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I just want to say, @Rando, It's fun watching you work your way through the thread with the notifications we get. Good on you for reading the whole thing, I know I wouldn't have the patience for it.
 
We're working through some things that have been sitting in our QUINOA for a while and will be posting them here as we manage it. Bear with us; it's going to be a long process, since all three of us are pretty buried at the moment.

This particular post is about various things that were suggested by players. Let me start by saying that we really appreciate y'all pitching in, and if we reject an idea it's nothing personal. It might get downchecked for a variety of reasons, and none of them are "because you, Bob, are a bad person and therefore all your ideas are bad because you are bad, Bob." We don't intend to litigate our reasons for refusal; if we're open to modification and resubmission we'll say so, but if we simply downcheck something then please allow that to be the end of it.



@faflec ing requested:

@Inferno Vulpix (and others?), you did a bunch of work on ninja demographics and death rates for us. We were looking for a modification, but I've lost the reference for it, and I'm unsure if we ever came to a conclusion and signed off. Could you please find us the pointer if we did, or offer the modification requested below if we didn't?

Demographics & Promotion Rates

Okay, so the [120 graduates per year, 90/9/1 ratio] input set gave us decent numbers for Genin but possibly too-large numbers for Chuunin and Jounin. Does your average Jounin really live to 50, or should it maybe be closer to 40?

What we can do here is take the number of genin deaths per year from that input set (108) and fix it in place. Actually, 19-23 averages 21, or 9 years, so let's fiddle with it a little:
  • If we have 120 deaths per year, we get 10 & 6.7, average 8.4 years of service.
  • If we have 130 deaths per year, we get 9.2 & 6.2, average 7.7 years of service.
  • If we have 125 deaths per year, we get 9.6 & 6.4, average 8.0 years of service exactly.
So let's fix in place our numbers of 125 dead Genin per year, with the average Genin lifespan being somewhere between 18 and 22. Now we want to figure out how many Chuunin and Jounin die per year on top of that. We had 10.8 Chuunin dead per year and 1.2 Jounin dead per year, and these gave us kind of large numbers. What if we tweak them a little?
  • Let's assume 15 Chuunin dead per year. That gets us 17 & 11 years of service for a lifespan of about 27-33 years.
  • Let's assume 2 Jounin dead per year. That gets us 25 & 17 years of service for a lifespan of about 38-48 years.
If we go with those numbers, the average Academy class size is 142 ninja. Of those ninja, 15 of them are going to get promoted to Chuunin and only 2 of them are going to make it to Jounin. Does that sound reasonable?

Modification requested:

We'd like to see the lifespans be shorter than suggested above. The average genin graduates at 12 and dies at 16-18. A large plurality of those who make it to chūnin (typically around the age of 18) die within a year due to suddenly being sent on more difficult missions. Those who make it past that first year will probably make it to 22-25, at which point they get promoted to jōnin or special jōnin. Jōnin have another high-mortality year after promotion and nearly all of them die within 5 years. Those who make it past 30 are likely going to become S-rank badasses who are able to live to 60 or 70 before dying of relatively natural causes like old age or disease.

The implication is that only the top genin get to go to the Chūnin Exam at ~14-16.

Modification requested:

Lightning Jutsu: Earth Breaker
The user sends a large surge of lightning chakra through the ground, breaking it and any object or structure on it apart and leaving behind piles of rubble and torn ground.

Casting Speed: Standard

Duration: Instant

Effect: Removes (Effect) levels of Border from the selected zone boundary, to a minimum of 1. The user can also choose to leave the boundary as high as (Effect) Border if it would otherwise have been lower (e.g. if you cast it with Effect 5 then you could reduce a Border 3 down to Border 1 or up to Border 5).

(I don't really know how Borders work in practice but I think the general idea of what the jutsu does can still be made use of if this version is wrong)
Borders don't really pop up that much since ninja are so fast and can wall-walk, so this seal isn't going to be very useful and there's no reason for it to have been invented.

Maybe flip it so that it creates a Border in the former of a zappy energy fence/wall?



