Remove ads

Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

Voting is open for the next 21 hours, 49 minutes
Reader mode
@eaglejarl: What does the land between the Shimura estate and the Leaf walls look like? I know 2 sides of the estate are the forest of mild inconvenience, but if it's outside the walls is there any space between the estate and Leaf right now?

I'm considering a plan where we use the Shimura Estate as our immediate relocation area, but later transition it to the KEI for use as dorms, training areas, etc... with an eye towards eventually making it a battle-university-esque facility for both ninja and civilians.

Edit: Not to mention, the forest of mild inconvinience is a great training area if we're careful about proper oversight. It's as close to our "survive out in the wild for a few years" training method as Konoha nin can get, without pushing the death rate sky high.

Edit 2: @eaglejarl, were there every any QM accepted statistics for rates of death and promotion for Konoha nin? even just estimates that sound right?

Edit 3: @eaglejarl, are the Hyuuga branch family cursed seals a thing in MfD? I wonder if we can modify it to add a geas, private set intersection protocol, and general data storage.

Edit 4: We should ask the Nara what their protocols for offsite sealing facilities are. Given how much damage they prevented during the invisible spikes episode it's worth checking out their arrangements.
 
Last edited:
Kiba said:
[X] Action Plan: Real Estate Play

  • First Priority: Buy *something*.
    • Go with Mari to see her at work negotiating with Hiashi to get the clan's money back.
      • Suggest printing broadsheets about the news to gain additional leverage?
    • First choice is probably Shimura's estate. Maybe adding to tavern's acreage instead? Any other properties on the market?
    • Have KEI ninja scout potential locations.
    • No locations near the Hyuga.
  • Underground expansions:
    • Lease/buy underground space underneath properties adjacent to tavern. Mari will sweet talk owners for ludicrously cheap deals.
    • Arrange for earth jutsu usage(KEI or pangolins) and subsequent constructions by civilians.
    • If we purchased an estate, we could also do the same thing.
  • Misc stuff
    • Talk to Kabuto about Noburi.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Added Kabuto stuff. Anyone wants to add stuff as well?

Jello_Raptor said:
I'm considering a plan where we use the Shimura Estate as our immediate relocation area, but later transition it to the KEI for use as dorms, training areas, etc... with an eye towards eventually making it a battle-university-esque facility for both ninja and civilians.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Whatever we end up using, we can do all these things. Just need to prep construction.
 
Last edited:
Jello_Raptor said:
Edit 2: @eaglejarl, were there every any QM accepted statistics for rates of death and promotion for Konoha nin? even just estimates that sound right?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
I have on two occasions written up plausible demographics for Leaf-nin based on non-definitive QM statements. Both write-ups are probably decently wrong, but they might give you some perspective.
Inferno Vulpix said:
I can do a little bit of math for ninja life expectancies that hopefully you can plug numbers into and get other numbers out.

In a 'stable state' (i.e. before the major battles of the quest) Konoha had about 1200 Genin, 250 Chuunin, and 50 Jounin, with the input to this equilibrium being academy graduates.

We know from previous WoG's that Genin typically become Chuunin by 18 or not at all. The 'not at all' originally meant death but presumably also includes career Genin who won't make the cut for Chuunin no matter how long they grind. This doesn't exactly map to the XP system, since in theory all it would take is more time to gather the XP you need to hit chuunin-level stats, but in reality people have limits and it's perfectly reasonable for some ninja to just hit their limits at Genin levels of proficiency.

We can make a similar set of assumptions regarding Chuunin and Jounin. Some Chuunin just aren't capable of reaching Jounin heights of competence and spend their entire lives as Chuunin. Other Chuunin are on track to hit Jounin, and will in all likelihood take no longer than <some number> of years to get there. Let's say that somewhere between 25-30 is the cut-off. If you hit that age and you're still a Chuunin, you're probably never going to hit Jounin because of power limits modeled for realism apart from the XP system.

