Paths of Civilization
- Thread starter Academia Nut
- Start date
- Original
- Location
- Australia
This narrative you've built yourself has a distinct lack of context for our present situation. Our people hate the nomads, our people want the nomads dead and gone. Our people do not like metal, they dislike the fact that the king has brought famine by digging out the cursed material. Despite that, they care far more about the nomads.
The initial pushback for Weapons of the Gods came from the fact that the People had begun to think that while distasteful, it was necessary. Using the metal for tools instead of weapons, weapons which could be turned against the nomads who have caused such harm against the people? This will sour the People's opinions of the king further. Our people feel that the destruction of the nomads is necessary, so to use metal for something that's not necessary, regardless of whether you think it's necessary or not, that will only cause more unrest.
The thing is that destroying the nomads is necessary. If we don't destroy them now, they will come back again next turn after they gather more tribes under their banner to strike again. Ignoring the very real need for defence because we haven't focused on it before is unwise. It is narrow-minded thinking, an unwillingness to adapt to the realities of the world in order to cleave to ideals which don't work when turned towards these new challenges and which we have never held to. The way of the People is never to start fights, but to end them with all quickness and ferocity.
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Our weapons are good enough. Stone weapons did an 100% extermination on a force sizing 2/3.
Now, we're facing someone at 1/3 size.
So, weapons are not the issue.
The issue is catching them. No amount of iron weapons will help us.
But perhaps iron tools help us with our wheels? Get us faster? That's a small chance of helping.
Ok so I ran the numbers, and I'm actually ok with the chance of death, it's sufficiently small. Under the assumptions I made, it's only a 7% chance of death, but in exchange we go from -1.80 stability to -0.44, which is a pretty massive bonus.
[X] Weapons (+2 Econ, +8 Martial, ???)
[X] Restore order (Main usage)
[X] Offensive (+1 Stability)
[X] No (-1 Stability, +1 Legitimacy)
edit: whoops, this was originally just the old vote. Fixed.
[X] Weapons (+2 Econ, +8 Martial, ???)
[X] Restore order (Main usage)
[X] Offensive (+1 Stability)
[X] No (-1 Stability, +1 Legitimacy)
edit: whoops, this was originally just the old vote. Fixed.
Or we could just get those warriors to start with.
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On 1 hand, more people to work the fields.
On the other hand, more people to feed.
IMO, it's a net 0.
Abby Normal
High Clerk of the Ymaryn
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Not all martial score is created equal. We can already defeat the nomads in battle, the hardest part is finding them where they ran to, and having iron weapons doesn't make our warriors move faster or make them better at following trails.
If. The word you are looking for is "if"; it even suggests in the update that the offensive is futile; i'm personally expecting us to fail to catch them no matter what unless we crit and they critfail. I'm voting it for the stability.
- Location
- Actually pretty lost
[X] Weapons (+2 Econ, +8 Martial, ???)
[X] Leave things be
[X] Offensive (+1 Stability)
[X] No (-1 Stability, +1 Legitimacy)
Changing my vote - I'd like to avoid the chance o shattering our civ by touching -4.
I can't actually find that rule on our Civ sheet though - I don't suppose we evolved out of it and failed to notice?
Also, I suspect the ??? of Tools is going to be a Stability loss for not building the bloody weapons the People got over their fear of starmetal for. If we don't have enough Econ to pay for war missions and warriors, Offensive policy will produce econ, right?
[X] Leave things be
[X] Offensive (+1 Stability)
[X] No (-1 Stability, +1 Legitimacy)
Changing my vote - I'd like to avoid the chance o shattering our civ by touching -4.
I can't actually find that rule on our Civ sheet though - I don't suppose we evolved out of it and failed to notice?
Also, I suspect the ??? of Tools is going to be a Stability loss for not building the bloody weapons the People got over their fear of starmetal for. If we don't have enough Econ to pay for war missions and warriors, Offensive policy will produce econ, right?
