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@Rihaku I thought a large part of why villages hunt missing-nin was to prevent village secrets from falling into enemy hands. This seems important to factor into a cost-benefit analysis, especially if it's well known that Leaf has transplanted bloodlines before (see Kakashi's eye), and experienced jounin are included in the defectors (who know many clan secrets).

Yes, but this was addressed in part 4 (it's super long, I know) -

If these shinobi had critical artifacts we couldn't let fall into the wrong hands or something, that would be different, but they don't have anything like that because we sent them into battle as our means of killing them. We would have to have been holding the idiot ball to kill them this way if their capture could damage Mist; anything can happen in battle, after all.

---

Where does it say this? The only mention of spending 1XP to 'buy' things is when we gamble a roll of the dice to "pass a challenge at skill level 1" with us losing=permanent loss of XP.

Yes, which is why we spend chakra to boost the skill and make success likely, or only buy skills on unopposed checks. Chakra-boosting is extemely reliable due to the nature of the die system. Please read the thread fully because I've covered this three times already.

@veekie I proposed a bloodline that makes the henge not break in one hit. Even if it breaks in one hit turning into a bird is already a big thing and I can't believe nobody thought of that before.

Yeah, we need to get confirmation on the nature of henge. If it's a physical shapeshift vs the canon explanation of an illusion, that could be promising even if it breaks in one hit. I would really rather not spend XP on techniques, though, since they're less broad than skills and cost Chakra to even use.
 
There is no reason for us to learn Level 1 Skills with valuable time.
Yes there is, if we fail the check then the XP is wasted.

@eaglejarl @Velorien @AugSphere What is the nature of the transformation? Does effective size and/or mass actually change? How robust is it, does it stand up to a hit? Do we have to concentrate on the transformation to sustain it? Do we have to concentrate on it to make it appear realistic? How easy is it for the average ninja to detect? The average jounin?

Same questions about the clone, minus effective size and mass.
I would really rather not spend XP on techniques
You think we can make it through this game without using chakra? Why did you put points in Capacity? Never mind, the only skill that uses Capacity is free.
 
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Sorry if my arguments seem terrible I'm horrible at articulating them. Getting practice is good, though.
1) How Shikigami knew (or was confident enough in his suspicions to kill) the mission was suicidal. This is a VERY high bar to cross. If the Mizukage didn't intend the mission to be suicidal, and Shikigami didn't intend to frame it as suicidal, how would he come to the conclusion that it was suicidal? I can see some examples, but they all add extreme amounts of added complexity.

My theory doesn't assume any of these things. My theory posits that some enemy force got these papers to the camp and snuck them into a position where Shikigami or another Jonin would find out. The Mizukage could have intended to have the shinobi all killed, or not. It doesn't matter; what matters is that the papers were forged, or were the originals, and thus planted there.

And it also answers the question of why were the damn papers there in the first place no rational person would have brought them along on a suicide mission

2) How this person is so good at master planning that they can predict otherwise unpredictable outcomes like the results of a battle between 12 jounin, because who would gamble on a plan this stupidly complex unless they had some guaranteed, and massive, benefit?

He doesn't need to be a genius to realize that the survivors are almost certainly going to FUBAR the fuck away from Kiri, what else are they going to do, go back? You said yourself they couldn't possibly be that stupid. And that means they're going to hide in a neighboring country, and in their desperation leave signs that they're here. Tensions, increase. Doesn't necessarily have to be Konoha; Kiri borders Hot Springs, Frost, and fucking Lightning.

The worst case scenario, where all the guys died...oh well, we'll write it off as a loss and try again with some other force that's being mobilized. It's not like we can't try again.
 
My theory posits that some enemy force got these papers to the camp and snuck them into a position where Shikigami or another Jonin would find out.
Either the mission commander or Shikigami-sensei would have to have forged (or be complicit in the forgery of) the papers, as it was their altercation that started the whole thing. Unless the commander didn't get his orders to send his entire squad to certain death in person.
 
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@transfuturist: The commander could have gotten official mission orders that did not involve suicide, and some plant got the papers into the office. Shikigami sees them, goes -ragemode-. Commander denies the papers are real. Shikigami disagrees. They fight.
 
Yes there is, if we fail the check then the XP is wasted.

