Why do people always suggest Enforce Law? It locks us out of being able to do New Trails for all our provinces. It should only be used when we need to clear corruption.
Enforce Law is an incredibly efficient action for us to take, being among our most efficient stability options. Our stability is also a little bit low right now, we'd really like for it to go up by ~2. Trails would work, but are a lot more expensive.
We've also literally never taken it, I want to see its narrative effects. More than that though, our trails are good enough now. Improving our disaster resistance via raising stability is worth more than leaving the potential for more trails when doing so also has a good chance of granting stability.

Stability 0 isn't, Stability -1 is undesirable. I'd maybe rather do Candesce's plan, though personally I wouldn't mind staying in Expansion.
Undesirable != horrible death awaits immediately. Dropping to -1 is ok as long as we are working to fix it at the same time.

Also note that this plan only has a chance of going to -1, we'd prefer staying at 0 but if we go to -1 and unlock RoO, we're still fine.
 
Remember that the copper mine came with a big windfall of econ. I expect the same to be true of Iron.
Canceled out mostly by Grand Sacrifice in my plan, though it makes logical sense for the mine to give more than +3 Since iron is better than copper. Probably much more than +3, which would be sweet.
 
@Karugus Because prophecy is a lie, and in this case a complete lie rather than facts strung together in a new way distinct from the typical methods a coherent mind would use.

@notgreat Yes. I just have a pavlovian response toward negative stability. Too much salt.
 
@Karugus Because prophecy is a lie, and in this case a complete lie rather than facts strung together in a new way distinct from the typical methods a coherent mind would use.

@notgreat Yes. I just have a pavlovian response toward negative stability. Too much salt.
We shall see if something does happen the prophecy is not a lie and we just took stab and legit hits for nothing in any case we shall see at the mid turns
 
The Prophecy is 100% a lie, its just so fucking vague that it could literally mean ANYTHING, so if ANYTHING goes wrong then obviously it was PROPHECY.
No it does not mean anything we were given choices dependant on how we interpret it also we shall see in the mid turns if it is a lie or not in any case the vote is already decided so if the prophecy IS true then oh well
 
No it does not mean anything we were given choices dependant on how we interpret it also we shall see in the mid turns if it is a lie or not in any case the vote is already decided so if the prophecy IS true then oh well
Uh Yea, The very fact that we have multiple options means its vague enough that it can be interpreted IC 3 different ways (well 4 if you count the ignore)
That makes it Bullshit
 
No it does not mean anything we were given choices dependant on how we interpret it also we shall see in the mid turns if it is a lie or not in any case the vote is already decided so if the prophecy IS true then oh well
I think the problem people are having with what you are saying is that you are falling into correlation = causation fallacies. Exactly like Observance.

This is a case where correlation != causation. If something comes next mid turn, that is luck/coincidence.
 
IIRC, 3 to 2 expression was more about the TH's warriors are worth 2 to our 3.

But we should be at 3 to 1 now with our horde of elite class archers and the carrion eaters who act as our battle medic.

Going for iron will help us, but that's dependent on the amount we can produce. I expect the improvements will come in the order of:

1. Tools - This will allow us to produce more chariots.
2. Weapons - We only need part of our weapon to hold an edge. The rest can be wood and other materials. Arrowheads, on the other hand, need to be made in sufficient quantity. Otherwise, we cannot waste the iron on those.
3. Armor - laminated or otherwise. Required the most material to protect the users.

Therefore, it is an imperative that we find more mines and expand iron production ASAP.

Okay, I'd say that's broadly right, but the order is wrong:
1) Weapons - The easiest to create with relatively small amounts of iron. You only need to outfit 1-10% of our population with them, and the first revolution would be going to axeheads, knives and spearheads, each only using small amounts of metal for large improvements.
2) Tools - Uses substantial amounts of iron to outfit our whole population. Likely some spinup time since people need to figure out what new tools they could make.
3) Armor - Not in terms of volume, but more in terms of needing substantial amounts of iron to make the tools to make anything more than hanging a plate of metal on your chest and the time to actually figure out what kinds of armor you can make with it.

