1540C + 154B + 30.8A

Ninja Mission Relative Cost (risk) Assessment

Our next task is to assign relative costs between C, B, and A rank missions.


Now, given that there are ~1,500 ninja, spending the time to actually achieve all of these missions is likely relatively simple. This means that we'll want to measure the cost in ninja lives, not in ninja time. So, let's estimate risk. The risk for a C rank mission seems like it should be around 1% risk of loss of life - it's either fighting civilians or normal chakra beasts, but normally just escorting and not really doing anything Risk pretty much only comes from misfiled or misidentified C ranks. No ninja combat is to be expected. As the risk of a B rank mission is equivalent to a C-rank that lasts 2 weeks instead of 2 days, let's say instead of a 99% chance of survive, ninja have a (99%)^7 chance of survival. So, a 93.2% chance of survival. This means the risk for a B rank mission is ~7% risk of loss of life. Finally, A rank missions are likely individually specked out, but, if we assume ninja combat is likely, we'll assume a 50% chance of loss of life. So, if we look at things from the mess of survival expectancy above, we can expect a 50% chance of ninja death with either 70 C rank missions, 8 B rank missions, or 1 A rank mission. Obviously, the ninja you send on the mission will matter greatly for survival ratings, but we're just doing ballpark estimates, so these numbers should be roughly right.

So, this indicates at the cost to ninja is approximately 70C = 8 B = 1 A

Plugging this into our equation above for cost of living to ninja missions, we find:

2800000X = 1540C + 154 (8.75 C) + 30.8 (70 C)
2800000X = 5043.5 C
C ~ 555 X
B ~ 4857 X
A ~ 38862 X

So, we would expect one C rank mission to be approximately 600 day's skilled labor daily pay, One B rank mission to be approximately 4,900 day's skilled labor daily pay, and one A rank mission to be approximately 38,900 day's skilled labor daily pay.

Converting to Ryo

Now, we just need to figure out what an average skilled laborer is paid, and we can answer the question proposed. So, let's look at costs of items. We know that ingredients for one loaf of bread costs 30 ryo, and a gallon of honey costs 1,000 ryo, and a copper kettle costs 150 ryo in Iron. Assuming the value of the ryo is relatively similar in Leaf, it seems reasonable to assume a skilled laborer could purchase approximately 5 loaves of bread a day. Obviously, that's not what they're going to spend their money on, but it should be enough to buy a day's food for 2 people (~3 loaves of bread), and have a reasonable chunk of cash left over to pay for things like rent, clothing, and guild fees. This means one day's skilled labor is 150 ryo.

So, X = 150 ryo

C ~ 555 (150 ryo)
C ~ 80,000 ryo
B ~ 4857 (150 ryo)
B ~ 700,000 ryo
A ~ 38862 (150 ryo)
A ~ 5,800,000 ryo

Conclusion

So with the above order of magnitude assumptions, the cost of living at a humble civilian skilled laborer level (i.e. hovel & low quality food) is ~ 150 ryo per day in Leaf, C rank missions should pay ~ 80,000 ryo, B rank missions should pay ~ 700,000 ryo, and A rank missions should pay ~ 6,000,000 ryo. Feel free to use the above formulas with different input values for things like number of skilled laborers, ninja overhead percentage, mission risk assessments, or daily skilled laborer pay to refine values.
Radvic did this a long time ago, dunno how accurate it still is and much it'll help...

Edit: It's a response to this post:
Here's some general details about how missions work. We're trying to figure out the exact numbers but there's a total absence of QM spoons for the task, and we'd like to get the help of the economically-talented members of the hivemind. Your task: Assign plausible numbers for cost of living in Konoha and attendant rates for mission pay. Your reward: +10 XP and the gratitude of your fellow questers. Let us know what information you need that isn't already available.


More information coming soon, but here's a starter:


Missions are paid by civilians. They go to the Hokage Tower and talk to the desk chūnin to get them filed. There will be some paper shuffling, it will be assigned a rank, the Hokage will sign off (usually a rubber stamp), and then one or more ninja will be assigned when they come available. Mission priority is set by the Tower and missions may not happen immediately if the selected personnel are not available right away. Typically the delay will not be more than a couple of days.

