War.

--I reluctantly state that if a)war is highly likely and b)if that war is an existential threat to a 'people', those people are 'justified' in pre-emptive strikes, and may have a positive responsibility to do so (and perhaps even very extensive strikes indeed).

-IRL I hate war. I do believe in the right of self defense. I would prefer that Hazo act 'morally', though a) I don't know how much of this community share what amount of my particular moral orientation b) I believe prescriptively we should treat MfD world as containing 'real' people. And having lurked for some time, I think that there is a general 'consensus' on a) (e.g., murder is bad) and b) (we are treating MfD as if the characters are 'real' and are our peeps). c) I care more, and value more, people whom I know than people I do not.

@Inferno Vulpix If this the actual calculus going on in Rock (not disputing, just personally I have no data either way)
My read is that it's a combination of 'they hate us' and 'we're at our weakest'. Rock is hurting, yes, but now's their best chance to lay a smackdown on Leaf before we recover from our losses and surpass them again.
then diplomacy can prevent this war easily, a) if Hiashi wants to and also b)has received a similar projection. (If Hiashi does want this war, well, he is trying to murder us.).

-I just have the strong sense, from listening to Mari, that the war will happen, even if there is a full diplomatic push. (That, to me means is a lot more going on in Rock than just those 2). Of course I may be reading too much into Mari's briefing, but if war is inevitable, that, for me, launches a number of things that 'ought' to be discussed, or at least be top of mind when we are making plans and voting

-I do feel that if such a war unfolds without intevention, there is a high probability of MfD becoming 'our family died'

-So, we may indeed a) have a positive responsibility to drive decisive action, and ought to be prepared for such, at least as contingencies and b) ought to have a framework for assessing how likely this war is & how likely it is to be an existential threat to our family. There may be other components deciding this in the best way that we can

-Obviously one issue, for me at least, is that, I believe, you never are certain about anything [but perhaps a few limited (e.g. mathematical) facts]. Another is that we are ignorant (i.e., we have little to no data, let alone high-quality data), as far as I know, of what Leaf is doing to prevent this war, Hiashi's plans against us, among other things.
 
This'll probably be a controversial thought, and if it's at all contentious to it I'd rather it not be changed...but @Noumero if we're updating Yuno afterwards what's the point of keeping her out of the conversation? Especially in regards to the Isan situation, which she should certainly be able to give good advice for.

Maybe it'd be preferable to have the Isan situation with Yuno, and leave her out of the Cloud religion/Pangolin messages thing?
Yes, I was considering the same thing. Done.
[x] Action Plan: Stick Your Appendages Everywhere
Wordcount: 298
Intended duration: 1 day.

  • Message Keiko to arrive as soon as convenient, to discuss "a Pangolins-related matter".
  • Continue dinner while waiting:
    • Ask Mari to summarize global and local politics to Yuno. "Especially the Hokage's external-politics views."
    • Offer Yuno a guest room.
    • Incidentally, did she speak to Mori Ami?
    • Covertly offer Noburi and Yuno an opportunity to speak privately.
  • Once Keiko arrives, discuss privately (Team Uplift only):
    • What's Mari's take on Isan? Does Keiko want to involve herself? Is Noburi interested in the marriage?
      • Ethically, Isan is heading in a bad direction, and we could help. Pragmatically, it's a good power-grabbing opportunity. You're inclined to go along.
      • Takahashi mentioned "concessions" from Azai — could they be co-conspirators?
    • Ask Kagome about Cloud's religion.
    • Ask Keiko to send messages via Pangolins:
      • To Crows and Sharks: Invitation for Akatsuki to open dialogue.
      • To the Mara Summoner: Invitation to discuss philosophy.
      • Might require political capital with Pangolins. Would she be willing to sell non-combat seals, or wood/food?
  • If you decide to help, discuss attack vectors with Yuno:
    • Challenge Sousuke's religious significance. Summon Pangolins, have them publicly condemn Azai's sacred tapirs as enemies, reveal Sousuke's "visions" as lies.
    • Challenge Sousuke's competence. The SSSSS seems Orochimaru's. Tell Isan's public about who he was; bring some body-horror samples.
    • Contact the SSSSS and turn them against Sousuke by promising funding or Basement samples.
  • Background:
    • Ask Mari to forcefully remind you to discuss outside-context problems with Team Uplift within two days.
    • Ask Tsunade to check Noburi's suitability for Summoning and SC; no time to deal with Kabuto.
    • Buy a tavern/inn damaged by the failure.
    • Schedule a Games Night on February 15/16. Invite Team Gai + Keiko (both important), KEI ninja, other peers.
 
