I have a problem with this sentence, I realize. Subconsciously.

Homura seemed accepting of the possibility of Feathers being a thing, that one time she brought it up, but Oriko's warning of the Loopbomb was before that. We know the loopbomb would break Homu, Feathers or no Feathers.

It's like...

Loopbomb = Break Homu.

Loopbomb + Feathers = Break Homu. Even more. Which makes sense, but it's kind of meaningless, like stomping on a broken piece of china that was already broekn beyond repair.

And I do mean it makes sense what you're saying. But I have trouble wrapping my head around it.

Is Feather's objective to throw a shovel at Homu once she reaches rock bottom? To break her further than completely broken? Is this somehow proof that Feathers=Homulilly?

I am le confused.
Not sure I'm parsing you correctly, but...

As far as Homura easily accepting Feathers goes, it's possible that Homura thinks Feathers is an artifact of this particular timeline. She's faced all sorts of oddities after all. Given some of the things she's described I can see her hearing "this one time there was also a second final boss" without much thinking it strange.

As to "Feather's objective" I don't think Feathers needs to be necessarily personally inimical to Homura for it to have that kind of effect. Just being a massive threat her actions have wrought might be enough.

Also, anything Gretchen derived just existing might well do it.

As far as what tangible difference it "loopbomb + Feathers" makes that the loopbomb itself doesn't, I think it's so that we can't just metaknowledge + social our way around it all: If the loopbomb was all there was, a theoretical Social Genius!Brina could just solve it without having to engage as much with the world of the quest. With Feathers in the mix however, we actually need to go out and proactively perform research on what's up in order to solve it.

Also, while reading up on the old arguments and warnings RE: the potentialbomb, I came across this:

Second, because I apparently have to be explicit about it: Yes, it's a warning. Things Will Happen if Homura learns that she is causing Madoka's potential to increase. Doubly so if Kyuubey finds the right time to strike, granted. It will not bad end the Quest, not just yet, but Things Will Happen. I've scattered hints and foreshadowing as to what those things are already, and as far as I can tell, no one's guessed it yet.
We'd previously talked about stuff like Homura witching out after the potentialbomb and, while I can't remember off the top of my head, I think Homucifer attacking us or Homura losing her magic may have also come up. However, it occurs to me that while there are certainly many mundane things that might occur as a result of her surviving the potentialbomb, that's not exactly what a "scattered" hint by Firn would be.

But now that the idea of "Feathers is attracted to tragedy" has appeared, I wonder if she wouldn't show up as a direct result of the potentialbomb.

I mean, she appears for every other Mitakihara group tragedy we know of at least. She showed up for Sayaka's mysterious death and she also appeared when Mami was effectively trapped alone in our barrier. Why wouldn't she show up for Homura falling into the pits of despair?

It certainly fits with us being given "scattered hits" by Firn.

If Kirika is interested in doing some homework, she could try checking out the meguca IRCs that Nadia shared with us, see what's the current gossip around the globe for meguca kind. Might be a good way to see if the white rat is already planting seeds of doubt against us on other groups, and she could gather info on other IRCs we haven't known about yet.
Unfortunately, this has already been raised and vetoed in a prior update. Alas~

Maybe next week.
 
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I wouldn't be surprised if Oriko was the type of shitposter that would spend a long time writing a shitpost that at first glance was a normal post, but if you took the third letter of every other word of every word it was a meme or some shit, but no one would notice that it was a shitpost so she would go feel bad about it and Kirika would have to cheer her up.
 
Huh so Oriko is gaining the ability to Scry. Which actually is a good thing. It means, from my understanding of things, that Oriko is internalizing the whole 'don't rely on precog' thing. Her soul is literally reshaping in response to that.

I wonder if that actually completes if we could use it with Homura granting Oriko more freedoms.

ummm
 
"You haven't even tried Mami's cooking, your opinion is invalid," you say.

"Ah, but I might have experienced a vision of the future where I did, at which point I would likely have had a variation of this conversation," Oriko says. "Therefore, by foreseeing myself having that conversation I would be able to glean my own opinion."

"... But you didn't," you say, squinting suspiciously at Oriko. "And your opinion would be biased, anyway."
Yup, definitely been learning to shitpost. :p
 
Chance to win = constant.

Let's suppose it's 0,01%. That means Homura will win if she runs through a number of loops in between 1 and 20000, more or less 10000. So she just has to keep going and she'll win eventually.

(I picked 0,01% because the whole point is that the fight against Walpurgisnacht is basically hopeless, and Homura's looping is supposed to counter that. So just arbitrarily picked a really small number.)


