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[X] Kagome It's Time to Cook Research
Word Count: 299
  • Sealing Research - on the Seventh Path, return for infusions only
    • Ask Kagome to work on Oro's Concealment Seals
    • 1st SSA track - RRBs, max prep, double invoke
    • 2nd SSA track - Fast Forward Runes, full prep
    • 3rd track Force Walls, max prep, infuse on day 7.
    • Do prep days on the following seals/runes
      • Hot Pocket Rune
      • Chakra Mapping Rune
      • Chakra Filtering Rune
      • Experiment with HOWS past-violet, can any of the Dogs see them?
        • Be careful, use SC
      • Research Jiraiya's Cooling Seals - if time remains
  • Meet with Cannai
    • Inform him about our changing circumstances, Naruto has ordered us to build Akatsuki-killing weapons.
    • The Toad Sages have agreed to teach us Technique Hacking. So we'll be primarily in Toad for a while
    • Ask him about his thoughts on the philosophy of chakra.
      • What does he think chakra is ontologically?
      • What are the differences between human and nature chakra?
      • How about the different Elements of the two?
    • Share what we learned from Orochimaru, does it match his experience as a Boss?
    • Has he ever heard of a human able to filter nature chakra and live?
      • Jiraiya warned us at the chunin exams, and the Toad Sages have let slip that the process usually involves turning into rock?
      • Apparently the Toad Sages can teach a human how to filter nature chakra, and somehow combine it with human chakra
      • Do the Dogs have any knowledge of this?
    • Has he ever heard of anything able to affect how much potential energy is in chakra? Analogize to a ball rolling down a hill
      • We think it's possible to set up a field where other humans are helpless but our Summons could fight unimpeded.
  • Misc.
    • Begin studying TH with the TS
    • Ask Noburi to get something that smells of Jūchi Yosamu and/or Fifi, have Canvass smell it
Okay needed some trimming, but the WC is below 300 again, line about Sub removed in light of the revelations about Sub seals being finished already. Now we are planning to research Jiriaya's Cooling Seals (to give us ideas for how to operationalize EM Nuke Runes). I also cut the prep day on Force Claws (sorry!) we aren't that likely to finish FW this cycle I don't think. If we do finish it, we can just do it next cycle. I also moved Kagome off assisting Hazou and into working on Orochimaru's stealth seals.
 
Chakra Mapping Rune

Rune (duh)


The first(?) step to making a chakra potential raising/lowering rune. This rune measures the nearby chakra potential for Human aspected chakra. Can detect spots where (human) jutsu take slightly less chakra to cast (high potential) and spots where they take slightly more (low potential). Rendered as a real-time heatmap. Or whatever form is most convenient.
 
plan changed to be a bit more readable, removed the jonin paper seal from the non-ssa track, replaced it with babies first time chamber rune. It's the first chain in a sealing series, it's easier than you'd expect, and is probably going to be weaker than we want. If there's changes I can make to win your vote please ping me.



[] Weapons Live in 3... 2... 1...
Word Count: 497
  • Sealing Research - primarily on the Seventh Path, return for infusions only
  • Prioritize research over FOOM xp.
    • 1st SSA track - RRBs, max prep, double invoke until finished, then continue Force Walls
    • 2nd SSA track - Minato's Army of One seal.
    • 3rd track - Fast Forward Runes, full prep
    • Do prep days on the following seals/runes
      • Hot Pocket Rune
      • Force Claws (only after completing Force Walls)
      • Animus of the Guardian Asura
      • Chakra Filtering Rune
      • Anti sealing failure rune which reduces all paper sealing failures to the level of normal research failures
      • Anti-EM nuke rune which 'locks in' the air temperature at infusion in a large radius for a short amount of time.
      • Anti-Skywalker rune which affects solid air chakra effects as soap affects water's surface tension, in a large radius
  • Meet with Cannai
    • Inform him about the changing circumstances of our mission, Naruto has ordered us to leave Leaf for a time to build Akatsuki-killing weapons.
    • The Toad Sages have agreed to teach us Technique Hacking. So we'll primarily be based out of Toad for the next couple months.
    • Ask him about his philosophy on chakra. What does Cannai think chakra is ontologically?
    • Has he ever heard of a human being able to filter 'nature' chakra - the chakra that Seventh path denizen use and not immediately die?
      • Jiraiya warned us of it back at the chunin exams, and the Toad Sages have let slip that the process usually involves turning into rock of some sort?
      • Yet according to Orochimaru, the Toad Sages can teach a human how to filter nature chakra, and use it internally, at the same time as human chakra for a major power boost.
      • Do the Dogs have any knowledge of this?
    • Has he ever heard of anything able to affect how much 'potential energy' chakra has? - A rock waiting to drop depends on the height, and weight of rock. What about chakra?
      • It seems like Hazou might be able to set up a field where other humans are helpless but his Summons could fight unimpeded.
    • Following up on a separate conversation - summon a shadow and earth clone for Cannai. Ask him if either jutsu are particularly 'bark', and which one is more, if it's possible to compare.
  • Kagome
    • If the first two substitution seal projects aren't necessary, ask him to start learning substitution seals.
    • Otherwise, work on a general 'homing' effect, using Jiraiya's earth bullet seals as inspiration
  • Ask Kei to run the following tests on substitution seals
    • Verify the 'daisy chain' mechanic is replicable Test: can substitution seals mimic this behavior? If not, prep day on sub seal that can
    • Test: Are substitution seals paired at infusion, or activation? If former spend a prep day on the latter
    • Test: can a substitution seal 'substitute over a cliff'? Down stairs? Over a small gap?
  • Misc.
    • Begin studying TH with the Toad Sages
    • Tell Kei about the weird smell, ask for something that smells like Yosamu and have Canvass smell it.
 