If getting the message through will be that difficult, the Pangolins will probably simply refuse, rather than risk being caught. We can't wait until Noburi is a Summoner; by that point the war will be over.

My point was more about other Clans being able to tell that we contacted the Crows/Sharks. The real message doesn't matter, if hat get's back to Leaf someone is going to ask questions.

If we can't contact them safely, then we can't contact them at all, doesn't matter if there is a war.

Also, let's not pretend that Mari is a 100% reliable source.
 
Voting is closed.
Adhoc vote count started by eaglejarl on Oct 12, 2019 at 2:01 PM, finished with 190 posts and 8 votes.
  • 17

    [x] Action Plan: Stick Your Appendages Everywhere
    [x] Action Plan: Stick Your Appendages Everywhere W/O COMMITTING TO DISCUSSING FORBIDDEN LORE THIS IC WEEK
    [x] Research Plan: People-Eating Explosives
    [X] Training Hazou: You force my hand, I force the earth
    [x] Action Plan: Decrease the Resistance
    [x] Action Plan: The Isan Question
    [x] Action Plan: The Isan Question (But Better)
    [x] Action Plan: Hyuuga and Akatsuki
    [x] Forbidden Lore Update
 
[X] Training Hazou: You force my hand, I force the earth

In the future, research plans can be assigned to all members of team uplift that aren't busy doing training to spread the load. It would be good to test how much strain 5SB and force walls can take before they break.

I did the math for Noburi getting shadow clones. To have 350CP equivalent(he gets 5 times as much chakra per skill point but jutsu cost 3x more), he needs Chakra Reserves level 21, or 1050CP total. Right now he has 10CR, so it would cost him 352XP to bump it up to 21. His character sheet says he currently has 306XP. Assuming 4XP per day, it will take him 12 days to have enough CP for shadow clone(unless the jutsu itself has a special cost). This will mean delaying getting summoning to build up 250XP again, but shadow clone should help gather that XP faster, as well as speeding up learning summoning IC. Shadow clone won't speed up learning things that must be comprehended sequentially, but speeds up anything that can be learned in parallel. If shadow clone boosts daily XP to 5/day, then it would take 50 days to earn enough back for summoning.

If learning summoning normally takes 3 months, then this route gets it done in a little over 2 months if shadow clone halves the time. Meanwhile, Noburi gets to have shadow clone. Anticipating problems with Noburi's bloodline, his shadow clones may have the drawback of his bloodline without the benefit. If that is the case, shadow clones with a pitiful 1CP capacity won't be able to last long without burning through their chakra. To fix this, they would need some kind of chakra drip to constantly fill their 1CP capacity, since such a low maximum can't be meaningfully overloaded. Currently, Noburi can only dole out arbitrary amounts of chakra but only in quantities of water of 1 liter or more. If this can be done more granularly, then the problem goes away, albeit with shadow clones that are effectively civilians.

With training, Noburi may be able to make shadow clones that have standard chakra systems without having to copy his own. If so, then he can test summoning using his shadow clones to avoid any danger that could crop up from his bloodline and circumvent needing Kabuto's help.
One trouble in increasing Noburi's Chakra Reserves to 21 is that Noburi's Skill Pyramid would break if he bumped a 10's stat up to 20. Here's what he looks like right now:
40's: 1 (Water Whip)
30's: 4 (Alertness, Athletics, Syrup Trap, Vampiric Dew)
20's: 6 (Resolve, Empathy, Rapport, Physique, Hozuki's Mantle, Water Dragon Bullet)
10's: 6 (Stealth, CR, MedNin, MedKnow, Presence, Water Clone)
In order to fix this, we'll need two more 10's, or one more 10 and one 20 bumped up to 30. Water Dragon Bullet is level 25 and halfcost up to 40 so it'll only take 70 XP to reach 30 in it. Next we need a level 10 stat, and the fastest thing there is to bump Intimidation up from 9 to 10, costing 10 XP. So 80 XP later we have:
40's: 1 (Water Whip)
30's: 5 (Alertness, Athletics, Syrup Trap, Vampiric Dew, Water Dragon Bullet)
20's: 5 (Resolve, Empathy, Rapport, Physique, Hozuki's Mantle)
10's: 7 (Stealth, CR, MedNin, MedKnow, Presence, Water Clone, Intimidation)
And from there we're free to get CR up to 21.

