the bronze age collapse may be due to their huge raiding fleets going rogue.

Yeah, we have no reason to hurry. We have exploded in size, relatively speaking, and are in a good strategic position to long-term (!) claim Lowlands once we build a palace and integrate Lowland vassal. We can them proceed to sit on part of not!Silk Road once it appears, while exploding in population size due to fertile lands + our farming + water mills + aqueducts.
Trelli will become quite strong, yes, but it is not exactly a problem for us, and we have better avenues of expanding that we have already started on.
 
Telly is lining up for a foot shooting yeah.
Actually the bullet has already left the barrel.

Think about it. Who else is in the Southern Seas besides the Saffron Islanders and who has metric assloads of gold to pay mercs once they get currency? The Khemetri.

I don't give it long before the idea of mercs spreads to the Khemetri, and then voila the Trelli have started up a Clusterfuck that makes the Lowlands look like a cakewalk.

Do I think the Khem are going to be a threat to us because of this development, no. Funnily enough because of Trelli being in the way and that there are many people down there for them to fight with as well as my experience with how Clusterfucks tend to go in this game.


I'm re-thinking a lot of things right now.
 
I didn't have enough time to read everything, so I apologize if it was already brought up.

The way this entire mess is set up looks a lot like it could result in a Bronze Age collapse.

If the conflict with the Trelli bankrupts them, their mercenary armies are quite suddenly unpaid and will look to their surroundings for wealth. From the sound of it, most of those mercs are relatively primitive compared to the great civilizations around them, so won't care much about burning it all down when looking for loot.

Which will cause trade to break down and the general shitstorm to really break lose.

So we may accidentally a sizeable chunk of the Med.
 
While true, consider what the ents did in LoTR. Badasses are they.



There, there. This can be our final form! (Thanks @SpeckofStardust for finding this)

I mean what's the problem with being a final hidden boss when we can look this awesome? (completely ignoring the inevitability of a plucky hero kicking our ass for shinies)
Just imagine all the anime that's going to be made! Or even just the Fate/Stay Night equivalent, with Gwygo instead of Gil, or even fighting Gil!

Shit, we may even be the cause of NotDick!Wood Elves in fiction! Sheer madness!
 
Actually the bullet has already left the barrel.

Think about it. Who else is in the Southern Seas besides the Saffron Islanders and who has metric assloads of gold to pay mercs once they get currency? The Khemetri.

I don't give it long before the idea of mercs spreads to the Khemetri, and then voila the Trelli have started up a Clusterfuck that makes the Lowlands look like a cakewalk.

Do I think the Khem are going to be a threat to us because of this development, no. Funnily enough because of Trelli being in the way and that there are many people down there for them to fight with as well as my experience with how Clusterfucks tend to go in this game.


I'm re-thinking a lot of things right now.

Yep, this too. Saffron Islands are most likely not!Cretans who will soon explain to Trelli what real piracy looks like if history is any indicator, there will be not!Greeks and others spawning in several centuries and...and I'd rather not poke that hot mess and just slowly gobble up and fortify and unify to the gills Lowlands and enjoy population explosion while sitting on transportation arteries.
Of course, there will be Swamp Folk in the deltas of the rivers and TH and HK, so, like, we have our work cut out for us. But HK are affordable to peacefully gobble up piece by piece sooner or later with big enough refugees option due to geography and culture, we can integrate lowlands to get started on infrastructure to hold the lowlands and...like, if we play our cards right and are not distracted, we can somewhat comfortably get and hold Lowlands in ~1000 years without hurry, I think.


I didn't have enough time to read everything, so I apologize if it was already brought up.

The way this entire mess is set up looks a lot like it could result in a Bronze Age collapse.

If the conflict with the Trelli bankrupts them, their mercenary armies are quite suddenly unpaid and will look to their surroundings for wealth. From the sound of it, most of those mercs are relatively primitive compared to the great civilizations around them, so won't care much about burning it all down when looking for loot.

Which will cause trade to break down and the general shitstorm to really break lose.

So we may accidentally a sizeable chunk of the Med.

They'll do it just fine without our help. Saffron Islands and others will most likely see the benefits of mercing up and piracy and Khemetri will not like the potential rival rising up - especially since said rival will most likely want to leave more of the tin for their own use.
 
Just imagine all the anime that's going to be made! Or even just the Fate/Stay Night equivalent, with Gwygo instead of Gil, or even fighting Gil!

Shit, we may even be the cause of NotDick!Wood Elves in fiction! Sheer madness!
Well sadly we have definitely spawned a severe case of SUPERDick!Vampire Wood Elves given how everyone around us is annoyed with us/terrified, or dead.

