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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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faflec said:
It's not the 6-pack squad we fought, but I find it unreasonable that Cannai does not know information that Cancurunchu does
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We were encountering larger packs than 4 on the regular, most of the described packs had 5 or more members except for 3 jounin.

It makes sense that raiding into their territory would mean they have more fighters on hand.
 
Sir Stompy said:
  • Hazou had a few thoughts to share after the raid
    • The Dogs' great strengths are their numbers, their coordination their stamina, and their tracking abilities.
    • Based on the interrogation, the Leopards seem to be traveling in "packs" of 5 or more combatants.
    • A favorable strategy might be to harry their "packs" in groups too large for them to fight (20 members?), and corner them when they have to defend their cubs, or they're too tired to keep running.
      • Not that Hazou knows Dog's strengths better than Cannai does, of course.
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@faflec how does this look now? Kei sanity check is in there too
 
Looks like Trad Explosive Rune, Storm Rune and Anti-Paper Rune are currently winning the [prep day] vote. So I will edit those in. I plan to rerun the tally before I go to bed around 11pm Eastern

Also @MMKII has a alternative name for Trad Explosive Rune, since that was mostly a joke, I will use their name instead.
 
Sir Stompy said:
@MMKII @Kyreneryk

Might want to copy paste the Cannai section again. Or better yet, just plan to do that tonight when I finalize things.
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Yeah, I'll do that.

Sir Stompy said:
Looks like Trad Explosive Rune, Storm Rune and Anti-Paper Rune are currently winning the [prep day] vote. So I will edit those in. I plan to rerun the tally before I go to bed around 11pm Eastern

Also @MMKII has a alternative name for Trad Explosive Rune, since that was mostly a joke, I will use their name instead.
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I admit that I fucking laughed when I saw it but the name itself is terrible :p
 
faflec said:
[X] Action Plan: An Attempt to Make Hazou Know Things

I'm somewhat in favor of spending more time on research instead of prep days (though I would still want prep on the faux-cannibal rune).

Side note: @MMKII Why spend prep days on the Kagome-sensei Satisfying Explosive Rune and the Explosiver Rune? The former sounds like "strongest explosive we can do" and the other is just "somewhat stronger explosive"...
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I'm hedging against the QMs not liking the generality or lax amounts of specificity in the first one. The second is very explicit to balance this out.
 
Brain mush. @MMKII and @Sir Stompy , I've voted for y'all. You're both level headed and I agree with your takes most of the time. Unless you're having Hazou be cruel to Uplift Family, assume whatever changes you may make have my approval.

If you're having Hazou be mean to the Hagoromo, assume it has my enthusiastic approval.
 
Kyreneryk said:
Hmm. Thinking about it, I guess I could just ...

[X] Action Plan: Research, Reassess
Word Count: 271
Intended Duration: 6 days subjective, 5 calendar.
  • Sanity check with Kei
  • Move locations again when it's time. Clean up after yourself. Ask Kei if it's time to leave Aisu Bay.
  • Rune Research:
  • Cannai
  • Respectfully, if he sends another raiding party, Hazō thinks a larger force is warranted. We never had even a 2:1 advantage of numbers.
    • The Dogs' great strengths are their numbers, their coordination, their stamina, and their tracking abilities.
    • Based on the interrogation, the Leopards seem to be travelling in "packs" of 5 or so combatants.
    • A favourable strategy might be to harry their "packs" in groups too large for them to fight (20 members?), and corner them when they have to defend their cubs, or they're too tired to keep running.
      • Not that Hazō knows Dog's strengths better than Cannai does, of course.
  • Ask Cannai if he knows a Dog that might be interested in helping Hazō develop Roki into something that can be used against quadrupeds.
    • If so, ask him to introduce us, try to make a good impression
    • Work on this during SSA rest days.
    • Do your best to incorporate Force Blades into the expanded taijutsu style
  • Misc
    • Give Noburi a copy of MS7; ask him if he thinks there are medical uses.
    • Test if a HOWR makes a 5SB expire more quickly.
    • Test if a campfire will trigger LR seal set to receive below-red.

