Is there confidence this effect would not lifewipe the world? Has anyone done the calcs for a superchiller of this size and duration? Granted, much depends on the elevation at which the superchiller is deployed, but assuming skytower deployment…

Oppenheimer at least did the math. Let's not do less.
Hmm. Assuming the entire surface of the Superchiller AOE has constant Mach 1 winds flowing into it (which it won't, but that means this should present an upper bound), if it has a radius of 100 metres it will consume and liquefy about 4.3*10^7 m^3 s^-1 of air, or about 2.6 cubic kilometres per minute. Over a 30-day activation period (high end of "a few weeks") it would therefore liquefy at most ~110,000 km^3 of air. A rough estimate for the volume of Earth's atmosphere ... well, even if you consider only the troposphere, and only part of it at that, a 10km spherical shell around the planet has a volume of approximately 5*10^9 km^3, more than four orders of magnitude bigger. So we wouldn't be making a meaningful dent in Earth's atmosphere.

What about the floods? Well, 110,000 km^3 of gaseous air is about 110,000 * (1.2/870) = ~150 km^3 of liquid air. That's a lot of cryogenic liquid, but it's being produced over the course of weeks; a lot of it will evaporate. Even if it didn't, it definitely wouldn't lifewipe the world; spread over an Earth-sized planet's surface, it would form a layer ... 0.3 millimetres thick. And bear in mind the yield is probably much lower than that, because the sphere will probably not actually have Mach 1 winds entering every section of it; I'm not familiar enough with fluid dynamics to be confident, but I'd expect other factors to become limiting.

I also don't think it would lifewipe the Elemental Nations, though I don't have the expertise to say - this is emphatically not my field. But I do think it wouldn't be safe to set one of these off uncontained at O'Uzu, unless we're comfortable with possibly losing all of O'Uzu, all of Nagi, maybe Moon, and maybe Mist or Sea as well (though they'd probably have enough warning to evacuate). I think it probably depends on how long it takes the cryogenic floods to chill the ground/freeze the ocean enough that they're not constantly boiling away as they go, and on how that interacts with sunlight warming the ground and where the liquid flows and ... etc.
 
Okay this is horrifically awful for the players. Can I suggest to the QMs that they not dump this on us 5 minutes to midnight? The rules regarding DoB and SSA have always been for research and not regular infusions. Changing this now is beyond unconsionable.

If you must do it for timeladdered down runes, fine, but normal runic infusions? Now? When we're about to fight Akatsuki with all of our plans relying on mass runic deployments? I can't believe this is up for discussion.

Hazo unfortunately must deal with the fact that he gets special QM attention for balancing; meanwhile, this is obviously not the case for other characters in setting.
 
Is there confidence this effect would not lifewipe the world? Has anyone done the calcs for a superchiller of this size and duration? Granted, much depends on the elevation at which the superchiller is deployed, but assuming skytower deployment…

Oppenheimer at least did the math. Let's not do less.
The original EM nuke effect that we tested was approximately 50 meters across. The effect should be ~roughly proportional to surface area of the AOE since we are rate limited by the winds.

Assuming 250 meters across that means superchiller lethal radius will be roughly 25 times as large, since surface area of the AoE is proportional to radius squared, that's enough for a kill radius of about 250 miles. So enough to sunder a country. But not enough to end the world.

I can't recall if Akane did an air burst in her initial test, but if she did then doing this on the ground would likely cut the lethal radius in half, since we'd go from a spherical effect to a hemisphere.
 
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Oppenheimer at least did the math. Let's not do less.
How?

We've discussed the problem in the Discord. We are genuinely unsure how to model this without major computational resources and CFD simulation. We've tried a bunch of analytical methods to guess at the size and the bounds range from "not much larger than the last EM Nuke" to "typical hurricane" to "planetn't"


Assuming 250 meters across that means superchiller lethal radius will be roughly 25 times as large, since surface area of the AoE is proportional to radius squared, that's enough for a kill radius of about 250 miles. So enough to sunder a country. But not enough to end the world.
This assumes the radius of the storm scales linearly with the surface area of the AOE of the effect. We don't know that. It might scale sublinearly, or it might not scale at all and it's just a fixed size away from the surface of the AOE, or it could scale faster than linearly.
 
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How?