But aside from that yes I would pay actual money to see Gwygo vs Gil. The dialogue would be pure gold and diamonds.


Yep, this too. Saffron Islands are most likely not!Cretans who will soon explain to Trelli what real piracy looks like if history is any indicator, there will be not!Greeks and others spawning in several centuries and...and I'd rather not poke that hot mess and just slowly gobble up and fortify and unify to the gills Lowlands and enjoy population explosion while sitting on transportation arteries.
Of course, there will be Swamp Folk in the deltas of the rivers and TH and HK, so, like, we have our work cut out for us. But HK are affordable to peacefully gobble up piece by piece sooner or later with big enough refugees option due to geography and culture, we can integrate lowlands to get started on infrastructure to hold the lowlands and...like, if we play our cards right and are not distracted, we can somewhat comfortably get and hold Lowlands in ~1000 years without hurry, I think.
Less than ~600 is my guess. PTSD-chan is in a good position to grab and hold half of the Center Lowlands right now which is huge in the sense of being important as well as land area.

Also note the HK and the Swamp People are actually our canaries, 'specially the SP, for if the Not!Med is really blowing up. We do want to absorb them, I really do, but this is a thing.
 
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Well, analysis post:

Diplomacy 11 [+2] -> 13 [+2]
-Mature Trade Post +1
-King of the Hill +1

Normal

Economy 5 [-2] -> 11 [-2+5]
-City Tax -2
-Palace -1
-Festival -1
-Core Secondary Expand Economy +2
-Province Main Expand Economy +4
-Baby Boom +5
-??? -1

Lost a point somewhere or messed up the math.
@Academia Nut did the Baby Boom get added as a +4 by accident?

Econ Expansion 12 [+2] -> 6 [+2-5]
-City Tax +2
-Palace +1
-Festival +1
-Core Secondary Expand Economy -2
-Province Main Expand Economy -4
-Baby Boom -5
-??? +1

See Econ math. We're going to be hopping in and out of "too high" and "too low" with the Giga Boom

Wealth 13 [+2-1] -> 13 [+3-1]
-Festival -2
-Trade Dominance(5) +2
-Saltern +1
-Mercenaries -1
-Tax crisis -0(?)

Tax crisis didn't seem to have done any damage this turn from a good roll?

Stability 0 (neutral) -> 1 (confident)
-Event reaction -1
-Critical +1
-Festival +1

That went well!

Religious Authority 4 -> 4

No change here but it seems Joyous Symphony trait evolution might have raised the cap of Religious Authority by at least 2, since it's no longer italicized either.

Art 6 -> 8
-Festival +2
-Palace -1
-Mysticism overflow +1

Normal

Mysticism 14 (+1) [+1] -> 15 [+1]
-Library cashout +1
-Temple +1
-Overflow to Art -1

Normal

Prestige 46 -> 48
-Festival critical? +2

Seems the event was a hit? People took credit for the weather turning.

Baby Boom: Converting 5 Econ Expansion to 5 Econ a turn
We're going to need quite a lot of Boats/Mills/Forests to generate the Econ slots to digest this for an extended period. Or just spend like crazy, that works too.

I mean, with this we could go on a megaproject SPRINT.


Trade Status
Resource Status Rivals
Luxuries    
Amber Known only  
Fine Pottery Minor  
Fine Dye Dominating Trelli
Fine Textiles None Swamp Folk, Trelli
Furs Known only  
Gems Leading Trelli, Tin Tribes, Khem (in)
Glass Dominant  
Gold Significant + minor trading (in) Metal Workers, Khem->Trelli
Incense None Khem->Trelli
Mercury Dominating None
Silver Significant (in, needing) MW, Trelli (in)
Salt Dominating Trelli
Spices None (SI+Khem)->Trelli
Wine Dominating Trelli
Strategic    
Copper Leading Highlanders, Thunder Horse, MW, Trelli
Bronze Minor Trelli
Slaves Forbidden MW (in), Trelli, TT
Tin Minor + Trading MW (in), TH (in), HK (in), Tin Tribes, Trelli->Khem
Iron Non-traded dominant None
Cultural    
Pilgrimage Leading Thunder Speakers
Trade changes:
-Gems: Significant -> Leading. The Sapphire mine finishes cashing out, but we need a trade post to control a second source...like say the Tin Tribes to gain Dominance in Gems.

-Gold: Significant + Lesser Trading -> Significant + Minor Trading. The Trelli adopting currency is putting strain on the regional gold supplies, but we have enough domestic production to keep up for now. One of our legal reforms is likely to find some way to cut the amount of gold used in Bwylls.