No, the expected value calculation strongly favors a flexible-spend rather than fixed-spend strategy, once chakra empowerment enters the equation. We can hit 4 dice in a level 1 Skill if we need to, which is Sasuke level. Our bloodline also gives us +1 to physical skills. Average genin Skill is probably 2. The chance of 4 dice losing to 2 in this system is less than 15%. The expected value for an average contest is thus .85 XP, approaching 1 XP for physical skills.

On the other hand, if we buy techniques that we didn't actually need, or don't end up rolling, the XP is 100% wasted. What is your anterior probability of a given technique we buy being useful? Probably pretty high, but no one can predict the future and a confident guesser would be ill-advised to say more than 70%, while a conservative guesser might say less than 40%. That results in an expected value of .7 to less than .4 XP, unless you are confident enough in the future to predict better than 85% accuracy on your skill choices.

This is especially true given the nature of the rolling system. Conflicts are resolved on a single-roll-per-turn metric, or as close as possible. If in close range, we contest all enemy actions with Taijutsu. If not in close range, we can use Taijutsu to contest all ranged attacks that do not generate an AoE large enough to make dodging impractical. If forced to use Tactical movement we can benefit from our bloodline and chakra boosts, so see the first paragraph.

If we are not in conflict, then it's an unopposed roll, and our chances with chakra boost are even better.

You think we can make it through this game without using chakra? Why did you put points in Capacity?

I'm not sure if you're trying to strawman, but Chakra can be used to expand dice pools. Dice pool expansion is much better than enabling a technique with a low dicepool, especially on opposed checks. We can hit a peak combat output of 9 dice if we need to (and fall unconscious afterwards), using taijutsu. Every technique we use cuts that peak output by 1 die.
 
the gators (the only monsters in the swamp)

*stares in disbelief*

*snickers*

*cackles*

*explodes in giant evil guffaws that soon have him panting for breath*

"Only monsters..." (Wipes tear of laughter from eyes.) Good one.


Gosh, I just wanted to force these things to obey the rules of physics, if at least for a moment... But noo, superfast superagile gigantic alligators all the way.

<tongue in cheek> "Obey the laws of physics"? Dude...hyperleaping ninja with creation of mass and energy! </tongue>

Okay, more seriously: I should have explained why I was ruling as I was instead of just being flippant; after all, if I don't help us get on the same page then we're both wasting our time.

The reason I'm axing most of your proposals is because they fall into one or both of the following categories:

1) "This is an X except it's not." Trying to work around the normal balance structures is automatically going to get extra scrutiny applied, and is more likely to get a summary 'no' if anything seems even remotely objectionable. Furthermore, when you come up with things like "This is a low-chakra cost thing that is better at disabling the jonin and supergators that we can't beat and virtually useless against genin like us"...well, hopefully you see my objection.

2) "This is [awesome thing that should be a really powerful jutsu / seal / bloodline / etc], except it's just a skill and therefore anyone can learn it." This is where the Goddess of Love and Sex comes from.

My intended effect was something like a Heroin-enhanced interrogation in reverse: manipulate the user's sensations and emotions regarding the idea you're suggesting for quickly overpowering will. Once the jutsu ends, the user does not get artificially boosted endorphins when they think about the idea you suggested, so they'll return to analyzing it rationally. This would quickly lead to your suggestions being dismissed... But most people rarely rethink something they believe in.

The problem here is "quickly overpowering will." Again, you're talking about a mechanical solution to threats that you couldn't otherwise handle. Hazou can already beat down most of what's in his own weight class. Major threats are there to create challenge, to make you fight smart instead of strong. If you simply spend thirty points to make these threats into non-threats then all that's happened is that everyone has been robbed of some exciting storytelling. To be very clear: I am sure you were dealing in good faith, but you were solving the wrong problems -- work on proposing things that are interesting and munchkinable instead of just instant win buttons.

Chakra battery could power, if not the MC, but a third member of the team for strong ninjutsu.... But also ALLOW US TO USE STRONG CHAKRA ENHANCED +1s TO PHYSICAL SKILLS ALL THE TIME.

Hey, I was all aboard with the chakra battery. I think it's a great power; it's very team-oriented -- not directly useful on its own but it's got amazing synergy with everything.

[the time-space skill]
You can add restrictions. It's basically sealcraft without a seal... A storage seal can pour out a river of water or hundreds of explosive tags in an instant, requiring the work of a sealmaster to do so. I added restrictions (movement, volume, preparation ect.) in exchange for a removal of the necessary sealwork. I don't see yow overpowered it would be in the Naruto universe.

