Hey guys I think I'm lucid again because I actually managed to vocalize all of this and I actually have a degree of confidence in it.

Again, this is regarding not this vote but how to deal with the Oriko convo, authored on an "if/when" basis. A lot of this stuff actually applies whether or not we talk to her now.

... All of it applies whether we talk to her now or not.

This has to be a 270-degree turn from what we've been doing. We've gotten Oriko used to emotional, "rage against the dying of the light, dammit" Sabrina, who won't even contemplate the idea that Oriko could really be destined to die. We're loud, we're brash, we trample on politeness when we feel the need to. And we're so obviously a good person that it works out.

Ugolino and others have raised points about the possibility that, at this point, basically nothing we can say will matter because she'll just shrug it off or ignore it or etc. And I can't help but feel that they're kind of right, because everything we've done and said has looked and sounded like the same stuff we've done so much. What's the precog spiral at this point but another thing we're saying? We'll end up using the same tone, and the same everything, etcetera. And we won't accept that we could be wrong, because that would mean not being able to save Oriko.

And doing that is going to torpedo this. Like, completely.

Being like that isn't wrong. In-setting it's, uh, actually kind of fucking right. But we need something totally different if we want to make a further impact here.

So I'm going to address a couple things here.

First, what the fuck are we hoping for? Well, there's three big points. We want Oriko to not go back to being a terrorist. We want Oriko to stop believing she has to die. We want Kirika to stop believing Oriko when Oriko says that Oriko has to die.

Getting Oriko to stop believing she has to die is frankly unlikely as an immediate result of this conversation.

Getting Oriko to not go back to being a terrorist is... it's hard to tell, but we have to achieve that. Because otherwise we've lost her.

Getting Kirika to stop believing Oriko about this, though, actually seems pretty reasonable.



This line has stuck with me pretty heavily. And other stuff Kirika has done. I think some part of Kirika recognizes that going along with this isn't the right thing for her -- for them, rather -- to be doing. And I think we can really heavily affect that.

But we have to frame it as talking to Oriko. And if we want to maximize the chance of her taking things seriously, then we need another tack from what we've been taking. Something out of line with our normal behavior, but something we can fit into just as well.

But in fact, we have something that is exactly that. We don't use it much, because we don't need to in this quest, because it's weird and not the average person's way of talking things over.

But SV has a certain duality behind it: the fiery hope of overcoming all obstacles, and the cold science that we trust to enable that.

I am personally fucking sick of this mangled intercourse between us and Oriko. It's like two ideologues scratching each others' eyes out instead of an exchange between rational humans. And it's done a right good job of pissing her off.

So let's be fucking rational. Let's sit down, apologize for being rude, and then start positing theories, asking questions, gathering data, and questioning our own damn hypothesis. Be the scientist. We have a theory, she has a theory. We don't like her theory but we actually don't have the hard evidence to disprove it, merely a lot of logical arguments against it, so let's stop treating it like dirt because that pisses her off. Let's take her into account, and shape a discussion where, instead of having a situation where we plan questions like "is this about saving the world or killing yourself" as lead-ins and capstones, we consider what her emotional response to things is likely to be and we take steps to account for that in order to maintain as rational a discourse as we can -- if we have to say she's depressed, we say "I know this is un-Japanese, but bear with me" or some such.

And most of all, at every step of the course, let's actually maintain our own fallibility. Make this something we're not pushing on her. Not because we don't believe it, but because it will make her more willing to listen to us. I don't know that we ever could have successfully done this from a "this is truth, accept it" point of things -- from any angle where we hope to get her to accept what we're saying as we say it. But right now, we have two more achievable goals: we want to affect Kirika, and we want to deescalate Oriko. More than anything else, I think that what's really lit the fuse on Oriko has been our seeming unwillingness to compromise on anything in the conversations we've had with her. People have observed that Oriko seems to be doing better "now that she's in conflict with us again," I don't know how many people put stake in that, but that conflict is there because we try to push our ideas on her and don't make any apparent effort to consider hers -- that is that conflict.