-Silver: Leading -> Significant. Same as with Gold, the Trelli are reserving what they have for their own coins, but domestic production is managing even if more is better. I think a big step is going to be adding a smaller denomination to reduce the demand for silver coins.

-Slaves: @Academia Nut I thought the Saffron Islands are supplying the Trelli with slaves? Shouldn't it be SI->Trelli or is that not how the notation works

Trait changes:
Joyous Symphony
All have their part to play in this world, be it their interaction with each other, their neighbours, or with the spirits. When all the parts of a group are moving in peaceful accord, the result is greater than the sum of the parts, and transcendental to behold.
Pros: Bonus to collective action, spiritually and ecologically harmonious actions, and to concerted efforts. Gain +1 Stability every time a defensive war non-destructively ends.
Cons: Disharmony is to be corrected, require casus belli to declare war
Bolded the differences.

This basically encourages us to war to white peace, and even take minimal tribute. We WANT them to come and take a swing at us again so we can prove the power of pacifism. But it also means that razing settlements are a no-no, though grabbing land should be fine.

Also it means our people aren't quite so dour anymore!
Take joy in symphony!
Be really creepy to the neighbors!

Tech:
Construction
Arch
Wood
Masonry
Noria
Early City Walls
Early Surveying

New tech. This is water powered pumps, which opens up differential gearing as a concept(basically one wheel has a lot more torque than the other wheel, so you can pump water uphill using the force of the water going downhill)

This also makes taller structures in the city much more managable, for instance, you don't need to worry about providing water to the fifth floor if a Noria can be used to pump water to higher and higher cisterns, then distributed from aqueducts running at 5th floor elevations.

Historically it also expands the areas where a saltern is viable. You see, the current saltern sites rely on finding a large stretch of level ground that's exactly between the high tide and low tide line, that we can manipulate with sluice gates, because manually pumping that much seawater is crazy

With a Noria, you can create a tidally driven water pump, which can push seawater into a saltern that's above the high tide mark, which should quadruple the saltern sites possible at least, once the idea propagates, though they'd also be more expensive to build(or rather they'd cost more Art per progress I expect due to the difficulties of constructing and maintaining large complex mechanisms).

We can also use Norias to drain flooded mines, but it's a lot more difficult until we devise chain and pulley transmissions to move motive force through weird angles.

Overall it doesn't save labor so much as make things which are too labor intensive to even TRY...merely costly in term of skilled labor, and even CHEAP in terms of manual labor.

Theory
Shield wall
Tactical Phases
And the shield wall meanwhile really screws with archery based enemies(like say, sea raiders who use it to soften up defenders for a boarding), while providing for the deadly combo of archer volley behind shieldwall.
Provinces – [Main] Megaproject, [Main] Expand Econ
Stallions – [Main] Art Patronage, [Sec] New Settlement, [Sec] Build Walls
Western - [Main] Build Watchtowers, [Main] New Trails, [Main] Expand Econ, [Sec] Survey
Greenshore – [Main] Build Mills x2
Hatvalley – [Main] New Settlement, [Main] Build Mills, [Sec] New Trails
Heaven's Hawk – [Main] Survey, [Main] Trade Mission – Nomads
Lowland Minors – [Main] Build Walls, [Main] Expand Econ
Provinces took the expected actions.
Stallions are expanding and getting Cultural, or they might be exploring how to use limestone/mortar in artwork?
Maybe saving up for a Temple improvement since thats their primary use for Art.

Western Wall learned that Trails boost Centralization tolerance and are busy building them across th whole stretch, along with towers to safeguard.

Greenshore has gone completely nuts with Mills to generate Econ expansions.

Hatvalley is expanding towards the Trelli as they go, and making mills to process the ore too.

Hawks went to have a chat with the Nomads and talk about how these southerners are crazy.

PTSD-chan is building up walls to secure their gains.

The king considered the issue for a long time, discussing it with his advisors and those who might be affected, before he finally came to a conclusion.

"We encouraged this. Perhaps we did not cause it, perhaps we are free from blame, but are we free from guilt? Could not more have been done? Perhaps, perhaps not, but future generations can never learn and do better if we do not admit fault here, if we do not say, 'We moved too fast because we got greedy'. So, take this tragedy and make it known, let people know that mistakes were made, but that we shall try better in the future. Take the wealth we took from this and turn it back to the community, such that all will know that this was meant to enrich all, and not a greedy few."

And thus it was the lessons were learned and taught, and the People did have the shock of knowing that their leadership could really screw things up with short sighted greed.
Coincidentally, 2 Wealth is the 'dirty' money, which we had churned into a 2 Wealth festival to reinforce the message of the mining accident.