Check what I wrote -- I was objecting to the fact that it was a skill. I said that "If you want to do it as a bloodline...maybe. This would definitely involve a lot of discussion among the staff."

Oh come on, by playing thugs for an mafia boss, we'll be beating up people instead of killing them, and we'll grant ourselves good cover, thus overall, rationally, doing the right thing!

:D

Bah! Don't try to change my mind with your "logic" and "utilitarian ethics"! Bah! *waves stick* Get off my lawn!


How about another round of: is this bloodline/clan hidden-technique possible? These are from fanfics I planned for Naruto, but didn't use yet.

Ironblood: This person's blood behaves much like Kubikiribocho. It turns into iron with the application of chakra and obviously, user's health. For added squick a member of this clan was turned into the regenerating sword by some insane scientist/blacksmith.

That's not that squicky...

If this is possibly too weak then maybe the user also has the ability to drink blood to replenish his own stores of iron.

...aaaaand, there we go.

How exactly do you see this being used?


Light release: This person can emanate various light frequencies. I don't mean like lasers, I mean like glow in the dark. Should the person get really, really good at this and have big stores of chakra, the light can be turned into an intensity too bright to look at and would generate a big amount of heat the user is immune to. Alternatively a short burst of chakra can create a blinding flash. Otherwise this is just glow-in-the-dark power.

I would be fine with this, but it's way under-specced for 30 points.


Mind-meld: This person can control one mammal no bigger than their fist per each arbitrary chakra point per hour(or something like that). Is good for scouting, but shit for combat since I don't know any threatening mammals that are this small.

If you're burning 30 points on it I'd give you fish and birds as well, and let it be up to the size of an average person's head (so you can get large housecats and small dogs too [think "Pomeranian"). The critter won't fight for you, though. For a cheap chakra price you'd get the ability to replay its recent memories whenever you were touch it, allowing you to see through its senses. Subject to discussion with the other GMs, I'd let you have at-range sight and sound through its sense, but it requires you to stand still, concentrate, and your local awareness goes almost to zero.

Hawkeye: This dojutsu has a really good eyesight, complete with zoom and the processing power so that you aren't confused by what you see when zoomed. Essentially a shittier byakugan, since there's no chakra or X-ray vision.

That's really under-specced but sure, you can have it.

Chakra-shell: Chakra constructs from this person start getting some physical properties that make them not dispell after one hit. This greatly enhances the viability of henge and shadow clones, but not much else.

That's an interesting one. I'd allow it, although we'd need to work out the details.

Demon-hands: This person has six, freaky fingers on each hand making standard handseals impossible. On the other hand they can use an entirely new set of handseals they were forced to figure out and can cast two jutsu independantly with each hand (provided they can split the attention) Pros: two actions simultaneously Cons: Can't learn existing techniques from anyone else and has to invent their own.

You mean two jutsu total, right? One in each hand? What you actually wrote was "two jutsu...with each hand" which adds up to four.

Assuming you meant two, I'd be inclined to say yes. I'd need to talk to the others, though.


First Update Observations

I'm not going to do one of these for every update, but let's take a look at the worldstate through the eyes of our enemies here. Interesting things to note:

First of all, that's a really impressive analysis and it was a really cool read; thanks for writing it.

Second, there was one invalid assumption you made; see my next post.

EDIT: It occurred to me after I posted it that you might think I was casting you in the role of Ueda-san and taking a shot. I am not, and I hope it didn't seem that way; it sort of wrote itself.
 
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As a quick note: unless you want to do optical illusions or details, fire or lightning powers are a likely to be fine for most light and flash effects. When we have some time and points, I was even going to suggest a lightning flash power to go an aid to getting into stealth.
 
Sorry if my arguments seem terrible I'm horrible at articulating them. Getting practice is good, though.

My theory doesn't assume any of these things. My theory posits that some enemy force got these papers to the camp and snuck them into a position where Shikigami or another Jonin would find out. The Mizukage could have intended to have the shinobi all killed, or not. It doesn't matter; what matters is that the papers were forged, or were the originals, and thus planted there.