There's a standard scale -- D,C,B, and A-ranks. The ranks are subjective and determined on the spot. Pay varies within levels; clients can choose to pay above the minimum charge in order to increase the priority of their mission. (Note: This isn't a democracy, so ranks and pay are ultimately at the discretion of the Hokage and he can order a mission to cost more if he wants.)

D-rank:
Max Duration: A few hours
Risk: None
Description: Inside Leaf, low economic value, typically given to students and fresh genin. Basically chores. Used as teambuilding exercises. The Tower may not accept such missions if they feel it's a waste of their people's time.
Typical pay: 20 ryo/hour/ninja

C-rank:
Max Duration: 2 days
Risk: Low
Description: Anything outside Leaf is at least C-rank. Typically short-duration, low-risk missions. Little expectation of contact with hostile ninja or significant numbers of chakra beasts. Examples: escort a caravan to another town near Leaf, kill a small group of bandits.
Typical pay:

B-rank:
Max Duration: 2 weeks
Risk: Moderate.
Description Like a C-rank but with a longer duration (2 weeks+) or higher risk. Contact with hostile ninja or chakra beasts is probable. Example: escort a caravan to a city outside of Fire.
Typical pay:

A-rank:
Max Duration: Any
Risk: High
Description: Contact with hostile ninja / chakra beasts certain. Example: search-and-destroy a swath of land to eliminate all threats.
Typical pay:
 
Regarding economics : IMO there's no way to make previous worldbuilding work without having all sealmasters rather filthy rich just from scribing explosive seals.
If you want to keep us poor despite that, simply say that Toad-daddy took out an even bigger loan (expecting us to use sealcrafting, among other things, to make money)

Of course "there's no way" is just asking for the thread to prove me wrong...
 
Sure. Now you move on to the "salt the earth" part.
I was going to go with 'salt the wound'. XD

So guys, perhaps we can help salvage some of our relationship with the Pangolins by offering them things that will be helpful but won't contribute to genocide. Stuff of economic or intelligence use, maybe. Thoughts?
 
Regarding economics : IMO there's no way to make previous worldbuilding work without having all sealmasters rather filthy rich just from scribing explosive seals.
Of course "there's no way" is just asking for the thread to prove me wrong...
Aye.

If you are some punk "I can only scribe explosives" sealmaster, the Tower gives you a shit Chuunin-tier salary and "Scribing explosives" is simply what you do for 40-60 hours a week.
 
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Regarding economics : IMO there's no way to make previous worldbuilding work without having all sealmasters rather filthy rich just from scribing explosive seals.
If you want to keep us poor despite that, simply say that Toad-daddy took out an even bigger loan (expecting us to use sealcrafting, among other things, to make money)

Of course "there's no way" is just asking for the thread to prove me wrong...
You aren't poor. You have a lot of savings and wealth. You also have high expenses.
 
Okay, so based on my previous speculations that the Tower not only sets an artificially low price for seals but almost never declines to purchase them, I speculated that a black market might arise but there's actually a solid countermeasure against that:

Seals are effectively 'signed', the design is unique to a given sealmaster and so if you find a seal on the black market you know who scribed it. This makes any hypothetical black market sealing extremely dangerous because with a bit of research you could be outed and prosecuted even if you take care to conceal everything else.

This whole hypothetical paradigm, where the Tower forces sealmasters to sell them seals for super-low prices and only ever declines if there's already no market, smacks of sealmasters being dealt a pretty raw deal by the Tower, but I'd be willing to accept that if it's what finally makes the books balance.

The individual could claim the seal was purchased legitimately. As long as the summoner sold some of their seals to the tower and the buyer purchased a few it'd provide decent cover. Security would have to somehow count an individual's seal usage to catch on that something was amiss, or search them and find way more seals than they purchased. Whether it's worth doing is another matter that depends on how much the tower marks up seal prices.

Actually, I've just had an idea. What the tower is doing is basically a tax on seals. What we could do is sell the seals to the tower, then purchase them back immediately at the tower's sale price. Then we legally resell the taxed seals for whatever price the market will bear.
 