Haste makes Hazards!
It's an alien idea to many leaderships, and likely will put our Legitimacy at risk in the future one way or another, but facing faults means improving upon them.

And of course, with the Royal example, lesser administrators also can be assured that if they screw up, they also should announce it and seek to make amends rather than hide it for fear of punishment.

Only then, something unexpected happened. The gods smiled upon the People. The People had found peace with the environment, their neighbours, and even the demons within themselves, and for this peace the rains and winds shifted. Unstable mud became wonderfully stable, moist soil that seemed eager to be planted, and the places where water liked to pool and stagnate dried to become green glens. With just a bit of work the water works were adjusted and generations of labour turned into a bursting of life. The demons of disease haunting the forests disappeared entirely, and all the efforts the People had put into fighting them turned into a tremendous release from the misery of loss of children and elders. Only in myths and the oldest records was such a thing as this ever heard of, but the king's apology to the People soon became a celebration.
Woo, the winds returned! And that means that we can put our knowledge of the environment to work making a huge profit instead of just staying afloat.

The gods had been testing them, and they passed! Life begat life, generosity begat generosity, and peace begat peace! Somewhere along the line the music of the festivals took this up, something changing in the way they did things to better express the transcendent joy to be alive and know that the purpose the gods had made for them was to be alive and love each other!
And this syncs up with the debates of last generation, validating our arguments that the fire is warm.

And with the winds and rains calmed, the seas became easier to cross, and with no wars with their neighbours the People once more could trade openly and move their goods in relative safety, wealth flowed like never before. Even if tax collection was still being weird and there were inefficiencies and odd forms of corruption, suddenly so much was moving that it was hard to see the little losses, even if the king was assured that it was actually quite a lot once you tallied it all.

Climate Change Ended!
Disrupted Trade Ended!
Baby Boom Activated!
All started at the beginning of the turn!
And our 5 Trade Dominances kick in(six once the West trade post boosts our Gems) at last.

Limited to a relatively small area, Greenshore also leveraged the considerable wealth they produced in serving as a way point between the People and the Metal Workers and the Trelli to build extensive mill projects. Interestingly, somewhere along the line someone had figured out a way to get the wheel to run in reverse, with input power being used to raise water up - probably some clever fellow trying to drain a swampy area - and the principle had become implemented in a most interesting way. By attaching a water lifting wheel to a stronger water wheel you could have water lifted by the motion of the river, which radically simplified the aqueduct project Greenshore was working on, as well as providing new insights for other locations where the problem was not so much access to water but getting the water to the right elevation to be simultaneously useful but safe to have running through your city. It might also be of great use in mines where the lower levels had an unfortunate tendency to fill up with water.
And Greenshore critical completes the aqueduct project by reducing the costs, while also cutting the costs for Redshore and Blackmouth Aqueducts(which would have eliminated the main problem of making Redshore the Palace, but literally could not have foreseen this).

As mentioned above, this will also help with deeper mines and more importantly for us, it'd make salterns feasible for many more locations, though building enough Norias to pump seawater into them may be costly in Art.

However, even as the metaphorical skies cleared, there were soon new clouds on the horizon, mostly from the direction of the Trelli, although of course there were already fresh tensions brewing in the north with nomad tribe numbers increasing. The Trelli though... the Trelli had obviously learned from their trade with the People, and had begun to start striking their own coins to facilitate trade. This caused a minor hiccup as the Trelli became a net sink of silver and gold, but fortunately the People had both enough luxury items and enough production of their own that their own need of precious metals for coinage was not significantly affected.
Fortunately we have a lot of domestic gold and silver production to keep the currency flowing, and can substitute dye or salt at need...but this would be a problem later on. The Trelli will need vast amounts of silver and gold very soon, which means they'd be looking to Hatvalley and the Metalworkers eventually unless they can find a domestic source.

However...

"Any idea why there's so much less saffron this season?"

"The ships from the place where its made are more full of slaves these days - more profitable with all the fighting."
And so the economics shifted. As mentioned, we've been encouraging the aggressive use of slavery elsewhere to make enough trade goods for us...and then they realized, fuck trade goods, just use slaves, they're easy to produce.

To slowly dawning realization and then horror, it was discovered that the Trelli had also figured out that you could pay warriors very well to fight very hard for you, and had turned this into a way to massively recruit from the tribes around them.
This would have been the Salt Gift reaction incidentally, I suspect. Just buy out the mercenaries from under the Trelli.

Those that they were paying were being used to attack outlying tribes that didn't produce anything of "value", raiding them for slaves to be sold to richer trade partners, or those who might get "better" use out of them like the various groups that did mining with slaves and traded the results to the Trelli.
And here is an early cash-crop economy. If you couldn't support a cash crop then you would produce slaves to allow others to produce even more cash crops.