And it also answers the question of why were the damn papers there in the first place no rational person would have brought them along on a suicide mission

So you think someone snuck into a camp with over 12 jounin, planted stuff in the most heavily guarded place in that camp, and got out undetected, while also having the assets to validate the (presumably extremely hard to verify) Mist official order forgery? It might be possible, but that's a lot of complexity for a payoff that might not even occur - why would any other jounins enter the commander's tent? If the commander sees random shady documents that didn't come from the Mizukage in his tent, documents that would lead to instant sedition, why wouldn't he just destroy them?

More important, I'm pretty sure Shikigami didn't go into the commander's tent until after they fought, so the order of events you describe cannot happen.

I can think of one reason why the papers exist: since this a blackest of black ops, the commander was not told of the mission until he went to the Mizukage to receive it. The Mizukage gave him the papers to confirm for sure that this was warranted and happening, probably telling him to destroy them after reading. The commander kept the papers for insurance - so that, when he returns from battle the sole survivor, the Mizukage can't throw him under the bus for being a horrific tactical commander and possible traitor that got his entire 50+ ninja team killed and yet somehow lived to tell the tale. I mean, imagine being that guy. The cover story totally fucks that guy; he just seems like a completely incompetent dunce.

He doesn't need to be a genius to realize that the survivors are almost certainly going to FUBAR the fuck away from Kiri, what else are they going to do, go back? You said yourself they couldn't possibly be that stupid. And that means they're going to hide in a neighboring country, and in their desperation leave signs that they're here. Tensions, increase. Doesn't necessarily have to be Konoha; Kiri borders Hot Springs, Frost, and fucking Lightning.

The worst case scenario, where all the guys died...oh well, we'll write it off as a loss and try again with some other force that's being mobilized. It's not like we can't try again.

In that case, the only instigators would have to not work for a Hidden Village and not care about ANY knock-on effects that affect ANY village as long as destabilization is achieved. Unless Akatsuki's motives have totally changed, even they don't want this, so I'm struggling to see who benefits from this plan.
 
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@Rihaku, I've suggested that one of the Jonin who "fled to Kiri" may have been the perpetrator. It would require him only to be competent enough to sneak the papers into the commander's tent, in such a way that it would be discovered by someone.

Also:
But after a week's travel came the night when things went wrong. Raised voices coming from the commander's tent. The ring of steel on steel. Then, before any of you could get close, a brilliant flash of light that could only have been ninjutsu. After a second's silence, Shikigami-sensei emerged from the tent, covered in blood. The commander did not.
 
@Rihaku, I've suggested that one of the Jonin who "fled to Kiri" may have been the perpetrator. It would require him only to be competent enough to sneak the papers into the commander's tent, in such a way that it would be discovered by someone.

I see, that does simplify things a bit. But it would still be extremely convoluted, and subject to the following:

1. Any "lone survivor" of a battle that large will be intensely interrogated. I wouldn't bet on anyone holding out for long against their interrogators.

2. It does not explain why such a massive force was mobilized in the first place, given peacetime. The "suicide mission" plan at least covers that.

3. It is an extremely unreliable plan because, if the papers are placed where someone would easily find them, the person most likely to find them is the commander, who'd be extremely confused and destroy them. If they are placed where someone wouldn't find them, then they can't be used to incite anything.

4. The inciting jounin could get around 3) by telling Shikigami that there are such papers in such areas, but then once he flees Shikigami will immediately understand what happened and would not have led us to Fire, but would instead have sent messengers back to Mist while hunting down the guy who told him.

There are ways to get around 1, 2, 3, and 4, but they involve seriously improbable chains of events.
 
Chapter 1.1: Pillow Talk
Chapter 1.1: Pillow Talk

The three genin were struggling to stay awake by the time the next team came out to take watch. Gratefully, they handed over the duty and stumbled to their bedrolls.

Just as he was pulling his blanket over himself, eager to bid goodbye to the last of this miserable day, Hazō's attention was caught by a whispered conversation between two chūnin sharing a bedroll a few yards away.

"They wouldn't really send Captain Zabuza after us, would they?" Ueda said fearfully. The man was built like an oxcart — at least six foot eight, massive shoulders, and a chest that Hazō would have had to stretch to reach around. Despite his imposing presence, the chūnin seemed honestly frightened at the thought of the Demon Swordsman coming after them. "I mean...they'd be losing a ton of money taking him off missions, right? And besides, they wouldn't give him permission to go into Fire. It could start a war...right?"

Saito Kaho was the exact opposite of her bedmate's physique: tiny, willowy...a very stupid person might have said 'delicate'. She laughed, running her fingers vigorously through her long black hair to loosen it from its carefully out-the-way battle-ready updo.

