I'm pretty sure the number either represents the usefulness of the predictions, or the intensity of them, since the only other time AN has given a number for a prediction was when we perfectly predicted and were able to take advantage of the Doom Comet to take over the Thunder Twins.

Also, this crisis in general shows once again that mechanics lie to us, since Western Wall was at max loyalty for literal centuries and now constantly threaten us with civil war every turn while enabling an asshole breakaway state. I'm ashamed tbh.
I couldn't find a number so you may be misremembering? I dunno.

*shrug* with 5 predictions, each with a number, we can get some data. Maybe we will see a pattern.
 
Anyway the prediction itself is a good warning, since for several people it is an opportune moment to strike. The HK could really fuck us up if they poked their noses into our business, Freehills might actually have a chance at Trelli, the Pirate King gets a lot out of Trelli, and we might technically be able to take the city but we may not survive the following events.
I actually want Highland kingdom to attack us, they're an enemy that there's likely a huge amount of tales of their underhanded tactics and opportunism, combined with second sons looking for glory it would easily get all the trouble makers joining in our army waiting for orders.
 
Triangle Canal - Could feed the Not!Black Sea and Redshore/Sacred Forest.
Gullvalley Canal - Greater access to Khemetri, especially their grain export.
Lowland Canal - Access to Lowland grain market, especially rice from the Hamurri. We use that to feed valleyhome, otherwise you would be look at transportation issue in getting food from the Black Sea unless we construct the canal that required modern technology or shit ton of manpower.

Actually, rice production should yield more calories per acre versus wheat(until we get maize). We should ask the Hamurri on how to cultivate rice while we teach them boatbuilding.

The Hamurri can then get started on trade in the Indian ocean while we grow more food to feed our very hungry cities.
 
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We chose admin kings twice in a row to choose actions that will benefit us because they can see problems that we can't. It turned out to not be enough and that we wasted a King because we thought going to war with the Trelli was a good idea.
As I recall, said Admin Genius also had a shit Martial.
 
I love how AN has been gently pushing us towards canals for at least hundreds of pages by now, and whenever other people mention it, a lot of us are still like "Well that's just your opinion I guess" :rofl:
 
Hmm. I'm getting pretty sold on this "canal" thing.


Well, internal transportation canals, anyway. I'm still not interested in the Khem Trade canal or the Triangle Canal. Important as they are, both trade and agriculture aren't really the seams that our polity is coming apart around; that would be administration and culture.

Ironically, our vassals are currently not the problems, but our colonies are, and they are on a sea, which means interconnectivity and administration should be a lot higher.

However, we don't have enough boats or boats to facilitate something like integration.

But if you build up the canals, suddenly we have a lot more demand for boats and there's less incentive to break away because they will be dependent on our grain supply.

I love how AN has been gently pushing us towards canals for at least hundreds of pages by now, and whenever other people mention it, a lot of us are still like "Well that's just your opinion I guess" :rofl:

I was unable to convince @PrimalShadow and others about the benefit of the canal until AN said so.
 
I was unable to convince @PrimalShadow and others about the benefit of the canal until AN said so.
Don't be so hard on yourself. You made convincing points; I just wasn't convinced that it was higher priority than roads, was realistic about our (in)ability to implement both anytime soon. AN's recent post about bulk transport being our biggest hangup is just the capstone that makes everything come together.
 
In hindsight, I can understand why canals and river/sea based transport is so superior to even the best roads.
Most people can't afford horses, and carriages are likely expensive and rather slow from the fact that the horse has to carry a large amount of goods with it.

Rivers and canals can let boats, which can carry a ton of cargo/people comparatively cheaper and faster than horse-drawn alternatives, become the dominant way of transportation, and lets our people move from place to place with much greater ease.

Until we get railroads or something equivalent, boats are going to be the best means of transportation.
 
@Academia Nut Which canal projects will provide us the most benefit?

I am thinking Lowland Dam+Canal. We get benefit faster from building a Dam with less cost and the lowland canal should be cheaper to construct than the Triangle Canal which will be 24-33 econ and 8-11 tech.
 
Now that canal looks next in line, does the dam come off the waiting list as second or is there another project we want to put as second? :V Also, triangle canal or lowland canal first?
 
Now that canal looks next in line, does the dam come off the waiting list as second or is there another project we want to put as second? :V Also, triangle canal or lowland canal first?