- This conversation, as is, is shot in the foot and dead on arrival.
-- But we really don't like where it's being left off.
--- Use a pause (Homu's interruption) followed by a major demeanor change to affect a change of context & direction, which will allow us to continue the conversation with a much-less-shot foot.

- We want to deescalate Oriko.
-- She is currently escalating because we are pushing at her and not backing down.
--- Treat her with more respect, treat her theories as worth respect (not necessarily belief), point out our own breaches of politeness before we make them and ask forgiveness in advance, admit that we could be wrong, assert that our earlier actions had a return in order to slightly reduce how much they affect her judgement of us (currently she views the entire exchange up to this moment as pointless and offensive, saying that they had a point is at least one step up the ladder, and they did:)



- We want to get through to Kirika
-- This is easiest goal, we really just need to succeed in presenting to her a possible situation where cooperating with Oriko's pursuit of suicide might actually be against Oriko's interests.
--- Involve Kirika in the discussion of the theory.

- We want to get the whole theory laid out and for O&K to actually consider it
-- Treat them with respect, same way you'd try to get another forumgoer to consider a theory
--- Ask them for input where possible, paint the situation as you having an unconfirmed but possible theory and you're looking for evidence that, conveniently, they might have.


[] Don't vocalize any of this. You're going to have to stay calm for the entire duration of this, because if you get emotional about it, it's going to look like it's supposition and hope speaking, not reason and logic. You've already done a wonderful job of making the impression on her that fireAndHope!Sabrina just argues at her and doesn't say anything of use. Be the scientist. Be the ice. The fire and the believer need to take a back seat for a bit. Also, you might have to cleanse her if any of this hits home well enough.
[] Tear down the privacy device, walk back over to the couch, and apologize to Oriko for, yes, the brusqueness, rudeness of your questions. But you did get what you were hoping to from them.
-[] If she asks what that was, ask if she'll give you a moment? Without any context it's quite useless and would probably just annoy her.
[] Tell her that you have a theory, and ask her to hear it out, because everything she's said jibes too well with it. But also note that, since it's a theory, it is in the end not something you'd just ask her to accept.
[] Explain that there's two sides to the theory, and that both are meaningless without the other, but obviously you can only cover one at a time. This is relevant because, alone, each half seems meaningless or even insulting.
-[] Note that you're aware of the Japanese tendency to minimize and disregard such things, then explain your belief that Oriko had major preexisting issues with depression before she made her wish. This is not either half of the theory, but it is the starting point.
-[] Observe that magic, being derived from humans, is not particularly separate from us (humans) -- we control it with our minds, it's practically another limb. Tell her that while you can't make claim to certainty, the idea that her depression wouldn't have contaminated her precognition is probably less reasonable than the opposite. Compare it to a meguca who can conjure up any sword, but who spent a year before contracting practicing with a katana. Even if it only happens on a subconscious level, that meguca will lean towards blades that are more like katanas.
-[] The other half, then, what is the result of feeding precognitive visions tainted with depression into the mind of somebody already depressed? And equally, as the visions reinforce the depression, won't the taint in those visions get worse and worse?
-[] You realize that proof is sparse. But where's the evidence for the competing theory, either? Ask about the vision granted by her wish. Did it include her death? After that, is there any correlation between time and the negativity of her visions? Can she think of any other evidence to bolster or weaken the theory? How about Kirika?

Some of this is probably overdramatized or slightly off path, which is why I've tried to lay it out in a hypothetical vote, as a list of points, and as an essay. But I hope that the overall point will carry through.

Godwinson I'm going to modify this a bit, but not terribly much. I think the action plan thing is directed at me *rubs back of neck* yeah that's definitely my fault.