Instead of using the maximum age someone arrives at a power tier in, though, we want the average age. Since we know the maximum and (roughly) the minimums, I'll make the following ballparks:
  • The average career Chuunin spends about 4 years as a Genin (and is promoted at 16).
  • The average Jounin spends about 2-3 years as a Genin and about 7-8 years as a Chuunin (promoted at 14-15 and 21-23 respectively).
If I knew the relative ratios of talent for academy graduates and the total academy class size, I could calculate the necessary death rates and thus life expectancy per category of ninja, but I don't so I can only make general predictions. Here's how I might approach the model with freedom to make assumptions:
  • Let's say that in a given year 75% of deaths are Genin, 20% are Chuunin, and 5% are Jounin, and that the graduating class size of the academy is 60.
  • This would mean that, for the system to be in equilibrium, the numerical deaths are 45 Genin, 12 Chuunin, and 3 Jounin.
    • Furthermore, in that year 12 Genin got promoted to Chuunin and 3 Chuunin got promoted to Jounin, and of the 60 academy graduates 12 of them will eventually reach Chuunin and 3 of them will reach Jounin.
  • With 3 Jounin dying every year and 50 Jounin, that gives about a 3/50 (or ~1/17) chance each year for a given Jounin to die. Due to the nature of repeated exponential chances like this, this means a given Jounin is 50% likely to have died within 11 or so years of being promoted and about 66% likely to have died after 17 years.
    • The exact methodology I'm using goes like this:
      • When you're testing the same unlikely chance a bunch of times for at least one hit, what you do is take the odds you fail and model the odds of that chance chaining together a lot.
        • (When you die you obviously stop doing missions and rolling the odds, just as when you find the shiny Pokemon you've completed your shiny hunt.)
      • In this case it's a 47/50 chance per year that you survive, so how likely are you to hit those odds every time?
      • For a given n years you can calculate the odds that you survived all of them with the following formula: odds = (47/50)n​
        • This is then converted to the odds you died by just subtracting it from 1. (Also multiply by 100 if you want percentages)
      • This format gives you odds of death for a given number of years, but often it's more useful to ask how many years for a given odds of death (how long until a 50% chance a Jounin dies?). To do this you'd want to convert the exponential formula to a logarithmic formula, but there's a quick guess-and-test shortcut for a couple simple cases:
        • Model your event as a 1/x chance. You hit even odds of the unlikely event happening at about two thirds of x.
          • In our case that was 2/3 of 1/17, which gave me 11, which in the exponential formula gives us 49.4% chance of a hit.
        • Under the same 1/x model, if you try x times you get about 2/3 odds of the event happening.
          • In our case that was 17 iterations, which the exponential formula says is 65.1% chance of a hit.
          • 2/3 may seem arbitrary, but it's actually 1 - 1/e which for colloquial use is basically 2/3.
      [*]
    • Either way, somewhere between 11 and 17 years is our number for how old Jounin tend to get before dying. If we assume that the average Jounin hits the rank at 21-23 then Jounin tend to live somewhere up to 32-40.
  • If we repeat this with Chuunin, we get 12/250 or 1/21 per year, which gives us about 14-21 years of Chuunin service before death. Starting at 16, that maths out to 30-37 for life expectancy of a Chuunin.
  • And for Genin, 45/1200 is 1/27 for 18-27 years of max Genin service. Starting at 12, this means life expectancy for a career genin is somewhere around 30-39.
WARNING, I pulled those ratios out of nowhere, and the numbers I drew from them cannot be considered valid! That's just an example of the process you'd use to calculate death rates and life expectancy for a hidden village in equilibrium!

If we double Academy class sizes then with twice as many ninja entering the pool the turnover rate must be much higher for the equilibrium populations we see (more specifically, the career lengths upon reaching their rank would halve, giving us 21-26 for Genin, 23-27 for Chuunin, and 27-32 for Jounin).

If we instead skew the ratios further towards Genin (let's say 90/9/1) then Jounin live longer and Genin live shorter (for example, that ratioset would mean 27-34/46-62/76-106 Genin/Chuunin/Jounin max ages).

If we do both, then we get 19-23/31-39/49-65 for max Genin/Chuunin/Jounin ages.

And honestly, nothing's stopping you from doubling Academy size again and tanking the lifespans even further, or bumping up the Jounin death rate a little, or doubling down on the genin death rate. The general algorithm is:
  1. Decide the Academy class size and ratio of deaths.
  2. Multiply the ratios by the class size to get the numerical replacement rate per rank (120 academy graduates x 90% of deaths are genin = 108)
  3. Divide the population of each power tier with the replacement rate for 66% chance-of-death year (1200 genin / 108 genin per year = 11.1)
  4. Take 2/3 of that number for the 50% chance-of-death year (11.1 x 2/3 = 7.4)
  5. Add to both numbers the age the ninja reaches that rank for the power (12 + 7.4 = 19.4| 12 + 11.1 = 23.1)
If the number seems unreasonable, tinker with the starting parameters and see if it spits out something better. I can't tell you how many Academy graduates you need a year to keep the turnover rate just high enough, or how steep the ratios need to just hit the sweet spot for Jounin lifespan, but hopefully you can use this to figure things out on your end.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Inferno Vulpix said:
The following is a non-confirmed quote from eaglejarl on the discord about ninja demographics that he wants checked for plausibility:

Now, as a recap, Konoha in a 'stable state' (i.e. before the USoUD and BotG) has about 1200 Genin, 250 Chuunin, and 50 Jounin. Okay, let's go.

