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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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Jello_Raptor said:
Yes, hence why I stated up front that I had revised my estimates down from when I had written that initial estimate. I even did it for those exact reasons.




I dispute 5 seconds, because of how macerators work it should be a lot faster. See the next bit, especially how ignition occours. I figure around half a second to a second. I did mention in a seperate post that more of the energy
would be released as radiative heat than my initial estimate.



I agree with your first few points, hence me saying, in the post you quoted, that I revised those numbers down for the reasons you state.

But the whole point of macerators is that they evenly distribute particulates in a volume of air. They were designed to produce an even mixture with an even mass ratio of payload to air throughout. Getting very high efficiency for this use case was why I designed the macerators the way I did.

Ignition is also different than a traditional fuel air explosive, since instead of a single point of ignition and a blast wave that accelerates, we get a whole pile of simultaneous ignitions through the volume. This means we get lots of tiny little blast fronts that don't sum together. So again, we get a blunted shockwave.

I'm annoyed because none of this is new and was worked through before you even asked for the math, albeit over a series of posts.
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Sorry for being annoying. I fully admit to not having read much of the thread and not devoting sufficient time and energy to directly address concerns, and I'm sorry I didn't see this earlier. I had thought I did an analysis post on Fire-Log macerator damage over a year ago, but I might not have posted it or might not have done any more than the most basic of research at which point I concluded it wouldn't be crazy.

That said, if I accept your argument and say fire-log macerators will combust at the range of 0.5-1 seconds, we are comparing that to dynamite which acts far faster. As an example of the speed at which dynamite reacts, we have this video (specifically from 4:45-4:51), which shows dynamite exploding in slow motion.

That takes 6 seconds at 210,000 frames per second to fully combust, which equates to ~0.0007 seconds. if we take the fast side of your estimate on fire-log macerators, this results in a factor of ~700 difference in scale. At that point, I believe we are operating far outside the range the FEMA explosion damage model was built to accommodate (as it deals with energy and not power which is what I believe will drive the shockwave damage) and thus ought not use it. If we *must* use it rather than sawdust cannon examples, then I'd recommend a factor of 700 reduction based on "time of explosion," separate from concerns about incomplete combustion and material composition.
 
eaglejarl said:
Yep, you totally called it. The post you quoted was replying to this one, where @faflec called me out for forgetting a thing that I myself had said and I was now repeating the mistake.
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S'ok. I get how it works; @faflec gets credit when anyone displays surprising recall just like @Radvic gets credit for every idea for WMDs.

I guess I can live with just getting implicated every time anyone mentions a conspiracy. :ninja:

E: what's with all the hug reacts? you guys think that's a coincidence? :whistle:
 
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Here's a question: Say you were standing in the epicenter of the blast. Would it do anything more than singe off your eyebrows and maybe blind you?
Vecht said:
S'ok. I get how it works; @faflec gets credit when anyone displays surprising recall just like @Radvic gets credit for every idea for WMDs.

I guess I can live with just getting implicated every time anyone mentions a conspiracy. :ninja:
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What do you know about the Minami conspiracy?
 
Vecht said:
PHYSICS FIGHT!
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I'm pretty sure what the QMs should take away from this is that it's really not clear what would happen in this specific instance of physics and magic, and so they've got some leeway. I don't *think* anyone in the player-base would have strong legs to stand on if QMs interpreted fire-log macerators as either:

  1. Fire-log macerators are like explosives. There's a big bang and shockwave. Damage is primarily caused by the shockwave and shrapnel, and extends as @Jello Raptor calculated yesterday.
  2. Fire-log macerators are like fireballs / sawdust cannons. There's a big fireball. Damage is primarily caused by fire and heat, and extends on the order of magnitude of how far a macerator expends its payload with heat felt beyond that.

Personally, I think the second interpretation is more likely, and thought that was what the QMs had decided on based on fire-log macerator descriptions in Chapter 116 (a "rapidly expanding fiery doom-ball" which emitted a lot of heat, and no mention of shockwaves), but I'm not going to particularly complain about interpretation 1 being used by the QMs, after-all, it's free explosive power.
 
Man, we really need to start the industrial revolution so we can DO something with all of this free energy lying around.
 
Cariyaga said:
Man, we really need to start the industrial revolution so we can DO something with all of this free energy lying around.
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My meat processing plant business proposal is on stand-by until the exams end, but once said exams are over we can use that to gain some appreciable starting capital to pursue more seal-tech based industries, provided the Merchant Council signs off on those innovations, Jiraiya allows it, etc.
 