We've discussed the problem in the Discord. We are genuinely unsure how to model this without major computational resources and CFD simulation. We've tried a bunch of analytical methods to guess at the size and the bounds range from "typical hurricane" to "planetn't"
We use the QM's model, since they're the ones writing the story, and extrapolate upwards to account for an EM Nuke with diameter an order of magnitude larger.
When Hazō says 'we got that snow appearing in mid-air', what he means without realizing it is 'you pushed the temperature below -78C and the carbon dioxide in the air started condensing out and turning into dry ice.'

The effects of the Elemental Mastery nuke are extremely hard to predict. We-the-MfD-community have spent literally half a decade trying to figure this out, talking to different experts in various flavors of physics, and our best models are still very uncertain guesses. Based on all that, here's what the QMs have decided to go with:

Elemental Mastery changes the temperature of the air in a given zone by up to 5C per level, meaning that Akane's level 40 allows her to change things by +/- 200C. This change comes on slowly, the air cooling/heating over the course of a few seconds. Air that leaves the zone initially retains its magically-assigned energy but thereafter answers to normal thermodynamics and will shift to match the ambient temperature.

The jutsu lasts for as long as the caster concentrates and then another 10 minutes per level thereafter, meaning 400 minutes (6.66 hours) in Akane's case. The duration cannot be altered. What happens when Akane cools an area as much as she can, especially when she does so on a cold day and there happens to be a thunderstorm rolling in from not far away?

Carbon dioxide (CO2) condenses at a measly -78C. Oxygen is a bit more resolute, sustaining its gaseous nature down to -186C. Nitrogen is the most obdurate of the group, making it all the way to a beefy -196C.

The exact size of a zone is flexible, but in open terrain we're calling it a circle 50m [EDIT: this later got revised to 30] meters in diameter. When the temperature in this area drops to about -80C you're going to see dry ice precipitating out as snow. Once it drops to -200C you're going to see the air itself converting into a liquid and raining down. It will hit the ground, instantly boil back into gas, and spread out to the sides. The air liquifying will reduce the pressure in the zone, thereby pulling air down from above and around the zone. The result will be a sphere of inward-drawn air blasting a torrent of icy hell at the earth.

Should there happen to be any interesting weather formations in the area that aren't too high up, they will be sucked down into the effect and lend their own sparkle to the destruction.

The aforementioned destruction will come in a variety of forms. In the immediate area of the zone you get Mach 1 winds, meaning around 400 mph given the cold air. (For reference, the strongest hurricane ever recorded had winds of 185 mph and the strongest category-5 tornados are up to 318 mph.) Then you've got the cryogenic liquids freezing everything. If the 'anything' has water inside it (or sap, or blood, or...) then it will freeze and expand, destroying whatever it was inside. The liquid nitrogen (LN2) and liquid oxygen flow outward as a flood being driven by those hyperhurricane winds. They freeze everything they run into and also batter it with tons of kinetic energy.

Everything within a 0.75 mile radius is completely obliterated and a crater is dug into the ground, ranging from 'massive' in sand or loam to 'modest' on stone.

Everything within a 1.5 mile radius is destroyed. Concrete buildings are leveled, trees are demolished, etc.

Every living thing within a 12 [EDIT: the revision in zone size reduces this to 9] mile radius is killed through a combination of wind, cryogenic flood, breathing cold air causing the water in your lungs to freeze into lots of tiny sharp ice crystals that will shred your alveoli like grapes on a grater, etc.

If the caster starts inside the inner or middle regions then they're dead, period. (Well, unless they manage to escape during the ~1 minute that it takes for the effect to go from 0 to hellstorm, perhaps by reverse summoning or tunneling really fast and deep, then sealing the tunnel behind them. And conceivably there's some bullshit S-ranker out there with sufficient bullshit to survive being in the heart of the storm because S-rankers are made of bullshit. Hazō has never heard of anyone with such an ability and can't imagine what it would be, but he can't completely rule it out because S-rankers are bullshit.)

If the caster starts in the outer zone then they have a chance of escaping if they run immediately and very quickly, and they have skywalkers or some other way to get off the ground so as to escape the LN2 flood, and they have a way to breathe air that's killing them via grapes-on-a-grater cold.

Given the above, a brief summary of the EM nuke scene looks like this: over the course of ~7 hours Akane turned ~17 cubic miles (yes, miles) of air into cryogenic liquid and threw it into the middle of a katabatic Mach-1 hyperhurricane that blasted it outwards across a circle with area of ~500 (EDIT: after the zone size reduction, 250) square miles, demolishing the landscape and killing every living thing in that area except herself and Hazō. Despite Hazō's best efforts to be far from habitation, the affected area was vastly larger than he could have anticipated and Akane almost certainly killed a bunch of Fire's civilian population. Best guess, somewhere in the 200-600 range, although the Gōketsu likely will never know exactly.

