One Isanese ninja at the Chūnin Exams elected to trade the Elemental Mastery technique to a ninja from the Land of Wind, presumably upon being successfully manipulated with stories of the heat of the desert sun and the parallel cold of winter.
"The Wind Country ninja has been assassinated, but the risk profile is evident.
It just kind of struck me, with this line, how much of an actual shadowy conspiracy the anti-EM crew is. Gathering behind closed doors, we discuss a goal the rest of the world knows nothing about, cannot be allowed to know anything about, and we manipulate the world on scales great and small to achieve it. Arranging for someone's death is not only possible for us but a footnote, a matter of course as the world keeps turning and we discuss what must yet be done for our goals to become reality.
It's chilling, but also really cool in its own right. This is what it's like to be on the other side of that equation, without a shred of irony or comedy.
"This is my attempt at a full projection of the future of civilization, made with all reasonable resources available to me as a Clan Head of Leaf. Additional time and information may improve accuracy dramatically, but this is, to my knowledge, our best analysis at the moment. As you can see, the total annihilation of civilization is almost certain within a hundred years, with the lion's share of the risk coming from Elemental Mastery. Other lines represent other sources of existential risk, such as the Dragons whose median risk is only the vaguest of guesses, Akatsuki who might somehow attempt another world-altering ritual, or some unknown factor which I am currently unaware of, a category whose purpose I had reason to doubt until the Dragons enlightened me. I am now certain there are plenty. Only the small line at the bottom includes civilization's survival in any form."
"It's still going down, even at the end of the chart," Hazō said.
"Yes."
...and the reason why is as clear as it's ever been. We've known that civilization is on a downwards trend since near the beginning of the quest, from trends in agricultural records, but seeing it straight from Nara Shikamaru is another beast. This is the full picture, made with all the informational resources of Leaf and the deductive mind of a genius. You could quibble with the numbers but not, I think, truly disagree with them. Staring us right in the face, undeniable, are the long long odds we need to overcome to win our happy ending. The world has no obligation to be kind, and we cannot afford to hold back if we want to match it trial for trial. That is why our shadowy conspiracy exists, because it
must exist if humanity is to have any hope at all. Because no matter how thoroughly the Sage ruined the world when he held it in the palm of his hand, we'll do whatever it takes to save humanity. On this, Asuma and Shikamaru and Hazou all agree without reserve.
"Then let me ask the real question," Hazō said. "What are your goals? How do you want to change the world we live in? There are many dangers. Rock, Cloud, Akatsuki. We need to rise to the challenge of facing them. And there are more abstract threats. Famine, disease, and chakra beasts. I intend to conquer those too. If you can't even look as high as a rank in a well-defined progression, what are you going to achieve in the real world?
"What's the point of power if you can't use it for something great?"
And yet, quite the contrast here. It was our ambition that discovered the true potential of Elemental Mastery in the first place, our hand that set all this into motion. For all our lofty ideals, Isan would still be alive right now if it weren't for our singleminded obsession with surpassing limits, breaking rules, and making the impossible possible. We never have anything but the best of intentions, but now there's a frozen crater where humans once lived.
They would never have been put into this situation without my desire to claim the Pangolin Scroll."
"I understand," Shikamaru said. "However, if you hadn't, we would have had no chance at all to intervene in this potential apocalypse. Would you rather have stayed far enough away to not be morally culpable, and remained ignorant as storms claimed the continent?
But yet our shadowy conspiracy exists. We could have collectively chosen to forget about Elemental Mastery, do nothing and let nature take its course. The reason why we didn't is obvious: given the state of the world, nature would not be merciful. We are no safer for our ignorance, and we cannot shirk moral culpability by feigning ignorance (indeed, the very concept of "moral culpability" sounds so academic when the question is the survival of humanity. Even if one chose to call this an evil of the highest order, unmitigated by any good intentions or mitigation of existential risks, to do nothing could only be counted as suicidal, and a profoundly selfish one that drags everyone down with you at that), so we-who-know gather the resources we have and do the best we can, for everyone's sake. We can only call ourselves fortunate for having the means to act in the first place, for having discovered the threat early enough to make a difference.