The following are downchecked:


Lightning Jutsu: Glare of Death
The user looks at someone and laser beams shoot out at them, crossing vast distances in the blink of an eye to electrocute the target.

Casting Speed: Standard

Duration: Instant

Effect: Regular attack jutsu, can be aimed up to two zones away.

Stunt: Cross-eyed
Requirements: GoD 30.

Cost: 150 XP

Effect: You can use Glare of Death on two enemies simultaneously, provided they are in the same zone as each other, at a 1 AB penalty [Cross-Eyed].

Stunt: Eagle-Eyed
Requirements: GoD 50.

Cost: 300 XP

Effect: You can use Glare of Death up to three zones away, at a 1 AB penalty [Specks in the Distance].

(The intent for this jutsu is that it's a fairly decent ranged jutsu, and if you can get it to the higher levels then there are some expensive stunts that take it from fairly decent to pretty strong.)
 
Demographics & Promotion Rates

Modification requested:

We'd like to see the lifespans be shorter than suggested above. The average genin graduates at 12 and dies at 16-18. A large plurality of those who make it to chūnin (typically around the age of 18) die within a year due to suddenly being sent on more difficult missions. Those who make it past that first year will probably make it to 22-25, at which point they get promoted to jōnin or special jōnin. Jōnin have another high-mortality year after promotion and nearly all of them die within 5 years. Those who make it past 30 are likely going to become S-rank badasses who are able to live to 60 or 70 before dying of relatively natural causes like old age or disease.

The implication is that only the top genin get to go to the Chūnin Exam at ~14-16.

Last time this came up, I believe I suggested you should include a factor for some percentage of female ninja temporarily or permanently leaving the "ninja workforce" in order to have children and raise them. How many do that and if they stay out permanently or only until the child reaches a certain age varying from clan to clan, person to person, etc., etc., but population-wide you should be able to put a number on it.

EDIT: Also that "casualties" aren't the same as "deaths" and a good number of ninjas will be out due to permanently disabling injuries rather than actually dying.
 
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@eaglejarl could you confirm what I'm looking for? It sounds to me that you want a confirmation that you signed up to make ninja lifespan shorter, or the original quote suggesting it should be made shorter? It looks like you've already found the latter quote, so I'm not sure if I got this right.
 
So we've been talking in discord, and if the ENs act anything like Earth (round and rotating) it should be pretty obvious due to skywalkers.

Since angular momentum on the ground is lower than what is needed to maintain position at altitude this means you can stand in place and the planet will visibly rotate under you if you are a few kms up. So if this doesn't happen the ENs do not rotate.

This happens because skywalkers lock to you and preserve your angular momentum - otherwise they would risk tearing your legs off.
We would know anyway, I'm pretty sure.We've been up really high, so the curvature of the planet should be obvious unless we're on one of those Jupiter*10 sized xianxia planets (I think).

Aside: "Flat earth" as it pertains to our world is also a common historical misconception, and it wasn't really ever a thing (various other astronomy related kerfuffles are a different story). Like some other stuff (some interesting trivia there I recall being told at some point but never knew were actually false), supposedly.
 
We'd like to see the lifespans be shorter than suggested above. The average genin graduates at 12 and dies at 16-18. A large plurality of those who make it to chūnin (typically around the age of 18) die within a year due to suddenly being sent on more difficult missions. Those who make it past that first year will probably make it to 22-25, at which point they get promoted to jōnin or special jōnin. Jōnin have another high-mortality year after promotion and nearly all of them die within 5 years. Those who make it past 30 are likely going to become S-rank badasses who are able to live to 60 or 70 before dying of relatively natural causes like old age or disease.

Terrible and atrocious military death rate. I hope we will somehow fix that.

We would know anyway, I'm pretty sure.We've been up really high, so the curvature of the planet should be obvious unless we're on one of those Jupiter*10 sized xianxia planets (I think).

Aside: "Flat earth" as it pertains to our world is also a common historical misconception, and it wasn't really ever a thing (various other astronomy related kerfuffles are a different story). Like some other stuff (some interesting trivia there I recall being told at some point but never knew were actually false), supposedly.

I have been told by someone in this community that we wouldn't still be able to see the curvature even though we went really high up.
 
