Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest
- Thread starter eaglejarl
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- naruto rationalist romance armageddon is looking better and better damn you kishimoto explosions everywhere explosives solve everyone if in doubt surrender to the mercy of zabuza it seemed like a good idea at the time looks like a really bad case of being a jōnin my god. where does the lore end? precommitting is the winning plan screaming in kagome screw the rules i have explosives something bad might still happen sometimes you gotta sociopath stabby zabby subsection c of paragraph 9 should include we can weaponize this so hard open voting
This is not complex game theory. This is the use of the word "counterfactual" which I'd expect him to know, understand, and appreciate that we were using it to mean a very specific thing.
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- The Soviet Republic of Canuckistan
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- He/Him
I'm going to solve this problem by explaining the intent of our message and then explicitly instructing Pilot to phrase it as he best sees fit.
redzonejoe
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I never unvoted for your plan, I'm not going to hold my vote hostage to demand you make changes, but I do want to say that I heavily favor including Noburi in the surgery.
I'm sure Hazo could convince Noburi that this surgery thing is kinda (iron)nerve-wracking, and having his mednin brother, apprentice to Tsunade, helping out would make him feel a lot better. Hell, if it comes down to it Noburi could probably just attend as a shadow clone. I don't think Orochimaru will care much about the treason of it, right? ecks dee.
On the other side, I don't think Orochimaru will object to having Noburi there as an assistant or observer, because mechanically he's actually quite good, as has been pointed out. It might take some light convincing, but really Noburi's training speaks for itself here.
Note, this is impossible, Noburi's SCs last 10 minutes.
Secondary note, Noburi is primarily valuable to Oro in this context because of his bloodline, and his SCs lack it
redzonejoe
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Oh - not commenting on the specific example, I think that one would actually be fine, just musing on the general reasons I might expect game-theoretic arguments not to work too well on Orochimaru. (I did explicitly wonder if I should clarify that in my original post, and then decided not to; will update in the direction of doing that in future!)
Sure, making a complicated argument from game theory to Orochimaru is going to result in Oro auraing Hazou until he wets himself and then biosealing him into a nerve farm.
I doubt Oro's completely uninterested in it though. It's interesting stuff, he thinks interesting stuff is cool.
- Location
- The Soviet Republic of Canuckistan
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- He/Him
Plan updates. We ask Noburi to come with and the stuff about the oath we want Orochimaru to swear is now specified to the QMs with Pilot interpreting our intent.
@Paperclipped @Velorien @eaglejarl if there are any problematic sections (e.g., 'I don't understand this', 'Hazo will reject this out of hand') a heads-up would be cool, if you can provide said heads-up without violating QM norms around information we shouldn't have etc.
What is the TN to do undo a bioseal that would likely be tamper-resistant from the world's best biosealer, and how long would it take to get there? You're right that the time is not infinite, but I suspect we don't actually want to make biosealing our capstone stat and would rather spend that time on something with a better promise of being OP for the new rift era such as more runecrafting or minatosealing. A promising buff from biosealing, additional chakra reserves, has been revealed to not be solely a bioseal but requires sourcing ninja parts to graft onto yourself.
Help me understand why Hidan's blood sense is an instant loss and cannot be accounted for in our strategy with some more time to think. Note Orochimaru may still pivot to thinking a full commitment of Leaf is better depending on his analysis of our runes, which would throw stealth out the window anyway. We may be letting the urgency of the matter narrow the range of viable plans.
- Complete surprise with the RER barrage itself is not possible because they already create a conspicuous humming windup in the zone before detonation. Early alert would let them connect it to an attack, but anyone with the survival instinct to make it to jonin would likely start running regardless of knowing that. Therefore what RER is relying on is saturation bombing that will make it impossible to escape a danger zone before the explosion. Additionally, clearing the static traps in the fortress is unaffected. Someone let me know if ambush mechanics say differently. Also I foresee many ways that sitting in a static spot 1 mile from the rift fortress can be discovered mid-infusion that don't require Hidan at all.
- Leaf's attacking force cannot achieve complete surprise either, because Akatsuki's sensory abilities distributed between Itachi, Kisame, and Konan will detect them once they get close enough, and I wager at least 1 of them will survive RERs. Konan in particular is least likely to die to RERs. Or even a patrol flier. Detecting Hazo may give them time to setup a formation and erect additional fortifications but this is irrelevant to RERs. In fact, a defensive formation is more prone to clumping.