Further, I would like to mention that given how summoning training takes roughly 4 months and only costs 250 XP, even if we have 0 XP when we start the training we should easily have enough XP to buy the stunt by the end of the training, so until Noburi begins summoning training and even a little further into that we can freely spend the XP he's gained.
 
I kept saying contacting them via Jiraiya's network, but nobody said anything.
I dunno if it's better than the summoner path but it be good to introduce the idea to the others.
@eaglejarl has expressed willingness to put this stuff in Research Study Plans, I'd vote for it and it would give you room to add the above thoughts to your plan.
Although we'd probably reduce our XP production rate if we did this if we are not training.
What if Yuno accepted the marriage offer,
I dunno if she would be willing to. But I suppose Mari could delicately ask her it.
 
Disappointingly low turnout. Any particular reason?

This round, I don 't vote because there are no plans that I believed in. I voiced my objections about the pangolins not being the best way to contact the Crow or Shark because the probability of words getting back to Hiashi is high. I suggested contacting Akatsuki using Jiraiya's network, but that wasn't included.

I also feel frustrated about the direction of the quest is taking and accepted that there is a high probability of death. So I don't try as hard.
 
PSA: We finally have a definite answer to an important question. It has been added to the rules.
various players said:
Can Hazō scribe seals faster/slower than the base 5 minutes? How does that interact with the Iron Nerve?
Hazō can move down the time ladder 1 level, to 10 minutes. Doing so will net him a +(Aspect Bonus) on his roll. Right now that means +3. Going slower that that does not add sufficient extra advantage to be worth a bonus.

Hazō cannot go faster.

The Iron Nerve precisely replicates past actions. Therefore, once Hazō succeeds on a scribing check he is permanently able to succeed on that check at that speed and does not need to roll in the future. Note the "at that speed" proviso.


EDIT:

Currently, Noburi can only dole out arbitrary amounts of chakra but only in quantities of water of 1 liter or more.
0.5 L
 
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The following has been added to the "Economics blah blah blah" Informational threadmark. More subjects are being discussed.


You can fill other sealmasters' quotas for seals, yes. In most cases that means you make the seals and give them to the person in question, who then turns them in.

Skywalkers are a special case since they are not allowed to be given to anyone other than the tower. Procedurally, you're required to go in with the sealmaster that you're supplying them for, simply to ensure that all accounting is done properly & the right person ends up with the money. If Alice and Bill go in together and Alice says "I'm handing these in for Bill", then the Tower rep would hand Bill the money but wouldn't care if he immediately handed it to Alice. The important thing is that you never hand a skywalker to someone not actively working for the Tower.
 
Noburi has not yet begun his summoning training as he needs Dr Yakushi to confirm that it's safe for his bloodline. Dr Yakushi has suddenly become too busy to carry out the necessary tests.

Wait, he hasn't begun training in expectation of approval? He has multiple sources for training, and one would expect that if the second-richest clan of a great power were unable to serve as summoners that would be pretty common knowledge at least within the clan, so that alone is some evidence that it's not the case.


Kagome grew up in Cloud, time for him to explain to us what their weird religion is. Also how does one work in intelligence, learn about weird shit but doesn't know some of their village summoners? Kagome needs to tell us everything he knows!

Kagome was born in Cloud. He was adopted by an unknown and unprecedented orphan sealing sweatshop of unknown affiliation (fucking Whirlpool-cum-Waterfall).


So, there's a hell of a lot to unpack here.

World War is speculated to start up in about a month; everyone has at least one S Class ninja at their disposal with Rock being the most dangerous and the most warmongering. Either we need to contact the Akatsuki, like, right now (maybe by having the Pangolin contact their summons and bring the message of world peace to get them to contact us?), or we need to prepare to decisively defeat Rock and project enough force to ensure the other villages don't see Leaf as an easy target. I prefer option one, but both are doable.

