We don't know. Either could work based on the one converted Stab we saw.
Paths of Civilization
- Thread starter Academia Nut
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BungieONI
Seven gremlins in a trench coat
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I do believe that AN said that we and the HK would out number the Thunder Speakers by 3 to 1 or 3 to 2. I think we are outnumbered when it comes to the ETH + TS + Xoh, though by how much is a bit up in the air. If it is only the one city state that holds their leashes and the TS and Xoh I think we reach parity of numbers. Good thing we are going for Iron.
I'd really like it to be the take -4 convert it into +1 version because that is stinkingly beautiful powerful.
Seems like we're more likely to be outnumbered by the Not!Persians.
Though, how productive is Iran?
It's more me trying to understand the system so that I can make reasonable evaluations based on it.
For example: We're at Stability 1. We have a -5 Refugee wave coming in, and we have the opportunity for a free Grand Sacrifice.
Let us assume purely random ordering.
If it happens at once, then we have a 1/2 = 50% chance of death.
If it's spread out, we have a 1/6 = 17% chance of the GS coming last and thus killing us.
Alternatively, more information about how the ordering rolls are applied if my understanding thus far is incorrect.
I'm asking if the -1s happen at the same time or if they're spread out.
BungieONI
Seven gremlins in a trench coat
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Well the best way to fix that is to expand. I can say with confidence that we are per person the most productive civ in the region so if we start expanding our population is going to spike and that outnumbering problem is going to lessen severely, though it will take time.
Oh, that's a very specific variation. Hrmmm my gut is that it's spread, because of how admin rolls have worked out but I can't support that thought so *shrug?*
- Location
- Hell
The thing is, if it was in chunks, then it has more chances to trigger Greater Good. AN has said that it only triggers once per event.
So it is all at once.
(That's why I thought you were asking for more chances at Greater Good)
I thought we get two stability negation to the Iron event?
pblur
Reminiscing over the halcyon days of Ymaryn
- Location
- Lawrence's Wagon
No, we've been explicitly told that we get 4 chances at gg from a -4 stab immigration.
What? I'd have to go digging for the quote but I'm 90% certain that we get a separate chance for each stability point we lose, no matter what the source is. That's why we lost the Golden Age from taking Iron: We lost 3 stability and the 4th one triggered the GG, so we dipped down to 0 stability, ending the Golden Age, before going back up to 1.
Worse, they are just pattern overmatching. You don't even need a coincidence when you set no endpoint and the phrases are free association nonsense.
We're voting on 30 year periods. We have MULTIPLE comets in such a time. Every turn has at least one
I personally figure people who aren't specifically studying stars for an extended period only really notice comets when they are looking for something to blame for bad luck
Also ironically I just realized the STs could really have Study Stars their way to fixing Economy due to overflow...except they spent it as fast as they got it...
Actually no, we need to confront it because:
You got the opposite conclusion from the same set of facts:
-Originally, people believed that ALL metal works were cursed.
-We Confronted it hard with the Iron event.
-Now people accept minor works, and are still uneasy with major.
AN pretty much had said that for removing superstitions, you have to be willing to pay in Stability. If you avoid the Stability costs then you are not challenging what people believe
Actually, no. AN had confirmed Restore Order's maximum Stability is the highest point you can USE it, not the highest point it can take you.
pblur
Reminiscing over the halcyon days of Ymaryn
- Location
- Lawrence's Wagon
No, that was an exception. AN said he wasn't sure how many GG rolls he would do that time, but not 4.
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- Hell
That had very much been an exception to the rule, but AN had stated it before that one chance of Greater Good per stability hit.
I imagine that is because panic and chaos doesn't really come in bursts.
That was an exception. AN only rolled twice for it.
pblur
Reminiscing over the halcyon days of Ymaryn
- Location
- Lawrence's Wagon
Easiest way to reason through it:
-Rolled 1 TGG per Main action equivalent causing a Stability hit.
-Each point of refugees is 2 Econ, so it's a Man action.
-Therefore the Iron trigger was counted as 2x Main Study Metals taking 1 Stability each + one Event 2 Stability hit.
IIRC, 3 to 2 expression was more about the TH's warriors are worth 2 to our 3.
But we should be at 3 to 1 now with our horde of elite class archers and the carrion eaters who act as our battle medic.
Going for iron will help us, but that's dependent on the amount we can produce. I expect the improvements will come in the order of:
1. Tools - This will allow us to produce more chariots.
2. Weapons - We only need part of our weapon to hold an edge. The rest can be wood and other materials. Arrowheads, on the other hand, need to be made in sufficient quantity. Otherwise, we cannot waste the iron on those.
