They are at best proto-Persia a bronze age disunited civilization with serious fracture lines between the nomad-derived martial elite and the rest of society. One should not overestimate either their administrative reach or stability in the face of crises.
Paths of Civilization
- Thread starter Academia Nut
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They are at best proto-Persia a bronze age disunited civilization with serious fracture lines between the nomad-derived martial elite and the rest of society. One should not overestimate either their administrative reach or stability in the face of crises.
- Location
- Mists of Albion
And we should not underestimate them, the Thunder Speakers did that, yet every time they rose up in any way they were smashed, many of us and the nobles in universe kept on saying that the Thunder Speaker Empire would collapse soon enough, yet it's still going, what's more, it's getting stronger and actively consolidating.
Now they have Bronze weapons, they are spreading out further and further towards us, they are managing their vassals well and annexing them, but you still continue to underestimate them.
Never underestimate an enemy, especially one who has surprised you multiple times before
They are consolidating now... soon they will break apart again as they overreach at a bad time. It is the nature of empires and the mentality that spawns them.
And honestly they have yet to surprise me.
- Location
- Australia
This is kind of incorrect. AN said they have dominated half a dozen city states, which really isn't that impressive. The only "kingdoms" they dominated were the Thunder Speakers and the Xohyssiri.
They only have enough bronze to equip their elites, whereas we have enough iron that everyone will be equipped with the stuff. That iron is so common means we also have significantly better chariots than them too.
Their population isn't as good at agriculture as us and they most certainly don't double as part-time warriors like our people do. Most importantly, their population is spread out, so it'll be far more difficult for them to leverage that population to supply their armies at such long distance.
We would be hell to attack. They only have two routes to attack us from: the badlands, which is mostly vast stretches of barren, hard-to-traverse terrain; and the east, which is all hills. We have the natural terrain advantage, we have the home ground advantage, and our iron tools let us build fortifications better than anyone else bar the Xohyssiri
If we get really desperate, we can kick the defensive war or we can call in reinforcements from our Marches, which would be easier for us to do than it is for the Thunder Horse to call for their own reinforcements considering the distances involved. This is assuming their "reinforcements" won't turn around and attack the Thunder Horse themselves after finding out the main Thunder Horse forces have taken such a mauling that they require assistance.
So no, refusing to launch a preemptive attack is not suicide. It's keeping to our moral code and allowing our defensive supremacy to win the day. If a nomad horde big enough to depopulate 1000 km worth of step led by two heroes and getting two crits couldn't defeat us, then the Thunder Horse certainly wouldn't be able to, especially not now that we have iron and actually defensible terrain.
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- Location
- Mists of Albion
We said they would break apart turns ago, most people in universe and in the thread predicted it. Yet thy haven't, again and again they have faced down crisis' you say they should fall apart from.
They squashed and are absorbing the Thunder Speakers.
They pacified the Swamp Peoples further south.
They haven't fallen into massive civil war and strife either.
They have only gone from a rocky start that seemed doomed to fail into a regional superpower.
That's pretty god damn surprising to me
What crises have they overcome? All we have is third hand information coming to us through the TS, which is to say the fools who were desperate to get out from under their overlords and paid a great price for mistiming it.
BungieONI
Seven gremlins in a trench coat
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Aside from all of that in addition sending a preemptive attack is a good way to start a war cycle like what we saw in the Lowlands up until recently.
If the HK are attacked and then ask us for help then I am willing to consider helping them. But it has to be that they were attacked and are defending themselves and that they asked for help. If they are the aggressor and then ask for help, actually helping them is just encouraging bad behavior and setting up a border with an aggressive asshole civ who will come to bite us in the long run when their greed makes them attack us. As to them asking for help, if they don't I don't feel much need to help them and we won't even be able to with our malus to causus beli from symphony. If they do we must carefully consider if it is actually worth it to based on the binary metric I just outlined and on how powerful the Thunder Horse are looking.
If the TH hold the advantage helping the HK is good. If not then there is no real point to wasting the resources.