For the record, the players did very well in selecting security precautions. If you were less cautious and had done this anywhere near Leaf then Akane and Hazō would have died, Leaf's civilians would almost certainly have all died, and a good share of Leaf's ninja would have died.
 
Right. Voting is open, because I remembered to check the box.

EDIT: On balance, let's call this a Lore Update. Time is short.
 
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We were explicitly told when purchasing SSA that it would not apply toward infusion, and were not told otherwise on purchasing DoB. It comes across kind of... bad to go back on it like that.
Do you have references of this?

This would only apply to timeladdered down rune infusions? Since those are the only infusions longer than 1 hr.
Note the equals sign in the ">=": regular hour-long infusions count too. You'd have to be timeladdered up to avoid it.
Okay this is horrifically awful for the players. Can I suggest to the QMs that they not dump this on us 5 minutes to midnight? The rules regarding DoB and SSA have always been for research and not regular infusions. Changing this now is beyond unconsionable.

If you must do it for timeladdered down runes, fine, but normal runic infusions? Now? When we're about to fight Akatsuki with all of our plans relying on mass runic deployments? I can't believe this is up for discussion.
Yeah, my bad. We're not going to consider applying any DoB consequences for infusion until after the showdown at O'uzu, so this won't interfere with your plans at all.
 
PSA: Let's call it a Lore Update today and Thursday, voting closing next Saturday.

The cycle is too short and things are too important right now, so voting shouldn't close today and it should be an interlude tomorrow. Likewise, Wednesday is Christmas, so that should also be an interlude. Let's call that an interlude as well.

I'll leave voting open until the normal time next Saturday, so there will be lots of time.

Happy Holidays, all!
 
This assumes the radius of the storm scales linearly with the surface area of the AOE of the effect. We don't know that. It might scale sublinearly, or it might not scale at all and it's just a fixed size away from the surface of the AOE, or it could scale faster than linearly
The QMs seem to think it's sub-linear with diameter. Reduction from 50 to 30m AoE caused a drop from 12 miles to 9 miles of devastation.

So consider it a worst-case scenario.
 
We use the QM's model, since they're the ones writing the story, and extrapolate upwards to account for an EM Nuke with diameter an order of magnitude larger.
Okay, that model is something I think we all agree on. AOE activates, all air liquifies and reduces in volume by ~1000x, new air floods into the new vacuum, also liquifies. This drives winds at "however fast air flows into a vacuum from stp", which is roughly the speed of sound. The liquefied air floods outwards from the zone into the surrounding area, boiling away briefly before any given area of terrain is sufficiently frozen and then spreading further outward, eventually covering a area of many kilometers.

And finally, intense winds of some sort occur and likely do many things in a very energetic manner. Note that that is very vague.

We don't know the radius of the effect. Clearly, there is a lot of wind, and it can do a lot of things. A storm is a safe assumption. But how big of a storm? How does it scale?
  • You could argue its not meaningfully larger, because the far-field effects of the storm are not especially sensitive to the size of the center AOE, and instead the radius of the storm is effectively a fixed distance from the surface of the AOE driving it, a distance determined by the particular fluid properties of the atmosphere. In other words, the AOE of the storm gets maybe ~300m bigger.
  • You could argue the storm scales linearly with the cross-sectional and/or spherical surface area of the AOE, because it is sucking air downward from above and emitting liquified air from the sides, and the flow rate of these two directly affects the storm size. So the air passing through depends on the area available for air to flow through. So going from a 30m AOE to 300m, the storm gets ~100x bigger in... volume? Radius?
  • You could argue that it scales beyond linearly with the surface area, because there are some sort of limiting effects that are diminished as scale increases. For instance, viscous forces operate on the surface area between moving and nonmoving air. It is plausible that by increasing the size of the effect, you get a nonlinear increase in total flow rate because of square-cube scaling of the contact between inflows and surrounding air vs the volume of inflows.
  • You could argue it scaling with volume. Maybe it works in some unexpected manner. Maybe the liquefaction isn't instant or complete, and you get both greater inflows from larger surface area and greater magnitude of effect from more volume for the effect to occur in.

We don't know. We could take a good stab at it, I think, if we assume we got the effect exactly modeled correctly and knew how the heck to simulate complicated atmospheric phenomena, but we don't know.
 