[X] Tear down the privacy device, don't need it any more.
[X] Give Oriko a heartfelt apology regarding your tone before the interruption.
[X] Tell her about your theory that her depression and precognition are feeding back on one another, and that she's lost her magic because she rejected her wish by seeking out death, rather than life. Be empathetic.
-[X] At any point where you feel you might offend her by saying something, warn her beforehand that it might offend her, but say it anyways.
-[X] Be explicit about it being a theory, not an established fact.
--[X] After it's been laid out, ask about any supporting evidence O&K can think of. Particularly try to see if earlier visions might have been "less negative" than later ones.

[X] Be unconsciously affectionate toward Mami the entire time.

@The Narrator achieve a more effective presentation by being more inclusive of Oriko via well this.
 
You know, I just don't think emotional appealing is sensible here. Some people are more comfortable with, hm, impartial feeling and Oriko may or may not be such. She did react when we started poking holes in her logic, as opposed to stonewalling passionate speeches, so...

[X] Calm down, use more Logos than of Pathos, though Sabrina can't without the latter
[X] Remove privacy, go talk to Oriko, explain to her hypothesis, with emphasis on not being sure, of precogspiral aka feedback loop of death visions and subconscious belief in her death being necessary influencing visions.
-[X] Frame it all as discussing hypothesis with her instead of trying to convince her in your rightness.
-[X] Make sure the message gets across to Kirika

Something along those lines, maybe?
(and yes, this is basically shortened Kai's vote from previous vote)
 
If we get ourselves abducted by a spike-shelled dragon-turtle she'll learn how to.
Imagine Sabrina flailing her arms for help, ineffectually 'trying' to escape, and crying for Mami's help.

Everyone's like:

"What."

"What."

"Eh?"

"... The thing even feels like Grief. Come on, Sab-"

"Sabrina! I'll save you!"

*Jumps towards Bows THE MONSTER*


"MUAHAHAHA!"

*After waiting patiently with Brina in hand, finally runs away and escapes*


"SABRINA!"

*Gives chase*


"Oh, come on! She can't believe that was for real, right?"

"Sayaka?"

"Yeah?"

*Shipping goggles on*

"Shut up."


"..."
 
I've been trying to say we understand for ages. Because I do. There's a reason I'm the thread Oriko.
But there's a difference between us saying it and showing it. Maybe it's because I marathoned the quest recently but it just sorta seems like we apologise when we feel they need to hear it before going right back to pushing people towards what we want. Not so much in this case but generally speaking.
 
@The Narrator achieve a more effective presentation by being more inclusive of Oriko via well this.
If I'm understanding you correctly, you're asking me to put forth a vote of my own? Okay, then.


[x] Apologize to Oriko for the interruption and for losing your cool earlier. Remain calm and logical throughout the following discussion.
I don't see any reason to get rid of the privacy device. We can speak more freely if we don't have to worry about Kyubey overhearing.
[x] You're having trouble following Oriko's logic. Ask her to explain more clearly why she believes that her death is inevitable and will benefit the world. Press her for details.
It's hard to counter her claims when they're so irritatingly vague.
[x] Engage in rational debate with Oriko. Point out logical inconsistencies in her interpretations and facts that contradict her stated positions that her death is inevitable and that it will benefit the world. As needed and will be most effective, use the arguments against them that we've brought up in this very thread.
As I said before, when confronted about her desire to die, Oriko hides behind her excuses. She wants to believe that she's come to this conclusion through cold logic, that she is the Hard Meguca Making Hard Choices. Only by pointing out the flaws in that logic can she be made to face that the actual cause is emotional.
[x] If Oriko can eventually be made to question whether her insistence on her own demise is actually based in logic as she has previously insisted, inform her in a kind and empathetic manner that the pain and sadness that she has been experiencing since her father's death might have been subconsciously guiding her visions to only show her the most self-destructive options. That she may only be seeing her death because that's what she wants to see. That she has other options.
Precog spiral, as you've been putting it. Self-explanatory, I think.

I really should list out the dozen or so contradictions against Oriko's thesis that we've already established in the thread, just to be clear what kind of arsenal Sabrina has to pull from in this debate, but I should also really be in bed, so I'll put it off for later. (The only thing worse than having to pull overtime is having to pull overtime while sick.)
 
