Feedback is welcome.

One thing I want to touch on is the likelihood of death that you estimated here. It's been mentioned before that it's likely that it's only the top percentile of talent that manage to survive active to jonin. Despite this, our demographics treat death as though it is completely random, and promotion comes to those that merely manage to outlast the rest of their cohort. A 10 XP per day Academy prodigy is no more likely to reach Chunin than a 1 XP per day dullard. Yet keeping your contextualisation in mind, the numbers start to make more sense. It's not that the prodigy and the genius have equal chances of surviving, in order for either newly minted genin to reach chunin they need to reach a level of strength, which their respective XP-rates will take different amounts of times for. The increased time for the dullard means more more missions taken, more proverbial rolls of the dice, and a greater likelihood of death.

My understanding is that the major clans produce very few genin each year relative to the clanless, who produce probably half of the total genin population since 1% of civilian kids are born ninja and ninja are 1% of the population but have ninja kids much more often, and the various minor clans who don't have the same degree of clout.
Lastly, I just want to mention that our established Leaf demographics from IV already estimate the number of clanless genin, which is pegged at 415. Furthermore, I did estimate the clanless/clan genin intake per year, which I'll link here. In short, there's 122 clanless genin graduating each year, and each individual clan is dwarfed, but assuming the 1/3 clanless rule holds true, they should still be outnumbered.
 
It's not that the prodigy and the genius have equal chances of surviving, in order for either newly minted genin to reach chunin they need to reach a level of strength, which their respective XP-rates will take different amounts of times for. The increased time for the dullard means more more missions taken, more proverbial rolls of the dice, and a greater likelihood of death.

...

In short, there's 122 clanless genin graduating each year, and each individual clan is dwarfed, but assuming the 1/3 clanless rule holds true, they should still be outnumbered.
For the first bit, I agree. It's convenient for my modeling that the ninja ranks are a measure of power and pyramid milestones rather than strictly time spent or the like. Higher XP rates have a higher chance to survive individually, although once you reach the point that you start hitting stagnancy barriers more often than your mission rates are naturally unstagnating you anyway it stops being as beneficial. For genin, even with 10 XP/day you probably unstagnate nearly every time you have to fight a chakra beast, so you can pick extermination missions more often and so C-rank missions will keep you in the clear since you only need to unstagnate every 50 days. A 10 XP/day genin only needs 443 days. In theory, the first year is safe, but they need to unstagnate. 78 days are dangerous. With 7.3ish stagnancy barriers during the safe year plus 7.4 missions during the last few months of weekly-ish C-rank missions, that results in ~15 C-rank missions, which gives... almost exactly a 86% chance of survival if you assume that Talented McGenin is exactly as vulnerable as their peers- realistically it's probably much higher than 86% since a talented genin is probably getting a sensei and seals to use one way or another. When you hit chunin and your statistically-average-rando chunin peers only need to unstagnate with B-rank missions every 400 days as opposed to you needing it every 100 days (assuming both of you have secondary domains that can be unstagnated without risking physical death), the problems begin.

And I appreciate the demographic info, ty.

EDIT: remembered genin have a 1-year grace period
 
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PONWOG from Paper on Discord about how often genin take C-ranks and the purpose of D-rank missions being a formalized thing that the ninja do. It makes sense as a period to get to know your teammates and not rely on literal prepubescent children to kill chakra beasts.