You have to remember that these guys are only six city states maybe a few more and that it is with E: all of their vassals (The Minors, the Xoh, the undamaged Thunder Speakers) that they equaled us in numbers if we teamed up with the HK several turns of population growth ago. When the War of The Highlanders vs Thunder Horse starts each side will have these advantages and disadvantages.
Thunder Horse:
Advantages
-Bronze weapons on their elites
-Nomad traits
-With their cities and the Lowland Minors they have a good sized population. Not equal to us plus the HK, and that number was from a while ago when we were much closer to 100k than 300k anyway. Probably equal to the HK as of right now plus the Minors.
Disadvantages
-They have to sink their warriors into holding one of their vassals hostage
-Their government system is inherently unstable and if stressed to far will snap apart
-It's a long way to the HK. Not as long as to us but still long so attrition is a thing and they will have difficulty doing permanent damage
-Their other major vassal the Xohyssiri is a trade hub and can't devote war power unless the HK get right up close due to resource issues (Having to maintain True City and Golden Age etc)
Highlanders:
Advantages
-Hills to retreat to and experience in hill fighting
-A good sized population probably equal to the Thunder Horse
-Time spent consolidating and forting up.
Disadvantages
-A unstable government system prone to succession civil wars when in stressful times, as well as occasionally rebellious provinces
-An inability to reach all the way to the Thunder Horse cities to cause permanent damage
Underestimating an enemy is a horrible hubris that's killed empires. But fearing an enemy like you are is even worse. Do not fear your enemy, no matter how powerful, because it causes rash decisions like fighting before you must, and blinds you from considering all of your options likely blinding you to a more damaging strike.
When Frank Herbert wrote "Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death that brings total obliteration." he was very very right.
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- Location
- Australia
They've fallen into civil war several times. The Thunder Speakers are the first to come to mind and before then they had to spend multiple generations keeping their conquests quiet.
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- Location
- Mists of Albion
Okay so @Andres110
You've mentioned the Thunder Speakers and ex-Dead Priests as their only Vassals, however you've forgotten about the Swamp peoples.
Andres you talked about how common Bronze was in their army. Aka the lack of it.
Within a few turns, which is around when they'll come for us, they will have equipped most of their army with Bronze and narrowed the gap somewhat.
Remember what makes Iron awesome is that it's cheaper, not necessarily better than Bronze.
You made some decent points about the fact they aren't as good at agriculture and not all their people are part time soldiers, however they still have massive armies, also if they get the Lowlands, it won't matter, the Lowlands are ridiculously fertile, that means a major population boost, alongside the fact that when they fully annex the Xohyssiri they will gain access to enough agricultural methods to only boost that advantage to a crushing degree.
You also talk about how hard we would be to attack, which is quite correct, however it didn't save us from the Nomad Hordes, and it didn't save the Metal Workers either. I'm not confident that we could fight off an attack on our lonesome if the Thunder Speaker Empire gains control of more of the Lowlands.
You then talk about how the reinforcement armies of the Thunder Horse Empire might turn on them if they see the ma main Imperial armies not battered by a war with the Ymaryn.
This is part of why I want to strike them sooner, annexation methods they're taking will reduce the chance of a vassal army trying this and will mean they are less likely to collapse if they try to conquer us.
We can't let them have enough time to consolidate, otherwise they can bring their more loyal vassals against us.
That's not a full civil war, that's smacking the kids over the head if they get too gobby.
You've mentioned the Thunder Speakers and ex-Dead Priests as their only Vassals, however you've forgotten about the Swamp peoples.
Andres you talked about how common Bronze was in their army. Aka the lack of it.
Within a few turns, which is around when they'll come for us, they will have equipped most of their army with Bronze and narrowed the gap somewhat.
Remember what makes Iron awesome is that it's cheaper, not necessarily better than Bronze.