"Come on, lover, you know this," she said, combing her fingers through it to get out as many of the snarls as she could. "He's the Captain of the missing-nin hunter squads. He doesn't go on missions, he just collects heads for the bounties. Most missing-nin who last more than ten minutes are big enough news that their home village has a major price on their heads. And no, they wouldn't give him permission to enter Fire, but he'd do it anyway. And the Mizukage knows that, and Captain Zabuza knows that he knows and so on down all the ridiculous numbers of layers those two think at. If Captain Zabuza gets overly enthusiastic chasing a bounty, violates someone else's turf and gets caught at it..well, he can probably just say 'yes, but...missing-nin bounty!' and it's fine."

Whatever the opposite of 'reassured' was, Ueda was that. "But if they didn't buy it, he'd start a war!"

Saito leaned up so that she could kiss him gently. "I love you, ox," she said, cupping his cheek. "But you really need to stop hoping against hope and just accept what is. If Captain Zabuza gets in trouble, the Mizukage can complain that Fire got overly aggressive and killed off a licensed missing-nin hunter in pursuit of his duties. And if Fire gets too snappish about it, the Mizukage can say that Captain Zabuza exceeded his authority and went rogue, disregarding the very strict orders that he'd been given to not violate any other nation's territorial boundaries."

Ueda started to say something else, but Saito silenced him with a kiss, molding her entire body into him in a gesture of love, reassurance, and comfort that lacked lustful fervor only because both parties were too tired and too frightened to do more than wrap themselves around each other and fall into dreams.

Hazō pulled his own blankets up with an unhappy frown; for a moment he worried that he wouldn't be able to sleep with these new concerns chasing themselves around inside his head. Almost before he finished the thought he was tumbling down through layers of dreams into the sodden sleep of a young boy who had been running on the very last dregs of his energy for days.
 
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This isn't a real objection, as the traitor would not actually flee to Kiri.

In that case, why bother doing any of this? If everyone but the traitor is actually on the same side, the loyal jounin and Mist aren't so incompetent that they wouldn't have a high probability of making up and realizing the misunderstanding, and then the full wrath of Mist is directed against you.

But of course 2, 3, and 4 are sufficient to make the idea improbable on their own. #2 alone requires extremely strong evidence to disbar.
 
2. It does not explain why such a massive force was mobilized in the first place, given peacetime. The "suicide mission" plan at least covers that.

It's not peacetime, at least not fully. The official official orders were that Kiri wanted to overtake a nearby region that was already in conflict and sent us to do it. Everybody and their mother knows about it, literally. How is that not a suitable explanation?

3. It is an extremely unreliable plan because, if the papers are placed where someone would easily find them, the person most likely to find them is the commander, who'd be extremely confused and dest roy them. If they are placed where someone wouldn't find them, then they can't be used to incite anything.

If I were a high level ninja who wanted to plant documents into my commander's tent, I would observe his patterns, especially when he leaves his tent and plant them there. Especially if, say, he decides to address the troops and afterwards asks Shikigami, or another Jonin, to talk with him in his tent. The whole shitstorm didn't go down until a week had passed from mission start; it's completely possible that the traitor was waiting for the right opportunity.

4 is thus made irrelevant.
 
Well, at the very least, looks like Zabuza's coming after us, or @eaglejarl is toying with us and our paranoia, but he'd never do that would he? :p

I hope we have a plan to stop him (him left purposefully ambiguous).
 
I see, that does simplify things a bit. But it would still be extremely convoluted, and subject to the following:

1. Any "lone survivor" of a battle that large will be intensely interrogated. I wouldn't bet on anyone holding out for long against their interrogators.

2. It does not explain why such a massive force was mobilized in the first place, given peacetime. The "suicide mission" plan at least covers that.

3. It is an extremely unreliable plan because, if the papers are placed where someone would easily find them, the person most likely to find them is the commander, who'd be extremely confused and destroy them. If they are placed where someone wouldn't find them, then they can't be used to incite anything.

4. The inciting jounin could get around 3) by telling Shikigami that there are such papers in such areas, but then once he flees Shikigami will immediately understand what happened and would not have led us to Fire, but would instead have sent messengers back to Mist while hunting down the guy who told him.

There are ways to get around 1, 2, 3, and 4, but they involve seriously improbable chains of events.
This is threadmarked. Why?
 
