The mad man isn't proof of the supernatural. He was injured in the head and one of the Carrion Eaters cracked his skull further to relieve the pressure. It went poorly, but instead of dying he survived with severe brain injury. Even of the Doom Comet does return it won't be proof that his ramblings foretold the future - we already know AN rolls.
 
Really strong circumstantial evidence since there is at least one alternative explanation. If it is low magic personally I see the difference as being immaterial since it seems like the big things are hard to pull off. Would change the world view quite a bit.
It could be one of those settings where the ability of mages grows as their knowledge of how magic works grows. Which would make the big stuff mostly hard to pull off at the beginning.

Of course, this is now baseless conjecture that takes basis in a theory that's already less likely than @Omegahugger not going for the same-sex couple.

If you can prove that the supernatural exists, then it will no longer be supernatural.
Technically, the important part is not that supernatural things exist, but rather that the rules of PoC's world is different from our own.
 
Even of the Doom Comet does return it won't be proof that his ramblings foretold the future - we already know AN rolls.
Until we get mages shooting lightning from their hands, we won't ever have direct proof that "magic exists" (read: physics are different in this universe than in our universe).

That doesn't mean that a correct prediction of a very unlikely event isn't strong circumstantial evidence that something strange is going on. Indeed, it indicates that we should investigate such things more closely.

side note: I definitely want to [Main] mine and [Secondary] Study Stars next turn. Last action is open to debate.
 
I'm sad people aren't going for the stability :(



Don't forget Study Forest as well. As it is, we are pretty shit Dwelves since we have barely studied the forests. Perhaps we can focus on forest related things after we get the iron mine.

I feel the same way when a vote doesn't go my way. Just hope that you're proven wrong, then you'll be glad that you're wrong.
 
Until we get mages shooting lightning from their hands, we won't ever have direct proof that "magic exists" (read: physics are different in this universe than in our universe).

That doesn't mean that a correct prediction of a very unlikely event isn't strong circumstantial evidence that something strange is going on. Indeed, it indicates that we should investigate such things more closely.

side note: I definitely want to [Main] mine and [Secondary] Study Stars next turn. Last action is open to debate.
Survey Lands is a relatively safe option since it is free and opens possibility for new Iron sites.

I'd personally prefer Establish Holy Site - Somewhere so that we have some Mysticism buffer. Or maybe a secondary Proclaim Glory.

Any of these three can fit there.
 
I'd personally prefer Establish Holy Site - Somewhere so that we have some Mysticism buffer. Or maybe a secondary Proclaim Glory.
Assuming you mean Expand Holy Site, I'd be ok with that.

I'm actually thinking Enforce Law though. If we get lucky we get stability which is awesome, and if not we still get centralization which right now is running a bit low. We've got a good number of walled cities, but our latest expansion wave means that it's still going to be fairly effective.

We don't know the chances of Enforce Law giving us stability, but if it's ~50% it's actually our most effective option aside from Restore Order.
 
The Spirit Talkers managed to use the Observance Trait to predict the coming of the comet. The more likely explanation is sadly that our dear prophet saw/read something that convinced him of the comet's coming beforehand, which came out rather in a confused manner following his accident.
Actually, I think that the Comet is coming. If you do a search, every previous comet came in the middle of the month. Work in non-standard turn orders and assume that the Comet becomes more and more likely to be spotted on a given schedule, we're due for a Comet within a turn or two.
 
The only scientific way to predict comets is timing them. We haven't had a comet in centuries, and had our two almost back to back, so that's not possible. If he's predicting a comet, it's magic.

Edit: or rampant dice gods.
Or those are two different comets and they're about to recur soon
 
Assuming you mean Expand Holy Site, I'd be ok with that.

I'm actually thinking Enforce Law though. If we get lucky we get stability which is awesome, and if not we still get centralization which right now is running a bit low. We've got a good number of walled cities, but our latest expansion wave means that it's still going to be fairly effective.

We don't know the chances of Enforce Law giving us stability, but if it's ~50% it's actually our most effective option aside from Restore Order.