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My comments on seals interacting with the Out were a mistake and will be retconned, sorry about that. Every sealing lineage has a different view on exactly what seals are and how they work. Kagome's lineage (which now includes Hazō) will tell you that chakra is like a sandbox, which can produce powerful effects but is ultimately limited to what the Sage wanted to be possible. By breaking out of the sandbox (analogy for player benefit, not something Kagome says: programming exploits), you can use tiny amounts of chakra to manipulate the raw magic of the universe directly. This can do things that ninjutsu can't (e.g. 5SB), but because you're working in a more powerful magic system, you can also cause catastrophic mistakes, up to but not necessarily including breaking holes Out of the universe.
This retcon has been processed. See changes below:

"No," Orochimaru said, filling a short metal cylinder with twigs. "Seals manipulate raw chakra as a useful substrate to perform various operations, but they do not use it as an energy source. It is the puncture into the Out operations conducted in the paraisolation layer which provides the 'energy' that powers a seal. You are aware of this."
Replace the Out mention with technobabble (Hazou doesn't recognize it, as Orochimaru wasn't trained by Kagome's discipline).

Hazō had invented two runes so far. The explosive rune had been drop-dead simple, just like the explosive seal had been. Just poke a hole into the Out out of the prison the Sage had named chakra, command up as much energy as you can, then let it all blast free. The math, the theory, designing the components had all been easy. When it came time to infuse the rune, he had been sure beyond sure that he knew what it would do.
Replace the Out mention with Kagome's idea that chakra is a restricted set of operations created by the Sage, which sealing (and thus runecrafting) bypasses.

Finally, he twisted his chakra into place, opening that gap into the Out and letting its energy flood into unlocking the raw power of the universe and forcing it, momentarily, to move according to the structure he had created.
Replace the Out mention with equivalent flavor-text.

"Every time the summoning technique is cast, it adds a little stitch to the connection between the Human Path and Seventh Path," Fukasaku said. "So the Animal Path tendrils aren't an issue, and it won't be for a long time. Sealing is like poking a hole in the fabric pinching the fabric up tight. That means a lot of things, but the big one is that if you hit one of the stitches that keeps the Seventh Path attached to the Human Path is nearby, you'll probably break it. Whereas if you hit one of the tendrils that's trying to drag the Seventh Path back to the Animal Path, the connection won't be broken – it'll just open up a larger hole for the next tendril to latch onto.

"Of course, a sealing failure would be a massive hole in the fabric, but even a regular infusion is a little one can stress it. And I bet that infusing one of those guys," Fukasaku said gesturing to the crater again, "would still be a pretty big hole really twist that fabric up. You saw how it was hovering and murmuring and glowing that eerie purple. That doesn't sound like a negligible flaw in reality to me."
Replace the "poking a hole" bit with a similar idea, though probably less bad.

Again, sorry for the confusion, this was my mistake. Let me know if I missed any spots!
 
  • You could argue that it scales beyond linearly with the surface area, because there are some sort of limiting effects that are diminished as scale increases. For instance, viscous forces operate on the surface area between moving and nonmoving air. It is plausible that by increasing the size of the effect, you get a nonlinear increase in total flow rate because of square-cube scaling of the contact between inflows and surrounding air vs the volume of inflows.
Ground clutter, particularly trees, has significant effects on low-altitude wind. Rule of thumb I heard from farm planning is a row of trees protects crops from wind damage to a horizontal distance of ten times their height. Wider pool of cryogenic liquid scouring the landscape flat would mean more clear space for 'frictionless' storm buildup.
Results might also be strongly dependent on contours and thermal conductivity of the local bedrock - how far the pool spreads, how fast it boils off, would change how much it's cooling the incoming air, thus the density of that air when it reaches the core, thus the mass of newly-liquified air being added to the pool.
 
Tell Oro message to include a Nara. Even if Shika himself would be too inconspicuous one of his clan will do. They can advise battle strategy. It should be a high-ranking Nara so they have forbidden lore knowledge, allowing them the wider picture of various consequences. And perhaps they will realize the assault is a bad idea and advise to cancel it.
 
Tell Oro message to include a Nara. Even if Shika himself would be too inconspicuous one of his clan will do. They can advise battle strategy. It should be a high-ranking Nara so they have forbidden lore knowledge, allowing them the wider picture of various consequences. And perhaps they will realize the assault is a bad idea and advise to cancel it.
We've got one already
 
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