The chance of 4 dice losing to 2 in this system is less than 15%.
Blowing all our chakra on an average genin-level challenge is not an efficient expenditure, so I think your EV calculations are skewed. That is an idealized situation where we meet only one average genin-level challenge, and that we know that for a fact.
What is your anterior probability of a given technique we buy being useful?
That is not how planning works, as I have said earlier. We plan according to our strengths, not the other way around. The skills we most buy into are going to be useful because we will use them for all possible benefit. Notice how we're tending towards the swamp because we created a combat-heavy character?

This also factors into the XP usage to possibly level to 1. Unless there is only one clear way out through a 0-level skill, we're never going to risk that XP while we have other options available to us. Meanwhile, when we know the situations we're getting into, we have a very good idea of what skills are going to be most useful. If we know we're going into a swamp, why would we not level water-walking?

Additionally, this system benefits at least low amounts of generalization. A few points to broaden our more general skills (and get a guaranteed level for the future as well, instead of potentially wasting the XP immediately) is better than simply increasing the few strong skills we have by spending so much more XP. More skills mean more options and a better coverage of ability over likely scenarios (which are diverse), which is good because we're risk-averse. It's only tempered by the real cost of skills.

I don't have an EV calculation for you yet, but I'm already procrastinating on some things.

@eaglejarl @Velorien @AugSphere Can water-walking (repulsion) be used to, say, skate across land?
Chakra can be used to expand dice pools.
I literally forgot entirely about this. I've been looking at spreadsheets too long. Regardless, you'll note that that objection was retracted.
 
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"Come on, lover, you know this," she said, combing her fingers through it to get out as many of the snarls as she could. "He's the Captain of the missing-nin hunter squads. He doesn't go on missions, he just collects heads for the bounties. Most missing-nin who last more than ten minutes are big enough news that their home village has a major price on their heads. And no, they wouldn't give him permission to enter Fire, but he'd do it anyway. And Mizukage-sama knows that, and Zabuza-sama knows that he knows and so on down all the ridiculous numbers of layers those two think at. If Zabuza-sama gets overly enthusiastic chasing a bounty, violates someone else's turf and gets caught at it..well, he can probably just say 'yes, but...missing-nin bounty!' and it's fine."

Whatever the opposite of 'reassured' was, Ueda-san was that. "But if they didn't buy it, he'd start a war!"

Saito-san leaned up so that she could kiss him gently. "I love you, ox," she said, cupping his cheek. "But you really need to stop hoping against hope and just accept what is. If Zabuza-sama gets in trouble, the Mizukage can complain that Fire got overly aggressive and killed off a licensed missing-nin hunter in pursuit of his duties. And if Fire gets too snappish about it, Mizukage-sama can say that Zabuza-sama exceeded his authority and went rogue, disregarding the very strict orders that he'd been given to not violate any other nation's territorial boundaries."

Hm, interesting! So Zabuza is a maverick who doesn't play by the rules. I can't imagine that only hunting down missing-nin would be the most profitable use of Zabuza's time, but maybe he's got enough seniority that he can fuck around like Jiraiya. If he's going in without official sanction, though, that does clarify things for us a lot. If he takes additional dudes for more firepower, they likely won't have his stealth skill, making it more likely that he runs into Fire patrols which he'd like to avoid. But if he goes solo, is he really confident he can beat 4 jounin (they don't know that any jounin died in the swamp, after all)?

Let's think about missing-nin hunter authority. I imagine that, even in licensed use, the originating nation would have to send a notice to the target nation, because no Hidden Village would accept as outrageous a violation of sovereignty as "allow any random nin that says he's a hunter to do as he likes," even if that right is reciprocal, especially when jounin battles cause collateral damage at the rate we saw in our first post. The possibilities for abuse are endless, and it'd be an unstable equilibrium set to be violated by anyone who wants an advantage. A ninja is like a fighter jet, and a nation that doesn't control its airspace would be a laughingstock.

The stable equilibrium therefore likely requires official notice to be given before territory violations in the name of the hunt are sanctioned. But the Mizukage doesn't want to ask Leaf for permission, for all the reasons described in the post earlier. In that case, Zabuza is operating outside his standard remit and must avoid Leaf patrols while hunting us. After all, what are the possible outcomes if he meets one? They didn't get any word about him being in Fire, so -

1. He kills them and starts a war
2. They kill him and Mizukage complains, but can do nothing
3. He beats them up, causing massive escalation and a manhunt for him after they recover
4. They beat him up, capturing him
5. The outcome of 3 also occurs if they get a good look at him but he escapes, or anything to that effect.