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I have been told by someone in this community that we wouldn't still be able to see the curvature even though we went really high up.
Might be conflating this with "that other experiment proposed one of those last times this topic came up that takes like three seconds to do."

I think you'd be able to reasonably suss this out just by asking a sailor if the sunlight sets later in the crow's nest than on the deck of the ship, or something. Thats decent evidence for "Probably not flat or Weird Chakra Planet Simulation Stuff"
 
@Inferno Vulpix (and others?), you did a bunch of work on ninja demographics and death rates for us. We were looking for a modification, but I've lost the reference for it, and I'm unsure if we ever came to a conclusion and signed off. Could you please find us the pointer if we did, or offer the modification requested below if we didn't?
The specs for your modification are actually word-for-word what you gave me on Discord a while ago and I made a second calculation sheet based on it a while back:
The following is a non-confirmed quote from eaglejarl on the discord about ninja demographics that he wants checked for plausibility:

Now, as a recap, Konoha in a 'stable state' (i.e. before the USoUD and BotG) has about 1200 Genin, 250 Chuunin, and 50 Jounin. Okay, let's go.

Genin:
Genin have a fairly even death rate here, let's average that out and say that a Genin lives from 12 to 17, five years. This means that 240 Genin die, get promoted, or go missing a year and 240 Genin graduate from the Academy each year.

Chuunin:
Chuunin can be put in two groups: doomed Chuunin and Jounin-track Chuunin. Doomed Chuunin die in less than a year, let's round that off to a flat year for simplicity. Jounin-track Chuunin stay Chuunin for about six years before becoming Jounin. This means that for every year of Doomed Chuunin there are six years of Jounin-track Chuunin to work with.

There are 250 Chuunin in Konoha. If 2/3 of new Chuunin are doomed Chuunin, then there are (1/3 * 6) = 2 years of Chuunin, 3 times as many Jounin-track Chuunin as doomed Chuunin walking around at a given moment. That means there are about 190 Jounin-track Chuunin and about 60 doomed Chuunin in Konoha.

This amounts to a draw of about 90 Genin a year, meaning that of the 240 Genin that graduate from the Academy, about 150 will die as Genin, about 60 will die as doomed Chuunin, and about 30 will likely hit Jounin.

Jounin:
There are three categories for Jounin here: doomed Jounin, regular Jounin, and S-track Jounin. Doomed Jounin die within the first year, and the regular Jounin population die within five years (let's say an average of 3), leaving only the S-track Jounin alive beyond that.

There are 50 Jounin in Leaf in a stable state. That means that there's one year of doomed Jounin, three years of regular Jounin, and something like thirty years of S-rank Jounin that together equal 50.

Starting from the S-rankers, let's make a generous estimate that Konoha averages about 5 S-rankers normally. That drops our Jounin pool down to 45 between the doomed and regular Jounin.

At a draw of 30 new Jounin per year, n of them are doomed Jounin and m of them are regular Jounin. With a total non-S-track Jounin population of about 45, we get the following equations: n + 3m = 45 and n + m = 30. Rearrange for n = 30 - m and substitute as (30 - m) + 3m = 45 and solve for m = 7.5. Round that off and we can conclude that of the 30 new Jounin Leaf gets each year, 22 of them are doomed Jounin and 8 of them are Regular Jounin. Or, in other words, 73% of Jounin die in their first year and 27% die within five years.

(S-rankers have been omitted from these calculations because 5 S-rankers at 30 years per S-ranker is one S-ranker every six years, a rounding error of the Jounin population).

In Conclusion:
Taking the not confirmed numbers eaglejarl provided on discord and making a few small assumptions to extrapolate from them:
  • The Academy class size is something like 240 Genin a year.
  • About 150 of those Genin (63%) will die as a Genin, and the other 90 will be promoted to Chuunin.
  • About 60 of those Chuunin (67%) will die within a year, and the other 30 will be promoted to Jounin.
  • About 22 of those Jounin (73%) will die within a year, and the rest will die within five years.
  • S-rankers are a rounding error.
edit: math error in Chuunin calcs.
edit2: improved Jounin model and fixed calcs.
Back then you said the numbers I was working with were non-confirmed, should I take it that they now have general approval from the QMs?