It's of course, brittle. It relies on the trade center having goods that everyone wants. But until that point hits, the Trelli will undergo explosive growth, which their metaobjective is to seize enough mines and trade good production to be self sufficient enough to ride out the collapse.

The more loyal warriors were farmed out to the rich kingdoms of the Saffron Isles to better assist in their feuds... also producing more slaves, especially as Trelli coin fueled massive incentive to raid your neighbours for the money to buy their mercenaries before your neighbours did the same to you first.
And in a chain reaction, everyone was doing massive slaving to pay for raiders to take slaves for them. Once one of them takes true dominance you're going to see a Xohyr-like situation...except on islands it'd be harder to retain control.

Maybe we should send a mission to get some Saffron seeds...well if the Trelli let us through anyway.
We'll just have to make do with opium.

Worse yet, there were rumours that the knife hulled ships that hugged the Trelli coasts and aggressively patrolled their strait were being built with the intent to fill with mercenaries to hunt the trade ships of the sea. Why trade with others when you could just take their things for yourself? So far these were just rumours coming from the unknown southern seas, but the People had to admit that their ships were mostly used for trade and exploration and weren't really meant for fighting in the way the sea cutting ships of the Trelli were.
And the Trelli finally find a reason to actually build boats, to raid people with. Though they're going to need to work on size if they want to engage Ymaryn ships(since Longships are Portable Size Size Speed to their Cutter Speed Speed), they could make a lot of trouble if they traveled in wolfpacks.

The counter strategy then is our Outriggers(Stability) going for Speed Speed Size to contest them with mobility and rams(i.e. fighting to sink in a war of maneuver), or going for Size Size Speed to do it Roman style(i.e. converting a naval battle into a land battle with a large stable vessel where their disciplined units could use land tactics for boarding actions and archers have enough room to volley).

The latter design of course has some synergy as soon as someone figures out Mills -> Stone Throwers. That'd be fun.

One definite response was to put down a new trading post to the north-west of Trelli, upon the river that was the main access route into the interior of the mountains where the Tin Tribes dwelt. While definitely something of a provocation, it would allow the People to influence the tin trade before it got to Trelli. That would negatively influence both their finances and ability to arm their mercenaries, as well as reducing the flow of wealth necessary to keep the number of mercenaries they had hired happily paid off through simple competition. That might trigger a fight that the People would have a hard time supporting, but the Red Banner Company could be deployed to help the location stay safe while it was getting established and built. Hopefully they could also just use trade and shifting wealth around to get the Trelli to be less aggressive towards their neighbours, rather than encouraging strife for profit.

The gods had just lifted their curse from the People over not doing that!
West Trade Post Intent: Use of economic leverage with Tin, Bronze and Gems(our sixth dominance) to make the Trelli play nice at least in the Black Sea or lose the very important shinies.

May lead to war because the whole idea of piracy was that it's more profitable to just rob people than to trade with them. They do need the Tin and Bronze badly enough that it has a fair chance of forcing them to play nice, and they'd make major losses if we have Gem dominance and screw up the Khemtri trade.
There were other options too. There was another site to the east of Trelli, at the mouth of the river that had once fed out of north-west Hathatyn territory - now a scattered collection of villages and bandit clans. While less provocative towards the Trelli, it would greatly facilitate trade from Hatriver to the Trelli, enabling the People to more efficiently haul wealth away from that city via the mines from Hatvalley. It was also more defensible by the People, if still needing early protection by the Red Banner.
East Trade Post Intent: Use of trade power of Hatriver to exert economic leverage so that they'd call off the pirates because they want the Hatriver wealth.

May lead to war because the whole idea of piracy was that it's more profitable to just rob people than to trade with them. It has a chance to force them to play ball because they want our gold and silver for currency, but we don't sell those, so it's down to Mercury and Dyes.

Or perhaps they could set up a post in the far north to collect exotics... possibly also see if they could make bigger ships out of some of the semi-mythical trees that were said to be there.
North Trade Post Intent: Ignore the Trelli for the next five generations or so while we try to find a method to break the size limit on ships with new materials, while using exotic trade goods to try to make the Trelli play ball in the short term.

May lead to war because the whole idea of piracy was that it's more profitable to just rob people than to trade with them. It works great if the Trelli are not interested in the Black Sea for the near future, though considering the value of the Tin and Bronze to them, that is strategically unlikely.

Then we have the rest:
[] [Diplo] Open fresh trade (Two Sec Trade Missions to neighbours)

The Trelli are butts, so we reopen our trade with the lowlanders(HK, Thunder Horse, Swamp Folk, Thunder Speakers). By buying up Cotton from the Swamp Folk, as well as Copper from the Thunder Horse, we can increase the value of our goods and force them to negotiate.