Dictator4Hire said:
My meat processing plant business proposal is on stand-by until the exams end, but once said exams are over we can use that to gain some appreciable starting capital to pursue more seal-tech based industries, provided the Merchant Council signs off on those innovations, Jiraiya allows it, etc.
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Could you link to it? It's been a while since I've seen it.
 
Radvic said:
Sorry for being annoying. I fully admit to not having read much of the thread and not devoting sufficient time and energy to directly address concerns, and I'm sorry I didn't see this earlier. I had thought I did an analysis post on Fire-Log macerator damage over a year ago, but I might not have posted it or might not have done any more than the most basic of research at which point I concluded it wouldn't be crazy.

That said, if I accept your argument and say fire-log macerators will combust at the range of 0.5-1 seconds, we are comparing that to dynamite which acts far faster. As an example of the speed at which dynamite reacts, we have this video (specifically from 4:45-4:51), which shows dynamite exploding in slow motion.

That takes 6 seconds at 210,000 frames per second to fully combust, which equates to ~0.0007 seconds. if we take the fast side of your estimate on fire-log macerators, this results in a factor of ~700 difference in scale. At that point, I believe we are operating far outside the range the FEMA explosion damage model was built to accommodate (as it deals with energy and not power which is what I believe will drive the shockwave damage) and thus ought not use it. If we *must* use it rather than sawdust cannon examples, then I'd recommend a factor of 700 reduction based on "time of explosion," separate from concerns about incomplete combustion and material composition.
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I'm not sure about incomplete combustion, my assumption was that there is some overlap between near optimal ratio of air to dust, and ratios where combustion will cascade. Which is more iffy than I realized at first.

As for the second bit, yes, I realized my mistake there already. The number that matters more is the ideal air/dust ratio that the macerators would be set to.

Since we can get a decent estimate of the volume/diameter/temperature of the fireball from that.

Problem is I don't think the sawdust cannon is a decent approximation here. I think that the examples you show are much less efficient than our ninja magic version would be.

I expect it to be more similar to a dust explosion or thermobaric weapon, albeit with shock damage revised down 1-2 orders of magnitude from the weapon version due to lack of coherent blast front. Damage from radiation would be about the same.

Problem is I don't have a good way to take a stab at the ratio even if my intuition agrees with a full macerator producing a fireball with ~30 meter radius.
 
Cariyaga said:
Could you link to it? It's been a while since I've seen it.
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Here it is.

It's a bit wordy since we would be doing something we've never done before, but I still think it's worth doing almost a year later in real time. Hopefully there's more in game information we've learned in that time that will make starting an industry easier, but if not we can spend some time in Leaf filling in those gaps in our characters' knowledge.
 
Dictator4Hire said:
My meat processing plant business proposal is on stand-by until the exams end, but once said exams are over we can use that to gain some appreciable starting capital to pursue more seal-tech based industries, provided the Merchant Council signs off on those innovations, Jiraiya allows it, etc.
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One would think to start with raising cattle rather than meat processing, otherwise a meat processing plant isn't going to make much sense without the cattle needed to feed it.

The agriculture market is most likely limited to the city of which there is only forty thousands.

Meanwhile, an airyard will employ hundred of people in several specialties in building large airships made for shipping large amount of goods and people from one city to another.
 
Cariyaga said:
What do you know about the Minami conspiracy?
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???

Why would I have anything to do with invoking a Patreon subscription reward to get Vel to write a capable and well meaning but naieve and inexperienced character, eternally suppressed by our biggest rivals and jumping at the bit to prove herself? How could I know that suggesting she get assigned duty to lead us around, coupled with EJ's hesitance to allow us to stay in Leaf would result in constant friction and tension on stressful missions, culminating in the thread both trying too hard to earn her trust and at the same time being too trusting with secrets best kept? And I can't be blamed at all for her literally throwing herself between us and a dangerous jonin attacker without thinking, as if that were somehow a core character trait written on some fictional character sheet, as if she were intended the entire time to serve both as a buffer against an otherwise inevitable death and a stark reminder to the thread of our character's and team's mortality.

I've truly no idea what you're talking about.

...It's a damned shame we didn't learn that one jutsu from her first, though.
 
eaglejarl said:
Oh, hey, check this out. I think this is the post where fire log macerators were originally suggested, and it was exactly 2 years ago: #19252
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Actually my initial macerator proposal mentions thermobaric weapons with sawdust, and is a few hundred pages earlier. And I'm pretty sure I got the idea from someone else mentioning the thermobaric weapon idea before that.

Unless you mean the wood + hot coals bit, in which case maybe.
 
Vecht said:
???