As for turn plans:
-Remember, ONLY Expand Economy will pay out Economy before the mid-turn.
-Provinces will prefer New Settlements, adding 0 Economy until end of turn.

So it depends on whether theres' any upfront costs.
Assuming nothing goes wrong and we no longer have at least 3 Settlement slots:

[Main] Build Iron Mine
[Secondary] Proclaim Glory
[Secondary] Proclaim Glory x2

Would give us neutral Stability, max out Legitimacy and probably have enough Econ to take measures.

If we have suspicion of prophecy having any basis leaking:
[Main] Expand Economy
[Secondary] Survey
[Secondary] Study Stars

Which will address all the Prophecy options by ensuring availability of Economy, checking for Comets and checking for more mines in case there's something to them.
And meta wise it'd ensure having enough Mysticism to debunk bad shit.

If have suspicions of Bad Shit coming unrelated to the prophecy:
[Main] Proclaim Glory
[Secondary] Survey
[Secondary] Study Stars

Which gives us enough Economy to partially handle any mid turns, gives us a Stability buffer to spend next turn on Iron, look for more iron sites, and also buys us a point of Mysticism to debunk bullshit
 
I think the problem people are having with what you are saying is that you are falling into correlation = causation fallacies. Exactly like Observance.
The problem I am having is that he assumes everything will go wrong and our society will collapse just because our King didn't listen to one mad prophet.
 
@Karugus Because prophecy is a lie, and in this case a complete lie rather than facts strung together in a new way distinct from the typical methods a coherent mind would use.
So? Do you think divination by entrails is some magical truth? Do you think reading the stars can tell you about the future (beyond astronomical phenomenon)? Do you think the fucking dregs of tea aren't a lie? Do you think the marks on my palms hold the secret to my destiny? Obviously not, that'd be moronic. But it would also be wrong for pretty much any culture excepting the last ~3 centuries give or take. And that all of these are incredibly big deals in a lot of ways for cultures, not knowing any better, that base their predictions off these near totally random portents.

And I hate to break it too y'all, but the Ymaryn don't know any better.
 
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So? Do you think divination by entrails is some magical truth? Do you think reading the stars can tell you about the future (beyond astronomical phenomenon)? Do you think the fucking dregs of tea aren't a lie? Do you think the marks on my palms hold the secret to my destiny? Obviously not, that'd be moronic. But it would also be wrong for pretty much any culture excepting the last ~3 centuries give or take.
Just because they believe retarded things, and believe in magic that doesn't actually exist does not mean we should encourage it either
 
More than that though, our trails are good enough now
Actually, no. Redhill, Black River and Southshore have no roads at all.

Think about that.

Uh Yea, The very fact that we have multiple options means its vague enough that it can be interpreted IC 3 different ways (well 4 if you count the ignore)
That makes it Bullshit
In thread we came up with six possible readings if taken independently and two more if taken as a whole.
The thing is, the "prophecy" is so vague that if ANYTHING happens even tangentially related to the words he spouted then he is given credibility
Basically...and there is no timespan set. So you just need something vaguely similar happening 60 years later to 'prove' it
 
Okay, I'd say that's broadly right, but the order is wrong:
1) Weapons - The easiest to create with relatively small amounts of iron. You only need to outfit 1-10% of our population with them, and the first revolution would be going to axeheads, knives and spearheads, each only using small amounts of metal for large improvements.
2) Tools - Uses substantial amounts of iron to outfit our whole population. Likely some spinup time since people need to figure out what new tools they could make.
3) Armor - Not in terms of volume, but more in terms of needing substantial amounts of iron to make the tools to make anything more than hanging a plate of metal on your chest and the time to actually figure out what kinds of armor you can make with it.

As for turn plans:
-Remember, ONLY Expand Economy will pay out Economy before the mid-turn.
-Provinces will prefer New Settlements, adding 0 Economy until end of turn.

So it depends on whether theres' any upfront costs.
Assuming nothing goes wrong and we no longer have at least 3 Settlement slots:

[Main] Build Iron Mine
[Secondary] Proclaim Glory
[Secondary] Proclaim Glory x2

Would give us neutral Stability, max out Legitimacy and probably have enough Econ to take measures.