- Location
- United States of America, Michigan
I am actually annoyed with our people for forcing us to go offensive because the only way not to collapse by going defensive is to make a martial king which isn't super helpful for defense.
Assumptions:
"tiny chance" (for GG) is 10%
admin rolls are 50% random, 50% order as specified.
Here's the top three plans:
['Offensive', 'OrderNo', 'KingNo']
-1.80006 average stability at end (excluding deaths)
stability probabilities
-2:90.003%
0:9.997%
['Offensive', 'OrderYes', 'KingYes']
0.71969 average stability at end (excluding deaths)
stability probabilities
-1:5.576%
0:16.879%
1:77.545%
['Offensive', 'OrderYes', 'KingNo']
-0.438779524377 average stability at end (excluding deaths)
stability probabilities
-4:7.2165%
-3:4.151%
-2:13.883%
-1:24.5255%
0:35.7385%
1:5.6705%
2:8.0825%
3:0.7325%
Here's the updated program, link:
"tiny chance" (for GG) is 10%
admin rolls are 50% random, 50% order as specified.
Here's the top three plans:
['Offensive', 'OrderNo', 'KingNo']
-1.80006 average stability at end (excluding deaths)
stability probabilities
-2:90.003%
0:9.997%
['Offensive', 'OrderYes', 'KingYes']
0.71969 average stability at end (excluding deaths)
stability probabilities
-1:5.576%
0:16.879%
1:77.545%
['Offensive', 'OrderYes', 'KingNo']
-0.438779524377 average stability at end (excluding deaths)
stability probabilities
-4:7.2165%
-3:4.151%
-2:13.883%
-1:24.5255%
0:35.7385%
1:5.6705%
2:8.0825%
3:0.7325%
Here's the updated program, link:
Code:
import random
import collections
def roll(c): return random.random()<c
def takeHit(stab, hit): return (stab+1) if (roll(tinyChance)) else (stab-hit)
def orderFn(stab):
x = takeHit(stab, 1)
if (x == -4): return -4
return ( x+max(random.randint(0,3),random.randint(0,3)))
tinyChance = 0.10
smallChance = 0.25
chance = 0.5
significantChance = 0.75
adminFail = 0.5
actionOrderBase = ['Offensive', 'OrderYes', 'KingNo']
#note that this is the order it will be done if admin roll passes
#if admin roll fails, will be performed randomly
Actions = {
'OrderNo' : lambda x: x,
'OrderYes' : lambda x: orderFn(x),
'Defensive' : lambda x: takeHit(x,1),
'Offensive' : lambda x: x+1,
'KingYes' : lambda x: x+1,
'KingNo' : lambda x: takeHit(x,1),
}
startingStability = -2
if 'KingNo' in actionOrderBase: legitimacy = 3
if 'KingYes' in actionOrderBase: legitimacy = 1
stabilityVals = collections.Counter()
n = 200000
print actionOrderBase
deaths = 0
stabilitySum = 0
for i in range(n):
stability = startingStability
actionOrder = list(actionOrderBase)
dead = False
if (roll(adminFail)): random.shuffle(actionOrder)
for fn in actionOrder:
stability = Actions[fn](stability)
stability = min(stability,legitimacy)
if (stability < -3):
dead = True
break
stabilityVals[stability] += 1
if (dead):
deaths += 1
continue
stabilitySum += stability
print str(stabilitySum/float(n-deaths))+" average stability at end (excluding deaths)"
print "stability probabilities"
for k, v in sorted(stabilityVals.iteritems()):
print format(k, '2d')+":"+str(v*100./n)+"%"
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Yeah but this force is lead by heroes.
- Location
- Simi Valley, CA, United States
I wouldn't underestimate them or assume it will be "easy" due to numbers. We know the outcome is roll-based and they have two heroes on their side.