Also I remembered why I originally got on this topic- I was considering what the Goketsu seal supply does for genin survival and the topic of weak chakra beasts and C-rank missions came up before we got onto their payouts. Weak chakra beasts have skills below 30 and a fresh graduate has combat skills in the 20s, so the worst case is a team of three unsupervised genin against one chakra beast with 29s. (The worst case is actually the genin having to face a swarm of beasts or an unusually strong opponent but that's outside normal bounds.) Explosive tags are TN 40 and reliably kill/deter most chakra beasts, so the problem is getting to use them. If the beast wins Alertness, it attacks a genin. The genin rolls 20+3 (boost)+5 (Substitution), and the beast rolls 29+3 (boost) since chakra beasts generally don't have powers fancier than a regular attack jutsu (and one with a scary power would be an unusually strong opponent as defined earlier). The worst possible case is a -12/+12, for a 16 vs a 44, a difference of 28 resulting in 9 shifts and 9 Stress. A Mild, Moderate, and Major consequence ablate 2+3+4 = 9 Stress, which means that even in this case the genin survives long enough for the team to apply explosive tags and win anyway.

Getting home might be tricky but it's enough to demonstrate how impactful explosive tags alone are for genin and I think the other big thing would be chakdar or something else that boosts Alertness/enemy detection well enough to avoid particularly dangerous fights ahead of time. What would have to happen for us to be willing to distribute chakdar widely? Pax Konoha or similar, maybe, but I note that a massive improvement in genin becoming chunin would be a nice boost to Konoha's ability to impose a Pax Konoha in the first place.
 
Wow, I find this interlude really amusing and actually pretty interesting. I almost wish it were real, although I realize meta stuff like this can get a little... iffy, to write.
Paraphrased from QM chat:

Time=X. EJ: Have to say, I'm sure that Tomorrow!EJ 45-minutes-from-now!EJ will disagree with this, but having all the characters able to see their own character sheets sounds super fun and kinda funny. (edited)

Time=X+45minutes. Velorien: I think Current!EJ may be underestimating how many spoons would be involved in tracking optimization efforts by dozens of different ninja.



We should get Mari to regularly TLITF us so that we can give her orders and have her erase our memories of giving them.
Price.

The superchiller doesn't cool the ground and the ground contains plenty of energy to boil the liquid air -- over the course of hours.
Correct. Expanding on that for the sake of completeness and pedantry: assuming it duplicates the Elemental Mastery effect, the superchiller magically cools the air which then thermodynamically cools the ground.



EDIT: Holy wow. A bunch of stuff ninja'd in when I posted this. @DanZapman , that was a phenomenal effortpost and I look forward to reading/reacting in more depth tomrrow.
 
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@eaglejarl @Paperclipped @Velorien Question. The Biosealer stunt claims to require teaching over the course of 3-6 months of dedicated study, according to the original Informational post, though this is not replicated in the Known Stunts document. However, the Earth Infusion stunt doesn't list a time requirement, and nor does Minatosealing (and indeed Oro was able to learn Earth Infusion in less than a month) despite PS being more distant from Sealing than biosealing is (as evidenced by BS being halfcost under Sealing while PS isn't). Is the requirement for 3-6 months of teaching outdated (and changed to just "someone to teach you or equivalent" as with the other styles) or does Hazō think biosealing is particularly difficult to learn?
 
Shadow Clone.

(and if they transfer it we'll damned well make a rune that stops that.)
We'd probably need to learn Genjutsu, in addition to TLitF if we wanted to make a Rune that specifically stops the brain damage from transferring.

IIRC, the QMs told us, back when we were exploring the Dragon's Roar Rune, that mental effects would require Hazou to have a grounding in genjutsu.
 
IIRC, the QMs told us, back when we were exploring the Dragon's Roar Rune, that mental effects would require Hazou to have a grounding in genjutsu.
I really don't see why, tbh. Creating optical effects (a telescope) does not require a grounding in optics; creating sound effects does not require a grounding in acoustics; creating chakra effects (e. g. the jutsu-eater rune) does not require a grounding in technique hacking (and we don't seem to have gotten any bonuses for having it); creating interdimensional effects (rift stuff) does not require a grounding in Summoning (and we don't seem to have gotten any bonuses for having it). Why would creating mental effects require a grounding in the corresponding discipline? It's not as if we're trying to create genjutsu-based seals.

