Asuma: "I want to deploy you as a summoner"

Hazou: "Sir the Great Seal takes priority, sorry"

Cannai: "I need you to go west and find the Arachnids, also join a raid into Leopard"

Hazou: "Yes, Alpha, cat murder it is"
asuma wasn't anywhere near fluffy enough to be listened to.
also canai managed to make a scorch squad actually be morally aceptable to us by not killing children and only killing a set number instead of rasing everything to the ground.
 
We keep kicking Storage Runes down the road, but these might allow us to make Implosion Runes and will definitely get more space time veterancy. I prefer that plans do less prep days and research those in a non-SSA slot at the moment.

We have to actually research more runes so that we get more accurate prep days to begin with...
I agree with MMKII. We should make a plan that ends with as many new completed runes as possible, with a bias towards building Veterancy.
This is a fair criticism, and I hesitated to post my plan because of it. However, the problem with actually researching more runes is that we have a pretty limited pool of candidates. Looking at the Difficulty Checks tracker, the total list of 'well within' runes that we haven't already researched is:
  • Capacitor Rune
    • Given the results of the Transformer and Chakra Filtering rune prep days ('beyond our capabilities'), likely useless to us. Could provide some veterancy for messing with chakra, but none of the runes it might help with have come back less then 'beyond our capabilities'.
  • Chakra Mapping Rune
    • Would love to make this one, actually, because it would help us understand the world better, but not directly useful. Might help us make the ninja-radar rune.
  • Superchiller Rune
    • We promised Kei we wouldn't do this one.
  • Time Stretch Rune
    • Limited utility - we know that even TR75 is currently 'could maybe do', so an amount of time slow useful against Akatsuki is likely beyond us for the foreseeable future (given the nature of the rune as something fixed in place in a wide area). Likely not even that good for veterancy given our preexisting experience with TRs.
  • TR130
    • Trivial improvement over what we already have.
  • Space Stretch Rune
    • Good for veterancy, but not obviously leading onto a chain against Akatsuki.
  • Air Leadening Rune
    • Currently in the plans.
  • Icarus Rune
    • Currently in the plans.
Storage runes obviously aren't on this list - we've never done a prep day on them - and there may be other similarly trivial runes that we could guess would be trivial without a prep day. However, of the items on this list that aren't already in the plans, none are directly useful except as veterancy fodder, and my current understanding of veterancy is that it's probably not going to bring a 'beyond capabilities' down to a 'well within', at least not without a number of runes that we don't have time to make. So we need more candidates. Hence prep days.

More concretely, I think there's a pretty decent chance that we see the results from the rolls on Icarus and Air Leadening and decide it's safe to move one or both of them to a non-SSA track, in which case we could then put runes we haven't tried yet - like Chakra Mapping, or like whatever we might get out of the prep days - into SSA tracks. If that happens, we can then research Storage Runes at the same time and end up with more completed runes than the alternative plan. Even if we think both Icarus and Leadening need SSA, we can still start Storage next cycle once we've cleared our prep day backlog a bit.

I get that your concern is that we'll keep putting off non-SSA tracks forever in favour of prep days, and it's a legitimate one. However, I think that currently, our lack of candidate runes to funnel veterancy towards is a bigger concern than our lack of veterancy in itself.
 
Liked DoB before it took a buff slot. Not worth losing SSA for a bonus we could get from another source.
I'm gonna have to respectfully ask that you don't quote my posts in a way that distorts what it looks like I said. As things stand I consider myself pretty anti-DoB, even if I could see my position flipping at some point in the future if we hit either of my cruxes.

I'm not so worried about the buff-slot thing because, well, sealing buffs seem to be extremely rare. Even these two buffs we're thinking to mix together, one of them is just the inherent nature of PS as a discipline and the other is quite possibly our single most powerful advantage in the entire quest. Skywalkers put us on the board but SSA made us a relevant player, one of the best sealmasters in the world, and DoB is downstream of that kind of rarity.

Put more formally, the opportunity cost of DoB in terms of buff-slots is that if we do discover a third meaningful Sealing buff we will have to spend hundreds of XP to arrange a triple buff combo, and if we encounter a fourth meaningful Sealing buff we won't be able to use it. But I think the odds of that are quite low. The inherent nature of PS as a discipline is already cashed in, and we're not likely to find something like SSA again. It still is an closing of doors in its way, but I'm not too worried overall.
 