You could make any kind of logical argument to Oriko at this point and it wouldn't matter. She'll just ignore it. She's too entrenched in her mindset and we keep trying the same approach that failed the last two or three times we tried it.

Our approach is not working at the fundamental level.
 
Just throwing this out here, since I can't remember where it was, but I thoughtwe were trying to not get too cuddly with Mami for fear of sending the wrong message?
 
Our approach is not working at the fundamental level.
That's just it: I agree. And our approach, up until now, has been to appeal to her emotions. We've tried inspiring speeches and telling her how her death will affect someone who loves her. And appealing to her emotions has never worked. She has always hidden behind her excuses: "my death is inevitable" and "my death will benefit the world."

Take away those excuses. She tries to pretend that her decision to die is logical, and thus trumps any choice driven my emotion. Only by showing her the flaw in her logic can you make her listen to anything that you have to say. Otherwise it's just more shounen-esque appeals to emotion, and she'll ignore those the same way she always has: by hiding behind her excuses.
 
Problem with this is that she can still hide behind her excuses.

Well, thing is, we already noticed she stonewalls any emotional appeals and thus logical approach makes more sense. And, looking at the previous update, she seems to notice when her logic is shown to be not that logical, so that might work. Or make her into Mami 2.0: Limpet Harder. Or get stonewalled again. But still, pathos does not work at all, so trying again would only annoy everyone involved.
 
If we want to make some real progress with Oriko, we need to do something that her visions have shown her to be impossible. Like, convincing Homura to lift the house arrest, like she said earlier.

Problem being, well, obvious. We can't even ask Homu what would it take to let Oriko go free and get an useful answer. Homu wouldn't trust Oriko to be out of her control. Not even if we could take away all her magic.

Like, what if we ask Homu for a trial run? Allow O&K to go on a date one day for a few hours and come back on their own. And have Homu trail and spy on them for her own peace of mind.
 
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If we want to make some real progress with Oriko, we need to do something that her visions have shown her to be impossible. Like, convincing Homura to lift the house arrest, like she said earlier.

Problem being, well, obvious. We can't even ask Homu what would it take to let Oriko go free and get an useful answer. Homu wouldn't trust Oriko to be out of her control. Not even if we could take away all her magic.

Like, what if we ask Homu for a trial run? Allow O&K to go on a date one day for a few hours and come back on their own. And have Homu trail and spy on them for her own peace of mind.

Homu's trust in us is a bit meh at this point, I think?
Shouldn't we ask her whether it is possible to hunt Walps before she hits Mitakihara? I mean, both because we need the answer and to show her we are serious about helping and not just HALPING.
 
If we want to make some real progress with Oriko, we need to do something that her visions have shown her to be impossible.
Homu lifting house arrest isn't the only thing, just the hardest. Like, if they'd actually attacked us earlier like people were worrying, I would've voted to sit down, do nothing, and ask Mami to do the same.
 
Homu lifting house arrest isn't the only thing, just the hardest.
It's the kind of thing we need to do in order to make progress with Oriko.

Thoughts:

Oriko's put her faith in her powers, even though they've been shown to fail miserably in the past. Both when we hunted down Oriko and when 'Feathers' happened, Oriko's faith in her powers was shaken because what happened was 'impossible'. In a bad way.

If we want Oriko to accept that she can't hide behind her powers, we need to show her that we can make the impossible happen in a good way. Like convincing Homura to let her go. AFAIK, that's literally impossible going by her powers.

I don't think Oriko can let go of her faith in her powers because it's the only thing she's latched on; the fact her powers failed miserably twice in the past won't convince her because she's left with nothing. But if we manage to prove we can do the 'impossible' in a good way, then she could have something, and start letting go of that faith.
 
