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On the other hand....

This is a universe where "he's only one man" is not always an accurate threat assessment. If Itachi is just straight up killing one ninja every few seconds, moving as rapidly from one to the other even as the bodies drop, then how difficult would it be? If we assume he's got S-class taijutsu skills then he just straight up wins every single roll, no chakra boost required. Maybe there's five or six jounin in the entire clan who he might have to spend chakra to beat, and if he catches them in a genjutsu or something they're gone too.

Too, the timing of the massacre is entirely under Itachi's control. Waiting for a night when

One possibility is that no Uchiha were serving shifts in the ABNU, being on far-away missions, patrolling the city, guarding Hokage or whatever else they might have been doing.

is true. He's the clan heir and clan star. If he wants to see everyone's duty schedules, it's nothing suspicious. Though I did once read a fanfic where there were two or three Uchiha on far-away missions and Itachi immediately pursued them to 'clean-up' after the main clan massacre, racing against warning messages to kill them before they knew what had happened.
 
Too, the timing of the massacre is entirely under Itachi's control. Waiting for a night when

is true. He's the clan heir and clan star. If he wants to see everyone's duty schedules, it's nothing suspicious. Though I did once read a fanfic where there were two or three Uchiha on far-away missions and Itachi immediately pursued them to 'clean-up' after the main clan massacre, racing against warning messages to kill them before they knew what had happened.
Holiday in which all Uchiha clan members are expected to attend, missions be damned.

Wouldn't it be hilarious if Itachi killed them all on his birthday?
 
What if the Uchiha active ninja weren't actually massacred? What if they've just all gone covert while Leaf spews out some nonsense about Itachi flipping his shit and joining Akatsuki. But really Itachi is just sitting in his ANBU office and sipping a lemonade.

Then the other villages would think Leaf was a lot weaker than it really is, and it would get antagonistic villages to start fights that they can't actually win, and let Leaf quickly be rid of some rivals.

All that stuff about Itachi capturing Naruto? J made it up to preserve Itachi's secrecy. Pein caught him.

*awards self one "jetfuel can't melt steel beams" point*
 
What if the Uchiha active ninja weren't actually massacred? What if they've just all gone covert while Leaf spews out some nonsense about Itachi flipping his shit and joining Akatsuki. But really Itachi is just sitting in his ANBU office and sipping a lemonade.

Then the other villages would think Leaf was a lot weaker than it really is, and it would get antagonistic villages to start fights that they can't actually win, and let Leaf quickly be rid of some rivals.

All that stuff about Itachi capturing Naruto? J made it up to preserve Itachi's secrecy. Pein caught him.

*awards self one "jetfuel can't melt steel beams" point*
And now I have this hilarious image of Itachi wearing sunglasses with his feet propped up over his desk, with the words "Deal With It" hanging over his head.
 
What if the Uchiha active ninja weren't actually massacred? What if they've just all gone covert while Leaf spews out some nonsense about Itachi flipping his shit and joining Akatsuki. But really Itachi is just sitting in his ANBU office and sipping a lemonade.

Then the other villages would think Leaf was a lot weaker than it really is, and it would get antagonistic villages to start fights that they can't actually win, and let Leaf quickly be rid of some rivals.

All that stuff about Itachi capturing Naruto? J made it up to preserve Itachi's secrecy. Pein caught him.

*awards self one "jetfuel can't melt steel beams" point*

It's a bit too complicated of a plan to pull off, but I wouldn't be surprised if Leaf had a couple Uchihas stashed away for a dark day in an underground facility under Leaf somewhere.
 
I just know that if we put that in a plan it would come out terribly because that's exactly the kind of question that would invoke Hazou's Trouble :p

So, the solution to the hivemind not learning from its social blunders was to change the system to one where this could be modelled as a mechanical aspect of Hazou's character? The QMs sure are clever.
 
We can guide Hazou towards the correct hypothesis. Also we can leverage pre-existing tech/seals/jutsu to invent new stuff. Mostly nukes.
Right, but that's different from Hazou suddenly being able to build nukes; it seems more like a Thinker ability which functions by 'nudging' the host in a relevant direction, but doesn't give the host any knowledge they didn't already have.

Also, if we were a Tinker host shard, you'd think @Radvic would have nudged Hazou into making an accidental nuke by now.
 