I mean in the rune proposal blurb. It doesn't cost word count and it's less likely to be forgotten if done at the earliest opportunity.
I think that's beyond the scope of a prep day and seems likely to backfire if we do it that way. I expect the QMs to get squinty about circumventing word count in plans (@Paperclipped is that right?). I assure you I have no intentions of doing this without talking to the TS first.
 
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my current understanding of veterancy is that it's probably not going to bring a 'beyond capabilities' down to a 'well within',
These difficulty classifications are inherently incredibly inaccurate because we don't have more runes researched. We've been told this a few times.

We have to actually do the research instead of just fishing folks, if you want the fishing to pan out.
 
These difficulty classifications are inherently incredibly inaccurate because we don't have more runes researched. We've been told this a few times.

We have to actually do the research instead of just fishing folks, if you want the fishing to pan out.
I was aware of that, but my internal expectation has been that we weren't likely to get better difficulty classifications before any anti-Akatsuki weapons we had would need to be ready. I don't really have anything to back that up with, but I think it's fair to say that we have no reason to think we're going to get better classifications soon, such that it would make sense to delay prep days in favour of doing them later when we'll get more precise results.

My plan is only one cycle; six days subjective, less in external time. It's a delay to doing Storage Runes, but it's a small delay, and I would fully support putting a non-SSA track on Storage Runes next cycle.

Summary: my impression of the current situation is that we have about one and half updates' worth of prep days to do. Looking back at this voting tally, there aren't that many ideas that got more than one vote that aren't being prepped in the current plans, and there don't seem to have been that many runes proposed since (though I haven't counted, so may be wrong). This is why I think it's legitimate to put off Storage Runes for now; after one cycle of research, we will (I think) be down to less than an update's worth of prep days, and most of them will be ones that didn't previously get enough support to get into a plan (and therefore are unlikely to have a massive impact). At that point, we can shift away from prep days and put more time into research, but I think it's better to clear out our current queue of prep days, given that that queue doesn't seem to be filling up much and so we likely can clear it out. Plus, we potentially get to make up for the delay with multiple non-SSA tracks next cycle, if Icarus or Air Leadening turn out to be easy enough to do without SSA.

(Note for clarity - I don't think @Sir Stompy's plan would be bad. I do think mine is better, or I wouldn't be arguing for it, but the degree of effort I'm putting into arguing for it is mostly out of an idea that someone needs to defend it in order to help the best decision end up being made.)
 
[X] Training Plan Hazō: Next AB!
[] [prep day] Storage Rune

Do we think we still have 70 days left? This research is a net benefit if we do and is a net penalty if we don't. If we aggregate across our entire probability estimation, is the increased odds of victory across the probability chunk where we do have 70+ days left stronger than the decreased odds of victory across the probability chunk where we don't? What even is our overall chance of victory here? Do we need to make gambles like this or risk having no chance at all? Do we think we have it in the bag and shouldn't risk increasing any extant chances of failure?
It could break even a bit earlier than that if we research more space-time seals, and if they get more veterancy from TR150 than TR125. E.g. if we want to pursue TR75 as an anti-Akatsuki measure. But that's a big if, and even then I would have no idea whether it's worth it.

Another option might be to research unchained TR130 on a non-SSA track? Since "unchained" was enough to bring TR150 from "beyond capability" to "could maybe do", and 1-week TR130 was already "well within". It only gives us what, about 5 additional hours every 5 days? But it doesn't cost half of our prime research time, so it's much less investment. If it also builds a bit of space-time veterancy and helps with getting more accurate estimates because it's one more completed rune, it might be worth it.