Why would I have anything to do with invoking a Patreon subscription reward to get Vel to write a capable and well meaning but naieve and inexperienced character, eternally suppressed by our biggest rivals and jumping at the bit to prove herself? How could I know that suggesting she get assigned duty to lead us around, coupled with EJ's hesitance to allow us to stay in Leaf would result in constant friction and tension on stressful missions, culminating in the thread both trying too hard to earn her trust and at the same time being too trusting with secrets best kept? And I can't be blamed at all for her literally throwing herself between us and a dangerous jonin attacker without thinking, as if that were somehow a core character trait written on some fictional character sheet, as if she were intended the entire time to serve both as a buffer against an otherwise inevitable death and a stark reminder to the thread of our character's and team's mortality.

I've truly no idea what you're talking about.

...It's a damned shame we didn't learn that one jutsu from her first, though.
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In case anyone was confused: Vecht was / is a Patreon supporter of @Velorien. As his Patreon reward, Vecht create the character and character sheet of Minami Nikkō and Velorien wrote her into the story.
 
Adept_Woodwright said:
@Radvic

https://www.wbdg.org/FFC/DOD/UFC/ufc_3_340_02_2008_c2.pdf - for equations and method. This is what the military provides engineers interested in designing against explosive effects.
I ended up needing to extrapolate fairly outside of the intended use of the tables provided, so take this with a rather large grain of salt...

My method is based on using the pressure at the initial shock interface as the initial shock overpressure which deteriorates as it travels. From this, calculate the equivalent TNT needed to produce that shock overpressure at that radius from the point of initiation. Using the equivalent weight, find corresponding radii from tables that match given lethal/wounding/damage overpressures.

Using 1.3 e12 Pa as the pressure at R = 0.5 m, and extrapolating the chart for peak overpressure at sea level for a hemispherical burst, we get a scaled distance factor of 0.0001, which means we are looking at an equivalent yield of TNT of 1282 Megatons of TNT. About an order of magnitude (~25x) stronger than the Tsar Bomba Thermonuclear device ( Tsar Bomba - Wikipedia ), the strongest weapon ever developed (and tested!) by mankind.

From this, one easily uses the chart to determine the overpressure that corresponds to lethal, wounding, and building damage (these values seem reasonable off of charts in UFC-3-340-02)
lethal 275790 Pa --- Z = R/W^(1/3) = 8 ft/lbm^(1/3) (units off of chart, sorry)
wounding 103421 Pa --- Z = R/W^(1/3) = 11 ft/lbm^(1/3)
building damage 34473.8 Pa--- Z = R/W^(1/3) = 22 ft/lbm^(1/3)

The conversion to R is given as R = Z*W^(1/3) = Z * 14141 *.3048 -> m
So
lethal -> 8*14141*.3048 = 34482 m ~ 34.5 km
wounding -> 11*14141 *.3048 = 47413 m ~ 47.4 km
building damage -> 22*14141*.3048 =94825 ~ 94.8 km

Neutron bomb - Wikipedia claims that a 1 kiloton neutron bomb would cause overpressure of ~ 5 psi (the building damage case) at 600 m. Scaling at R^3, 100x distance (x e6) puts this at 1000 Megaton, roughly on the same order as this estimate. 600 m x 100 = 60000 m = 60 km. We have a stronger device, but not that much stronger, so this estimate still seems conservative, taking 1282 Megatons of TNT to be accurate (biiiig grain of salt)

I had to extrapolate much further off the chart for estimating equivalent TNT than I would have liked, and the method is not ideally suited for an initial uniform pressure instead of an initial pressure front. If someone is more savvy on that for this calculation, I would appreciate an update.

I imagine radiation *will* be an issue for this. I'm not familiar enough with the material to really want to try to estimate it.

Smaller yields will be much more comfortable using the tables in the guidance, if someone is curious about other point and doesn't want to bother downloading the guidance I linked.
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Adept_Woodwright said:
Also relevant, for burninators, youthenators or whatever the going name is right now

From ufc_3_340_02, which I linked to previously.

"Only about one-third of the total chemical energy available in most high explosives is released in the detonation process. The remaining two-thirds is released more slowly in explosions in air as the detonation products mix with air and burn. This afterburning process has only a slight effect on blast wave properties because it is so much slower than detonation."
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Adept_Woodwright said:
The fact that the dust is in fine granules will not make a difference to the 1/3 energy question - HE explosives present oxidant directly from molecular composition. Cant get much more close than that.