If you want me to expand the model to calculate more numbers, or if you spot a mistake or something you don't like in how things shake out, let me know and I'll take a second pass through it.
 
Well, the Aburame do have microscopes, and they do sell lenses to outsiders willing to pay. They could probably put a telescope together on contract since the concept isn't secret.
 
Lightning Jutsu: Earth Breaker
The user sends a large surge of lightning chakra through the ground, breaking it and any object or structure on it apart and leaving behind piles of rubble and torn ground.
Casting Speed: Standard
Duration: Instant
Effect: Removes (Effect) levels of Border from the selected zone boundary, to a minimum of 1. The user can also choose to leave the boundary as high as (Effect) Border if it would otherwise have been lower (e.g. if you cast it with Effect 5 then you could reduce a Border 3 down to Border 1 or up to Border 5).
(I don't really know how Borders work in practice but I think the general idea of what the jutsu does can still be made use of if this version is wrong)
Borders don't really pop up that much since ninja are so fast and can wall-walk, so this seal isn't going to be very useful and there's no reason for it to have been invented.

Maybe flip it so that it creates a Border in the former of a zappy energy fence/wall?
I still don't know what numbers work well for Borders, but I can put something together for this I think. Also it's a jutsu not a seal

Lightning Jutsu: Electrospider's Den
The user sends a large surge of lightning chakra through the ground, leaving the surroundings swathed in electric webs stretching from structure to structure or to and from electric chakra construct posts in absence of suitable structures. The coverage isn't enough to prohibit traversal, but any passing ninja will surely be slowed down weaving their way through the impromptu maze.
Casting Speed: Standard
Duration: a few minutes
Effect: Creates 3 * [Effect] levels of Border on [Effect] / 2 (rounded up) continuous zone borders.

So I figured out the scaling of Borders. Since it's an Athletics roll against TN 0 and you need the shifts from that roll to equal the border if you want to pass, your enemy's predicted Athletics level / 3 is what the border should be for a 'fair' contest, give or take.

By making the jutsu scale at 3 * [Effect], when cast at level 30 you get 12 Border. If the enemy has Athletics 30, then their average roll will be 10 shifts of success against TN 0, and therefore their success against the Border will depend on their fudge dice rolls, AB contributions, and other Athletics boosts. Therefore if the jutsu is on par with the enemy's Athletics (which is not unreasonable for peer combat) they could plausibly succeed or fail depending on the dice.

(Note, at 30-30, the jutsu has a little bit of an advantage, but Athletics scales directly with level but this jutsu scales with Effect so for not-divisible-by-10 levels of Athletics the advantage is reduced or disappears entirely. Furthermore, the attacking ninja has chakra boosting and the ability to call on aspects so the advantage in all honestly probably still lies with the ninja)
 
Back then you said the numbers I was working with were non-confirmed, should I take it that they now have general approval from the QMs?
Not confirmed yet, sorry. I've put the updated version in our QUINOA and asked the others to take a look.

If you want me to expand the model to calculate more numbers, or if you spot a mistake or something you don't like in how things shake out, let me know and I'll take a second pass through it.
Would you mind factoring in @Briefvoice 's suggestion below?

Last time this came up, I believe I suggested you should include a factor for some percentage of female ninja temporarily or permanently leaving the "ninja workforce" in order to have children and raise them. How many do that and if they stay out permanently or only until the child reaches a certain age varying from clan to clan, person to person, etc., etc., but population-wide you should be able to put a number on it.

EDIT: Also that "casualties" aren't the same as "deaths" and a good number of ninjas will be out due to permanently disabling injuries rather than actually dying.

@eaglejarl could you confirm what I'm looking for? It sounds to me that you want a confirmation that you signed up to make ninja lifespan shorter, or the original quote suggesting it should be made shorter? It looks like you've already found the latter quote, so I'm not sure if I got this right.
@Inferno Vulpix got it for me, thanks.