3. Armor - laminated or otherwise. Required the most material to protect the users.
Therefore, it is an imperative that we find more mines and expand iron production ASAP.
- Location
- United States
What do you guys think about this next turn (assuming we treat him as sick):
[Main] Proclaim Glory
[Secondary] Expand Econ
[Secondary] Expand Econ x2
It has narrative synergy since we're stockpiling econ and sending a huge message restoring people's faith in us. I believe that the king will start reassuring people that he and the chiefs are stocking up "just in case", and that they aren't ignoring the possibility...just that we shouldn't treat the mentally ill as a valid source of information.
This would cap our legitimacy, boost our stability (which will help alot if there is a comet, or for opening an iron mine) and maybe carry a chance for extra stability (as we're addressing the concerns as well as spreading information on what we're doing about it).
@Academia Nut Does this action spread carry a lot of narrative synergy for next turn (assuming we treat him as sick)? If so, does it also carry a chance of gaining more stability than usual?
[Main] Proclaim Glory
[Secondary] Expand Econ
[Secondary] Expand Econ x2
It has narrative synergy since we're stockpiling econ and sending a huge message restoring people's faith in us. I believe that the king will start reassuring people that he and the chiefs are stocking up "just in case", and that they aren't ignoring the possibility...just that we shouldn't treat the mentally ill as a valid source of information.
This would cap our legitimacy, boost our stability (which will help alot if there is a comet, or for opening an iron mine) and maybe carry a chance for extra stability (as we're addressing the concerns as well as spreading information on what we're doing about it).
@Academia Nut Does this action spread carry a lot of narrative synergy for next turn (assuming we treat him as sick)? If so, does it also carry a chance of gaining more stability than usual?
Umi-san
Procrastinating.
- Location
- ꙮ
Is it better to find more mine sites or establish a mine immediately?
The former means we can just do whatever stab action ppl pick, survey lands, and switch our policy to Progress or something. The latter means we should do a double main Stab + Mine, which has us keep expanding but that's tbh not the worst of things.
@hylas240 We'll be at Econ 2 + 2 + 1 = 5 at the start of next turn. If we stay on expansion we won't need more manual econ gain, so we should probably do Main PG + Study Stars + Survey Lands.
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I'd rather the following:
[main] Proclaim Glory
[secondary] Policy - Progress
[secondary] Expand Economy
Or
[main] Restore Order
[secondary] Proclaim Glory
[secondary] Policy - Progress.
If we're treating him as sick, we're explicitly not going around and telling people "there might be a comet in the next few years, watch us prepare for it."
Why would we expand econ manually? We'll be getting ~3-4 econ via Expansion policy, we don't really need more.
I'm planning on doing:
[] [Main] Iron Mine
[] [Secondary] Study Stars
[] [Secondary] Enforce Law
Province actions:
[Main] New Settlement
3 actions remain. Possible New Settlement (if a new location opens up), otherwise Expand Economy. Small chance of Expand Forests.
Alternatively if we're allowed to, do a [Main] Restore Order with the Iron Mine, same expected province actions.
Either way, we can grab iron immediately. As we've seen, Stability 0 or even temporarily dipping to -1 is not a big problem. It is a problem that needs to be solved, but Iron is more important.
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I think establishing a mine immediately is more useful. With survey lands, we aren't guarantee to find another iron source.
Why do people always suggest Enforce Law? It locks us out of being able to do New Trails for all our provinces. It should only be used when we need to clear corruption.
BungieONI
Seven gremlins in a trench coat
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Actually I have been thinking about this some and I think this could work out mechanically and the best narratively:
[] [Main] Build Iron Mine Bleeding Cliffs
[] [Secondary] Grand Sacrifice
[] [Secondary] Grand Sacrifice x2
Resource flow. +0 Econ and +1 Stability before Province actions. We also get Iron, when no one has anything better than brass. In general, it also radically increases the effectiveness of all our tools and we gain a major spike to productivity.
Provinces on Expansion will generate around 3 to 4 Econ. Possibly some Mysticism if they Main a Settlement. Any of the Econ generated here through Expand Econ will arrive before the mid turn see this post.
Narratively I think we all agree that the Ymaryn equate "The Spirits are angry = disaster. And they need to be appeased."? So, looking at this vote we open the mine and we do a grand sacrifice, either before or after is fine. By doing the grand sacrifice we directly appease the spirits for our trespass into the earth, in the Ymaryn's minds to the best of their ability. I say this is the best of their ability because it is the option with the highest amount of generated Stability in one go besides Restore Order and RoO is more about corruption and crime than appeasing the spirits.