Edit:
[X] Action Plan: Research, Reassess
You've convinced me with this:
Summary: my impression of the current situation is that we have about one and half updates' worth of prep days to do. Looking back at this voting tally, there aren't that many ideas that got more than one vote that aren't being prepped in the current plans, and there don't seem to have been that many runes proposed since (though I haven't counted, so may be wrong). This is why I think it's legitimate to put off Storage Runes for now; after one cycle of research, we will (I think) be down to less than an update's worth of prep days, and most of them will be ones that didn't previously get enough support to get into a plan (and therefore are unlikely to have a massive impact). At that point, we can shift away from prep days and put more time into research, but I think it's better to clear out our current queue of prep days, given that that queue doesn't seem to be filling up much and so we likely can clear it out. Plus, we potentially get to make up for the delay with multiple non-SSA tracks next cycle, if Icarus or Air Leadening turn out to be easy enough to do without SSA.
 
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I'm gonna have to respectfully ask that you don't quote my posts in a way that distorts what it looks like I said. As things stand I consider myself pretty anti-DoB, even if I could see my position flipping at some point in the future if we hit either of my cruxes.
Aiya, sorry. Will do better from now on.
I'm not so worried about the buff-slot thing because, well, sealing buffs seem to be extremely rare. Even these two buffs we're thinking to mix together, one of them is just the inherent nature of PS as a discipline and the other is quite possibly our single most powerful advantage in the entire quest. Skywalkers put us on the board but SSA made us a relevant player, one of the best sealmasters in the world, and DoB is downstream of that kind of rarity.

Put more formally, the opportunity cost of DoB in terms of buff-slots is that if we do discover a third meaningful Sealing buff we will have to spend hundreds of XP to arrange a triple buff combo, and if we encounter a fourth meaningful Sealing buff we won't be able to use it. But I think the odds of that are quite low. The inherent nature of PS as a discipline is already cashed in, and we're not likely to find something like SSA again. It still is an closing of doors in its way, but I'm not too worried overall.
Strongly disagree. The groundwork to call sealing buffs rare has not been done. Expect there are many bonuses out there on the tier of Dampeners for Calligraphy. Not that we should chase them now when our timeline is squolorching to an end.
 
The "use bigger groups" suggestion feels off. What if a big enough group is worth the effort for the Boss to personally quash ?
If Cannai can field groups of 20 they should be comfortably able take any group of Leopards we've seen so far. That's not enough for the Boss IMO
[X] [prep day] Storage Rune
[X] [prep day] Storage Rune
[X] [prep day] Storage Rune
Just FYI guys I'm going to exercise my veto on this prep day. I literally cannot imagine this being more than ...well within... and I want to give as many idea as possible their time in the spotlight.

Sorry!
 
You've all convinced me that the "mind-controlled Kurenai" thing is less probable than I thought, but I still give it at least 10% odds, and I think that makes it worth bringing up with Kei (who can decide whether this should be mentioned to other people in Leaf, and then it's no longer Hazō's problem either way).

Any chance this could make it into a plan for a Velorien update? I'm not sure how detailed it should be though. Should a plan list the main pieces of evidence, or can Kei be expected to think of them once Hazō gives her the idea? Can it list to this post, or is it cheating on word count? Should Hazō ask for Kei's opinion on Itachi as the culprit for framing Asuma, separately from the Kurenai thing? (imo it's significantly more probable, but even less actionable)?

Oh, I'm not at all against discussing that with Kei!

I was reading this like, "cool, could be, but it's not really actionable to Hazou right now, but we should throw this to Shika". Then you quoted me saying that same thing from ages ago.
So, I guess I stand by that.
(We don't have direct access to Shika right now, but we can easily talk with Kei, so I think it's worth consulting her before potentially sending Noburi to Shika with this)
 
Assuming Minato was a 10 XP / day genius who did not also happen to stumble upon FOOM, is there an estimate of his likely total XP at the time he gained the flee-on-sight order? This would help us bound the expected return from Minatosealing - if he became super S Rank off (y) XP, we know there's something extremely potent downstream of Minatosealing (Hiraishin) that is attainable with that XP total given pyramid restrictions, which would let us estimate upper bounds on the skill level required to attain it.

IIRC canon Minato graduated at 10, died at 24 so was in active service 14 years at most!
 
Just FYI guys I'm going to exercise my veto on this prep day. I literally cannot imagine this being more than ...well within... and I want to give as many idea as possible their time in the spotlight.