I guess it's possible that, like, creating seals involves writing code in some high-level language that gets passed to a chakra-based interpreter as an intermediary step, and the commands that instruct chakra to interface with human minds are kept as a separate library which you don't learn in a basic Sealing curriculum, they're only taught to genjutsu specs by default. But then why would that be the case, why wouldn't they be part of the usual curriculum? And, again, TH doesn't seem to help with jutsu-interacting seals, so I would've expected there to be no overlap between genjutsu creation and mental-effect seals as well; for those to use completely separate APIs.
 
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Shadow Clone.

(and if they transfer it we'll damned well make a rune that stops that.)
Oh, another concern: sealing requires making imperfect prototypes. This is also the case with Runecrafting, as we saw with the Time Rune research.

So Mari would be inflicting the side effects of TLitF upon herself every day we researched the rune, up until we made a complete version... and that's discounting whatever potentially harmful side effects an imperfect SC-related Rune might have, when combined with TLitF.
 
Oh, another concern: sealing requires making imperfect prototypes. This is also the case with Runecrafting, as we saw with the Time Rune research.

So Mari would be inflicting the side effects of TLitF upon herself every day we researched the rune, up until we made a complete version... and that's discounting whatever potentially harmful side effects an imperfect SC-related Rune might have, when combined with TLitF.
Or we could just make it block all the effects of shadow clone. That's easy enough to test.
 
Easier to test, but it would still run afoul of the "needs genjutsu" requirement, since you're dealing with mental effects.
I feel like at the point you're construing mental effects that hard you can just call any random attack a mental effect because it involves chakra and molding chakra is a mental effect :p
 
I really don't see why, tbh. Creating optical effects (a telescope) does not require a grounding in optics; creating sound effects does not require a grounding in acoustics; creating chakra effects (e. g. the jutsu-eater rune) does not require a grounding in technique hacking (and we don't seem to have gotten any bonuses for having it); creating interdimensional effects (rift stuff) does not require a grounding in Summoning (and we don't seem to have gotten any bonuses for having it). Why would creating mental effects require a grounding in the corresponding discipline? It's not as if we're trying to create genjutsu-based seals.
You are a physicist. You can apply your understanding of the laws of physics to make devices that bend light, generate sound, manipulate energy, and (generously speaking) influence space-time. Does this understanding allow you, with no other professional training, to build devices that modify the function of the human body or devices that influence the inner workings of the mind?
 
I feel like at the point you're construing mental effects that hard you can just call any random attack a mental effect because it involves chakra and molding chakra is a mental effect :p
Ah, the age old "does sealing use chakra or the Out?" debacle:V

But yeah, Sealing as an art is blackboxed from we-the-playerbase, and we've been told by the QMs that if Hazou wants to cause a mental affect using Runes or Seals, then that would require Hazou to learn genjutsu, beforehand. Similar to how he needed a grounding in Mednin before he could start on replicating the Chakra Pool's effects.

"Blocking memory transfer" sounds like a mental affect, since it involves the mind: namely, memory.

Maybe there's an argument to be made about Medknow or Mednin, since memory involves the brain? But at that point, though, I'd take it up with the QMs and request an additional ruling.
 
Ah, the age old "does sealing use chakra or the Out?" debacle:V

But yeah, Sealing as an art is blackboxed from we-the-playerbase, and we've been told by the QMs that if Hazou wants to cause a mental affect using Runes or Seals, then that would require Hazou to learn genjutsu, beforehand. Similar to how he needed a grounding in Mednin before he could start on replicating the Chakra Pool's effects.

"Blocking memory transfer" sounds like a mental affect, since it involves the mind: namely, memory.

Maybe there's an argument to be made about Medknow or Mednin, since memory involves the brain? But at that point, though, I'd take it up with the QMs and request an additional ruling.
I think the point @Cariyaga is making is that you don't need to understand how the transferred memory is integrated to block the transfer. Analogy: preventing a specific file from being transferred from one computer to another across a data cable requires understanding how the files are encoded/how the transfer works/etc., but to stop every file from being transferred, all you need to do is cut the cable.
 