But if the chance to win decreases each loop... it could be thought of like this, more or less:

Loop 1's chances to win are 0,01%.
Loop 2's chances to win are (k . 0,01%).
Loop 3's chances to win are (k^2 . 0,01%).
Loop 4's chances to win are (k^3 . 0,01%).
...

(With k being lower than 1, thus odds decreasing each time).

Which adds up to:

0,01% / 1 - k

This is definitely Homura's thought process, but it's got a pretty serious fallacy built into it that I think we're going to need to use if/when we tell her. Namely, the chance Madoka contracts does not actually increase with each loop in a linear fashion. There are only so many ways Kyuubey can trick or convince her to contract and thus not every increase in desperation from Kyuubey can lead to new and unique approaches to contracting her. The Incubators are also entirely divorced from emotion and so don't intuitively understand how to manipulate humans (beyond their centuries of experience, at least), meaning not every step up in action leads to higher chances of Madoka actually contracting.

Finally and most importantly, because the list of things Kyuubey can do to convince her is finite, it doesn't actually matter that Madoka's potential scales up infinitely, as there will be a cap to how likely the Incubator is to succeed. Once the cap is reached, Homura's premise of "if I try enough, eventually I will succeed" is actually true. And we have no way to know for sure if we've reached the cap, but considering Kyuubey is willing to sacrifice the entire population of the planet and thus all future contracts there for Madoka's potential, I think it's pretty clear we've passed that cap a long time ago.

This is all tangential to your point about why Homura breaks in response to the potentialbomb, but I think it's important to make sure we have a strong argument to present to Homura if/when it becomes a problem. As we've seen before, Homura's more in need of an emotional support structure to catch her in the event of a breakdown, but having a strong logical framework as well can help too.
 
Correct me if i am wrong, but doesn't Homura's potential (as a witch) also increase with each loop?

I mean, the Devil of Love DID turn out to be stronger than the Goddess of Hope.

It's just that Homura can't tap into that without turning into a witch.

Do we also tell Homura any of that?

I was under the impression it was down to Homura making a new wish ("remember Madoka") in the sparkly god space that Madoka brought her to for naked space hugs.
 
As far as what tangible difference it "loopbomb + Feathers" makes that the loopbomb itself doesn't, I think it's so that we can't just metaknowledge + social our way around it all: If the loopbomb was all there was, a theoretical Social Genius!Brina could just solve it without having to engage as much with the world of the quest. With Feathers in the mix however, we actually need to go out and proactively perform research on what's up in order to solve it.
[Q] Make a Social AI in a box, capable of convincing anyone of anything.
-[Q] Win.
--[Q] Pack and go home to hug Mami.
---[Q] Hug Mami.
----[Q] ... Wait, is KB an AI outside a box?


Actual thought: You know... Can't we get Niko to finish and deploy the memory field so as to make it impossible for Homura to learn of the Potentialbomb?

I mean, it sounds like dirty cheating, but it only has to last until after Walpugrisnacht and Feathers are down.
 
Firn, for the love of God, you need to show us Oriko's shitposting in a future update at some point. Please. I will literally pay you money.

OP: *Posts picture of minature chainsaw* I found this in my parent's garage? What is this?
SilverSeer95: I have it on good authority that it is a device your mother requires in order to shave her armpit hair.

OP: Will the world end in fire or in ice?
SilverSeer95: Fire, when Jeb Bush gets the launch codes in 2017 and finishes his brother's work.

OP: Where the Mitakihara singles at?
SilverSeer95: You turned all the girls in Mitakihara gay. All of them. Retroactively in some cases. They just knew, somehow, that you would be born and swore of the male persuasion forever.

OP: Oh god I am so worried about my upcoming exam.
SilverSeer95: Don't be, you're going to die at the the end of the month to a typhoon. Feel your left shoulder; right there you will be impaled by a steel beam and die of blood loss after rescue crews realise there is no quick way to free you and move to triage you in favour of many other lives that need saving.
PirateNinjaAssassin96: So just use some jet fuel to melt it, I don't see what the big deal is.

OP: ...and that's why we need to ban contraception to combat the falling birth rate.
SilverSeer95: Greetings, I know you're 14. Would you like to know how your 24 year old self describes your current views? I quote "I was a fucking idiot as a teenager".
 
Do you mean the time we Metabombed Mami?

Well, if I'm right, I can see a reason the metabomb wouldn't count as a tragedy but the time Mami was in our barrier would.

...It's not a nice reason.

In the case of the Metabomb drop, we were still there, fully aware, and available to help Mami. Even as bad as it went, we were still able to influence it and prevent her from going over the edge.

Yes, she still went halfway full in a matter of seconds, but even as hairy as things were, we got through that intact.

In our barrier, on the other hand... The barrier idea was one of the two things we'd studied on the hunt that, as far as Homura and Mami knew, had nearly got us killed examining a familiar.