On Yuno, the whole situation is a clusterfuck. For her to not flip to the Hyuuga (and thus have us essentially abandon Isan to them) Noburi has to be a summoner. The only person who can verify that for him (besides maybe Tsunade) is Kabuto, and we are currently playing chicken with him about the Basement. We'll almost assuredly have to give up some sort of concession on that point in order for him to vet Noburi.

Isan is also essentially revealing itself before the world stage right before a giant world war, and is making itself a target that has a shit ton of natural reasources but no S class ninja to defend itself, so good fucking luck lol.

Great Update @Velorien

Mist is friend now. Ask his clan.


Okay, what should be our immediate response to Yuno here? Call Keiko immediately, fill her in on Leaf's internal politics situation, offer her a guest room, kill her immediately to deny Hiashi resources, or...? I'm writing a plan.

The compound is pretty packed what with all the guests right now. She'll probably have to bunk up with somebody. Hazou should helpfully mention that Noburi has gotten over his bedwetting problem and mastered his ineffective dragon since "The Hinata Affair."

What's Hazou's dodge check again?


We are undoubtedly not the first to consider contacting Akatsuki. They're some of the strongest S-rankers in the world. Probably they're considering their options.

"All our operators are currently busy. Your call will be answered in the order it was received."


Yuno appears to have some weirdly disparate knowledge. She knows who Keiko is and where she is from from the Chuunin Exams, okay. She knows that Noburi, Noburi specifically, not "a Gouketsu", is a summoner candidate — how? And how she doesn't, at the same time, know that Keiko is now a Nara — a much more public fact?

Someone deliberately pointed her in our direction, and I don't see why an ISC member would have done that, let alone Hiashi. What other allies do we have? Tsunade, Naruto, KEI ninja? Don't fit either.

I'm pretty sure Ami talked to her. I hope the octocat plushie is ready.

Fair point.

Hyuuga could have simply decided that it was a convenient way to get Gouketsu out of his hair while eliminating the bargaining value of one of their prime marriage potentialities. After all, the presumed alternative would be Gouketsu marrying Leaf citizens. Besides, if Noburi becomes invested, he can exploit her foreign status and his Hokage position to extort the clan.


WATER RESISTANCE TRAINING

So I've been thinking about an interesting training method that's been kicking in the back of my noggin for a bit. I was inspired by a comment about sparring with Rock Lee in water and modern exercise methods.

Kept googling until I found something on ancient Japanese swimming. The search brought up something called Suijutsu; an area involving balancing, swimming, fighting, and escape techniques in water while wearing armor.

Suijutsu

I assumed that Mist would be the one to most develop Suijutsu since water, swimming, and 7 swordsmen are their thing. I do see some limitations with this for Hazo though(I'm no fitness expert):

  1. Need a body of water or pool.
  2. The expense of pool maintenance
  3. Hazo wouldn't know any of the skills involved that would be useful efficient moves, exercises, techniques, etc.
  4. Need to rework your balance and moves you do have for the pool. (Not sure if IN can be used)
  5. Water resistance is useful up to a point (Non-athletes or civies would burn fat, gain speed, endurance, flexibility, and strength. Real-world athletes and ninja can already achieve their max work-out intensity and weight resistance on land, so little to no gains. Their joints are spared though. Also more wholistic workouts)

Besides the limits, it's useful that water is acknowledged as a training tool in Mist and there was a real-world equivalent; The underlying stuff is what I want to work on. I'm counting on Hazo having a general idea about how water can provide training benefits through water resistance. The only problem is that regular water might not be enough to really push him the way it would a regular genin or what's needed for WW4; He needs something to provide more resistance than what he can get from regular weights on land. He needs extra weights or he has to increase the viscosity of a pool he's in?

As for the benefits I see this could be good for taijutsu, athletics, physique, and maybe melee weapons.

Water properties and application for Training
Aquatic Cross Training for Athletes

Thoughts?

"Hazou, why is why is Rock Lee filling the hotsprings with maple syrup?"
 
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Wait, he hasn't begun training in expectation of approval? He has multiple sources for training, and one would expect that if the second-richest clan of a great power were unable to serve as summoners that would be pretty common knowledge at least within the clan, so that alone is some evidence that it's not the case.
We want a mednin to ok the Nobbs learning summoning and shadow clone in case his bloodline has weird interactions with it.
 