If the Mizukage is willing to accept the potential loss of Zabuza, an elite jounin, for our deaths (which, as established earlier, have low marginal benefit for him), it implies he has very little control over Zabuza. That is very interesting. After all, it's not just that Zabuza could die; he could be captured (terrible); he could fuck up and start an international war (catastrophic).

If the other parts of the big analysis post are correct in their broad strokes, though, that is really great! There was a lot there I was afraid to use because of uncertainty over base assumptions.
 
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Hm, interesting! So Zabuza is a maverick who doesn't play by the rules. I can't imagine that only hunting down missing-nin would be the most profitable use of Zabuza's time, but maybe he's got enough seniority that he can fuck around like Jiraiya. If he's going in without official sanction, though, that does clarify things for us a lot. If he takes additional dudes for more firepower, they likely won't have his stealth skill, making it more likely that he runs into Fire patrols which he'd like to avoid. But if he goes solo, is he really confident he can beat 4 jounin (they don't know that any jounin died in the swamp, after all)?

Let's think about missing-nin hunter authority. I imagine that, even in licensed use, the originating nation would have to send a notice to the target nation, because no Hidden Village would accept as outrageous a violation of sovereignty as "allow any random nin that says he's a hunter to do as he likes," even if that right is reciprocal, especially when jounin battles cause collateral damage at the rate we saw in our first post. The possibilities for abuse are endless, and it'd be an unstable equilibrium set to be violated by anyone who wants an advantage. A ninja is like a fighter jet, and a nation that doesn't control its airspace would be a laughingstock.

The stable equilibrium therefore likely requires official notice to be given before territory violations in the name of the hunt are sanctioned. But the Mizukage doesn't want to ask Leaf for permission, for all the reasons described in the post earlier. In that case, Zabuza is operating outside his standard remit and must avoid Leaf patrols while hunting us.

If the Mizukage is willing to accept the potential loss of Zabuza, an elite jounin, for our deaths (which, as established earlier, have low marginal benefit for him), it implies he has very little control over Zabuza. That is very interesting. After all, it's not just that Zabuza could die; he could be captured (terrible); he could fuck up and start an international war (catastrophic).

If the other parts of the big analysis post are correct in their broad strokes, though, that is really great! There was a lot there I was afraid to use because of uncertainty over base assumptions.

I'm not saying that everything else in that post was completely valid, I'm just saying that this was one piece of information I think your character would reasonably have had. I chose to write it as him getting the information (well, actually, the story mostly decided to write itself that way) but he likely would have had it earlier. Zabuza is a big name; it's very likely that everyone in the Mist forces knows him by name, rank, and reputation, even if they've never seen him.

Also, in case it wasn't clear, Saito-san was saying that the Mizukage is tacitly authorizing Zabuza's incursion, while keeping plausible deniability. Whether Zabuza is a maverick or not is something of a Jedi truth -- it depends on your point of view.
 
Because Rihaku's icon looks too much like mine and I accidentally clicked for the wrong post. Fixed now.

As I've had this icon for over 5 years, sir, I would submit that it is your icon which looks too much like mine!

That is not how planning works, as I have said earlier. We plan according to our strengths, not the other way around. The skills we most buy into are going to be useful because we will use them for all possible benefit. Notice how we're tending towards the swamp because we created a combat-heavy character?

Regarding "generally useful techniques should be bought for use outside of opposed rolls" - I don't know if unopposed rolls are technically in the system, but if they are, then we have an EV of 1 for saving the XP until the use is needed.

Regarding "spending chakra to boost a skill is potentially wasteful" - We would need to spend chakra to boost any low Skill that we're rolling an opposed roll for, because an opposed roll means an active enemy that we must beat. It's not acceptable to fail a Tactical Movement roll and let someone score a 20+ margin roll against us.

I mean, I don't really care about 1 XP, so it's not a major worry for me. But I do care about effects that would make us spend Chakra outside of combat unnecessarily. Given the logical consequences of elite genin physical stats as evinced by Sasuke's feats, I am not sure that water-walking will actually give us any benefits we could not live without, especially considering the Chakra cost.
 
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