Aside: "Flat earth" as it pertains to our world is also a common historical misconception, and it wasn't really ever a thing (various other astronomy related kerfuffles are a different story). Like some other stuff (some interesting trivia there I recall being told at some point but never knew were actually false), supposedly.
There are people who believe it today, despite literally having photos from space that show it's round.

Well, the Aburame do have microscopes, and they do sell lenses to outsiders willing to pay. They could probably put a telescope together on contract since the concept isn't secret.
Are microscopes canonical in MfD? I don't remember actually showing one, but my brain is cheese.
 
Chapter 317: In Which Many Things Do Not Bode Well

The first thing Hazō noticed was an absence of both Keiko and Tenten in Shikamaru's office, which did not bode well both because it signified a lack of Keiko and because for the last couple of months Keiko had been keeping Shikamaru sane, and Tenten had been keeping Keiko sane. The second thing he noticed was that the bags under Shikamaru's eyes were slightly smaller than usual, perhaps by a few millimetres, which boded considerably better, unless it was a sign that Shikamaru had gone insane and no longer cared. The third was the mess—while Shikamaru's office invariably looked like it had been hit by a sealing failure, albeit one that left the chaos in distinct stacks of paper, this one was worrying even by his standards. Overall boding, therefore, came down on "vaguely ominous".

Shikamaru looked up from an eye-watering list of figures, with an expression of either disappointment or relief at the distraction from his work. It could be hard to tell the two apart where Shikamaru was concerned.

"What business are you about to inflict upon me, esteemed brother-in-law?"

"Actually," Hazō said, "I was looking for Keiko. I was hoping to get her help preparing for a mission."

"Ah," Shikamaru said slowly. "I'm afraid that Keiko is no longer with us."

Hazō froze. The images flashed through his mind. Keiko, reeling from Snowflake's litany of abuse. Keiko kneeling. Keiko's hollow stare when he came to talk to her in the bedroom, and the fact that none of the Gōketsu had seen her since.

But also Keiko's promise to herself. Hazō had faith in his sister, probably more than she'd ever be able to accept.

"What is she doing, Shikamaru?" Hazō asked with frustration, only just stopping himself from lashing out at Shikamaru for what was, ultimately, Hazō's own interpretation of ambiguous wording.

"I apologise for being unclear," Shikamaru said. "I meant to inform you that she has left the village."

Was he doing this deliberately? There were some things Hazō was not comfortable hearing about the girl who'd once run away to another dimension to escape the consequences of an unintended revelation about her feelings.

"For what purpose did she leave the village, Shikamaru?"

Shikamaru sighed and slid a slip of paper across the desk. Hazō picked it up.

"I'll bring you back a souvenir ^_^"

"Ami instructed me to give you this if you reached the correct question with sufficient alacrity."

The promise of a souvenir did little to calm Hazō's building wrath, especially a souvenir chosen by Ami, which could be anything from exotic chocolate to a live flying squid named Madoka. (Though this was coming from the man who'd given her a stuffed octocat as a random present.)

"Shikamaru," Hazō said with forced patience, "the next time you lie to me on Ami's instructions, I will turn the full power of my creativity in your general direction, and I promise you that you will not enjoy it."

Shikamaru swallowed. "I knew from the moment I first caught Ami's interest that I was headed for the abyss of ruin. At least now I have Keiko to inherit the clan."

"Never mind," Hazō said. "I'll accept that a normal human being can only accept so much responsibility for Acts of Ami. Right now, you still haven't answered the question."

"She is out hunting the Condor Summoner," Shikamaru said matter-of-factly.

Another mark against boding well. Hazō had been wondering when the pangolins would finally get round to giving her a mission. And when they would end up sending her against the much more experienced summoner of an avian clan. At Nagi Island, less than a dozen people had leveraged air superiority to nearly wipe out the greatest army ever made. If it hadn't been for skywalkers, there wouldn't even have been a battle at all.

That was setting aside the fact that his sister was currently one of the most wanted people in the Elemental Nations thanks to the Pangolin War and its revelations about Gōketsu capabilities.

"Tell me she's bringing half of Leaf with her," Hazō said.