plan changed to be a bit more readable, removed the jonin paper seal from the non-ssa track, replaced it with babies first time chamber rune. It's the first chain in a sealing series, it's easier than you'd expect, and is probably going to be weaker than we want. If there's changes I can make to win your vote please ping me.
fwiw I think that unless you edit your earlier post, my post voting for you will qualify as the first vote for a plan and mess with the tally.
 
Nah, I edited my initial plan. I think you're looking at one of dragging-updated-plan-to-front-of-queue posts
Adhoc vote count started by Twinnstars on May 13, 2024 at 9:36 PM, finished with 119 posts and 13 votes.

@Korporati
You mentioned being less hard to convince than I would think to vote for my stuff, right? Anything I could change to get your vote?
 
[X] Kagome It's Time to Cook Research

brevity xp is important to me in general, but particularly as we are going to be in a position to maybe impress the TS during our lessons. Having some XP liquidity will be good.
 
That's... actually worse.
half of Hazou's PS score is from SSA, and we don't even have an order-of-magnitude guess how bad a runic failure would be.
Please no.
Ah, good. But yes I am similarly apprehensive about risky projects going in our third track.
Taking your concerns seriously - I do not believe us to be in any danger from a sealing failure here, even from a -12.

Our runecrafting roll starts at 27 from our levels in primordial sealing, plus the capped bonus stunt from sealing. Capped bonus stunts don't affect AB unfortunately, and they also count as a buff - so unfortunately, we shouldn't be able to use SSA alongside it without the combination stunt. Even with those disadvantages -
27 + 4 (prep) + 2(aspect) = 33.

I have high confidence the actual difficulty of "create a weak temporal effect in a small area" for a rune to be genin - 20 or below. This comes from my longstanding position that runes are a lot stronger than y'all think - we undershot the difficulty check here by a lot, and just don't have enough information fidelity to be as reassured as we should be right now.

@Paperclipped @Velorien @eaglejarl
Is primordial sealing intended to be an exception from the capped bonus stunt ruleset?
 
Our runecrafting roll starts at 27 from our levels in primordial sealing, plus the capped bonus stunt from sealing. Capped bonus stunts don't affect AB unfortunately, and they also count as a buff - so unfortunately, we shouldn't be able to use SSA alongside it without the combination stunt. Even with those disadvantages -
27 + 4 (prep) + 2(aspect) = 33.
A few problems with this.
Regular Sealing and Primordial sealing are related fields. Whichever one is lower receives a bonus of +⅓ the effective level of the other, capped at the base (as opposed to effective) level of the higher.
1) You made a math error here, Hazou's base PS is 11, his Sealing is 51, which means he gets a bonus of 51/3 = 17 to PS while using his base sealing. So it should be 28.

2) You're using an FP to get a +2 bonus? What a waste. Was this just so that you could say it won't even fail on a -12? Why not reroll a -3 or worse, that would cost less than 1 FP on average and provide a bigger bonus in terms of expected value (+3).

3) Note that PS gets a boost from the effective level of sealing, Hazou's effective sealing is 75 while he's using SSA, which puts his PS at 36. Don't believe me that he's allowed to do this? Look at these:
Hazō gets a bonus to Primordial Sealing based on his Sealing level. If he uses the SSA-adjusted Sealing level, then Primordial Sealing research attempts will trigger SSA.
Good question. Estimates were based on Unmodified Effective PS. As a general rule, we will always give estimates based on his full numbers unless specifically stated otherwise.
We are explicitly allowed by QM ruling to use our SSA bonus on PS.

This is not a violation of the buff stunt rules, Hazou has a variable effective sealing depending on whether he's using SSA or not. So he's getting one bonus to PS, of two different sizes. No need for a combination stunt. Now if he had two bonuses to PS, then he would need the stunt.
 
Taking your concerns seriously - I do not believe us to be in any danger from a sealing failure here, even from a -12.