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Okay, so based on my previous speculations that the Tower not only sets an artificially low price for seals but almost never declines to purchase them, I speculated that a black market might arise but there's actually a solid countermeasure against that:

Seals are effectively 'signed', the design is unique to a given sealmaster and so if you find a seal on the black market you know who scribed it. This makes any hypothetical black market sealing extremely dangerous because with a bit of research you could be outed and prosecuted even if you take care to conceal everything else.

This whole hypothetical paradigm, where the Tower forces sealmasters to sell them seals for super-low prices and only ever declines if there's already no market, smacks of sealmasters being dealt a pretty raw deal by the Tower, but I'd be willing to accept that if it's what finally makes the books balance.
Hmmm. I feel like this would make being a sealmaster in Leaf not really worth it? In my mind, the possible reasons for someone becoming a sealmaster are:
1. Safety. If you get good enough to make explosives without dying then you can basically just sit in Leaf for the rest of your life scribing seals, and never have to go on missions. A sealmaster who successfully does this would have the longest life expectancy in the village.
2. Wealth. Seals are expensive. Logically, making and selling seals should therefore make you rich.

The problem is that safety is mostly countered by the high attrition rate of new sealmasters. You're basically gambling that you won't die horribly, but if you're the guy who gets the jackpot you might live to be 50 or so. People with this motivation would by definition be the type of people to not do any research past basic seals like explosives. However, the Tower is now encouraging sealmasters to learn skywalkers, which would mean they have to do research and thus have a good chance of dying even once they managed to learn explosives. The Tower preventing sealmasters from getting rich also gets rid of the wealth motivation. This means that people have little to no reason to become sealmasters.

I don't think this model would be in the Tower's best interest, although it would reinforce sealmasters as being incredibly rare (since no one would want to be a sealmaster).

Edit:
This doesn't mean that this isn't what they're doing right now, just that I think it's a losing strategy in the long term.
 
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@eaglejarl I'm an economist, the easiest way to do this and produce a semi-reasonable outcome would probably be just to create a bottom-up aggregate model of the Leaf economy. This is not as difficult as it sounds if you have decently wide error bars (~1.5 orders of magnitude, usually less).

The sum economic wealth (as translates to actual goods and services) of a pre-industrial economy can be modeled as a function of its ultimate agricultural output (as food translates directly into labor which translates directly into output; this accounts even for those resources which are directly extracted from the land as extraction still requires fed labor). The labor-multiplying efforts of chakra and seals complicate this model, but we can simply handwave this to say that the gross aggregate output of the nation is roughly equivalent to that of an early industrial civilization: most fields and people have productivity only moderately better than their ancestors, but specialist enclaves of higher technological sophistication exist.

The simplest way to resolve this would just be to use your current prices for everything, but to state that the purchasing power of a "dollar" is equal to that of a 1790 dollar (~$27). This would fit reasonably with the assertion that $3,000 / month is a princely salary. There are still substantial differences from a modern economy but you can capture the majority of them with two statements:

1) Even the very richest individuals are 'merely' millionaires in 1790 dollars, and much of that wealth tied up into illiquid forms such as land, castles, armories and arsenals, etc

2) The value of fine craftsmanship, specialist labor, and processed materials is relatively higher (due to extremely finite supply), while the value of common labor is relatively lower. I think you can maintain normal intuitions around money if you say that one 1790 dollar is equal to $3 modern dollars for purposes of purchasing the former, $100 modern dollars for purposes of purchasing the latter, and $30 for purposes of purchasing raw materials.

Alternatively, if you are going to be making a lot of economic calculations in the future, it would be easier just to have a model you can run. In that case I will need to know the following at a bare minimum:

1) # of hectares that Fire Country has under active cultivation, assuming rice is the staple crop
2) Gross civilian population of Fire Country

This will allow me to derive agricultural surplus and thus effective GDP, and we can use historical "sector-as-a-%-of-GDP" references to derive the total societal budget for a given sector, and eyeball the % of sector budget appropriate to a given line item (like military equipment). That loans exist and are regularly honored allows us to add financialization as an additional abstraction layer if desired. Does Fire Country issue gold-backed or fiat currency?