This is exactly Sir Stompy's plan (plus some QoL and WC edits), but instead of doing two/three cycles with three tracks, we do one cycle with two tracks and spend the rest of the time on prep days. With PS being raised to 20, full prep will now mean three prep days and one infusion day, so four days on three tracks gives us twelve days for difficulty checks. (Like Sir Stompy, I'd be incorporating the top three prep days people vote on in addition to the nine carried over from last plan.)

The rationale for this is as follows:
  • It's possible (though unlikely) that we'll finish Air Leadening or Icarus in one cycle, in which case we'll want to have the prep days done so we know what to research next in that slot.
  • It's somewhat more likely that, looking at the rolls, we might decide that one of those runes could go in a non-SSA slot. The bonus from SSA is only slightly more than the bonus from 3 days of prep, so if we'd be happy no-prepping them, we would likely also be happy full-prep no-SSA-ing them. However, that's a decision we would want to make after knowing what else might go in the SSA slot, hence this plan.
  • Whether or not this plan is actually better, I think it should exist so people who want this kind of approach can vote for it instead of having to overcome the barrier of making a plan themselves.
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Plan updated to include the Kei sanity check, the new Cannai section, and the currently leading prep days.

faflec said:
I'm somewhat in favor of spending more time on research instead of prep days (though I would still want prep on the faux-cannibal rune).
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If you want to get a specific prep day done, can I interest you in voting for either of the two plans that do the full twelve prep days this update? As I said above, MMKII's plan sacrifices four prep days for runes that are IMO of questionable utility (Capacitor Rune has no plausible candidate runes which veterancy seems likely to bring into range) while we have a significant but not overwhelming (i.e. we won't be stuck making the same decision forever) prep day backlog.
 
Kyreneryk said:
(Capacitor Rune has no plausible candidate runes which veterancy seems likely to bring into range)
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HOWS runs off of environmental chakra and this stores environmental chakra. Either staple a bunch of capacitors to a HOWS Rune or research a version that combines both in the functionality.

Either we do something like that, or we create a better HOWS variant wholecloth. That also sounds like a good idea to me so I'll probably add the suped up HOWS into the prep day pile when I edit the plan. (E: I also keep forgetting that faflec's "cannibal rune" thing is just an explosive rune that activates on sight. That might be worth a shot too if Oro has a seal that does that, but I'm slightly skeptical.)

In general, I think there's a bit of Pascal's Mugging going on when we assess which of these to try out. I disagree that a small chance of massive +EV is worth focusing on if the small chance is below a certain lower bound. We shouldn't be trying to get the low hanging fruit lottery here, we should identify a few key ideas, figure out research paths towards them, and then sit down and do the research. If only 2-3 of those ideas survive, then that's good enough.

We haven't really been doing that. As far as I can tell we're just shoving stuff into the prep day section on plans and hoping that the QMs tell us a cool idea is within Hazou's grasp. This approach does not seem to be working out (we have nothing to show for this but Runic Air Domes), so I think its time to pivot.
 
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MMKII said:
HOWS runs off of environmental chakra and this stores environmental chakra. Either staple a bunch of capacitors to a HOWS Rune or research a version that combines both in the functionality.

Either we do something like that, or we create a better HOWS variant wholecloth. That also sounds like a good idea to me so I'll probably add the suped up HOWS into the prep day pile when I edit the plan.

In general, I think there's a bit of Pascal's Mugging going on when we assess which of these to try out. I disagree that a small chance of massive +EV is worth focusing on if the small chance is below a certain lower bound. We shouldn't be trying to get the low hanging fruit lottery here, we should identify a few key ideas, figure out research paths towards them, and then sit down and do the research. If only 2-3 of those ideas survive, then that's good enough.

We haven't really been doing that. As far as I can tell we're just shoving stuff into the prep day section on plans and hoping that the QMs tell us a cool idea is within Hazou's grasp. This approach does not seem to be working out (we have nothing to show for this but Runic Air Domes), so I think its time to pivot.
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I understand the reasoning, and I admit, I hadn't come across that idea before.