One strategic tactic in war might be to run in, kill as many genin/academy students as you can, and run out when the better ninja come. Wouldn't affect current combat potential but would cripple medium term future combat potential.
 
The following is a non-confirmed quote from eaglejarl on the discord about ninja demographics that he wants checked for plausibility:
The average genin graduates at 12 and dies at 16-18. A large plurality of those who make it to chūnin (typically around the age of 18) die within a year due to suddenly being sent on more difficult missions. Those who make it past that first year will probably make it to 22-25, at which point they get promoted to jōnin or special jōnin. Jōnin have another high-mortality year after promotion and nearly all of them die within 5 years. Those who make it past 30 are likely going to become S-rank badasses who are able to live to 60 or 70 before dying of relatively natural causes like old age or disease.
Now, as a recap, Konoha in a 'stable state' (i.e. before the USoUD and BotG) has about 1200 Genin, 250 Chuunin, and 50 Jounin. Okay, let's go.

Genin:
Genin have a fairly even death rate here, let's average that out and say that a Genin lives from 12 to 17, five years. This means that 240 Genin die, get promoted, or go missing a year and 240 Genin graduate from the Academy each year.

Chuunin:
Chuunin can be put in two groups: doomed Chuunin and Jounin-track Chuunin. Doomed Chuunin die in less than a year, let's round that off to a flat year for simplicity. Jounin-track Chuunin stay Chuunin for about six years before becoming Jounin. This means that for every year of Doomed Chuunin there are six years of Jounin-track Chuunin to work with.

There are 250 Chuunin in Konoha. If 2/3 of new Chuunin are doomed Chuunin, then there are (1/3 * 6) = 2 years of Chuunin, 3 times as many Jounin-track Chuunin as doomed Chuunin walking around at a given moment. That means there are about 190 Jounin-track Chuunin and about 60 doomed Chuunin in Konoha.

This amounts to a draw of about 90 Genin a year, meaning that of the 240 Genin that graduate from the Academy, about 150 will die as Genin, about 60 will die as doomed Chuunin, and about 30 will likely hit Jounin.

Jounin:
There are three categories for Jounin here: doomed Jounin, regular Jounin, and S-track Jounin. Doomed Jounin die within the first year, and the regular Jounin population die within five years (let's say an average of 3), leaving only the S-track Jounin alive beyond that.

There are 50 Jounin in Leaf in a stable state. That means that there's one year of doomed Jounin, three years of regular Jounin, and something like thirty years of S-rank Jounin that together equal 50.

Starting from the S-rankers, let's make a generous estimate that Konoha averages about 5 S-rankers normally. That drops our Jounin pool down to 45 between the doomed and regular Jounin.

At a draw of 30 new Jounin per year, n of them are doomed Jounin and m of them are regular Jounin. With a total non-S-track Jounin population of about 45, we get the following equations: n + 3m = 45 and n + m = 30. Rearrange for n = 30 - m and substitute as (30 - m) + 3m = 45 and solve for m = 7.5. Round that off and we can conclude that of the 30 new Jounin Leaf gets each year, 22 of them are doomed Jounin and 8 of them are Regular Jounin. Or, in other words, 73% of Jounin die in their first year and 27% die within five years.

(S-rankers have been omitted from these calculations because 5 S-rankers at 30 years per S-ranker is one S-ranker every six years, a rounding error of the Jounin population).

In Conclusion:
Taking the not confirmed numbers eaglejarl provided on discord and making a few small assumptions to extrapolate from them:
  • The Academy class size is something like 240 Genin a year.
  • About 150 of those Genin (63%) will die as a Genin, and the other 90 will be promoted to Chuunin.
  • About 60 of those Chuunin (67%) will die within a year, and the other 30 will be promoted to Jounin.
  • About 22 of those Jounin (73%) will die within a year, and the rest will die within five years.
  • S-rankers are a rounding error.
edit: math error in Chuunin calcs.
edit2: improved Jounin model and fixed calcs.
 
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The following is a non-confirmed quote from eaglejarl on the discord about ninja demographics that he wants checked for plausibility:

Now, as a recap, Konoha in a 'stable state' (i.e. before the USoUD and BotG) has about 1200 Genin, 250 Chuunin, and 50 Jounin. Okay, let's go.