As an aside, any seals/techniques that result in higher agricultural productivity will have enormously positive knock-on effects on the total wealth of Fire in the medium-term, which is probably already by far the wealthiest nation given its supply of arable land relative to competitors that live in mountains, an island chain, or the desert.
 
Radvic did this a long time ago, dunno how accurate it still is and much it'll help...

Edit: It's a response to this post:

I think Radvic underestimates the value of Jounin time, particularly when you're talking about team missions, so his A-rank estimate is too low; however, I think his estimate based on "value of ninja life" is a better methodology than the straight time calculations I've been doing, and as such I'm probably undervaluing C and B rank missions.

I'd like to emphasize that his methodology checks out: he calculates a similar value to me for the price of D-rank missions, which is one of my least extrapolated values from the real-world data I'm drawing from.
 
Regarding economics : IMO there's no way to make previous worldbuilding work without having all sealmasters rather filthy rich just from scribing explosive seals.
If you want to keep us poor despite that, simply say that Toad-daddy took out an even bigger loan (expecting us to use sealcrafting, among other things, to make money)

Of course "there's no way" is just asking for the thread to prove me wrong...

Consider that Jiraiya was an outlier, and Kagome a terrifying sealmaster, they are not the norm.
Even Hazou, aside from the mechanics, is a extremely talented sealmaster in-story, with a Bloodline limit that helps him massively and Kagome as a teacher.
For all we know the majority of the other sealmasters require significantly more time to make a seal, or two out of five seal are bad, or they need to check every seal they make to be sure they won't explode.
Meanwhile the best sealmasters are taken by the clans and won't help anyone else.
Hyuga Sealmaster will make seals only for Hyuga, and maybe sell some to the other noble clans, so we could have a situation in which

75% Of Sealmaster population: Works too slow/makes too many error/ can't make important seals/Can make only select seals
24% Of Sealmaster population(The good ones):Monopolized by Clans, refuse to give their seals to others and so on
1% Clanless Sealmaster: Jiraiya, rich and powerful person.

About Civilians, no ones gives anything to civilians because, well, they are civilians of course.
Surplus seals are stockpiled for war and generally creating more for the lower classes it's seen as insulting to the sealmaster and....here you go.
 
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By making Hazō the fall guy you can then use his eventual removal as clan head (since Naruto is taking it) to reopen negotiations with the Pangolin as the Goketsu without that sitting between them.

I like that part.

Also, we never set a time limit for the trade, did we? Wouldn't the assumption be that the contract will stay in place until one party cancels it by giving advance notice?

Maybe one month is too little but Keiko isn't breaking the conditions of the contract either since a cancel clause was never decided on.

The price the Tower pays needs to be low enough that they can afford to buy huge numbers of the things, while also attractive enough to make people want to make them. Maybe there's some other incentive.

Does being taxed mean the sealmaster cannot be forced to do missions outside the Village against their will? Because being immune to that sounds like a heck of an incentive and would make the fact that sealmasters have to pay taxes when other ninja don't have to go over better.

I never understood that part, really, because the Tower would want to encourage people to pick up sealing but if you can't make enough money or can't ensure your safety (relative to other ninja who put their XP into combat) then why become a sealmaster?
 
@eaglejarl I'm an economist, the easiest way to do this and produce a semi-reasonable outcome would probably be just to create a bottom-up aggregate model of the Leaf economy. This is not as difficult as it sounds if you have decently wide error bars (~1.5 orders of magnitude, usually less).

The sum economic wealth (as translates to actual goods and services) of a pre-industrial economy can be modeled as a function of its ultimate agricultural output (as food translates directly into labor which translates directly into output; this accounts even for those resources which are directly extracted from the land as extraction still requires fed labor). The labor-multiplying efforts of chakra and seals complicate this model, but we can simply handwave this to say that the gross aggregate output of the nation is roughly equivalent to that of an early industrial civilization: most fields and people have productivity only moderately better than their ancestors, but specialist enclaves of higher technological sophistication exist.