- "Akatsuki detaches their force to nip Hazo in the bud and kill him" - this is a move that we can anticipate and punish. AB 5 shadow clone has a range of 2.5 mi. Hidan's blood sense I range at no more than 3 mi based on "a few miles" from the dossier. Many times in the past we agonized over how to lure the Akatsuki into range of our runic payloads, well this is now our golden opportunity to do so. In particular, air leadener can be configured to 5 km = 3.1 mi range. Have a bait shadow clone covered by leadener creep into the blood range and then rush to infuse a landmine or perhaps storm rune. If they send a hunting force, spring the trap. A full strength detachment is foolish of them given how the rift is their win condition, and Hazo could very well be a diversion so that they leave their fortress minimally guarded. Indeed we can decide to position the Leaf force either nearby to counter ambush or far away for a flank attack depending on the trap. Meanwhile another clone inches in to setup another trap or to start setting up RERs if there is no response.
- "Akatsuki observes Hazo to learn what he is doing with runes" - the above diversionary clone helps with this, basically we just convince them that runes are being used to setup a forward base or traps and not offensive artillery, which is outside their framework for sealing.
- "Akatsuki can send a signal to invoke AMITY and raze Leaf" - fair, but if they were committed to doing this they would do this with a summoner messenger, and nothing short of RERs coincidentally killing all of their summoners could prevent this, which I find highly unlikely.
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This makes sense as a refutation if you were arguing against someone who endorsed any of those previous hypotheses, or if you believed them yourself and are using it as a reason to distrust those instincts, but if you're arguing someone who didn't, this would more correctly be weak evidence against your position.
I'm not saying you should take my word on basis of this, I think you should make your decision dominantly on the basis of the object level arguments, I just think it's also worth being careful about what evidence says.
Caveat that it's been a while and while I don't recall endorsing any of those arguments I could be misremembering the referents.
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- France
None of these strategies are workable. Point by point:
That's a very risky plan, because we can't predict their exact path - and we need such a prediction, because aiming RERs is quite slow due to runic drag. Everyone here has 3D movement, so setting up a killzone is hellish. And RERs suck against aerial moving targets.
The optimal strategy of alpha-striking from surprise is made possibly by the fact that they have a single fortified position that we intend to collapse on their heads. Even with air leadeners, we don't want to bet on being able to aim at an essie on the move. That's a lot harder !
No, they create a humming where they are, not where they're hitting. The rune itself hums, it doesn't light up its target.
The current plan to achieve surprise was to set up our runes from 2km away, at night, high in the air. That should be enough to beat the sensory abilities of Itachi and Kisame, who remain limited by eyesight (and quite likely don't have telescopes like we do, those are ridiculously hard to get). Meanwhile Hidan has an esoteric bloodsense that has an even longer range and probably isn't limited by darkness. Hence why we need the bioseal.
No we can't ? If I understand you correctly, you're saying "make RERs very far away, then move a shadow clone into Hidan's range and ambush Akatsuki when they sally out against us".
That's a very risky plan, because we can't predict their exact path - and we need such a prediction, because aiming RERs is quite slow due to runic drag. Everyone here has 3D movement, so setting up a killzone is hellish. And RERs suck against aerial moving targets.
The optimal strategy of alpha-striking from surprise is made possibly by the fact that they have a single fortified position that we intend to collapse on their heads. Even with air leadeners, we don't want to bet on being able to aim at an essie on the move. That's a lot harder !
The problem here is that Hidan will notice us before our runes are set up, and then Akatsuki will sally out and kill us. And once we're fighting essies head to head, things get dramatically more dangerous, as said above.
The people most likely to survive RERs shot from stealth are the non-summoners. If we can set up an RER alpha-strike, we have decent odds of successfully destroying their logn-range communication capabilities.
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Crossover bonus means we'd only need Biosealing 32 to roll it as well as our Sealing, and it's single-cost under Sealing as well:
So it's actually not a huge investment to get our raw stat that high, or to keep it at par with our other Sealing skills as we improve. The secondary skills (MedNin/MedKnow/Carving) add some cost, but probably nothing too unmanageable.