[] [Diplo] Demonstrate wealth (Main Salt Gift)

The Trelli are hiring all the local tribes to fight for them...but we're RICHER(for now), so we can try to buy out mercenary bands before they can hire them.
Of course, this does mean we'd need to pay for them and minor martially inclined tribes are not exactly rare, so it's a short term solution by delaying the Trelli mode of war, and due to slave raids granting more instant Wealth, they can keep this up pretty long.

[] [Diplo] Need a bigger boat (Main More Boats)

The Trelli are threatening shipping, so we make our Longships or Outriggers too big for them to assault effectively. If you have a ship which can house a full archer volley, then the Trelli pirates pretty much have to avoid them or gang up on them, neither of which are very profitable.

[] [Diplo] Tie everything further together (Main New Trails)

Outsiders are being butts, we'd just improve internal trade and they can all go fuck off. An eminently practical solution to be fair, but when your neighbors are going expansionist, it presents some complications.

[] [Diplo] Stay home, garden (Main Expand Econ)

No reason to actually do this unless we want overcrowding.

[] [Int] Build palace (Extra megaproject action)

Tries to rush more Palace sooner. Doesn't really affect the completion time though, due to Law and Symphony, the cap is more based on resources.

[] [Int] Garden (Main Expand Econ)

No reason to actually do this unless we want overcrowding.

[] [Int] Plant forests (Main Expand Forests)

Generate more LTE.
Build up for the Grand Docks? More Forests never hurt for us.

[] [Int] Water wheels are awesome (Main Build Mills)

Generate more LTE so we don't get whiplash from the baby boom.
Try to shoot for figuring out siege engines maybe? We technically aren't that far away from figuring out a ballista(just need to figure out torsion and put it together), they were around since 800 BC after all.
The ability to actually destroy ships rather than just injure their crew is a pretty big leap.

[] [Int] Party! (Main Improve Festival)

Move one step closer to a Golden Age and generally celebrate things looking up.
Gives a lot more tolerance for fuckups too.
 
**Pops in to check tally*

Huh. North made a huge turn around and is only a bit shy of taking the lead.

What happened?
Largely continuous focus on repeating the same points and hyperbole over and over as if they're fact.

Despite the Northern Trade Post being arguably the worst one for ability to respond to any crisis and that the Western Trade Post + Red Banner is explicitly expected to win any defensive military confrontation, and will mainly be at risk if we don't uptech fast enough to cope with a blockade
 
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Well sadly we have definitely spawned a severe case of SUPERDick!Vampire Wood Elves given how everyone around us is annoyed with us/terrified, or dead.

But aside from that yes I would pay actual money to see Gwygo vs Gil. The dialogue would be pure gold and diamonds.

I can see two possibilities!

1. Gil is still the King of Heroes, ie older than Gwygo maybe the oldest legend known etc. Basically Canon!Gil with Gwygo just inserted in for the interaction.

2.Gil is NOT the King of Heroes or IS but Gwygo is equivalently powerful and known. They then proceed to do the Fate/ZERO thing with the Feast of Kings except after all the Youngins (Alex and Art) get to vent, they solely compete against each other. Basically, replace Gil's obsession with Saber with Gwygo, or at least make her his main reason for being in the War. Gwygo might approve of Saber for all the defensive warfare she did lol...
 
No bitterness, arguments have been completely and exhaustively gone through, and WoG actually disproved a number of the points raised. They're still being raised.

Currently it's just repetition over a very long span of time, and it's working.
 
Less than ~600 is my guess. PTSD-chan is in a good position to grab and hold half of the Center Lowlands right now which is huge in the sense of being important as well as land area.

Also note the HK and the Swamp People are actually our canaries, 'specially the SP, for if the Not!Med is really blowing up. We do want to absorb them, I really do, but this is a thing.

Our Lowlands is kinda dump-ish parts of them though, real fertile parts are not in our hands.
And I said "comfortably" and "without hurry"; of course we can do it in half the time if we beeline the things we need to do so - Stability to diploannex HK via Refugee triggers, fortifying lowlands, megaproject to make cataracts passable by water, that sort of thing - but we have other stuff brewing.


Any takers without Veekie's apparent bitterness / bias?

Same as with the first reaction to Khemetri trader: people cooled down and realized that there is such thing as context.
More specifically, they realized just how big of an investment - which would lead to us spreading ourselves too thin - the passive-agressive setting should be to deal with Trelli.