Hmm. I think in general I agree with you - we need to start actually researching runes. The issue I have with doing that this cycle is that we currently have not just a prep day queue but a prep day backlog, in that we have prep days that made it into a winning plan but didn't get prepped. In combination with that, I think we are starting to run dry on ideas for prep days, such that we currently only have maybe 2 updates' worth of plausible candidates. This is the basis of my plan; it aims to get rid of that backlog and cut down our queue to something more reasonable, after which we could sink more time into research. It's why it's only one cycle.

The other reason I'm not too concerned about non-SSA-track runes right now is that I don't think of our non-SSA tracks as a limited resource. Our research is for the foreseeable future is gated behind our available SSA tracks, because we need them for at least the first cycle on every plausibly-nontrivial rune. Given that runes easy enough to be non-SSA-tracked are likely also fairly low complexity, and that we have three non-SSA tracks to two SSA tracks, I think it makes more sense to get our remaining prep days done first and then pivot to researching everything we can get our hands on in those tracks.
 
RandomOTP said:
Brain mush. @MMKII and @Sir Stompy , I've voted for y'all. You're both level headed and I agree with your takes most of the time. Unless you're having Hazou be cruel to Uplift Family, assume whatever changes you may make have my approval.

If you're having Hazou be mean to the Hagoromo, assume it has my enthusiastic approval.
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Sorry to bother you while your brain is mush, but could I interest you in voting for my plan ([] Action Plan: Research, Reassess)? It's exactly the same as Sir Stompy's and MMKII's except in the sealing research section (and, resultingly, that it's only one cycle instead of two), where it focuses on getting our prep days done ASAP without sacrificing SSA research time.

(Aware that I'm not a regular in this quest, so understand if you'd prefer not to vote for a plan by someone you don't know!)
 
MMKII said:
I'm willing to change a rune to this if folks are in support of it. Probably swap out the capacitor rune.

I'm not really keen on voting in a big pile of prep days but I can maybe add some more options in there. I don't really think some of the more overpowered or complex options (like the thing that collects summoners reverse summoning?) are going to get some focus though. I just don't see a bunch of that being viable if some of the more middling stuff we're attempting difficulty checks on is coming back as "Hazou thinks its impossible fam"
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[X] Action Plan: An Attempt to Make Hazou Know Things

Not to bribe for that change, just in appreciation of consideration.
 
Kyreneryk said:
I understand the reasoning, and I admit, I hadn't come across that idea before.

Hmm. I think in general I agree with you - we need to start actually researching runes. The issue I have with doing that this cycle is that we currently have not just a prep day queue but a prep day backlog, in that we have prep days that made it into a winning plan but didn't get prepped. In combination with that, I think we are starting to run dry on ideas for prep days, such that we currently only have maybe 2 updates' worth of plausible candidates. This is the basis of my plan; it aims to get rid of that backlog and cut down our queue to something more reasonable, after which we could sink more time into research. It's why it's only one cycle.

The other reason I'm not too concerned about non-SSA-track runes right now is that I don't think of our non-SSA tracks as a limited resource. Our research is for the foreseeable future is gated behind our available SSA tracks, because we need them for at least the first cycle on every plausibly-nontrivial rune. Given that runes easy enough to be non-SSA-tracked are likely also fairly low complexity, and that we have three non-SSA tracks to two SSA tracks, I think it makes more sense to get our remaining prep days done first and then pivot to researching everything we can get our hands on in those tracks.
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In general I'm very sympathetic to the "These got voted in but not done" point, since that's happened quite a lot over the years.

My point is that I am not seeing the value in doing all of these prep days right now if you look at what information we're getting back. I am incredibly suspect that these are accurate, and the QMs have gone on record saying that the results of these difficulty checks are not one to one with the actual difficulty. Hazou has little to no experience with runecrafting at the moment, and it's a newly rediscovered discipline, so he does not have the capacity to accurately state what he knows and doesn't know how to accomplish beyond a vague inkling.