You made some decent points about the fact they aren't as good at agriculture and not all their people are part time soldiers, however they still have massive armies, also if they get the Lowlands, it won't matter, the Lowlands are ridiculously fertile, that means a major population boost, alongside the fact that when they fully annex the Xohyssiri they will gain access to enough agricultural methods to only boost that advantage to a crushing degree.
You also talk about how hard we would be to attack, which is quite correct, however it didn't save us from the Nomad Hordes, and it didn't save the Metal Workers either. I'm not confident that we could fight off an attack on our lonesome if the Thunder Speaker Empire gains control of more of the Lowlands.
You then talk about how the reinforcement armies of the Thunder Horse Empire might turn on them if they see the ma main Imperial armies not battered by a war with the Ymaryn.
This is part of why I want to strike them sooner, annexation methods they're taking will reduce the chance of a vassal army trying this and will mean they are less likely to collapse if they try to conquer us.
We can't let them have enough time to consolidate, otherwise they can bring their more loyal vassals against us.
I'm saying that. If the Highlanders ask for help we should give it to them, saving a sorta ally and stopping us from being trampled latter on. The fact is that the Thunder Horse Empire could become the new Northern Nomads if we aren't careful, constantly attacking, raiding and trying to destroy us, except this time they would be a lot more organised and a lot more advanced
It is caution not fear. To evaluate an enemy and treat them with respect is the first rule of not becoming a cocky shit
There's been two rebellions, both of which were dealt with quickly, like, within a single turn.
That's not a full civil war, that's smacking the kids over the head if they get too gobby.
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- Location
- Mists of Albion
There were several people I had to reply too and several lines of argument I had to counter, it's just really difficult to do the formatting sometimes
Do you know how I could fix the layout?
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- Location
- Australia
Yeah, I get what you mean. I myself have trouble with it sometimes.There were several people I had to reply too and several lines of argument I had to counter, it's just really difficult to do the formatting sometimes
Do you know how I could fix the layout?
As for the layout, I recommend doing these two things:
1. Limit yourself to taking one quote per post. In the case of my advantage list post, don't quote every point, quote the entire post.
2. Restructure your own points so it's all one big argument.
For example, if I say this:
Do not do this:
Do this:
Or this:
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- Location
- Mists of Albion
Bookmarked
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BungieONI
Seven gremlins in a trench coat
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Well I apologize in advance for sounding like a dick if I do but it looks like fear to me from where I am sitting. I mean no offense when I say that but I am concerned you are not thinking this completely through. So maybe go back and rethink some of your old points and try to find old assumptions that are still kicking around?
As of right now I'll restate more clearly what advantages I think they have, because I kinda fucked up explaining my point about population sizes. derp.
Right now we have a population between 300k and 400k. This is solidly the individual largest population in the region. No one else has the agriculture to support such a population in the land area that we do. The HK have a probable population greater than 100k and probably approaching 200k due to land area and gradual agricultural tech ups. The Thunder Horse in their cities probably have 80 to 100k. I'd say 100k+ is a very strong bet. The Lowland Minors have been stated to hover around 80 to 100k most times. The Xoh have a pop greater than 100k, but probably not very much higher due to land restriction. The Thunder Speaker probably have a pop greater than 80k but with the recent things we don't really have a good way to estimate.
So advantages and disadvantages for HK vs TH Rumble.
Thunder Horse:
Advantages
-Bronze weapons on their elites
-Nomad traits
-With their cities and the Lowland Minors they have a good sized population. Probably equal to the HK
Disadvantages
-They have to sink their warriors into holding one of their vassals hostage
-Their government system is inherently unstable and if stressed too far will snap apart
-It's a long way to the HK. Not as long as to us but still long so attrition is a thing and they will have difficulty doing permanent damage
-Their other major vassal the Xohyssiri is a trade hub and can't devote war power unless the HK get right up close due to resource and distance issues (Having to maintain True City and Golden Age etc)
Highlanders:
Advantages
-Hills to retreat to and experience in hill fighting
-A good sized population probably equal to the Thunder Horse
-Time spent consolidating and forting up.