I think the point @Cariyaga is making is that you don't need to understand how the transferred memory is integrated to block the transfer. Analogy: preventing a specific file from being transferred from one computer to another across a data cable requires understanding how the files are encoded/how the transfer works/etc., but to stop every file from being transferred, all you need to do is cut the cable.
And my argument is that you need a grounding in how safely interact with the software at all (genjutsu), unless you want your rune to have nasty, unforeseen side effects.

Maybe Hazou can do research into SC's memory transfer, using his capacity as a THer and a high level seal/runemaster to explore the exact mechanics of Shadow Clone, but I remain skeptical.

That said, even though I don't think it'd go anywhere, I'd be willing to toss some FP at a difficulty check for it. It's only 10xp to buy a FP, after all.

That said, Chakra Runes are far higher on my priority list, and I would need a precommitment into researching those, first, before I lent the difficulty check my vote.
 
And my argument is that you need a grounding in how safely interact with the software at all (genjutsu), unless you want your rune to have nasty, unforeseen side effects.

Maybe Hazou can do research into SC's memory transfer, using his capacity as a THer and a high level seal/runemaster to explore the exact mechanics of Shadow Clone, but I remain skeptical.

That said, even though I don't think it'd go anywhere, I'd be willing to toss some FP at a difficulty check for it. It's only 10xp to buy a FP, after all.

That said, Chakra Runes are far higher on my priority list, and I would need a precommitment into researching those, first, before I lent the difficulty check my vote.
Seems like an incredibly minor benefit to me. Definitely not worth researching compared to our other stuff.
 
Seems like an incredibly minor benefit to me. Definitely not worth researching compared to our other stuff.
Given that Mari's able to use TLitF's stunlocking feature without paying the "price" of the memory-eating aspect of the genjutsu, I'm inclined to agree. TLitF's memory eating feature is amazing if you're a social spec in a social combat setting (basically allows you to redo conversations, or get your intel and then delete the memory of them spilling the details), but in a direct combat setting, its stunlocking feature is more important.

That said, If there's a big push for it, I'm willing to at least spend a difficulty check on it, but I'm skeptical that the results would be promising. And, even if the results were viable, I'd still want to put Chakra Runes above it. I want Chakra Runes asap.
 
And my argument is that you need a grounding in how safely interact with the software at all (genjutsu), unless you want your rune to have nasty, unforeseen side effects.

Maybe Hazou can do research into SC's memory transfer, using his capacity as a THer and a high level seal/runemaster to explore the exact mechanics of Shadow Clone, but I remain skeptical.
What software? The whole point is you're not interacting with the software at all, you're just taking an axe to the hardware.

When SCs are popped, presumably, some mechanism in the technique operates to transfer memories to the creator and other clones, and we would need to have some idea of what that mechanism was if we wanted to stop it from working. That might be a hard problem which would require TH expertise and time spent understanding the technique; but it's not software of the kind that would need genjutsu to interface with, you don't need to understand what the mechanism is doing in detail to break it. You could just make e.g. a "chakra isolation field" rune, which prevents any chakra effects from crossing its boundary, then pop the clone inside that - no idea if that particular approach would be viable, but you get the idea.

Such a rune might indeed have nasty unforeseen side effects, but it seems unlikely. Shadow Clones don't interact with their creator's mind until they're popped, as far as we know; any side effects would have to come from weird behaviour of whatever ongoing link is there when it's snapped under non-standard conditions. And again, that's a TH problem, not a genjutsu problem.
 
Shadow Clones don't interact with their creator's mind until they're popped, as far as we know
Emphasis on "as far as we know" there.

Personally, it was a surprise to me that the chakravores could drain prime through their clones and indicated a more active connection than I originally thought they had. The effect y'all are describing might instead just instantly pop the clones, for example.
 
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