There are two things we can do to fix the "Prep days are sketchy info" problem:
  • Do more research
    • "Hazou has little experience with runecrafting, thus his asssessments are inaccurate" imples that if we get more experience his assessments will potentially be more accurate (possibly limited to areas where he does have experience, i.e. veterancy)
  • Get a bigger Primordial Sealing number

So I think we should just do more of the first (and see about the second point) at the moment.

If you look at the results on the prep day difficulty checks, the pattern of what is easy and what is ??? is unpredictable. For instance, Hazou can currently make a magic rock that creates more time in its area of effect, but he thinks that warping space to concentrate beams of light in a particular direction is beyond his capabilities.

Something ain't squaring there to me, so I'd prefer we hold off on spamming these so much until the kid has a better idea of whats what. I understand the argument for the alternative, I just note that despite the logic there, it hasn't been producing strong results for us.
 
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MMKII said:
My point is that I am not seeing the value in doing all of these prep days right now if you look at what information we're getting back. I am incredibly suspect that these are accurate, and the QMs have gone on record saying that the results of these difficulty checks are not one to one with the actual difficulty. Hazou has little to no experience with runecrafting at the moment, and it's a newly rediscovered discipline, so he does not have the capacity to accurately state what he knows and doesn't know how to accomplish beyond a vague inkling.

There are two things we can do to fix the "Prep days are sketchy info" problem:
  • Do more research
    • "Hazou has little experience with runecrafting, thus his asssessments are inaccurate" imples that if we get more experience his assessments will potentially be more accurate (possibly limited to areas where he does have experience, i.e. veterancy)
  • Get a bigger Primordial Sealing number

So I think we should just do more of the first (and see about the second point) at the moment.
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I think this may be the crux of the difference in our viewpoints, actually. I don't think that we're at all likely to get better difficulty assessments before we need to have our anti-Akatsuki runes ready, whether we do a lot of extra runes or not, so I don't think we should take that into account as a determiner of our research. Therefore, until we bump up PS more, for safety reasons we're basically stuck researching 'well within' runes with anything 'could maybe' requiring a dedicated runic chain for veterancy before we can think of touching it. As a result, I think it's important to get as many 'well within' candidates as possible, as well as as many 'could maybe' candidates as possible so we have the best possible idea of which runes to sink those time-consuming veterancy chains into, and so I view taking the time to exhaust our current supply of prep days before diving into research as a relatively small cost.

@T_of_A, @Left-Hand Mutant, @Earwing : as people currently voting only for my plan, can I suggest that you also vote for Sir Stompy's plan? Currently, MMKII's plan is in the lead; Sir Stompy's sits somewhere in the middle of our two plans, so I expect you to prefer it over MMKII's.
 
faflec said:
@Sir Stompy @Kyreneryk @MMKII I'm a bit confused about the Cannai criticism in your plans and also possibly concerned: Cannai knows that Hazou's addition was meant to make up for fewer numbers, and his original plan (see the combat spoilers) was to delay until more Dogs showed up.
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I don't understand how this makes the concern less significant. The fundamental issue that it wasn't realistic for them to expect to fight groups of this size without casualties holds even if this was an intentional judgement.

Plus, it would be particularly foolish for Hazō to be among those casualties, given his skills are invention and pretending not to be a social spec, rather than combat.
 
Left-Hand Mutant said:
[X] Kyreneryk


Any planmakers with spare wordcount, please tell hazou to compare his measurements with the strings from Gaku.
We're so close.
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Done. Also, thanks.
Kyreneryk said:
  • Misc
    • Give Noburi a copy of MS7; ask him if he thinks there are medical uses.
    • Test if a HOWR makes a 5SB expire more quickly.
    • Test if a campfire will trigger LR seal set to receive below-red.
    • Compare Hazō's sun measurements with Gaku's.
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Alright, I need to get up early tomorrow, so I'm signing off. I'll check the thread early tomorrow morning and respond to anything I have time to, but after that I'm likely going to be unavailable until voting closes. (Not that it especially matters, since my plan looks very unlikely to win, but you never know, there might be a sudden outpouring of support for it :).)
 