Chōji considered that for a moment. The exposed flesh of the log in the fireplace was starting to shrivel and blacken as it slowly caught fire atop the embers. "I think it would be better for it to be too easy. It may be callous, but sacrifices are always necessary. Not everyone can live. If the right choice is that evident, then you should just make it. But I'd be careful, too. I think if I made too many sacrifices because I was doing some math that made hard decisions seem easy, I would worry about whether I was making the right calls at all. If my choices seemed wrong despite the math telling me it was right, I'd doubt the math first."
Shikamaru sighed. "You cannot doubt math, Chōji. Some answers, at least, are objective."
"That's where you and I differ," Chōji said, tapping his head. "When you do addition, you always get the right answer. Me, I'm very bad at math."
"That's not the math's fault."
"I'll blame it anyway," Chōji said, as the log caught fire. "After all, if it wanted me to get the right answers, why did it have to make everything so complicated?"
I quite like how this comes across. It's something I've talked about before, where the flaw with "greater good" logic isn't structural - that one shouldn't in fact seek the greatest good they can - but procedural - that one might fail to accurately determine what the greatest good is in the first place. In particular, the stereotypical failure mode is a shortsighted leader who becomes numb to the costs, who forgets how much he sacrifices and becomes willing to drastically overpay for what he gains. A leader who feels no imperative to seek better alternatives, because they fail to see how the price might be made lesser than it already is. A leader who would throw countless to burn, valuing them as nothing, in exchange for infinitesimal gain towards his goal, which he counts as everything.
But the flaws here are all procedural, not structural. If you never forget the costs you pay, if you never overinflate the value to be gained, if you never stop looking for alternate options, if you make no flaws at all at any step of the process, it remains true that one should pursue the best outcome, the course of action with the greatest expected good. Choji knows this, and so he trusts Shikamaru, but he also knows the limits of his own mind, and how he cannot unconditionally trust his own value assessments. So, knowing the cost of this failure mode, he trusts in his intuition, his gut feeling, as failsafe. If he ever forgets the value of a life in his conscious calculations, his intuitions will remind him, and he will avoid making a tragic mistake.
It's a good way to look at it, and I very much like how Choji (and, by extension, Paperclipped) can articulate it from a position of impressions and emotions rather than cerebral logic. It's one thing to list the systems and processes that align the various incentives, it's another thing to hear it as a simple truth that resonates on a deeper level, that demands nothing but a bit of wisdom to understand.
By the time we hear of another instance of the hellstorm, it will likely already be too late, and our next warning will be a cold wind over Leaf.
For a moment, she forgot that it was a cold winter night at all, and her heart was filled with warmth.
The night did not care. The cold wind intensified.
Through the fog, she barely got the impression of a vortex of ice and water forming in the air above and slightly beyond them.
A heartbeat passed. She felt a spray of something over her face and clothes. It was cold beyond cold. She tried to move.
A heartbeat. The cold gave way to numbness. She could not escape.
A heartbeat. Numbness gave way to nothingness.
Her heart beat no more.
And lastly, I just have to remark that Elemental Mastery, in its full capacity as a weapon of mass destruction, has such a fascinating and unique aesthetic. A dreadful cold wind that heralds the end, violent and energetic despite being cold beyond belief. It's not a simple thing of heat or force like mundane WMDs, and even cataclysmic magics across various settings tend towards the
graceful, an expanding wave of power inflicting its change upon the world as the threshold of the spell claims more territory (when it's not simply an instantaneous effect, blink-and-you-miss-it). This is a roiling turbulent chaos, more than a blizzard in every possible respect. You feel its presence as it begins to appear, the heat already seeping away from you before you know anything is amiss, and by the time you lay eyes on the source it's already far too late. I don't think I've seen an apocalyptic weapon quite like Elemental Mastery, and I'm loving the sheer style these descriptions of it exude.
All in all, an absolutely fantastic chapter. It's about such a grim topic, and in some ways more of a defeat than a victory, but I'm pretty sure when I look back and tally up my favourite chapters this will be up there near the top. It's definitely fitting that it's our 600th chapter, a defining milestone in the quest. Isan's been part of the quest for so long, and now the world will never look quite the same again.