Disadvantages
-A unstable government system prone to succession civil wars when in stressful times, as well as occasionally rebellious provinces
-An inability to reach all the way to the Thunder Horse cities to cause permanent damage
As to the fight between us and them if they crunch up the HK and leave that kingdom weakened and then push onwards to us which they are quite likely to considering their traits and the probable successful war high to morale.
Thunder Horse:
Advantages
-Bronze weapons on their elites and probably most of their warriors. These are better quality one on one with iron.
-With their cities and the Lowland Minors they have a good sized population. They will have probably finished absorbing the Thunder Speakers by now but will still be nowhere near equal to us and said population was weakened by fighting the HK into a bloody whimpering paste.
Disadvantages
-Their government system is inherently unstable and if stressed too far will snap apart
-It's a long way to us. So attrition is a very major thing and they will have difficulty doing permanent damage
-Their other major vassal the Xohyssiri is a trade hub and can't devote war power to fighting us, and we actually have good relations with the Xoh anyway.
Us:
Advantages
-Iron. This lets us fort up and have ubiquitous good quality weapons for all of our warriors
-We have a truly massive population that is only growing
-The Ymaryn have a population of digital beings in the long term drivers seat who can see the gaps to shoot for
-Massive defensive bonuses. The best out of any civ we know of except maybe the Xoh.
-We know how to deal with Nomads and people who act like Nomads
-A kicked war if we absolutely must. We don't want to rely on this
Disadvantages
-Inability for us to permanently damage them
-It can take a little time to fully fort up for us since that process involves old growth forests
-We have a rather frequent and distracting Nomad problem and the Hathatyn may be getting uppity enough to actually be a problem
As you can see they have the means to hurt, but not kill us.
There were several people I had to reply too and several lines of argument I had to counter, it's just really difficult to do the formatting sometimes
Yeah Andre's advice is good in this regard. Maybe clean up the three posts a bit and consolidate them into one big post and that should be fine. *gives hugs*
We've all been there before.
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- Location
- Australia
I'll limit myself to answering this because it's the easiest to answer and I'd rather this discussion didn't go on forever, at least on my end.
First, the nomad hordes. It was a massive nomad horde, they had two heroes, and they got two crits. Those two crits allowed them to do a grand total of 2 Econ damage to us while the majority of their forces were annihilated on the open plains. Emphasis on open plains.
Second, the Metal Workers. The defensive terrain didn't save the Metal Workers, but they have a tiny population compared to us. They're a mountainous people and they don't have our agricultural tech. It's no surprise that they lost, even with their defensive terrain. Defensive terrain alone won't let us defeat the Thunder Horse, but we have a lot more going for us than just that.
"Distracting".
- Location
- Mists of Albion
I see where you are coming from mate, but I don't think you quite understand my fear, if the Thunder Horse Empire get a firm hold of the Lowlands, the most baseline fertile land we've ever seen, they will be able to surpass our population very quickly, especially with access to all those Lowland minors.
And the sad part is we will only be able to sit there and watch as they grow stronger and stronger in the Lowlands, we will not be able to trigger an offensive war on our own, and that means the Thunder Horse get to sit there, on the most fertile soil, consolidating and preparing to overrun us.
If we get a chance to join the Highlanders in maintaining the status quo (a status quo where we can just chill in our hills without having to worry about big Not!Persian empires) I'm all for jumping in if they ask.
That Nomad Horde was far smaller than our own army, managing to kill multiple warriors for each of their own they lost.
The Thunder Horse Empire can't pull of the same, but they are much more militaristic and violent. Give them the Lowlands and they'll have the population to back up their aggression against anyone, even us.
Also could someone please make a Negaverse Omake for the Metal Horse, I just want to see the reaction of those bastards who raped and reaved our peaceful lands when their raiding forces got wrecked by our two periphery states (and also their freak out at our Iron weapons and our creation of West Wall)
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It is odd that you are implicitly assuming the TH, by far the most distant actor in our little corner of the world has the administrative reach to hold the entirety of the lowlands.