It's either 0% or 100% efficient, where 100% means 1 Econ/action = 1 Stability. So yeah it can beat out every other option, and has no chance of making it worse. Really that not making it worse thing is what makes it good, unlike Restore Order. I treat RoO as a rod of uranium in my back pocket because it can make everything worse. Good for rooting out corruption at one specific level of Stability and that's about it.



It could be one of those settings where the ability of mages grows as their knowledge of how magic works grows. Which would make the big stuff mostly hard to pull off at the beginning.

Of course, this is now baseless conjecture that takes basis in a theory that's already less likely than @Omegahugger not going for the same-sex couple.


Technically, the important part is not that supernatural things exist, but rather that the rules of PoC's world is different from our own.
Build up of magic power as you learn more? Sounds like Mystery.



Or those are two different comets and they're about to recur soon
If next mid turn we get the Herald then we know what's coming even if the Ymaryn don't quite remember. That is a huge advantage. Plus if it is the Herald then it will not be as severe of a comet event as the DOOM. This will mitigate a lot of the issues comets bring. Plus we will now have a schedule to plan around which is ungodly helpful even if we have an uncertainty of + or - a turn.



Truthfully my thinking is that AN rolls on a table to see if we get a comet, then he rolls on another table to determine period length.
 
Balanced may make them do that on their own more sustainably.
Right, Balanced. I should have gone and checked the proper name.

Balanced also turns "study stars" back on and gives us information about what our provinces are currently concerned about.

Alas, we're pretty much going to have to sacrifice our own actions for tree-planting, long-term.
 
Something to switch off of Policy: Expansion.
Almost certainly not. We want Expansion for another 2-3 turns at least, unless the Iron mine provides a truly ridiculous amount of econ for us to spend. I want to get our stats to golden age levels again, and Expansion is by far the fastest way to achieve that.

Balanced might actually be reasonable soon though since our 3 new settlements mean we've got a good number of Expand Economy slots and I'd love to get a Study Stars chain going again. On the other hand, these megaprojects are looking very nice...
 
Actually, I think that the Comet is coming. If you do a search, every previous comet came in the middle of the month. Work in non-standard turn orders and assume that the Comet becomes more and more likely to be spotted on a given schedule, we're due for a Comet within a turn or two.
WHUT? That makes no sense at all. First of all, comet periods are incredibly unlikely to align with our calendar, so middle of a month has nothing to do with anything.

Second, "Work in non-standard turn orders and assume that the Comet becomes more and more likely to be spotted on a given schedule, we're due for a Comet within a turn or two." is not a description of an actual mathematical process. It's fancy words for 'I'm guessing'
 
Or those are two different comets and they're about to recur soon
What I'm actually thinking is that they might be an entire...flock? flight? pod?...of comets, all on the same general course, but not passing at the same time, meaning that without magnification equipment, we're actually missing all but the lowest flying ones, which is why AN is rolling for it-there's a possibility we see one, a possibility we see multiple, or a possibility we don't see any at all.

My nightmare scenario in all of this is that we Ignore, stock up our Economy, and a disaster strikes that we just can't handle anyway, giving us the worst of all worlds. If we were publicly DOING SOMETHING then at least when everything goes tits up (because seriously, we've had more turns in a crisis that out of it) we could point people at that and say we tried. More, that would probably do more to break the superstition than him just plain being wrong. Think about how we've pushed back the Weapons superstition. It wasn't that we broke the belief, it was that we convinced the people that the curse just didn't matter compared to killing all of our neighbors before they could kill us. Apply that to prophecy: If we prepare and fail anyway, we can point out to the people that a vague prophecy isn't actually useful. Make some decent laws surrounding prophecy against being wrong or wasting people's time, and bob's your uncle, we've averted one of the biggest issues with ancient religion.
 
WHUT? That makes no sense at all. First of all, comet periods are incredibly unlikely to align with our calendar, so middle of a month has nothing to do with anything.

Second, "Work in non-standard turn orders and assume that the Comet becomes more and more likely to be spotted on a given schedule, we're due for a Comet within a turn or two." is not a description of an actual mathematical process. It's fancy words for 'I'm guessing'
Okay. Listen. Turns are about twenty frickin' years. It doesn't have to line up to the day, just the general time period.