We also come out ahead in stability by doing this. I figure even if a disaster strikes next mid turn we will have in most of our people's eyes appeased them in regards to the mine so they will think the disaster cannot be related to it and thus Observance implies that something else caused it. Indirect weakening of the Weapons of the Gods, which may not be officially counted but it does set up a narrative for it to be questioned. Observance will probably not proc good or bad in the disaster, at least not in connection to the Mine.
Doing this with a Main Proclaim Glory could also work, as it maxes our Legitimacy, which will be useful if a disaster comes. It's a tradeoff of do we want 3(max) Legitimacy and 0 Stability or 2 Legitimacy and 1 Stability. Narratively it also appeases people by reassuring them that the king and chiefs know what they are doing. This does not have the spiritual appeasement element of the Grand Sacrifice vote, so I see it as being overall less effective in setting up a good narrative to prepare for a disaster, if one is coming.
We could do this to:
[] [Main] Expand Economy
[] [Secondary] Grand Sacrifice
[] [Secondary] Grand Sacrifice x2
This means we are at 2 Stability and 2 Legitimacy for the mid turn. I see Grand Sacrifice being our "Directly appease the spirits" option, which is why it is so effective and comforting. By appeasing them if the comet comes we cause some question to be made, but luckily it is one that can be directed since it is more honest confusion and fear that would be behind the uproar. Observance could be good or bad here, it varies if ignore means his prophecy gets forgotten or it gets out. Might even be a roll there.
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Umi-san
Procrastinating.
- Location
- ꙮ
Stability 0 isn't, Stability -1 is undesirable. I'd maybe rather do Candesce's plan, though personally I wouldn't mind staying in Expansion.
I guess.
- Location
- his hidden lair
I really can't fathom this pathological revulsion this thread has of the notion of the Ymaryn having a concept of prophecy. Veekie explicitly said it was worse than the 'Weapons of the Gods' which is downright baffling. The Greeks had a concept of prophecy (and fate!) even including crazy/deranged prophets- case in point the eponymous Cassandra. The Norse had a concept of fortune telling, prophecy, and fate. The Romans had their own hangups when it came to divination. And even today, you see tarot readings, palm readings, astrology, and more.
Humans believing in prophecy isn't crippling, it's not some horrendous flaw- it's human nature. One that we've mostly been able to transcend not because we know prophecy is bunk now, but because we can utilize our understanding of the world to make more grounded and accurate predictions. We don't have omens and signs because we can use inductive and deductive reasoning instead to forecast events to a degree.
People like to believe there's a reason for why shit happens. Divinity, fate, and prophecy are all tied into this and it's a perfectly natural human phenomenon. Now the notion that fate is immutable is a potentially toxic one, and there's downsides to having a culture that overly emphasises prophecy over reason- but the backlash here seems entirely unreasonable to me.
Do you really think AN, who's done his utmost to present a fairly realistic and reasonable simulation of the development of civilization, would arbitrarily overly punish the Ymaryn for something that's simply ubiquitous in any culture before the scientific method takes hold, let alone one that has barely poked at the nature of the world itself? I'd suspect we're far more likely to be punished for choosing to overlook the perception of this from our civilization's view rather than our ever faltering attempts to leverage modern understanding. If we do nothing, and anything happens- we're obviously culpable for ignoring the signs. But even making the wrong call is better as it's simply misreading the signs rather than willfully ignoring them.
We must always remember to act in the context of our civilization's understanding of the issue- and this leading vote seems to resoundingly fail at that.
Humans believing in prophecy isn't crippling, it's not some horrendous flaw- it's human nature. One that we've mostly been able to transcend not because we know prophecy is bunk now, but because we can utilize our understanding of the world to make more grounded and accurate predictions. We don't have omens and signs because we can use inductive and deductive reasoning instead to forecast events to a degree.
People like to believe there's a reason for why shit happens. Divinity, fate, and prophecy are all tied into this and it's a perfectly natural human phenomenon. Now the notion that fate is immutable is a potentially toxic one, and there's downsides to having a culture that overly emphasises prophecy over reason- but the backlash here seems entirely unreasonable to me.
Do you really think AN, who's done his utmost to present a fairly realistic and reasonable simulation of the development of civilization, would arbitrarily overly punish the Ymaryn for something that's simply ubiquitous in any culture before the scientific method takes hold, let alone one that has barely poked at the nature of the world itself? I'd suspect we're far more likely to be punished for choosing to overlook the perception of this from our civilization's view rather than our ever faltering attempts to leverage modern understanding. If we do nothing, and anything happens- we're obviously culpable for ignoring the signs. But even making the wrong call is better as it's simply misreading the signs rather than willfully ignoring them.
We must always remember to act in the context of our civilization's understanding of the issue- and this leading vote seems to resoundingly fail at that.
BungieONI
Seven gremlins in a trench coat
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