Sorry!
That's a very good point. I voted for this because I think it would be a good idea to use research a storage rune if it's possible to do it without SSA, so that we have an idea of how it works and in which directions it might be exploited, and so that we increase our pool of completed runes for future reference. But you're right that doing just a prep day is too likely to be a waste.

Is there any policy in place that if during the first day of a research cycle, Hazō preps a rune that seems very easy, he keeps going and infuses it without SSA at the end of the cycle? I guess this is not possible because there is no lower estimation than "well within" at the moment, and even this seems too risky to do without SSA...

Can Hazō get a more precise estimate by doing more than one prep day on the same rune? Could a plan say: prep runes A, B, C during the whole cycle, then infuse the easiest of them without SSA if Hazō thinks he can do it; otherwise, abort rune C (which is lower priority than A and B) as soon as he thinks they will all require SSA?

Anyway, unvoting the prep day on storage runes, thanks for bringing it up!
 
[X] [prep day] Anti-Paper Rune

Because I think we've got through enough of the general stuff that we can start checking specific countermeasures. (Not voting for the Chakra Attenuation Rune b.c. I expect from the results of other runes affecting chakra that it won't work, and there are only three slots free this cycle.)

Also, we need a ground-protecting defensive rune to go with Runic Air Domes, even if Runic Force Domes are beyond us for now. I'm going to slightly modify @Cariyaga's original version to only affect a hollow dome of ground, which will hopefully make it more efficient, and place below.

[X] [prep day] Iron Earth Dome Rune

Iron Earth Dome Rune
Rune

All soil and stone intersecting a hollow hemisphere centered on the rune is frozen in place and made far more durable. This effect is similar to how air domes affect air, but benefits from the solid base material to end up much tougher than an air dome. This effect also prevents tunneling or digging jutsu, as well as other techniques that move existing earth or allow a ninja to move through the earth (e.g. Hiding Like A Mole).



Edit: Actually, also:
[X] [prep day] Trad Explosive Rune
Edit edit: replaced by Portable Explosive Rune to give more leeway for Hazōpilot.
Edit edit edit: reinstated after description update.

Because if we can abrogate runic drag that would be huge for a number of applications.
 
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Rock Go Fast Rune

A time dilation rune, but only affects other runes in its AoE. This affects: activation time, any applicable time-based effects of the rune, and rune duration.

For example, a RGF Rune at 2x dilation would cause an Air Dome Rune to activate in half the time, take half as long to regenerate damage or repair a broken barrier, but last only half as long overall. An Explosive Rune, which has an instantaneous effect, would only experience a halving of its activation time.

NB: this logic should likely already work for our general-purpose time dilation runes, but it would be interesting if we could achieve greater effects with a more targeted rune effect.
 
[X] [prep day] Iron Earth Dome Rune

[] [prep day] Prepared Explosive Rune
Vision-based probably jacks the difficulty up like mad. Link me to a version with a simple trigger that takes a standard action or less, and I'll vote for that.

[X] [prep day] Portable Explosive Rune
Like Explosive rune, but (no/significantly reduced) runic drag.
 
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Edit: Actually, also:
[X] [prep day] Trad Explosive Rune

Because if we can abrogate runic drag that would be huge for a number of applications.
[X] Portable Explosive Rune
Like Explosive rune, but (no/significantly reduced) runic drag.
Alright, yeah, this is better - more leeway for Hazōpilot to decide what's viable. Vote swapped.

[] [prep day] Portable Explosive Rune

Edit: Trad Explosive Runes reinstated after description update.
 
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Is there any policy in place that if during the first day of a research cycle, Hazō preps a rune that seems very easy, he keeps going and infuses it without SSA at the end of the cycle? I guess this is not possible because there is no lower estimation than "well within" at the moment, and even this seems too risky to do without SSA...
I have this in my plan.
Non-SSA Track: Storage Rune (do not proceed in not ...well within...)
But yes you have it correct. We (usually) get no information but the result of the prep day. So there's little point to doing prep days on stuff we *know* will be too hard or too easy.
[X] Portable Explosive Rune
Like Explosive rune, but (no/significantly reduced) runic drag.
This vote format is incorrect and won't be counted by the tally.

Also I have a suggestion that's basically identical - Trad Explosive Rune, why not just suggest I put "(no/significantly reduced)" I the description?
 
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