Furthermore, this is a unique opportunity to transform or even overturn the Weapons of the Gods debilitating belief. At all other times, making iron weapons with no obvious enemies to use them on will likely net us negative Stability.
And last time we dealt with nomads we could have fought on or pay tribute.
We fought on, successfully.
I rather think people care about their stomachs more than revenge.
Food is a need, Revenge is a want.
If we don't fulfill needs, wants doesn't matter.
Also, the risk of iron weapons....
1. We might lose some to the Nomads. One day, they come back with iron weapons they picked off us.
2. Our martial is heavily contributed by Elites+Weapon. Lose 1 guy, lose 3 Martial probably.
5/13 martial is actual guys, 8/13 martial is weapons.
We'd get worse martial losses with Iron weapons without enough boots on the ground.
We should develop our martial organically, with more warriors together with the new equipment.
Note that weapons also have a ???
It might well have a stab loss due to not bothering about getting food (needs) before weapons.
People STILL have a fear of starmetal.
And Offensive Policy only wars or raises troops (spending what econ we don't have)
- Location
- Germany
So you are voting to sent the 5 Martial with their old weapons after the nomads with 2 hero units were we don´t get our defense bonus ... really how do you think that is a smart choice at all.
Without the bonus from the weapons the only thing we are doing is sending them to their death. It is ether stay at home and get the tools or go after them and get the weapons.
Honestly?
I would say the exactly opposite.
Have you read the update?
Our people want blood.
To take the weapons of the gods and use them to defeat nomads and save our people will, if anything, raise stability.
To see the king, on the other hand, not using the weapons of gods against their foes is something I expect to lead to a possible stability loss.
- Location
- Canada
[X] Weapons (+2 Econ, +8 Martial, ???)
[x] Leave things be
[X] Offensive (+1 Stability)
[X] No (-1 Stability, +1 Legitimacy)
What's the point in picking offensive if you don't choose weapons as well. We'll probably gain stability if we catch the nomads and our captured people with our high martial. 1 economy isn't the end of the world especially since all our provinces can expand economy next turn and we could get tools next turn as well. The narrative is that the People want blood and a war leader so keeping our current King and pushing for tools so they could farm is stupid and idiotic beyond belief. Our People don't feel safe and don't trust the King right now so they need to see him being active to their needs. If we go offensive which is in the lead then we need to go all in on it. Ignore the mechanics and look at the narrative of the update guys no one will be happy with iron tools when it could be used to protect them and get back the lost and kidnapped People.
[x] Leave things be
[X] Offensive (+1 Stability)
[X] No (-1 Stability, +1 Legitimacy)
What's the point in picking offensive if you don't choose weapons as well. We'll probably gain stability if we catch the nomads and our captured people with our high martial. 1 economy isn't the end of the world especially since all our provinces can expand economy next turn and we could get tools next turn as well. The narrative is that the People want blood and a war leader so keeping our current King and pushing for tools so they could farm is stupid and idiotic beyond belief. Our People don't feel safe and don't trust the King right now so they need to see him being active to their needs. If we go offensive which is in the lead then we need to go all in on it. Ignore the mechanics and look at the narrative of the update guys no one will be happy with iron tools when it could be used to protect them and get back the lost and kidnapped People.
This probably increases their maneuverability/tactics as we've seen this last round.
I don't think it's likely that better quality weapons will counteract a great general.
The hard part is catching a mobile force.
Truth be told, we need better maneuverability/faster.
Hope we proc horseshoes/better wheels with Tools or something.
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- Location
- Panama City
..........the tools option is +2 martial, which implies some weapons also get made. This is the priority for the first batch of iron.
7 martial, but the point stands.
Omegahugger
Inattentive Idiot
Now that's a bit baseless. For the northern parts of our kingdom, keeping the nomads away is at least as important as food. It's kinda hard to eat with a literal hole in your stomach, you see. And we do get some tools (and weapons) regardless of what we pick.
I just want more tools than that.