If we have suspicion of prophecy having any basis leaking:
[Main] Expand Economy
[Secondary] Survey
[Secondary] Study Stars

Which will address all the Prophecy options by ensuring availability of Economy, checking for Comets and checking for more mines in case there's something to them.
And meta wise it'd ensure having enough Mysticism to debunk bad shit.

If have suspicions of Bad Shit coming unrelated to the prophecy:
[Main] Proclaim Glory
[Secondary] Survey
[Secondary] Study Stars

Which gives us enough Economy to partially handle any mid turns, gives us a Stability buffer to spend next turn on Iron, look for more iron sites, and also buys us a point of Mysticism to debunk bullshit
No love for:

[] [Main] Build Iron Mine Bleeding Cliffs
[] [Secondary] Grand Sacrifice
[] [Secondary] Grand Sacrifice x2

?

I give what I feel is a pretty detailed mechanical and narrative analysis as to why this would work out very well for us here, if any kind of Bad Shit is coming (includes DOOM Comet), or set us up nicely in the next turn for doing what we want.
 
I'd rather the following:

[main] Proclaim Glory
[secondary] Policy - Progress
[secondary] Expand Economy

Or

[main] Restore Order
[secondary] Proclaim Glory
[secondary] Policy - Progress.


If we're treating him as sick, we're explicitly not going around and telling people "there might be a comet in the next few years, watch us prepare for it."
What are your reasons for the progress policy? We are at 0 stability, so restore order can't be used.

No, the idea here is that you are reassuring the People that you are prepared for a disaster that you have some warning for. Ignoring it and having a stockpile just means that you have a stockpile to pay for things in the case that everything catches fire.

The prophecy has already been circulated among our people. Treating him as sick is explicitly avoiding setting a precedent for listening to crazy people (and thus avoiding our people wanting to stockpile at bad times, with refusal possibly giving a stability drop).

If we stockpile and proclaim glory while treating him as sick, we'll be publicly telling everyone not to listen to him while at the same time reassuring our people that the chiefs/king aren't stupid and realize that there's a possibility of a comet coming anyways.
 
I really don't care if other cultures had prophecy and would really like for the Ymaryn to not think that mad people babbling is them predicting the future rather than the sad medical issue it is. Like when people use real world examples of how civilizations worked I always take it with a pinch of salt since other cultures of this time took slaves yet I don't think anyone here really likes how close our half-exhiles are slowly becoming a slave cast. Also when people say we can't do something since it is such an advanced thing that we can't possibly do in this era I think how we just skipped the copper age by getting iron and laugh.
 
The Ymaryn got where they are because they are guided by a very wise and knowledgable group of spirits. Granted, we sometime fucked up, but the Ymaryn have yet to experienced famine nor civil strife.
Well there was the drought but we came back from that and kicked Famine in the teeth.
 
So? Do you think divination by entrails is some magical truth? Do you think reading the stars can tell you about the future (beyond astronomical phenomenon)? Do you think the fucking dregs of tea aren't a lie? Do you think the marks on my palms hold the secret to my destiny? Obviously not, that'd be moronic. But it would also be wrong for pretty much any culture excepting the last ~3 centuries give or take.
...? Is there a point that I missed or am missing?

If have suspicions of Bad Shit coming unrelated to the prophecy:
[Main] Proclaim Glory
[Secondary] Survey
[Secondary] Study Stars
Even if nothing goes wrong I would rather do this. Mostly because I'm uncomfortable losing stability, but partly because we're already on Expansion so anything the Survey reveals could be taken advantage of next turn w/o an action on our behalf, as would be the case if we changed policies then did Survey.

But that depends on if we get more settlement options, in which case there might be a possibility that we're expanding too far. Though saying what "too far" is will depend on what the nomads are doing, so...

Actually, no. Redhill, Black River and Southshore have no roads at all.

Think about that.
I disagree and, by all appearances, so does the description of New Trails. As a minor point, you yourself said that Redhill has poor roads, which is why a Main New Trails would overflow. As one did, IIRC.

You're also completely ignoring what AN was saying r.e. *tech* being needed to improve logistics in terms of supplying the ST while still using it as evidence, as you occasionally do, but I imagine you're trying to address a wider issue.
 
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