And yes, it was fairly rough, but you have to realize that we had quite a few updates that were middle turns what with wars and such. I could go back and measure exact periods, but frankly, I don't have quite that much ambition. Feel free to prove me wrong though!

Also, @Academia Nut care to weigh in?
 
Expansion is the single fastest way to get ourselves into another losing war with the nomads.

Doubly so when you're explicitly setting out not to wall the resulting settlements.
Almost certainly not. We want Expansion for another 2-3 turns at least, unless the Iron mine provides a truly ridiculous amount of econ for us to spend. I want to get our stats to golden age levels again, and Expansion is by far the fastest way to achieve that.

Balanced might actually be reasonable soon though since our 3 new settlements mean we've got a good number of Expand Economy slots and I'd love to get a Study Stars chain going again. On the other hand, these megaprojects are looking very nice...


I'm thinking next turn will be best suited as:

Main Build Iron Mine Bleeding Cliffs
Secondary Grand Sacrifice
Secondary Change Policy - Balanced

That sets the Mine up. The Grand Sacrifice nullifies the Stability. And the Policy Change satisfies defenses and Valleyhome will nigh 100% do Study Stars for us.
Resource flow is: At least +3 Econ from the Mine and -1 Stability, -2 Econ + 1 Stability from the Grand Sac, and Balanced mean the Provinces will do the best things for them which usually translates to the best things for us.

Blackriver is still protected via the March, it doesn't open up any surface area to the Nomads. As to the rest...
Good to hear we will stop being stupid about going into the steppe. Time to look at the East then.
 
I'm thinking next turn will be best suited as:

Main Build Iron Mine Bleeding Cliffs
Secondary Grand Sacrifice
Secondary Change Policy - Balanced

That sets the Mine up. The Grand Sacrifice nullifies the Stability. And the Policy Change satisfies defenses and Valleyhome will nigh 100% do Study Stars for us.
Resource flow is: At least +3 Econ from the Mine and -1 Stability, -2 Econ + 1 Stability from the Grand Sac, and Balanced mean the Provinces will do the best things for them which usually translates to the best things for us.


Good to hear we will stop being stupid about going into the steppe. Time to look at the East then.
We should probably make a new March to give the Stallions Tribes relief and have them focus only on the nomads to their North and let the other March take care of the Northeast.
 
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We should probably make a new March to give the Stallions Tribes relief and have them focus only on the nomads to their North and let the other March take care of the Northeast.
We can do that the turn after this. We are at 10 Martial so we could build a March, though I'd rather do it after we definitively have Iron so most of their equipment is Iron.

So it'd go

Main Build Iron Mine Bleeding Cliffs
Secondary Grand Sacrifice
Secondary Change Policy - Balanced

Into mid turn where hopefully nothing breaks.

Into.

Main Found March North East
Secondary Build Chariots
Secondary Econ Expansion or something

We end at 7 Martial and have secured ourselves so we can help the newly born March defend itself alongside it's big brother until it can do it itself. Which will take max 2 turns.
 
We can do that the turn after this. We are at 10 Martial so we could build a March, though I'd rather do it after we definitively have Iron so most of their equipment is Iron.

So it'd go

Main Build Iron Mine Bleeding Cliffs
Secondary Grand Sacrifice
Secondary Change Policy - Balanced

Into mid turn where hopefully nothing breaks.

Into.

Main Found March North East
Secondary Build Chariots
Secondary Econ Expansion or something

We end at 7 Martial and have secured ourselves so we can help the newly born March defend itself alongside it's big brother until it can do it itself. Which will take max 2 turns.
Sounds about good however why not Proclaim Glory since our stability is capped at 2?
 
Sounds about good however why not Proclaim Glory since our stability is capped at 2?
That Grand Sac is meant to nullify the Stab cost of the mine as it gives only 1 and the mine will only take 1. A secondary Proclaim gives no Stability, and one on the Iron turn means we are at -1 Stability for the March turn and everyone clamors for Main RoO which throws the entire thing catywompus.
 
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