So Mami was stuck essentially alone in our barrier, with us entirely unresponsive, on what had already been a bad day for her, the day just after she'd been scared to death about losing us to something pointless and stupid, having just jumped back into the other possible dangerous thing on her request, for a whole half an hour.

And despite all that, she was only a third full on grief.

We know for a fact that Feathers was in our barrier, because she did something that left The Feather.

What if that something was preventing Mami from becoming a witch?

EDIT:
OP: *Posts picture of minature chainsaw* I found this in my parent's garage? What is this?
SilverSeer95: I have it on good authority that it is a device your mother requires in order to shave her armpit hair.

OP: Will the world end in fire or in ice?
SilverSeer95: Fire, when Jeb Bush gets the launch codes in 2017 and finishes his brother's work.

OP: Where the Mitakihara singles at?
SilverSeer95: You turned all the girls in Mitakihara gay. All of them. Retroactively in some cases. They just knew, somehow, that you would be born and swore of the male persuasion forever.

OP: Oh god I am so worried about my upcoming exam.
SilverSeer95: Don't be, you're going to die at the the end of the month to a typhoon. Feel your left shoulder; right there you will be impaled by a steel beam and die of blood loss after rescue crews realise there is no quick way to free you and move to triage you in favour of many other lives that need saving.
PirateNinjaAssassin96: So just use some jet fuel to melt it, I don't see what the big deal is.

OP: ...and that's why we need to ban contraception to combat the falling birth rate.
SilverSeer95: Greetings, I know you're 14. Would you like to know how your 24 year old self describes your current views? I quote "I was a fucking idiot as a teenager".
An artist's depiction of Oriko Shitposting. (KSBD spoilers)
 
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Firn, for the love of God, you need to show us Oriko's shitposting in a future update at some point. Please. I will literally pay you money.
When he does, he must do it in style. After all, we already got one example of Kirika's shitposting:

File: clear_skies.jpg (123kB 1020x680)  
Anonymous 04/07/11(Thu)14:26:35 No.51017331 >>51017542
ITT: meguca
>> Anonymous 04/07/11(Thu)14:27:43 No.51017542 >>51017667
File: da_phuk_is_a_valid_name_i_swear.jpg (123kB 1280x720)
  the fuck's a meguca
   
>> Anonymous 04/07/11(Thu)14:27:57 No.51017667 >>51017712 >>51017856 >>51017872
  >>51017542
magical girls!
   
>> Anonymous 04/07/11(Thu)14:28:12 No.51017712 >>51017719
  >>51017667
fuck off with your animu bullshit
   
>> Anonymous 04/07/11(Thu)14:28:29 No.51017712
File: umad.jpg (48kB 340x340)
  >>51017703
no

Also someone asked about how is it that Homura can bring down Madoka even though Madoka has all the Potential, and rather than answer, I thought maybe you could, since you probably can give a better answer?
 
Namely, the chance Madoka contracts does not actually increase with each loop in a linear fashion.
Ah, but we must also include the Guilt Factor in the equation, which as everyone knows, does not grow linearly, but exponentially, or rather, spirally!

It is a very important factor because all this Potential math is all just a representation of Homura's subconscious understanding and reasons to hold onto her hope. Even if Madoka's Potential increased only a little each loop, and KB would have started using all available machinations at its disposal within only a few loops, the clarity of these facts are distorted by the Guilt clouding Homura's viewing lens.

When seen through Homura's lens, the world is a grey and black thing with only a one bright spot of pink in the middle, but that pink light is surrounded by the tempestous, furious, foolish and suspicious waves of the Sayaka Sea.

Not only that, but there be a ray of golden sunshine shining down on the Madoka light, and pulling it ever higher away from the center of the world and towards the ascended heaven of megucadom, and if Madoka would reach that tempestous heaven, full of storm and thunder, she would perish as the golden sun of Mami oftentimes does, her sun exitinguished. Homura hopes that comes to be before Madoka reaches megucadom heaven.

And she then feels guilty about it, because she is the storm, and the rage that disturbs the seas, and also the inclement wind that threatens to sweep Madoka off her protective chains that keep her anchored to the center of the universe where she belongs, those chains and bonds of friendship and family that represent everyone Madoka cares about. Homura isn't there.

Homura sighs in sadness, and that sigh becomes an hurricane that flings a box of pocky Madoka's way, forcing her to cover herself and, once she looks again, she gets slapped with a wad of cash that then flies away, this gone cash money representing Hitomi's presence and then sidelining in Madoka's life.