Genin:
Genin have a fairly even death rate here, let's average that out and say that a Genin lives from 12 to 17, five years. This means that 240 Genin die, get promoted, or go missing a year and 240 Genin graduate from the Academy each year.

Chuunin:
Chuunin can be put in two groups: doomed Chuunin and Jounin-track Chuunin. Doomed Chuunin die in less than a year, let's round that off to a flat year for simplicity. Jounin-track Chuunin stay Chuunin for about six years before becoming Jounin. This means that for every year of Doomed Chuunin there are six years of Jounin-track Chuunin to work with.

There are 250 Chuunin in Konoha. If 2/3 of new Chuunin are doomed Chuunin, then there are (1/3 * 6) = 2 years of Chuunin, 3 times as many Jounin-track Chuunin as doomed Chuunin walking around at a given moment. That means there are about 190 Jounin-track Chuunin and about 60 doomed Chuunin in Konoha.

This amounts to a draw of about 90 Genin a year, meaning that of the 240 Genin that graduate from the Academy, about 150 will die as Genin, about 60 will die as doomed Chuunin, and about 30 will likely hit Jounin.

Jounin:
There are three categories for Jounin here: doomed Jounin, regular Jounin, and S-track Jounin. Doomed Jounin die within the first year, and the regular Jounin population die within five years (let's say an average of 3), leaving only the S-track Jounin alive beyond that.

There are 50 Jounin in Leaf in a stable state. That means that there's one year of doomed Jounin, three years of regular Jounin, and something like thirty years of S-rank Jounin that together equal 50.

Starting from the S-rankers, let's make a generous estimate that Konoha averages about 5 S-rankers normally. That drops our Jounin pool down to 45 between the doomed and regular Jounin.

At a draw of 30 new Jounin per year, n of them are doomed Jounin and m of them are regular Jounin. With a total non-S-track Jounin population of about 45, we get the following equations: n + 3m = 45 and n + m = 30. Rearrange for n = 30 - m and substitute as (30 - m) + 3m = 45 and solve for m = 7.5. Round that off and we can conclude that of the 30 new Jounin Leaf gets each year, 22 of them are doomed Jounin and 8 of them are Regular Jounin. Or, in other words, 73% of Jounin die in their first year and 27% die within five years.

(S-rankers have been omitted from these calculations because 5 S-rankers at 30 years per S-ranker is one S-ranker every six years, a rounding error of the Jounin population).

In Conclusion:
Taking the not confirmed numbers eaglejarl provided on discord and making a few small assumptions to extrapolate from them:
  • The Academy class size is something like 240 Genin a year.
  • About 150 of those Genin (63%) will die as a Genin, and the other 90 will be promoted to Chuunin.
  • About 60 of those Chuunin (67%) will die within a year, and the other 30 will be promoted to Jounin.
  • About 22 of those Jounin (73%) will die within a year, and the rest will die within five years.
  • S-rankers are a rounding error.
edit: math error in Chuunin calcs.
edit2: improved Jounin model and fixed calcs.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
 
Kiba said:
[X] Action Plan: Real Estate Play

  • First Priority: Buy *something*.
    • Go with Mari to see her at work negotiating with Hiashi to get the clan's money back.
      • Suggest printing broadsheets about the news to gain additional leverage?
    • First choice is probably Shimura's estate. Maybe adding to tavern's acreage instead? Any other properties on the market?
    • Have KEI ninja scout potential locations.
    • No locations near the Hyuga.
  • Underground expansions:
    • Lease/buy underground space underneath properties adjacent to tavern. Mari will sweet talk owners for ludicrously cheap deals.
    • Arrange for earth jutsu usage(KEI or pangolins) and subsequent constructions by civilians.
    • If we purchased an estate, do new underground.
  • New Estate:
    • Patch up place good enough for clan. Prioritize apartments for KEI ninja.
    • Work with KEI and Kagome to make Rock nin think "FUCK NO!" when contemplating an attack.
  • Misc stuff
    • Talk to Kabuto about Noburi.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Add New Estate section.
 