I really think it'd be foolish to continue ignoring Sayaka for very long... we've been kinda forgetting about her for a long time and it's coming across more and more that we don't like her. This will drive her away and cause us to lose control of the situation with her if left unchecked. If Sayaka doesn't feel she's got friends on her side, she'll start to act independently, and at cross purposes with us out of spite. Not to mention her poor track record for mental health.

If we don't at least telepathy her, it's gonna seem like we don't care. When she left all she answered us with were angry grunts and we just let her go. We really do need to show more concern. Can we check in with her via telepathy maybe? At least until we get an answer that isn't a grunt?
 
We pretty much got literally nothing else to say to Oriko after this, that she'll listen to.

Finish up and check on Sayaka afterwards. We were waiting to contact her after she had some time to cool down anyway. If anything, she might blow up at Kyouko a bit, but they shouldn't come to blows since Yuma is there to be the voice of reason.

Even if they come to blows, they actually have a good-ish reason for it; it's basically what we asked Kyouko to do.
 
I really think it'd be foolish to continue ignoring Sayaka for very long... we've been kinda forgetting about her for a long time and it's coming across more and more that we don't like her. This will drive her away and cause us to lose control of the situation with her if left unchecked. If Sayaka doesn't feel she's got friends on her side, she'll start to act independently, and at cross purposes with us out of spite. Not to mention her poor track record for mental health.

If we don't at least telepathy her, it's gonna seem like we don't care. When she left all she answered us with were angry grunts and we just let her go. We really do need to show more concern. Can we check in with her via telepathy maybe? At least until we get an answer that isn't a grunt?

Gadjo she asked us for time to think this is not the time to say "hi so i see you're talking to Kyouko"

Yes we should absolutely talk to her

We have no fucking reason to know what she's doing right now except Homu trailed her without her knowledge.

We should talk to her but not now

Tomorrow morning following waking up at the latest we should have a telepathy convo with her

Maybe late tonight

But not now, give her a couple hours. If Yuma is involved in the conversation Kyouko feels Sayaka is safe. If they're talking then probably KokoYuma are actually doing well by her because Yuma will fluffily eviscerate any Koko attempts at antagonizing Saya. I would suggest we telepathy Koko in 30m say we heard Sayaka ran into her and ask if Sayaka is doing alright. If Koko replies negative then we freak out. Otherwise? I think we gud
 
I've said it beforee, I'll say it again: We need Familiars. We could have one recording Kyouko and Sayaka's first date meeting as we speak.

We'd need to get the "doesn't scream "Witch"" bit down too, of course, but...*shrugs*

Anyway, as SCIENCE! is possibly faster (?) with company, I've been trying to figure out someone we could do Witchy Science with--someone who might not finally get past her mental blindspot and Witchbomb herself, I mean. That reduces options to Oriko, Homura, and Kyubey.

Oriko...would be really interesting to work with, actually, but OriKiri usually comes as a complete set (and getting Kirika to leave her Ojou at home is much easier than getting her to stay home while her Ojou isn't as safe as absolutely possible). Then again, I doubt the Witchbomb would bother Kirika. Greater concern would be her Witching Out for superpowers, as she did in Oriko Magica.

Homura will be a solid Science partner...if we can get her into it. The problem is that she probably considers herself in peak condition for combat. Time Stop extends our time to work to infinity, and will let us micromanage our actions more due to narrative time dilation.

Really, I think she needs more magical attack options, in case Walpurgisnacht is resistant to mundane attacks, as has been suspected. I'm not sure she'll be convinced, though. Maybe if we get her a Clear Seed and some tape...oh! We should help her add a Clear Seed item slot to her Magical Girl Outfit, such that it remains in contact with her Soul Gem while still looking stylish. Then she doesn't need to worry about energy efficiency and can throw magic around casually. We should get the other Quintet (Sextet, now? Septet, with Yuma? Nonet if we get OriKiri in the team properly...) members to do the same actually. Clear Seeds can be their mid-season powerup! Oh hell, we really are a sixth ranger, huh?)

