Main RoO has a 6.25% chance of causing problems unmodified, and that's further reduced by our Humility honor code. It's by far our most efficient option for restoring stability.
Why do you want to avoid it?
Paths of Civilization
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Why do you want to avoid it?
BungieONI
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This is fine to. A little risky, bu thankfully we will not be expanding into the Steppe so only one threat axis uncovered.
Give me the tool you used to calculate that number and I will believe you, though I am less concerned about the chance of it making things worse and the very fact that it is less efficient than Grand Sacrifice in gaining Stability unless it hits the +2 outcome. See my examination.
Argument against RoO compared to Grand Sac. As a secondary it has a significant chance to drop us by -1 Stability. Or do nothing. So, we must take it as a Main. That is two actions invested. One outcome is bad and drops at least another 2 actions fixing it if it is Main RoO again. A neutral option means we have to drop another 2 actions in of RoO. The +1 means it was half as valuable action wise as a Main Grand Sac. And the +2 means it is even.
All percentages are efficiencies. 1 Econ/action for 1 Stability is considered 100% efficiency.
So, there is one outcome out of 4 equally likely choices (even if we are rolling twice in a main and taking the better one, each roll is separate) where it beats out Grand Sac. This tells me Grand Sac is more reliable, if expensive, and with Stability I want reliability more than raw gains.
E: It's Efficieny is also mostly undercut because we can only use it for 2 levels of Stability versus Grand Sac and every other Stability option which can be used anywhere. (I still have not confirmed that RoO can be used at 0 Stability and am assuming it can't)
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I'd have to dig for the quotes to prove the mechanics, but it's basic math. Here's a tool I use when I'm feeling lazy though.
[Main] RoO rolls 2d4 and takes the best dice. Thus there are 16 possibilities, only 1 of which is snake eyes (both 1). 1/16 = 6.25%.
[Main] Grand Sacrifice costs 5 actions (2 real 3 econ) for 2 stability.
[Main] Restore Order costs 2 actions (2 real) and grants an average of 1.13 stability (rounded)
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Perhaps we should stop doing Main actions regarding metal? People have significant negative reactions when we do that. If we do it as Secondaries, which causes no significant negative reactions, then eventually, our people will look back and see "people didn't react badly when they were doing metal stuff in my grandfather's time, so maybe I shouldn't react badly while they're doing metal stuff right now".
Ease people out of the superstition. Advance forward slowly and there will be no major pushbacks, which will eventually result in no one thinking much about it.
Ease people out of the superstition. Advance forward slowly and there will be no major pushbacks, which will eventually result in no one thinking much about it.
As others have said, there is no guarantee we'll get a negative trait, and I'd also argue that any negative trait we get will be even worse if we ignore the warning and something happens. Especially if it is the Doom Comet.
That seems quite likely if a bad event happens. Another way I was looking at it, is if we choose the comet action and nothing happens, then that has a much higher chance of Observance evolving in a positive direction than ignoring it does. If we had more stability then I'd be much happier with ignoring this guy and tanking any disaster that could happen, but we don't.
Hopefully I am wrong. On the other cloven hoof, if I'm not, we're going to be taking a much larger stability hit than we otherwise would.
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So right, this got me a idea, why we don't stack [Main] New Settlement with a [Main] Expand forest until they intermingle?
This way we would receive +1 Mysticism and +2 Economy everytime...
BungieONI
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Reliability is my watch word for Stability. I truthfully in full disclosure think RoO in any variation can go die in a magnesium fire. Why? It is only useful at -2, barely, and -1. (I am assuming it can't be used at 0). Every other Stability option can be used everywhere. That kind of width of use outweighs the efficiency in my mind. The turn if we wanted to blitz Stability right now would be Main RoO + Main Grand Sac. That way we can get +4 Stability if it goes right and we bitch slap corruption so hard it loops back around. What is the chance that it will do nothing by the by, I wanna check my own math?
Sadly I think that course of action is bupkus. I seem to remember AN saying that after Weapons of the Gods showed up that any kind of metal study or mine action would hit Stability, regardless of if it was a secondary or not. Can't find the quote and honestly don't feel it right now (lazy mode is active right now
)Sounds like an awesome plan. And I do have expansion plans where we are in the drivers seat...