Jello_Raptor said:
Edit 3: @eaglejarl, are the Hyuuga branch family cursed seals a thing in MfD? I wonder if we can modify it to add a geas, private set intersection protocol, and general data storage.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Hazō has never seen such seals, nor heard any reference to them.

Answers to your other questions are pending QM discussion.


EDIT:
This has been sitting in QM QUINOA for a long time. I think it got posted, but I'm not sure:

faflec said:
So, uh...what is the policy if we turn in seals and the Tower turns us back by saying they don't have enough cash? Are we stuck with Skywalkers we can't sell? Are we allowed to trade them to other sealmasters for their quotas, or sell them to other ninja? Are we immediately arrested for treason for hoarding Skywalkers that we can't sell and don't want to destroy for no good reason?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

The Tower has enough money that it is unlikely they will ever be unable to pay. That said, yes. If you cannot sell them to the Tower then you still can't sell them to anyone else or use them yourself without authorization. In this unlikely case, the Tower will take the seals and give you an IOU.
 
Last edited:
Kiba said:
[X] Action Plan: Real Estate Play

  • First Priority: Buy *something*.
    • Go with Mari to see her at work negotiating with Hiashi to get the clan's money back.
      • Suggest printing broadsheets about the news to gain additional leverage?
    • First choice is probably Shimura's estate. Maybe adding to tavern's acreage instead? Any other properties on the market?
    • Have KEI ninja scout potential locations.
    • No locations near the Hyuga.
  • Underground expansions:
    • Lease/buy underground space underneath properties adjacent to tavern. Mari will sweet talk owners for ludicrously cheap deals.
    • Arrange for earth jutsu usage(KEI or pangolins) and subsequent constructions by civilians.
    • If we purchased an estate, do new underground.
  • New Estate:
    • Patch up place good enough for clan. Prioritize apartments for KEI ninja.
    • Work with KEI and Kagome to make Rock nin think "FUCK NO!" when contemplating an attack.
  • Misc stuff
    • Talk to Kabuto about Noburi.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

How can I make this plan more appealing to voters? What do they want to happen?
 
Kiba said:
[X] Action Plan: Real Estate Play

  • First Priority: Buy *something*.
    • Go with Mari to see her at work negotiating with Hiashi to get the clan's money back.
      • Suggest printing broadsheets about the news to gain additional leverage?
    • First choice is probably Shimura's estate. Maybe adding to tavern's acreage instead? Any other properties on the market?
    • Have KEI ninja scout potential locations.
    • No locations near the Hyuga.
  • Underground expansions:
    • Lease/buy underground space underneath properties adjacent to tavern. Mari will sweet talk owners for ludicrously cheap deals.
    • Arrange for earth jutsu usage(KEI or pangolins) and subsequent constructions by civilians.
    • If we purchased an estate, do new underground.
  • New Estate:
    • Patch up place good enough for clan. Prioritize apartments for KEI ninja.
    • Work with KEI and Kagome to make Rock nin think "FUCK NO!" when contemplating an attack.
  • Misc stuff
    • Talk to Kabuto about Noburi.
  • Ask Mother Nana (or Noburi) for some of her finest (and hopefully safest) hallucinogens.
    • Go meditate in the training ground where you had that weird sealing failure before-- the one with the whale. Try to get the exact spot correct.
      • Naruto, Noburi, and Mari are on overwatch. Genjutsu and restrain us if things become problematic.
    • Attempt to contact the other Paths for spiritual guidance. Remember: reality is probably still very thin around you.
      • Prep:
        • Attempt to widen the dimensional apertures via continuous sealing/unsealing of a few dozen storage scrolls .
        • Arrange an array of party trick seals around you in the most eldritch fashion possible.
        • Play the spooky flute music in between renditions of a new piece entitled "Zabuza cannot find a needle in a sewing kit, especially now that he's dead!"
        • Pay some Genin to stand around and do the Dance of Please Let The Walls of Reality Crumble (invert the motions of the Dance of Pray Reality Does Not Break Down ).
        • Drench the ground with leftover (from the Basement) chicken blood so that it smells like death.
        • Focus overwhelmingly on the feeling of hunting demons that was Z's killing intent, maybe send some psychic messages back "Here I am, come on and get me!"
      • When it works:
        • "Haha! Who is the idiot now ghosts!?"
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Added MKII stuff to my plan. Will need to trim it down for 299 words later.
 