Our runecrafting roll starts at 27 from our levels in primordial sealing, plus the capped bonus stunt from sealing. Capped bonus stunts don't affect AB unfortunately, and they also count as a buff - so unfortunately, we shouldn't be able to use SSA alongside it without the combination stunt. Even with those disadvantages -
27 + 4 (prep) + 2(aspect) = 33.

I have high confidence the actual difficulty of "create a weak temporal effect in a small area" for a rune to be genin - 20 or below. This comes from my longstanding position that runes are a lot stronger than y'all think - we undershot the difficulty check here by a lot, and just don't have enough information fidelity to be as reassured as we should be right now.

@Paperclipped @Velorien @eaglejarl
Is primordial sealing intended to be an exception from the capped bonus stunt ruleset?
Thank you for taking time to explain yourself.
That said, this mostly caused me to update about your judgement, not about sealing safety.

Is Hazou's DC estimate accurate(or skewed high)? Maybe!
if so, does that mean it's safe to research even without SSA? Maybe!

But we don't know, and even if you think the answers to both of these are "probably yes", you're acting as if the answer is "definitely yes".

Best guesses for runic sealing failure severity go from "several times worse than a sealing failure" to "destroy the human path".

I don't think we currently have enough information for you to possibly prove* your hunches. I am getting a data point of acting on hunches as if they were facts, even in a situation where overeaching could be a calamity.

*even to a relitively low threshold of p=0.9, which is still to much risk of a sealing failure.
 
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Not a good idea to link to a whole chapter. Better to make a new post or link to one of your old posts quoting the relevant section.

See no reason to call the behavior in the chapter daisy chaining. It is no different from Substituting with a log three steps away. From the ground, Noburi Substitutes with a log on top of a frozen log in the air. The frozen log is within jumping distance of a lower frozen log - logless, itself within jumping distance of the ground. There is one Substitution target. No chain. If either frozen log was too high to jump to, Substitution would fail. Because Noburi can walk three steps, he can Substitute with a log three steps away. Because Noburi can jump from the ground to the lower frozen log then from that log to the second log, he can Substitute with a log on the higher frozen log.
 
Thank you for taking time to explain yourself.
That said, this mostly caused me to update about your judgement, not about sealing safety.

Is Hazou's DC estimate accurate(or skewed high)? Maybe!
if so, does that mean it's safe to research even without SSA? Maybe!

But we don't know, and even if you think the answers to both of these are "probably yes", you're acting as if the answer is "definitely yes".
"Hazo thinks this is well within his capabilities" seems to be the highest level of confidence the current coarse-grained rune-difficulty assessment system can express. If that's not enough confidence to proceed with a normal degree of precautions, it almost sounds like you're saying we shouldn't be doing runic research at all.
 
"Hazo thinks this is well within his capabilities" seems to be the highest level of confidence the current coarse-grained rune-difficulty assessment system can express.
I think the problem here is the Hazou isn't exactly that experienced with Runic research yet and Runic Sealing Failures currently have infinite possible scaling on how bad they can get due to the lack of examples so far, so risking any chance of failure beyond the best efforts we can make seems fairly irresponsible?
 
"Hazo thinks this is well within his capabilities" seems to be the highest level of confidence the current coarse-grained rune-difficulty assessment system can express. If that's not enough confidence to proceed with a normal degree of precautions, it almost sounds like you're saying we shouldn't be doing runic research at all.
More like "we can probably take one or two of(unlucky rolls, underestimated the difficulty, half-assing with no SSA), but all three looks really dicey.

Once we have more experience and better estimates so the "underestimated difficulty" risk factor is reduced, I'll feel better about either trying harder runes, or trying easy runes without SSA.
 
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More like "we can probably take one or two of(unlucky rolls, underestimated the difficulty, half-assing with no SSA), but all three looks really dicey.

Once we have more experience and better estimates so the "underestimated difficulty" risk factor is reduced, I'll feel better about either trying harder runes, or trying easy runes without SSA.
I agree, I want to stick to stuff that is "well within" Hazou's difficulty estimate, and use SSA until we have a better handle on how hard these projects are.
 
How are people feeling about the buy/do not buy FP situation? I think that we should be okay. Especially after cutting the FW invoke.

Hazō (Calligraphy): 42 + 3 (IN) + 3 (Dampener) - 10 (Severe) + 10 (prep days) - 3 = 45 Hazō (Sealing): 51 + 24 (SSA) - 16 (Severe) + 10 (prep days) - 6 = 63

This is our first roll. Got us at least 10% of the way through the seal. Per recent WoG We have 15(?)% remaining. 10-20% anyway.

We'd be rolling 51 + 12 = 63 again so an invoke for another +6 might literally be the difference between success and another cycle here.

However, we could just roll well and complete it this cycle.
 
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