Can't find plagues in particular, but here are numerous mentions of disease:
None that are especially recent, but if anything that would suggest we were doing BETTER at handling it in recent years, not worse.
Paths of Civilization
- Thread starter Academia Nut
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- Original
None that are especially recent, but if anything that would suggest we were doing BETTER at handling it in recent years, not worse.
- Location
- Voidbetweenstars
We get less information with low centralization, we likely haven't heard anything until it does blow up in our faces at this point, while in the past our high centralization gives us a lot of information about everything that is going on.
- Location
- United States
I think AN mentioned that we actually have super good disease resistance with the aqueducts and baths patrolled by shamans for cleanliness, but the fact that we had so many cities in the core, creating a stupidly high population density, cause the compounded disease checks to overpower our disease resistance.
In case you've not been tracking things, we've gone from:
-Plague is not a problem, just quarantine and prepare more food.
-Plague is a small problem. Lose 1 Stability, lose lose baby boom/population explosion, but it's dealt with.
-Plague is kind of a problem, but luckily Redshore caught fire and it ended before it got anywhere. Lose 1 Stability.
-Plague is a big problem. Half our major cities are depopulated.
It's been one of the issues building up because we've been riding centuries of population explosion, urbanization and growth. It's not one data point, we've had mentions that the cities are disease ridden, even if it never got bad enough to hit the stat sheet.
Heck, the current plague problem? Quite indicative that we can solve it with 2 Baths isn't it(which neatly brings our bath coverage to 100% for standing cities)? It's not a new disease. It's the sort of disease
1) The Trelli navy broke that same turn.
2) The Pirate King may not necessarily HAVE a Naval score. We know you can't have a naval score without pitched, large ships, and the only places he can get those are Trell or Redshore.
3) Freehills, despite having basically no military or navy of note, has a chance to take Trell.
4) Remember again even before we had a Naval score, AN had mentioned that unless there was a defensive blockade, we could have shipped the Banners into Trell via War Catamarans before anyone even knew we were at war. We can deploy an army across the Black Sea within a week if theres no organized resistance.
5) The Storm Tribes are both far away and on the land route, we're even less capable of striking them than we can strike at Trell. To elaborate, you're talking about several weeks over steppe or months of travel over mountains, compared to a 3 day sail.
We are at Stability -1.
This means we can only take 2 points of Stability hits, regardless of Stability gains.
The Second Son crisis inflicts 1 Stability hit per turn.
Suppressing the Traders inflict 1 Stability hit.
Trelli collapse will generate at least 1 Stability worth of refugees.
So as such we basically have to choose to:
-Follow the Second Sons into a war with a Nomad Martial Hero over harsh terrain
-Take Trell in the mid turn before anyone even realizes whats going on. For best chances, we have to take it by the mid-turn with the Banners.
Either of these would spare us 1 Stability, which would prevent order of execution death. And even if we don't actually HIT -4 Stability, even briefly touching -3 Stability would be extremely dangerous if it spawns another crisis.
BungieONI
Seven gremlins in a trench coat
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- Lickwidget
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Hmm? Are you sure you've kept track of the timing correctly?
We won't be taking these until the main turn two updates from now going off past examples. The actual mid turn comes next so we should have an option to do a Main Enforce Justice, before we have to think about suppressing the Traders or Second Son crisis.
I agree though that -3 is exceptionally dangerous. Its why I want to go for the smallest level of Stability for the refugees.
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We haven't had our Mid-Turn yet. We're almost certain to get the option to [React] and either Enforce Justice (for Stab + Cent) or Proclaim Glory (lots of Stab) for additional Stability.
I think the Trelli decision will be on a separate action track. We'll probably get some decisions like:
1) Suppress the Traders
2) War Mission to Trelli to seize the city for ourselves
3) Make a Deal with the Pirate King to restore order in exchange for becoming a vassal or the restoration of order
4) Intervene in support of what's left of Trelli's government
Fine. I could argue against these examples in particular but then we would be getting into debates about something I don't really care about. Instead, I'll drop that approach and instead show some simple math to demonstrate my point.
Lets say we have two hypotheses. In hypothesis A, we are no more susceptible to disease than we were before; in hypothesis B, we are TWICE more susceptible. A major difference, I think.
Now, lets say we start off trusting teh two hypotheses equally; they are in a 1:1 ratio.
Now, imagine we get a plague. Clearly this is evidence for hypothesis B, right? And so it is! The plague was twice more likely under Hypothesis B than A, which means that we should multiply our odds ratio by 1:2 (this is just the odds formulation of Bayes theorem, BTW), which puts us at 1:2 total. Great; you've gone from thinking that hypothesis B is 50% likely to thinking it is 67% likely. An improvement, certainly - but also CLEARLY not one you would bet the farm on, so to speak.