If "nothing happens" but the king said a disaster is supposed to be on the way, they will re-interpret the nonsense until they get something that fits, they will not suddenly decide prophecy does not work.
Yeah, I can see it...
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You haven't been studying the latest updates especially closely, have you? TGG kicked in when we accepted the madman's iron recipe which resulted in pushback against Weapons of the Gods. Now if you'll look inside the action lists, you see doing metal stuff as a Secondary doesn't result in any Stability loss at all. Only a Main metal action results in -1 Stability.Sadly I think that course of action is bupkus. I seem to remember AN saying that after Weapons of the Gods showed up that any kind of metal study or mine action would hit Stability, regardless of if it was a secondary or not. Can't find the quote and honestly don't feel it right now (lazy mode is active right now
Huh? This sentence makes no sense at all to me.
A conditionally powerful tool is still a very useful one. I agree, it can only be used at -1 and -2 stability.
If you had the ability to get $1,000 free on the second tuesday of each month if and only if it's a new moon, would you take that offer? I sure as hell would, even though it'd only rarely come up.
-1 stability -> 6.25%
0 stability -> 18.75%
1 stability -> 31.25%
2 stability -> 43.75%
This is assuming unmodified rolls.
BungieONI
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Meh. I did not notice that but I don't have the energy or spite to argue so I'll just say you win this one. *incredibly sarcastic fanfare*
If it turns out we can take a secondary mine yippie ki-yay I'm all over that.
Means we can do other shit.
I am irrational about this, straight up. I like regular, reliable, Stability gains since in recorded history of the quest that I can remember RoO has never helped us. I'd rather not take a risk at all than take one and hope for a +2 gain. Basically I am irrational about rolling stability gains. Much rather a solid number.
As to the offer yes I would take it, because taking it can't make my life worse, it's benefit might happen literally once in a blue moon but it is only a benefit which is not like RoO at all. Otherwise the analogy works.
I really don't want to get into this argument further because I am still angry about perceived failures of RoO to not be a clusterfuck enhancer. I apologize.
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We have never used RoO.
Check again, we've gotten +4 stability from 6 actions spent on it. (Assuming RoH is the same as RoO, and we've never RoH where there would be a difference so there shouldn't be)
edit: Specifically, we got +2 on "Inevitable consequences" and "Of forests and fields", and +0 on "Blackbird Ops".
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BungieONI
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RoH had no bad outcome from what I understood, just neutral because it was one tier higher than RoO on the tech tree that contains them and our other traits. Which means at worst it does nothing. That puts it far above in my estimation.
Again though I want to stop talking about this right now, and I'm just going to quietly disagree until proven otherwise. Which I should be.
Umi-san
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Would this be before or after we mingle walls and watchtowers
BungieONI
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Probably only a smidge after. We could alternate turns of Main Settlement + Main Forest with Main Settlement + Main Walls.
It's literally exactly the same except the maximum stability is 0 instead of 3.
(Sorry for continuing this, just want to make sure you're not planning based on misinformation)
You know, all this discussion about stability has made me realize something...
@Academia Nut
In turn evaluation order, is the Immigrant wave one giant stability drop or is it multiple smaller stability drops with their own separate position in the turn timeline?
That massively changes the death% probabilities for touching -4 stability when combined with the +stability options. I was assuming that the drop happened at once, but narratively it should be spread out...
@Academia Nut
In turn evaluation order, is the Immigrant wave one giant stability drop or is it multiple smaller stability drops with their own separate position in the turn timeline?
That massively changes the death% probabilities for touching -4 stability when combined with the +stability options. I was assuming that the drop happened at once, but narratively it should be spread out...
BungieONI
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Thanks. *hugs*
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That sounds like you are trying to game the system.
BungieONI
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I do believe it is a series of -1's up to the number based on how I understand Greater Good working. It does not make a lot of sense for TGG to be fed a -4 hit or something and convert that into a +4 in a mechanical game balance sense. Though balance means less here. I'd think it's a case of either it can take that -4 and turn it into a +1. Or it is a series of rolls and when the chain breaks it can't flip any more of the hits into pluses.