It's true, being a deadly ninja can see you through a great variety of idiocies.
I'm not quite clear on the difference between "having capabilities that see you safely through idiocies" and "those decisions not being idiocies." For example, it would be an idiocy for me to attempt to trap a cobra or other venomous snake. It is not an idiocy for a trained and equipped snake catcher to do so, precisely because he has the capabilities that will get him safely through it. Am I mistaken?

There's a large spectrum of possibilities there if you permit the "low odds" ones.
It seems to me like in real life, the sum of all "low odds" possibilities is often higher than the sum of all "high odds" possibilities. So we probably should permit them.

The fact that Jiraiya hasn't been passed a message on where they're keeping Naruto really argues against that.
How do we know that he hasn't been passed such a message? Merely because he hasn't told us that he has. Y'know, he's a ninja. They can be secretive, even dishonest at times.
Strictly speaking, what we *know* is that we haven't seen any Uchiha, Uchiha family house is for sale (IIRC)
We don't know either of those things. For all we know, we personally know several Uchihas who are keeping their identities secret. Even if we've seen a house identified as the Uchiha family house advertised as "for sale," have we confirmed that it actually was that estate and that it actually is for sale?
Counterargument: Clans will hire @Radvic to build nukes.
No they won't. He'll do it for free.
 
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It seems to me like in real life, the sum of all "low odds" possibilities is often higher than the sum of all "high odds" possibilities. So we probably should permit them.
Low odds probabilities in aggregate, yes, but any individual low odds probability, no. That leads to privileging the hypothesis.
 
I'm not quite clear on the difference between "having capabilities that see you safely through idiocies" and "those decisions not being idiocies." For example, it would be an idiocy for me to attempt to trap a cobra or other venomous snake. It is not an idiocy for a trained and equipped snake catcher to do so, precisely because he has the capabilities that will get him safely through it. Am I mistaken?

Having capabilities that see you through idiocies = Murdering your entire clan and torturing your little brother to make sure he hates you, then getting away clean.
Not being an idiot = Don't be in a position where you were going to be doing that in the first place.

How do we know that he hasn't been passed such a message? Merely because he hasn't told us that he has. Y'know, he's a ninja. They can be secretive, even dishonest at times.

Naruto's recovery is of sufficient importance that if there's actionable intelligence then Jiraiya ought to be acting on it over any other priority. While it's possible he's playing some extremely low key game of pretending he doesn't know and arranging iaction in secret, I find it unlikely he would draw matters out that way much less be in a foreign village rather than giving it his full attention.
 
Naruto's recovery is of sufficient importance that if there's actionable intelligence then Jiraiya ought to be acting on it over any other priority. While it's possible he's playing some extremely low key game of pretending he doesn't know and arranging iaction in secret, I find it unlikely he would draw matters out that way much less be in a foreign village rather than giving it his full attention.
Unless he has the memories of the actions locked away by his pet Yamanaka (Agent Black, I believe?), and Naruto is actually stowed somewhere safely? Not sure why he'd keep that secret, though.
 
I don't believe Jiraiya is faking the Naruto situation. Konoha currently looks weak because of the death of their Kage, the kidnapping of their Jinchuriki, and the death of a dozen or so ANBU. There is no way Konoha would want to look weak, since it would encourage other villages to ally with each other against Konoha. Even if Konoha wanted their enemies to underestimate them they sure as hell don't want them to work together and mass-attack them.
 
I don't believe Jiraiya is faking the Naruto situation. Konoha currently looks weak because of the death of their Kage, the kidnapping of their Jinchuriki, and the death of a dozen or so ANBU. There is no way Konoha would want to look weak, since it would encourage other villages to ally with each other against Konoha. Even if Konoha wanted their enemies to underestimate them they sure as hell don't want them to work together and mass-attack them.

I'm not sure what the other villages or the public actually know about this. Jiraiya and Naruto's jounin-sensei are the only non-Akatsuki survivors. The death of a Kage is obviously impossible to hide, but other than that? Seems perfectly reasonable that Leaf and Mist fought, both Kage and some prominent Mist jounin died, and that's that. Not even sure Mist are aware Yagura might still be alive.

Unless he has the memories of the actions locked away by his pet Yamanaka (Agent Black, I believe?), and Naruto is actually stowed somewhere safely? Not sure why he'd keep that secret, though.

Obviously the whole ordeal was a way for the Sage to throw away his Hiruzen persona and possess Jiraiya. He is clearly aware where Akatsuki, an organization secretly led by his brother Dummy, are keeping Naruto. Just watch as he's miraculously recovered in the nick of time, and "Jiraiya" is allowed to remain as Hokage and continue the lupchanz breeding program.
 
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