Ghostdevil
The Devil of Ghosts
- Location
- United States
I don't think WE have the admin to hold it all, let alone anyone else.
- Location
- Mists of Albion
They've stretched their hand halfway across the Lowlands already, and we don't even know how far East they stretch.
Considering they could station Thunder Speaker troops too far East for them to rebel properly, they are probably capable of eating the Lowlands and maintaining it to some degree
Ghostdevil
The Devil of Ghosts
- Location
- United States
That doesn't mean anything though...
They could put those troops in the middle of their land and it'd be to far east to rebel properly... Hell they could put it on the western part, but still out of Thunder Speaker land and it would make it hard to rebel properly.
BungieONI
Seven gremlins in a trench coat
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Your first two points are only valid if they take a breather after fighting the HK and have successfully beat the HK into a pulp. I find it unlikely but possible that they may beat the HK into that pulp, either by actually beating them or by just hitting them so hard the HK self immolate through a succession war. I fully agree that they will surpass us in population if, and that's a big if, they can take and hold a majority of the Lowlands. It's actually one of my reasons for pushing so hard on expanding east and then south.
For them taking a breather I rate as possible since they are not idiots with a full Attack Attack Attack mentality, see their attempts to consolidate after eating the TS and Xoh.
Like I've also said I'm cool with joining the HK in beating up the TH as long as certain criteria are met.
Let's look at how it can turn out actually.
If the TH beat the everloving snot out of the HK and are in a good position. And the TH have decided to consolidate in the east Lowlands around what they can effectively admin.
I see an opening to expand south by absorbing the remnants of the HK and then pushing down the West Bank of the West river. We'd have to fort up as we went but it'd allow us to fully seal up the Badlands Gate through defensive depth before the TH sort themselves. We can also drop the East Wallers March while doing this.
If the TH do not beat the snot out of the HK and both fighters are bloodied and the TH decide to consolidate over their lesser gains. We essentially have status quo but round two is probably going to end with the TH winning over the HK. Kinda up in the air but it means we probably won't be seeing TH on our doorstep for a while.
If the TH beat the everloving snot out of the HK and are in a good position. And the TH have decided to rush us.
I see a need to bunker down and beat the everloving snot out of their attacking force. We can do it but it will hurt and make us bleed. However, the rashness of this action on the TH's part will cause them to over extend and break somewhere.
The TH are probably going to start facing quickly worsening admin difficulties, if they aren't already, which I suspect they are when looking at the Thunder Speaker rebellion. At best I think they can hold about halfway to that dashed pink border on the map solidly. A big chunk of land but still difficult to leverage in our direction.
The Xoh seem to be stable for now, so I figure that they will take at least five plus turns to fully absorb not counting the turns spent fighting the HK.
That dashed pink line that is associated with the Thunder Horse is a punch range, how far they can easily send chariots and the like, not necessarily what they can effectively administer.
- Location
- Mists of Albion
Not really...
They could easily just cross over the border if they did that. Also, the actual narrative said they were moved to the far Eastern territories
- Location
- his hidden lair
Considering they have a long tradition of establishing satellite states and have several heavily integrated vassals already? They probably could vassalize and hold onto at least part of the HK.
They'll have the prestige for it, and the TH's current monopoly on bronze makes it liable to be hard to revolt unless we supply them with iron, but it'll get out fairly quickly who's supplying the uprising. I'm not saying that the TH are totally the Not!Persians and going to assert hegemony over the Lowlands, but assuming they can't is something we can't really afford right now.
- Location
- Mists of Albion
Oh, so it's more a sphere of influence then?
That makes me feel somewhat better actually, I thought it was a full on border
I agree but the thing to remember about hegemonic rule as opposed to conquest is that it is fragile. Could the TH vassalize the lowlands? Maybe if everything went their way.
Could they vassalize the lowlands and afford to get into a slugging match with us using mostly vassal troops? I very much doubt it.
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