Also, AN has explicitly stated that "We would be utterly fucked if we tried offensive and defending would be hard but probably doable". And also that "RB could probably fight back Trelli, but things would get way dicier if Trelli went and hired more tribes", with the implication of "probably" being about Trelli and their core merc groups.

Which is as close to "this is a suicide or at least too investment-heavy for voter discipline to hold option, folks, you have been warned" as AN ever gets to.

So, basically: first-impulse is slowly losing lead as people rethink what they know and how hard any of the options will be.

Granted, I personally dislike Far North option too and would prefer to do nothing expansionist and keep improving our internal affairs and making sure we do not lose what we have, but even it will be lesser investment than duking it out with the peer power at their home field.

No bitterness, arguments have been completely and exhaustively gone through, and WoG actually disproved a number of the points raised. They're still being raised.

Currently it's just repetition over a very long span of time, and it's working.

You mean "disproved your arguments", hah. Because AN has repeatedly disproven that it will be anywhere near as easy as you folks make it out to be.
And also he disproved the notion of nomads being easy to defend against (yet again), which is tangentially related because it means we need even more attention at home front.

Or what anti-West TP arguments were disproven by AN, in your opinion?
The Red Banner are probably hard enough to take them, but the Trelli are much closer and it would be difficult to support a post that far out. If you got blockaded things could get very dicey, especially if the Trelli brought in extra tribes for support.
Their immediate neighbours work for them. Those that didn't were wiped out by those that hired on, sold off to the Saffron Islands, Khemetri, and Tin Tribes, their land brought under Trelli control or gifted to their mercs as a reward.
They're using fast galleys as interceptors, so they haven't really worked on ramming as an actual tactic, but if you're smaller enough they have no compunctions about running you over.

They have developed to a True City now.

And 'Yes' to your last question.

They are True City-level populous and rich, their neighbours are not going to suddenly switch sides like you make them out to be, and RB are only probably winning before Trelli bring in more dudes.
 
And the Trelli finally find a reason to actually build boats, to raid people with. Though they're going to need to work on size if they want to engage Ymaryn ships(since Longships are Portable Size Size Speed to their Cutter Speed Speed), they could make a lot of trouble if they traveled in wolfpacks.

The counter strategy then is our Outriggers(Stability) going for Speed Speed Size to contest them with mobility and rams(i.e. fighting to sink in a war of maneuver), or going for Size Size Speed to do it Roman style(i.e. converting a naval battle into a land battle with a large stable vessel where their disciplined units could use land tactics for boarding actions and archers have enough room to volley).

The latter design of course has some synergy as soon as someone figures out Mills -> Stone Throwers. That'd be fun.
Well, one thought that occurred to me and made me rethink my vote was that based on this quote the Trelli have no interest in us right now and for a good period of time for the future.

My reasons are that:
These are rumors from the southern seas. That says they have not gazed our way and are just starting this train. Reading carefully I see a disconnect between <Trelli going to piracy> and <Trelli pirating the Ymaryn>. It will happen, but I figure it will actually take a while now.
Another reason is from me looking at it from their perspective. To the Trelli we are obviously a tribe/(nation really), that produces things of value. And the they didn't dick over tribes who produced "value". So I see little reason for them to attack us in the next few turns.


That's me though.
 
Honestly the trelli just opened up pandoras' box what with spreading the concept the mercenary companies to their region I mean eventually all the other civs their will think why pay the trelli for mercenary companies when they can just found their own and with it comes the competition to get gold and silver mines which will plunge the region into chaos.
 
You mean "disproved your arguments", hah. Because AN has repeatedly disproven that it will be anywhere near as easy as you folks make it out to be.
And also he disproved the notion of nomads being easy to defend against (yet again), which is tangentially related because it means we need even more attention at home front.

Or what anti-West TP arguments were disproven by AN, in your opinion?

Two biggest ones:
-That the Western Trade Post will fall.
--WoG says that we have poor chances of succeeding at an offensive against the Trelli homeland.
---WoG ALSO says that we have good chances of succeeding at a defensive to protect a Trade Post
--WoG says the Red Banner are up to the task, with all currently employed forces.
---WoG says that the Red Banner will face difficulties if even more mercenaries are recruited from the surrounding region.
--WoG says that the Trade Post will be in trouble from an extended blockade unless we develop ship innovations
---WoG says that if a blockade happens, ship innovations would be massively accelerated.
--WoG in the update itself says there is a chance of war, not a certainty. It has been very extensively claimed that this will provoke a war.
---WoG in the update itself says that the Trade Post is intended to PREVENT war, via economic leverage. The Trelli cannot afford to blockade it for long, because losing out on the Dye, Mercury, Tin and the Gems will punish their ability to pay for mercenaries.