Wow indeed.

[X] Action Plan: Real Estate Play

I've optimized your plan, @Kiba.

  • Priority#1: Acquire housing.
    • Accompany Mari when she negotiates with the Tower for money.
      • Suggest printing broadsheets about Orochimaru's play to gain additional leverage.
    • Possibilities:
      • (first choice) The Shimura estate.
      • Acquire land surrounding our inn.
      • Have KEI ninja scout other potential locations. Avoid those near the Hyuuga.
  • Underground expansions:
    • Lease/buy underground space underneath properties adjacent to the tavern; put Mari on the case.
    • Using Earth jutsu (KEI members or Pangolins), build tunnels and rooms there, connected to our tavern. Employ civilians for subsequent constructions.
  • If we purchase a new estate
    • Patch it up. Prioritize apartments for KEI ninja.
    • Build a new underground network.
    • Ensure it looks as unassailable and intimidating as possible, so Rock ninja avoid it.
  • Talk to Kabuto about Noburi.
  • Ask Mother Nana (or Noburi) for some of her finest (and safest) hallucinogens.
    • Meditate in the training ground where you had the whale sealing failure. Try to sit at the exact spot.
      • Overwatch: Naruto, Noburi, and Mari. Employ genjutsu and restraints if it becomes necessary.
    • Attempt to contact other Paths for spiritual guidance. Reality's probably still very thin around you.
      • Try to contact Zabuza.
      • Preparations:
        • Attempt to widen dimensional apertures via continuous sealing/unsealing of a few dozen storage scrolls .
        • Play the spooky flute music again.
        • Focus on the feeling of hunting demons that was Zabuza's aura. Mentally taunt them: "Here I am, come on and get me!"
      • Once you've gotten his (?) attention, attempt to strike up a conversation.
 
Last edited:
Noumero said:
I've optimized your plan, @Kiba.

  • Priority#1: Acquire housing.
    • Accompany Mari when she negotiates with the Tower for money.
      • Suggest printing broadsheets about Orochimaru's play to gain additional leverage.
    • Possibilities:
      • (first choice) The Shimura estate.
      • Acquire land surrounding our inn.
      • Have KEI ninja scout other potential locations. Avoid those near the Hyuuga.
  • Underground expansions:
    • Lease/buy underground space underneath properties adjacent to the tavern; put Mari on the case.
    • Using Earth jutsu (KEI member or Pangolins), build tunnels and rooms there, connected to our tavern. Employ civilians for subsequent constructions.
  • If we purchase an new estate
    • Patch it up. Prioritize apartments for KEI ninja.
    • Build a new underground network.
    • Ensure it looks as unassailable and intimidating as possible, so Rock ninja avoid it.
  • Talk to Kabuto about Noburi.
  • Ask Mother Nana (or Noburi) for some of her finest (and safest) hallucinogens.
    • Meditate in the training ground where you had the whale sealing failure. Try to sit at the exact spot.
      • Overwatch: Naruto, Noburi, and Mari. Employ genjutsu and restraints if it becomes necessary.
    • Attempt to contact other Paths for spiritual guidance. Reality's probably still very thin around you.
      • Preparations:
        • Attempt to widen dimensional apertures via continuous sealing/unsealing of a few dozen storage scrolls .
        • Arrange an array of party trick seals around you in the most eldritch fashion possible.
        • Play the spooky flute music again.
        • Have some genin to stand around doing the inverse of the dance of "Pray Reality Does Not Break Down".
        • Drench the ground with leftover (from the Basement) chicken blood (so it smells like death).
        • Focus overwhelmingly on the feeling of hunting demons that was Zabuza's aura. Mentally taunt them: "Here I am, come on and get me!"
      • When it works:
        • "Haha! Who is the idiot now ghosts!?"
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
You can probably cut the dancing genin out. Also we should try to establish contact with Z and start up a conversation, maybe.

Edit: Nevermind
 
Last edited:
Alright, all joking aside, could we contact Jiraiya instead of Zabuza? He's stronger, more inclined to help us, and we've felt his KI before (however restrained). Plus we have a Summoning Scroll he used, unlike Zabuza!
 
Reader mode
You must login or register to reply here.
Voting is open for the next 21 hours, 49 minutes
Remove ads
Back
Top