"Both of the other coordinators, as well as a KEI escort. The Hokage signed off on letting Naruto out of the village, which tells me that he is taking the mission with the seriousness it is due. Ami, meanwhile, is not a combat specialist, but she is nevertheless a jōnin, and terrifyingly creative. Come to think of it, I really must find out what she has done to herself to make that possible, in case it can be applied to Nara productivity."

Shikamaru paused.

"On second thought, a full clan of proto-Amis would promptly take over the world for their own amusement, and given the kinds of activity that amuse her…"

"So she's going to hand over the Condor Scroll as part of the KEI contribution, rather than for the Gōketsu or Nara?" Hazō asked, forcibly blocking the image before the imaginary proto-Amis found some way to coordinate and take over his soul (or at least play for keeps against the horrors of the Out, with Hazō's own will as a civilian population caught in the middle).

"Indeed. She wishes to avoid a conflict of interest, the note said, as well as live up to the expectations of the ninja who have accepted her in a coordinating role despite her obvious unworthiness et cetera et cetera. Which, I will admit, is an effective move, insofar as having the coordinators take on a difficult and dangerous challenge purely for the sake of benefiting the KEI will cement individual loyalty in a way that bypasses the Hokage's more pragmatic-level efforts."

Hazō nodded. "And if the scroll is in their hands, they can extract additional concessions from the pangolins, to be handed over alongside it. Unless they just want to hand it over to a KEI ninja, which they're allowed to do because of those personal ownership rules Keiko once made very very clear to us."

Shikamaru shook his head. "If, at the last second, it becomes obvious that the donation of the scroll will not be enough to close the gap with other contenders, perhaps. I doubt it, however. What the KEI lacks in most respects, it compensates for with numbers, and many of those numbers are likely to have their own ideas to suggest, not to mention simple manpower superiority."

Hazō suppressed a groan.

"She's going to have three seats on the Clan Council," he said miserably. "One she's already wrangling out of the Hokage, one for Naruto as KEI coordinator, and now she's going to have one of her subordinates make a clan for the third. That's one seat for every month she's been here."

"Insofar as my beloved wife shares my global priorities," Shikamaru added, "a KEI policy that she has approved may well also find favour with me. Where Ino-Shika-Chō interests are not harmed, or where the KEI provides sufficient compensation for any harm dealt, that could be six votes. A fact worth reflecting on before making further threats."

Hazō reflected on this.

"Maybe I was too harsh. We both know that there is only one person to blame for all this, and in fact for pretty much everything other than Nagi Island and the Great Collapse. Frankly, we only have her word for it that she isn't the one who resurrected Orochimaru. Shikamaru, would you consider an alliance of convenience?"

"Unfortunately, the Nara and the KEI signed a formal armistice treaty at the time of the latter's formation, as a precondition for Keiko's present degree of independence. I think it would be injudicious to break it, and suffer unspecified diplomatic consequences, as well as Keiko's recently-honed death glare, unless there was a clear and present reason to do so."

"Fine," Hazō said. "Plan B, then. Shikamaru, could I ask you to help us optimise? There are certain clan secrets I'd like to leave out, but other than that, this is an official mission given by the Hokage. It's separate from any inter-clan competition."

"Very well," Shikamaru said. "I assume the Hokage chose the Gōketsu because he needs a minor country annihilated? Grass, presumably. Or either of Fang or Claw, as a weapons test that would also send a meaningful message to Hidden Rock. Bring whomever else you wish present for the discussion. I will be refreshing myself on the existential risk contingency files in the meantime."

-o-
XP will be awarded by @eaglejarl as appropriate.

-o-
What do you do?

Voting closes on Saturday 10th of January, 9 a.m. New York Time.
 
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"What is she doing, Shikamaru?" Hazō asked with frustration, only just stopping himself from lashing out at Shikamaru for what was, ultimately, Hazō's own interpretation of ambiguous wording.
He's learning! 🏆
"Tell me she's bringing half of Leaf with her," Hazō said.

"Both of the other coordinators, as well as a KEI escort.
In other words, yes she is. :p

It may be a short update and EJ will have to finish the plan, but I still like it!
 
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