-That the Northern Trade Post is the safe option.
--WoG says that the Trade Post will require a garrison of a mercenary company to succeed and that more than one would be useful.
---This suggests that there is significant military risk up north. Despite arguments that we can defeat the nomads, at no point was it suggested that the threat is nomad based rather than the local tribes.
--WoG says that the Trade Post must survive three turns of environmental stress. Mathematically, the Trade Post's starting Econ of 2 has a low chance of surviving it's first turn without additional investment. We know this because climate stress inflicts 1-3 Econ damage, and that winter is at least as big an adaptation as the floods we've been dealing with, if not bigger because the old crops don't work as well as they used to, if they grow at all.
---Mathematically, this requires 3 Main Support Subordinate actions to be completely safe, of which one must be on the same turn it's founded. However, at a minimum, one Main Support Subordinate on the same turn it's founded would cut the risk of collapse in half.
--There is also a claim that 'if it collapses, so be it', though since only one person seriously pushed that view I'm inclined to treat it as an outlier along the lines of those claiming that the Western Trade Post would allow us to attack the Trelli and win.
---WoG says that we are REQUIRED to protect and support all lands we claim. We will take the same damage from losing the Northern Trade Post as we would from losing the Western.

As such, the more solid argument is less that the Western Trade Post is trouble free, and more that that Northern Trade Post would screw things up even worse in the short term, without improving our ability to force an end to raiding.

And of course the claims that the Trelli will implode soon doesn't really line up with history. They won't do that unless their strategic supplies are lost, but not claiming the Western Trade Post would ALSO allow them to secure said strategic tin and ensure longevity in the 20 year span
 
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[X] [Exp] Found Trelli Trade Post, West
[X] [Diplo] Tie everything further together (Main New Trails)
[X] [Int] Water wheels are awesome (Main Build Mills)
 
-That the Western Trade Post will fall.
--WoG says that we have poor chances of succeeding at an offensive against the Trelli homeland.
---WoG ALSO says that we have good chances of succeeding at a defensive to protect a Trade Post

What?
The Red Banner are probably hard enough to take them, but the Trelli are much closer and it would be difficult to support a post that far out. If you got blockaded things could get very dicey, especially if the Trelli brought in extra tribes for support.
Offensively would be screwed, defensively... it would be hard, but probably doable.

He has literally said that even defensively it will be hard, but probably doable, and offensively we are just fucked. Literally there.

What the fuck did he say that led you to think we have "good chance" to defend when he explicitly said otherwise?
 
--WoG says the Red Banner are up to the task, with all currently employed forces.
---WoG says that the Red Banner will face difficulties if even more mercenaries are recruited from the surrounding region.

And he said, quotes above, that it will be "probably" up to the task if the Trelli do not include even more mercs.
Seriously, you are directly contradicting WoG while claiming it supports you.
 
It is quite notable that you @veekie did not cite the WoG quotes that "support" your point - because that would uncover that you are peddling outright bullshit that is contradicted by what AN said. It seems to work at least on some people though.
And yet it is his opponents that use scaremongering and repeating of the same points. Projecting much, @veekie ?
 
What?



He has literally said that even defensively it will be hard, but probably doable, and offensively we are just fucked. Literally there.

What the fuck did he say that led you to think we have "good chance" to defend when he explicitly said otherwise?
He outright said that the Red Banner is up to the task with current mercenaries, the danger lies in the blockade allowing them to bring in more mercenaries if our ship tech doesn't catch up. Which is what makes it trickier.

It's a pretty straight reading of it. If the Trelli go to war, any measure of their military capacity would necessarily include all current mercenaries.
And he said, quotes above, that it will be "probably" up to the task if the Trelli do not include even more mercs.
Seriously, you are directly contradicting WoG while claiming it supports you.
Reading comprehension.
He said:
-The Red Banner can take the expected forces.
-That the Trelli are expected to call in all their current mercenaries for this(when asked if they would call in the currently on hire/on raid forces)
-That the Red Banner would find it difficult if they bring in MORE mercenaries(aka hiring more than they can pay for long term by contracting more tribes)
--That this will be a problem mainly because a blockade will make us unable to bring in more dudes via War Missions or Support Subordinate.
---Unless we make ships that can break their blockade or run their blockade.
---Or if we managed to take another Dominance and force them to fold or go bankrupt.
It is quite notable that you @veekie did not cite the WoG quotes that "support" your point - because that would uncover that you are peddling outright bullshit that is contradicted by what AN said. It seems to work at least on some people though.
And yet it is his opponents that use scaremongering and repeating of the same points. Projecting much, @veekie ?
Same exact quotes you are using dude
 
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