The simplest way to resolve this would just be to use your current prices for everything, but to state that the purchasing power of a "dollar" is equal to that of a 1790 dollar (~$27). This would fit reasonably with the assertion that $3,000 / month is a princely salary. There are still substantial differences from a modern economy but you can capture the majority of them with two statements:

1) Even the very richest individuals are 'merely' millionaires in 1790 dollars, and much of that wealth tied up into illiquid forms such as land, castles, armories and arsenals, etc

2) The value of fine craftsmanship, specialist labor, and processed materials is relatively higher (due to extremely finite supply), while the value of common labor is relatively lower. I think you can maintain normal intuitions around money if you say that one 1790 dollar is equal to $3 modern dollars for purposes of purchasing the former, $100 modern dollars for purposes of purchasing the latter, and $30 for purposes of purchasing raw materials.

Alternatively, if you are going to be making a lot of economic calculations in the future, it would be easier just to have a model you can run. In that case I will need to know the following at a bare minimum:

1) # of hectares that Fire Country has under active cultivation, assuming rice is the staple crop
2) Gross civilian population of Fire Country

This will allow me to derive agricultural surplus and thus effective GDP, and we can use historical "sector-as-a-%-of-GDP" references to derive the total societal budget for a given sector, and eyeball the % of sector budget appropriate to a given line item (like military equipment). That loans exist and are regularly honored allows us to add financialization as an additional abstraction layer if desired. Does Fire Country issue gold-backed or fiat currency?

As an aside, any seals/techniques that result in higher agricultural productivity will have enormously positive knock-on effects on the total wealth of Fire in the medium-term, which is probably already by far the wealthiest nation given its supply of arable land relative to competitors that live in mountains, an island chain, or the desert.
This is awesome, thank you for being willing to do this.
 
As an aside, any seals/techniques that result in higher agricultural productivity will have enormously positive knock-on effects on the total wealth of Fire in the medium-term, which is probably already by far the wealthiest nation given its supply of arable land relative to competitors that live in mountains, an island chain, or the desert.

Till'n'Fill only came into being recently, and ninja is frequently prohibited by the MC to use their ninja magic. Mari seemed to be working on chipping that away though.
 
As Keiko kindly explained, Contract are sacred for all summons, not just the Pangolins.
Hazou taking the fall mean the Toad won't trust us with anything, means that becoming the Snake summoner will be extremely difficult and so on.
On top of that....

Aye, but Hazo immediately said this after.

"No," Hazō said bluntly. "It's not a unilateral termination anyway. They get advance warning and a month's shipment. That's how you're supposed to act when ending an agreement in good faith. Have you spoken to them already?"

Since Keiko said nothing to contradict that after I'm assuming he's correct in that while ending the agreement will create some bad blood it will not trigger the 'contract severing' class of response. I don't recall the exact details of our deal with the Pangolin, but I don't recall it being a lifetime deal with no possibility of cancellation or renegotiation. If so then I retract this observation.


We need to do something about this.
Giving away the information that Jiraiya created the seals could make the other powers assume it was him the dangerous and powerful sealmasters, and that we were taken in for other reasons, like the Pangolin scroll.

How the Toad will take it, or the fact that they have a way to disprove our claims is a problem, i hope that the Toad and Pangolin are not really in stable alliance, and the Toad would just assume the Pangolin are lying.(We should check Jiraiya notes)
If they ask Noburi, he can just explain them that Jiraiya did so to not endanger the Toad and himself...or something.
I admit the problem, but the consequences of taking the fall are massive.
We could just, leave Jiraiya out of this and just say it's Leaf fault?

We do indeed need to do something about that. I just don't think trying for a complete blame push would have the desired results of significantly increasing safety, and also risks the umbrage of whoever we blame it on (if they aren't in on it). For one thing even if we push it to Jiraiya (pushing it on Leaf alone would not create the impression that we are unable to create more) its a logical next step by any potential interested parties to go 'there are other sealmasters in his clan that may know something', and we pushed the sealmaster thing heavily enough at Chunin exams that theres no way they don't know.

Reviewing Jiraiya's notes about the Toads is definitely something that should be done before going ahead with this if you do indeed choose to do so, as the Toads are uniquely positioned to bust whatever deception we try on that end depending on how close they were to Jiraiya beyond the summoner/summoned relationship.
 