In practice, the plague is at best a weak indication of our proclivity to have plagues. It is quite likely that we just rolled the dice and got a bad result. Certainly, the case for us having disease problems is greater than it was pre-plague, but only slightly so; that is how the math works.
That's fine. I'm amenable to arguments of this sort. I just disagree with you using the current plague as a remotely strong indicator.
- Location
- Australia
@veekie, if you're going to attack Trelli, send a Secondary War Mission and put no other actions into it. We have Mercenary Companies to provide the additional Martial and War Missions required. Instead, put the spare action we'll get into Enforce Justice, Suppress Yeomen, or Expand Economy.
Risky. Remember that the war with Trelli is effectively war of survival for us if we don't supress the traders.
Although, I guess maybe it is a question of timing. Do we have until the end of the turn for the quest to complete, or does it have to be finished by midturn? In the former case, we could probably do a last-minute suppress as our reaction if it came down to it...
Theres also random hits. We've been eating those lately too.
Well yes. The Banners do most of the work. Though I think doing it as one of our Reacts in the mid turn has the best result before anyone realizes they need to interdict the Trell harbor.
...and it gives us the main turn to suppress the traders if it flops.
Why is it necessary to surpass the yeomen? If we surpass, we lose a stability point and then lose -2 econ. If we don't surpass, we lose 2 econ and don't lose stability.
Agreed. The reasoning is flawed but the conclusion is still correct- we had too many cities applying diease roll debuffs to the point that we were more vulnerable than our neighbors despite our heavy focus on sanitation.
Or we could just not Suppress them and instead raise our Centralization and work on the reforms.
- Location
- Voidbetweenstars
Cause with the crushing of the traders and Yeomen we might spark a communist revolution and bring about utopia.
VoidZero
Passing Flan 布丁魔王
- Location
- Anywhere but RL
Cloudy with chances of unreliable astro predictions.
Something something trying to solve Second Son crisis during other crisis.
It says:
I think that AN's ruled before that we don't actually fail when the quest iterates to 0, we've just hit the limit of how much longer we can wait. We instead fail after it goes past that point. I believe that we should be good until the Mid-Turn of next turn; the next Mid-Turn will reduce the counter to zero, though.
Suppressing the Yeoman is one of the ways to end this crisis. Given all the bullshit it's caused us to lose, it's tempting to try and end it as soon as possible.
If we do PSN [Main] Expand Econ, we will be running dangerously low on LTE available in order to Expand Econ next turn.
We currently have 19[+6] and we're going to lose at least 4 to Refugees. 8 (likely) more from from PSN, and our Provinces will take a [Main] Expand Econ during the next turn. We'd only have 5 Expand Econ at most actually available during the next turn, everything else is spoken for. If we take more refugees (which I strongly recommend - we need everything we can in order to climb out of our current hole) then we won't be able to afford it. We'll have to go with Build Mills if we want more Econ.
Completely eliminating our EE is a huge risk as this point; it would like exacerbate the Second Sons crisis. I want some buffer so we can be flexible if need be. Some extra LTE would be really helpful at this point if we lose enough Wealth that we get forced to plant cash crops in order for the Guilds not to freak out at us.
Taking Max refugees, incidentally, would also put us at minimum 22 Econ next turn, potentially up to 24. We'd be within striking distance of finishing the Priests' quest and getting an extra spiritual value slot. Given how momentous the collapse of Trelli is, I'd think that getting the max of 11 Econ from it would be fairly likely. Even if it's not, we would almost certainly get 24 by next Mid-Turn.
It's literally not possible to solve the Second Sons quest without Suppressing the yeoman at this point. We can't get our Martial low enough because our Free Cities 'helpfully' use the Armament policy (+1 Martial each) whenever we get to low.
Our only known solutions currently would be to Max Centralization and Suppress the yeoman. There currently exists no other solution to this crisis, at least until we've finished the M-Reforms. I'd much rather have the Second Sons done by then since I think the M-Reforms will take a few turns.
- Location
- Australia
I mentioned that as one of the things we could do. Read more.
Perhaps I should rephrase:
We should focus all our efforts on
1) Not Dying
2) Solving the problem ASAP.
You listed Suppress, Enforce, and Expand Econ. I say that the Suppress should instead be just more Enforce, at least until we hit our Centralization cap.
- Location
- Australia
I agree.
Do they still suck us dry if WY got vassalized?
Shard
One and Many
- Location
- Malaysia
I believe we may have forgotten, but Centralization counts against Natural Disasters.
Otw known as ROADS.
Actually a double edged sword. Roads make it easier and faster to transmit disease.
Shard
One and Many
- Location
- Malaysia
They help against all other natural disasters quite well, though.
- Location
- Voidbetweenstars
And boats don't?