Cariyaga
Handsome Gentleperson
- Location
- United States
Yeah that works, thanks!
Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest
- Thread starter eaglejarl
- Start date
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- Tags
- naruto rationalist romance armageddon is looking better and better damn you kishimoto explosions everywhere explosives solve everyone if in doubt surrender to the mercy of zabuza it seemed like a good idea at the time looks like a really bad case of being a jōnin my god. where does the lore end? precommitting is the winning plan screaming in kagome screw the rules i have explosives something bad might still happen sometimes you gotta sociopath stabby zabby subsection c of paragraph 9 should include we can weaponize this so hard
Emstar
The Shining One
- Location
- Trapped in an extradimensional rift.
- Pronouns
- She/They
I feel like buying land will be easier before we've cleared it. Clearing it increases its value, making it harder for the current owner (daimyo/hokage/whoever) to justify letting us get it.
- Location
- Why would this be required?
[X] Action Plan: 
My bad, forgot to vote
My bad, forgot to vote
- Location
- Omniverse #1345
[x] Action Plan: We Totally Are the Good Guys, Don't You See?
@eaglejarl I doubt I have to say anything, but if you're serious about this sealing failure thing be careful about cumulative probability. It's really, really easy to assume that because the roll is rare you're not overestimating. But sealmasters in Leaf are pretty stable from what we know, and are trained only very rarely, so truly lethal sealing failures need to happen on the order of years - at the current rate of progress that means rolling something like 4 100-sided dice and having *all* of them land on a 1 being a sealing failure (without actually doing the math, because I've had enough math for the day).
@eaglejarl I doubt I have to say anything, but if you're serious about this sealing failure thing be careful about cumulative probability. It's really, really easy to assume that because the roll is rare you're not overestimating. But sealmasters in Leaf are pretty stable from what we know, and are trained only very rarely, so truly lethal sealing failures need to happen on the order of years - at the current rate of progress that means rolling something like 4 100-sided dice and having *all* of them land on a 1 being a sealing failure (without actually doing the math, because I've had enough math for the day).
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- Location
- Why would this be required?
[x] Action Plan: We Totally Are the Good Guys, Don't You See?
Cariyaga
Handsome Gentleperson
- Location
- United States
She's an important part of it.
- Location
- The Void
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Including her includes the Nara which I do not advise doing. We can successfully clear the land without her so we should. Is incredibly basic OPSEC that we need to implement
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Cariyaga
Handsome Gentleperson
- Location
- United States
We cannot clear the land as safely or as quickly without her.
Noumero
Omit Needless Words
Hahaha! I control everything! Texts and images, lands and societies, life and death, Plan A and Plan B! Bow— nay, kneel, kneel before my overpowering influence, for you have no other options save the fiery oblivion of Armageddon Initiative!
What if I include warning her that it's a Gouketsu operation, and she's not to inform the Nara about it yet?
Huh? That's 1/100'000'000, which means (unless I got my math wrong1) that if all 50 of Leaf's sealmasters infuse ten new seals per day, it'll be ~600'000 days before a failure happens with any certainty. How did you get this number?
1. Probability that a failure happens during any particular day: 1-(1-1/100'000'000)50*10≈1/200'000.
Days until a failure happens with 95% certainty: log1-1/200'000(1-0.95)≈599'145.
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- Location
- The Void
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Would not be good enough for me to vote for it but still would appreciate if you added that
Cariyaga
Handsome Gentleperson
- Location
- United States
TBH, as long as we tell her that it's not working against Nara interests we don't have to tell her not to inform the Nara. She'll have no reason to.
- Location
- Yes.
Basically this.
- Location
- Phoenix, AZ
[X] Armageddon Initiative
Noumero
Omit Needless Words
Sure, I'll include it.
Issue: are we not working against the Nara's interests/competing with them? According to Keiko, the Nara have plans for similar operations. They're just sitting on them, of course, but if they planned to profit off them and we're beating them to the punch...
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Cariyaga
Handsome Gentleperson
- Location
- United States
Huh. Good point.
- Location
- Yes.
Ehhhh...it sounds like the Nara are copying the idea to have long-term clearance around a village, as opposed to turning an area of wilderness into farmland.
- Location
- The Void
- Pronouns
- She/Her
If we involve Kei in the actual plan the Nara will find out. I suspect that even if Keiko didn't tell Nara he would investigate what she is doing. If we don't want this taken over by the Nara we need to be cautious
- Location
- Pacific standard
4 is a bit much lol. At that rate with monthly checks its ~50% that one occures after 5.5 million years lol
From my calcs a 1.1% chance every month leads to 50% chance for a catastrophic failure every 5 years. That sounds about right to me.
You could do this with an online d1000, with the bottom 11 results tied to respective serious sealing failures, with the absolute bottom result having you roll again for which apocalypse we now live in
Also this way we get to populate the rest of that table with amusing mostly harmless sealing failures
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- Location
- Omniverse #1345
I was operating under the assumption that the vast majority of leaf's seal masters aren't going to be making new seals - they are just going to keep making seals they have a TN of 0 on, But I was still about a power of 100 off, so it would be crit failing 3 dice at once.
Part of that was a misreading on my part - I'm reading another story where the QM does the rolls per character, which would increase the probability by a factor of ~30ish. (not exactly, obviously, but close enough.) While EJ was proposing a single roll for all of them.
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- Location
- Yes.
...can the Nara do this, though? I recall that one of our unique advantages was Noburi's bloodline which made chakra refill using the various chakra monsters a way to continually clear the land.
- Location
- Omniverse #1345
My expectation is when the Nara find out about our plan they'll improve it in exchange for a cut or something. They aren't going to want to do the actual work, since being Nara they are naturally lazy. Better to have us do it and them profit from some quick corrections.