Kyubey...*sighs*...Kyubey would be a really good Science partner. He'd probably actually be interested, he probably has studied Witches quite a lot over the millenia, he's decent company until you remember he's literally and metaphorically heartless, and we literally cannot accidentally traumatize him by accident. Problem is that working with him opens us to betrayal...maybe if we wrote out a contract about conduct during cooperative research, he'd abide by it? He takes his twisted ethics pretty seriously. Other problem with this is that our collective feelings on Kyubey range from "he's not evil because he can't meet the criteria, but he's still a threat" to "Incubator genocide sounds good--Evil bastards are a blight upon the universe," with only a very few outliers. Even if we could bring ourselves to work with him on something, I give it 2 updates before our dislike bubbles over strongly enough for Sabrina to either kill him or get too upset to Science! properly. Also, he might actually want to do science rather than SCIENCE!, which would be smart but boring. Oh, and Mami would freak out, as would Homura.

So, yeah, I think Homura's our best bet. Worst case scenario, we bribe her with 3d-Printed Madoka Paraphenelia.
 
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Soulguca, too, once she gets here.
This is a very good idea, and I strongly approve. I really hope she's a person we can befriend...or Befriend, if all else fails.

We really need to figure out how Nanoha does that. Maybe Soulguca knows...some kind of forced spiritual resonance or something?

Maybe it's just bypassing the hedgehog's dilemna by blowing a hole in their spiritual boundaries, allowing empathy-by-firepower. :V
 
See, Higure, you have to have pzazz when you push these things. Don't call it Familiar Science. Call it... Synergistic Multilocational Social Science.
 
Gadjo she asked us for time to think this is not the time to say "hi so i see you're talking to Kyouko"

Yes we should absolutely talk to her

We have no fucking reason to know what she's doing right now except Homu trailed her without her knowledge.

We should talk to her but not now

Tomorrow morning following waking up at the latest we should have a telepathy convo with her

Maybe late tonight

But not now, give her a couple hours. If Yuma is involved in the conversation Kyouko feels Sayaka is safe. If they're talking then probably KokoYuma are actually doing well by her because Yuma will fluffily eviscerate any Koko attempts at antagonizing Saya. I would suggest we telepathy Koko in 30m say we heard Sayaka ran into her and ask if Sayaka is doing alright. If Koko replies negative then we freak out. Otherwise? I think we gud
And when Sayaka demands time to think and runs off alone she does stupid shit. Not showing me more concern kind of implies we were annoyed with her and really not bothered to see her go. Oh well, I haven't got the force of will to drag an argument down to the mud right now, but I suppose I'll just go on the record as protesting maintaining radio silence with a friend who ran off distressed and barely gave us an answer other than unintelligible grunting. Especially when that friend is literally as calm and level headed as Sayaka. Can't think of a better simile for being unreasonable and angry.
 
And when Sayaka demands time to think and runs off alone she does stupid shit. Not showing me more concern kind of implies we were annoyed with her and really not bothered to see her go. Oh well, I haven't got the force of will to drag an argument down to the mud right now, but I suppose I'll just go on the record as protesting maintaining radio silence with a friend who ran off distressed and barely gave us an answer other than unintelligible grunting. Especially when that friend is literally as calm and level headed as Sayaka. Can't think of a better simile for being unreasonable and angry.

You sound like Ugo, only he and I already talked about this exact thing and he was much less gloom-and-mud.

Sayaka is safe in the short term. We will check on her periodically, either directly by telepathying her or indirectly by telepathying others and/or having others telepathy her. We are concerned about her, but she is temporarily in good hands with Kyouko and it's probably been less than twenty minutes IC since she left!

We are concerned about her. We are going to act on that concern. I think we could telepathy Kyouko this vote asking if we missed a message from her, tearing down the privacy device will let us receive any future messages from her, we will confirm Sayaka is not doing something too stupid later tonight as well, we will not go to sleep before we know she's not out and about anymore, etc.

But not so soon and not so direct.
 
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