I readily admit to not having any personal experience with actual explosions, let alone dust explosions. That said, the fuel-to-air ratio will be the driver for how readily the material combusts. Dust explosions explained | Characteristics, ignition and effects suggests that a density of fuel in the air should be somewhere above 30 - 125 g/m^3, depending on what kind of dust you think the material is best represented by. Most powerful explosion if the oxygen ratio to fuel is exactly that needed to 100% burn the fuel.

As for Radvic's concern, I think you are generally much more likely to see real dust explosions in a confined space (grain silo, dust exciting equipment, etc). Some dust explosions are conflated with deflagrations, where the ignition front travels only at subsonic speed. I think the seal gets around this because it distributes the ignition source through the entire dust cloud, so the generation of heated gas occurs at the speed of an explosion (or faster), rather than that of a deflagration. We wouldn't benefit from directionality of the propagation of the ignition front, but I don't think we care about that.

I'd do my calculations for a closed system that converts 1/3 of chemical energy into random motion (Temperature) figure out what the pressure is at the interface of the closed system to the real world, then let her rip.
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Adept_Woodwright said:
I won't have time for proper analysis til the weekend at the earliest, but
http://www.hysafe.org/science/eAcad...eAE_TutorialOnDeflagrationsAndDetonations.pdf
seems particularly instructive. Note, it is several papers, not one really long one.
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I also recall discussing fuel-air bombs. It was in April of last year, though it does not appear that I actually went through with any calculations.

I remember @Radvic being heavily involved with the same topics, though the majority of both of our spoons were pointed toward implosion seals.
 
Adept_Woodwright said:
I also recall discussing fuel-air bombs. It was in April of last year, though it does not appear that I actually went through with any calculations.

I remember @Radvic being heavily involved with the same topics, though the majority of both of our spoons were pointed toward implosion seals.
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So you might say that your spoons were devoted inwards? Eh? Ehhh? :D
 
Kiba said:
One would think to start with raising cattle rather than meat processing, otherwise a meat processing plant isn't going to make much sense without the cattle needed to feed it.

The agriculture market is most likely limited to the city of which there is only forty thousands.
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It all depends on where Leaf gets a majority of its meat. If it's a bunch of different sources at random intervals setting up a plant would be ill-advised, but that's what the reconnaissance portion of the plan is for. There's just so much we don't know that starting any industry now would be extremely risky.

Kiba said:
Meanwhile, an airyard will employ hundred of people in several specialties in building large airships made for shipping large amount of goods and people from one city to another.
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If the Merchant Council won't get in the way of this, I am all for it. I've wanted Zeppelins since 2016 and I still want them now, mundane or seal based.

Do you have a proposal to start an airship industry? I would love to read it and offer constructive criticism. The sooner we have airships the better.

Cariyaga said:
Hm... @Dictator4Hire What do you think about utilizing our unique ninja skills in such a way that it does not encroach upon the MC's domain? Namely, by killing and butchering chakra beasts? We could partner with the Akimichi on this.
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Killing chakra beasts is already a normal ninja mission and the idea was to employ civilians so that it is a business operated by civilians that we just happen to own. Ninjas can probably supply the workers but having ninjas do the actual butchering would probably infringe upon the workers' rights the Merchant Council exists to protect.
 
Dictator4Hire said:
Killing chakra beasts is already a normal ninja mission and the idea was to employ civilians so that it is a business operated by civilians that we just happen to own. Ninjas can probably supply the workers but having ninjas do the actual butchering would probably infringe upon the workers' rights the Merchant Council exists to protect.
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Yeah, but I feel like there's probably an untapped market for chakra beast meat regardless of whether ninja process them or not. I mean, with a little bit of spin, and the Akimichi's help, you could get them to sell like hotcakes.
 
Cariyaga said:
Yeah, but I feel like there's probably an untapped market for chakra beast meat regardless of whether ninja process them or not. I mean, with a little bit of spin, and the Akimichi's help, you could get them to sell like hotcakes.
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I could see more of a business in processing the exotic parts of chakra beasts like the paralytic agent we had from those chakra dragonflies (IIRC) and the iron bristles from the boars shortly after the original swamp. There's no question that parts of chakra beasts like that would be desirable since we proved how effective they can be. There's also no question that civilians can't easily and reliably do it themselves, but I see one of the main benefits of starting a business as a way to create a (mostly) passive income for our clan just as the other clans have their own businesses.

We could keep doing everything ourselves, but at this point as clan heirs we should look into ways to delegate our more trivial needs so we have more time overall for more projects. If we have to go along with all of the bull shit of being a noble we might as well take advantage of the perks too.
 
Didn't we have trouble selling steelback? It seems that some locale had no idea the use of certain chakra beast parts, though Konohagakure is the least likely to be ignorant of part uses.
 
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