Say, could we somehow blame the breaking of the contract on Jiraiya's death? Aside from finding something else to offer them to soften the blow that isn't an aid to genocide, that might be the best option for avoiding diplomatic backlash.
 
I still say the best solution is to work with Shikamaru on this. Get him to order Keiko to sever the contract, graciously allowing her one last shipment. After all, the Nara princess cannot be providing another clan, ally or not, with funding, and the Nara themselves due to *mumble mumble Sane clan things* cannot abide the destabilization of the Summon nations that they cause.
 
@eaglejarl I'm an economist, the easiest way to do this and produce a semi-reasonable outcome would probably be just to create a bottom-up aggregate model of the Leaf economy. This is not as difficult as it sounds if you have decently wide error bars (~1.5 orders of magnitude, usually less).

The sum economic wealth (as translates to actual goods and services) of a pre-industrial economy can be modeled as a function of its ultimate agricultural output (as food translates directly into labor which translates directly into output; this accounts even for those resources which are directly extracted from the land as extraction still requires fed labor). The labor-multiplying efforts of chakra and seals complicate this model, but we can simply handwave this to say that the gross aggregate output of the nation is roughly equivalent to that of an early industrial civilization: most fields and people have productivity only moderately better than their ancestors, but specialist enclaves of higher technological sophistication exist.

The simplest way to resolve this would just be to use your current prices for everything, but to state that the purchasing power of a "dollar" is equal to that of a 1790 dollar (~$27). This would fit reasonably with the assertion that $3,000 / month is a princely salary. There are still substantial differences from a modern economy but you can capture the majority of them with two statements:

1) Even the very richest individuals are 'merely' millionaires in 1790 dollars, and much of that wealth tied up into illiquid forms such as land, castles, armories and arsenals, etc

2) The value of fine craftsmanship, specialist labor, and processed materials is relatively higher (due to extremely finite supply), while the value of common labor is relatively lower. I think you can maintain normal intuitions around money if you say that one 1790 dollar is equal to $3 modern dollars for purposes of purchasing the former, $100 modern dollars for purposes of purchasing the latter, and $30 for purposes of purchasing raw materials.

Alternatively, if you are going to be making a lot of economic calculations in the future, it would be easier just to have a model you can run. In that case I will need to know the following at a bare minimum:

1) # of hectares that Fire Country has under active cultivation, assuming rice is the staple crop
2) Gross civilian population of Fire Country

This will allow me to derive agricultural surplus and thus effective GDP, and we can use historical "sector-as-a-%-of-GDP" references to derive the total societal budget for a given sector, and eyeball the % of sector budget appropriate to a given line item (like military equipment). That loans exist and are regularly honored allows us to add financialization as an additional abstraction layer if desired. Does Fire Country issue gold-backed or fiat currency?

As an aside, any seals/techniques that result in higher agricultural productivity will have enormously positive knock-on effects on the total wealth of Fire in the medium-term, which is probably already by far the wealthiest nation given its supply of arable land relative to competitors that live in mountains, an island chain, or the desert.

Oh thank god an actual economist.

*ceases sweating in undergrad*

That said the EN probably has a lower labor productivity rate than most historical nations as it's "modern" civilization is only a handful of generations old due to insane levels of ninja warring before the first Hokage came around. Moreover ninja don't actually do anything to add to productivity yet chakra beasts and the like actively constrain producitivity.
 
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Till'n'Fill only came into being recently, and ninja is frequently prohibited by the MC to use their ninja magic.

Any society that failed to use chakra for economic expansion (assuming productivity of fully utilized chakra is within 1 order of magnitude of productivity of mid-tier industrialization) would be massively outcompeted by a society without such taboos. 10x more food = 10x more population base = 10x more ninjas. This means not just more jounins but 10x chance of getting an S-rank prodigy. A minor village that rids itself of such a taboo even by accident would have a good chance of growing into a major power.

It's possible that the Malthusian arms race between villages has left minimal spare talent dedicated to research in this field; if so, even better for Hazou, as this would be low-hanging fruit he is ideally positioned to capture.
 
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