Genin:
Genin have a fairly even death rate here, let's average that out and say that a Genin lives from 12 to 17, five years. This means that 240 Genin die, get promoted, or go missing a year and 240 Genin graduate from the Academy each year.

Chuunin:
Chuunin can be put in two groups: doomed Chuunin and Jounin-track Chuunin. Doomed Chuunin die in less than a year, let's round that off to a flat year for simplicity. Jounin-track Chuunin stay Chuunin for about six years before becoming Jounin. This means that for every year of Doomed Chuunin there are six years of Jounin-track Chuunin to work with.

There are 250 Chuunin in Konoha. If 2/3 of new Chuunin are doomed Chuunin, then there are (1/3 * 6) = 2 years of Chuunin, 3 times as many Jounin-track Chuunin as doomed Chuunin walking around at a given moment. That means there are about 190 Jounin-track Chuunin and about 60 doomed Chuunin in Konoha.

This amounts to a draw of about 90 Genin a year, meaning that of the 240 Genin that graduate from the Academy, about 150 will die as Genin, about 60 will die as doomed Chuunin, and about 30 will likely hit Jounin.

Jounin:
There are three categories for Jounin here: doomed Jounin, regular Jounin, and S-track Jounin. Doomed Jounin die within the first year, and the regular Jounin population die within five years (let's say an average of 3), leaving only the S-track Jounin alive beyond that.

There are 50 Jounin in Leaf in a stable state. That means that there's one year of doomed Jounin, three years of regular Jounin, and something like thirty years of S-rank Jounin that together equal 50.

Starting from the S-rankers, let's make a generous estimate that Konoha averages about 5 S-rankers normally. That drops our Jounin pool down to 45 between the doomed and regular Jounin.

At a draw of 20 new Jounin per year, n of them are doomed Jounin and m of them are regular Jounin. With a total non-S-track Jounin population of about 45, we get the following equations: n + 3m = 45 and n + m = 30. Rearrange for n = 30 - m and substitute as (30 - m) + 3m = 45 and solve for m = 7.5. Round that off and we can conclude that of the 30 new Jounin Leaf gets each year, 22 of them are doomed Jounin and 8 of them are Regular Jounin. Or, in other words, 73% of Jounin die in their first year and 27% die within five years.

(S-rankers have been omitted from these calculations because 5 S-rankers at 30 years per S-ranker is one S-ranker every six years, a rounding error of the Jounin population).

In Conclusion:
Taking the not confirmed numbers eaglejarl provided on discord and making a few small assumptions to extrapolate from them:
  • The Academy class size is something like 240 Genin a year.
  • About 150 of those Genin (63%) will die as a Genin, and the other 90 will be promoted to Chuunin.
  • About 60 of those Chuunin (67%) will die within a year, and the other 30 will be promoted to Jounin.
  • About 22 of those Jounin (73%) will die within a year, and the rest will die within five years.
  • S-rankers are a rounding error.
edit: math error in Chuunin calcs.
edit2: improved Jounin model and fixed calcs.
Does this mean that there are ~+15 jounin per year in Konoha?
 
Modified FW seals to be smaller, and create weird lightsaber-analogues? I mean, beyond that, all I can think of is weaponizing Macerators with different payloads, but that isn't seal research so much as experimenting with the functionality of existing seals.

Speaking of Macerators, though, I wonder what would happen if we introduced temperature changes to our payloads? Maybe chemical reactions, by forcing otherwise inert materials into combining into something appropriately horrifying by adding extremely hot materials, that wouldn't be possible the normal way due to byproducts or something? Or maybe just add molten iron with cold water or ice and make another massive bomb.
If we're looking for useful macerator payloads for use in WW4, I believe that @Lailoken had some good ideas. I think I remember that one was called the Emerald City seal, because it more or less turned targets into glass statues? This seems like it would be the time to look into some of his ideas. After all, the Geneva Conventions don't exist in the EN. :D


Disappointingly low turnout. Any particular reason?
I somewhat kept up with the thread, but didn't have enough time to pick out the differences between each plan (and it looked like there were quite a few, although maybe that was mostly research/training plans) because of having lots of stuff to do irl.
 
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