@Sir Stompy, merged your plan with @RandomOTP's and optimized the wording to be sub-300. Here you go:
Word Count: 297
Intended Duration: 12 days subjective, 10 calendar.
  • Leave Aisu Bay when Kei judges it's time.
  • Research: Full-prep everything. Re-roll only for safety, never for progress.
    • SSA Track 1: Air-Leadening Rune.
    • SSA Track 2: Icarus Rune.
    • Non-SSA Track: Storage Rune (proceed only if "...well within...").
  • Difficulty checks:
  • Read notes instead of FOOMing with extra blocks.
  • Spend time with Snowflake on a Skytower, under nighttime sky. Discuss:
    • The stresses of the mission and looming deadlines. Rusting skills.
    • Missing our family. We're glad she's here, with us.
    • How we're glad to know her and be known by her. She's important, and deserves to hear that.
      • After losing Akane, we've realized we need to say that more. We don't want to take anyone for granted.
  • Sanity-check with Kei:
    • Cannai:
      • Discuss the raid. Tentative suggestion (Cannai knows Dog's strengths best, obviously)
        • The Dogs' great strengths are numbers, coordination, stamina, and tracking.
        • Based on the interrogation, Leopards travel in "packs" of 5+ combatants.
        • Potential favourable strategy: harry their "packs" in groups too large to fight (20 Dogs?), cornering them when they have to defend their cubs or get too tired to run.
      • Are there any Dogs that'd be inclined to help us develop Roki into something that'd be useful against quadrupeds?
        • Would Cannai introduce us?
        • If yes:
          • Meet the Dog on a good day (without Consequences). Aim to make a good impression.
          • Work on this during SSA-rest days.
          • Incorporate Force Blades into the new taijutsu style.
    • Misc:
      • Give Noburi a copy of MS7. Any medical applications?
      • Test whether a HOWR makes a 5SB expire faster.
      • Test whether a campfire will trigger LR seal set to receive below-red.
      • Compare Hazō's sun measurements with Gaku's.
[X] Action Plan: That's Right Kids, More Rune Research

@MMKII, I petition for you to include that scene as well. Below is a rewritten version of your plan too. (Note that "Pokéspacer" is just my "the Pocket-Space Rune" which I've renamed to minimize word count.)
Word count: 299
Intended Duration: 12 days subjective, 10 calendar.
  • Leave Aisu Bay when Kei judges it's time.
  • Research: Full-prep everything. Re-roll for safety, never for progress.
  • Other tracks on difficulty checks (in order), then sealing notes:
  • Spend time with Snowflake on a Skytower, under nighttime sky. Discuss:
    • Stresses of the mission and looming deadlines. Rusting skills.
    • Missing our family. We're glad she's here, with us.
    • How we're glad to know her and be known by her. She's important, and deserves to hear that.
      • After losing Akane, we've realized we need to say that more. We don't want to take anyone for granted.
  • Sanity-check with Kei:
    • Cannai:
      • Respectfully, for the next raid, a larger force seems warranted. We've never had even a 2:1 numbers advantage.
      • Tentative suggestion (Cannai knows Dog's strengths best, obviously):
        • The Dogs' great strengths are numbers, coordination, stamina, and tracking.
        • Based on the interrogation, Leopards travel in "packs" of 5+ combatants.
        • Potential favourable strategy: harry their "packs" in groups too large to fight (20 Dogs?), cornering them when they have to defend their cubs or get too tired to run.
      • Are there any Dogs that'd be inclined to help us develop Roki into something that'd be useful against quadrupeds?
        • Would Cannai introduce us?
        • If yes: Meet the dog. Aim to make a good impression.
          • Work on this during SSA-rest days.
          • Incorporate Force Blades into the new taijutsu style.
    • Misc:
      • Give Noburi a copy of MS7. Any medical applications?
      • Test whether a HOWR makes a 5SB expire faster.
      • Test whether a campfire will trigger LR seal set to receive below-red.
 
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