It's hard to tell if the triangle canal provides more benefit than the Dam+canal.

But at the same time, we may prefer a payout ASAP, which the dam might do for with just 4 main actions. Then we can get started on the lowland canal.
 
We were the assholes who put a straw on their back.
And then made this sucking motion.
They seem to be sort of using that, but the issue is that they started out as a bunch of assholes who went out and knocked over the leadership of local tribes. Right now they are a somewhat fractious group of petty kings who are congealing into a larger overstructure, basing some of their stuff on the way things were done back home, but with far less central control.

They are probably going to be vassalized by the Storm Tribes, providing a direct pipeline for the People's technology to steppe tribes.
Figured as much. Key elements are Cavalry(the charioteers going probably brought our horses along and gave their breeding programs a couple of centuries kick), Case Hardening and Pattern Welding(ambitious smiths looking for their big break, but lacking the hammer mills to do so on a large scale barring luck). A lot of the other techs can't be effectively transferred without a cultural or infrastructure change.

We'd probably be fine. The steppe bordering civilizations are going to be going ;_; Whyyyyy though

Suppress Faction[Traders] negates the civil war, because the Traders are suppressible.

It doesn't, because we don't have enough Stability to suppress them safely...

You make the mistake of thinking that invading Trelli is a guarantee of no civil war. It isn't. If we fail to conquer Trelli, the Trader mission will fail and we will be plunged into civil war.

Yes, it's a risk, but look:

Western Ymaryn are too far away and will not be participating. Freehills probably doesn't have the strength, but they are the closest organized group, so they probably have the best chance of current possible competitors.

Freehills actually has a chance. Yes, the tiny micronation of escaped slaves with less than a century of military experience and development.



You're getting the prediction from the Study Stars action this turn, but that's not what it means. It means that every time you get a prediction for the next five turns you get the roll number.

This turn's prediction is "Now is an opportune moment to strike" (38)

And the Prediction says now is the best time to strike.

So current factors in favor of attacking Trell:
-Divination on an average roll(which is unlikely to spur us to a suicidal course of action) says this is the time to strike. Strike WHAT is unclear...but there's only two things to strike and one is a civil war, which AN had also said is too little too late.

-Pirate Hero is moving West. He is likely to become an irrelevant footnote unless he takes some kind of naval infrastructure. Like Trell's Grand Docks.

-Word of AN is that the best chances of taking Trell are Ymaryn > Freehills > Pirate King. Western Ymaryn will not be participating. Khemetri will not be participating.

-We have naval superiority. The Pirate Hero escaped annihilation purely because he's a Hero. Yes, even at our current levels of Martial, we outgun him.

-We do not have enough Stability to Suppress the Traders. We are more likely to successfully attack Trell than to avoid imploding from Stability.

-This was the exact same circumstances that AN had said we should have taken in the Trelli war previously. Go straight for the city before they knew there was an attacker, land our Banners and then nobody's going to be taking the city from the Banners behind Trell walls.

It's almost like AN is dropping large hints.
It is absolutely bizarre to me. What exactly are our passive policies thinking, for them to keep building GPs and Aqueducts everywhere instead of the thing that gives us income?

I expect it to get simultaneously better and worse with the new projects, though. Better, because I think we are getting a project that reduces Panem costs (which effectively provides income) - and our provinces are likely to take it. Worse, because - well, they still aren't going to be building Salterns, are they?
Because as we've seen, disease is becoming more and more of a problem. The passive policies address social needs. We've been flush with wealth for centuries IC, they see no reason we'd need more money.

We've also been struck by disease and plagues for the same timespan.
Why WOULD they build Salterns compared to health infrastructure?
 
Because as we've seen, disease is becoming more and more of a problem.
Don't extrapolate from one data point.

Also, most of the actions I'm complaining about were pre-plague, so even if such a reaction makes sense now it didn't make sense then.

but there's only two things to strike and one is a civil war, which AN had also said is too little too late.
You are forgetting the war WY is fighting that we could probably join.
 
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-We have naval superiority. The Pirate Hero escaped annihilation purely because he's a Hero. Yes, even at our current levels of Martial, we outgun him.

Speaking of irritating, I want to know what the heck the pirates rolls have been. We seem to have failed to locate them with sailing missions multiple times, then they spawned the first naval hero we've ever seen!
 
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