Of course Homura isn't the actual cause of all this, but she is a girl who took it upon herself to make things right, took the responsibility upon her shoulders, and thus also the guilt. That guilt carries Homura forward as she steers her boat, lance in hand hunting down the white whale with the golden hoops and red eyes, eyes straining in search across the sea from which Sayaka's face frowns back at her.

if/when we tell her.
We totally need to make a note that Oriko straight up told us it would be unwise to Potentialbomb Homura. For posterity. Don't know where it'd fit in the planner, though.
 
We totally need to make a note that Oriko straight up told us it would be unwise to Potentialbomb Homura. For posterity. Don't know where it'd fit in the planner, though.

Yeah, the day planner's a bit of a mess with how many sections it has right now. Tried to clean it up a bit and at least reorder the pages to make it less disorganized the other day.

Related though, there's another matter to consider from this update: We just learned that Madoka might accidentally potentialbomb Homura. Should we give her a warning of some sort to make sure she doesn't do that? Or otherwise take action?
 
Yeah, the day planner's a bit of a mess with how many sections it has right now. Tried to clean it up a bit and at least reorder the pages to make it less disorganized the other day.

Related though, there's another matter to consider from this update: We just learned that Madoka might accidentally potentialbomb Homura. Should we give her a warning of some sort to make sure she doesn't do that? Or otherwise take action?
I propose we have a long debate about whether we should take action, then we question whether we should have said debate, and had another debate about whether we should have a debate about whether we should take action, then enter a self recursive loop which would screech to a halt when Homura becomes Potentialbombed due to our inaction.

Rather, I've always wondered about Homura's ability to stay in denial, for example, during Oriko Magica, where Oriko claims Madoka contracting would be super disastrous, yet Homura doesn't seem to ever think about why.

It's like Homu doesn't allow herself to notice how KB has been going after Madoka more and more over time. Or perhaps she's... forgotten, by now. The first loop Madoka was contracted, the next two Homura was fine with Madoka contracting, after that... she might have noticed, but between trauma and time, she might have forgot that KB didn't use to want Madoka to Contract that badly.

It would be ironic if Homura ends up Potentialbombed becuse we pushed her and Madoka closer together, wouldn't it? Hilariously sad and horrific.

I kind of would really like to have that Memory Field preventing Homu from learning about the Potentialbomb. The Potentialbomb problem's gonna be weighting on our shoulders basically until quest end. :/
 
"Ah, but I might have experienced a vision of the future where I did, at which point I would likely have had a variation of this conversation," Oriko says. "Therefore, by foreseeing myself having that conversation I would be able to glean my own opinion."

"... But you didn't," you say, squinting suspiciously at Oriko. "And your opinion would be biased, anyway."

"Plus, since we've had this conversation now, you'd feel like you had to. Like one of those self-fulfilling prophecies"
 
I think we might need to potential bomb homura. Oriko said that KB is going to drop it at the worst time. Dropping it under controlled circumstances is the only way to defuse it.
 
Watch Feathers turn out to be Godbrina or some other conceptual or transcendental bullshit.

The calling card is because she's a dork and thinks it makes her look cool/er.

"Attracted to tragedy" is poetically true, because whenever there's an emotional tire fire involving a magical girl, she tries to put it out before anyone gets cremated alive.
 
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No harm being on good terms with feathered beings in general, you reason.
You tilt your wings in salute to your fellow winged compatriots
GEE I WONDER IF THERE'S A MESSAGE HERE
"You shouldn't consider us- Kirika!" Oriko trails off into a whine and flinches away from Kirika, who's currently menacing her with something.

You blink. You'd nearly missed the motion - Kirika's hand all but blurred as she snatched... a squirt bottle from her pocket.

"I... thank you, Sabrina," Oriko says, giving you a smile that's half rueful and half annoyed.

"That's more like it," Kirika says, looping an arm around Oriko's waist.

"We could stil- no, alright, I won't-" Oriko wards off Kirika's incoming spritz. "I'm sorry!"
Apparently she's been doing this enough that Oriko's learned to flinch, which is hilarious. Which means she's also doubtlessly the reason Oriko has been improving so rapidly. They really are perfect for each other, aren't they?

Also, a squirt bottle from a pocket? We aren't talking about one of these things, are we? Because I'm not sure those fit in pockets. Kirika figuring out the pocket dimension trick?
You snort, smiling sheepishly. "Yeah, well, too close to the problem and all that. Plus, I had entirely valid doubts- agh!"

"Bad Sabrina," Kirika snaps, lowering the squirt bottle.

You pout at Kirika.

"You did accept responsibility, Sabrina," Oriko says placidly, her cutlery rattling pointedly against her plate.
Hah!

Weeeeeee probably shouldn't let Mami know that this would work on us. We'd be getting spritzed constantly.
"The matter I wanted to bring up," she says. "I have been... getting flashes of visions - but not of the future. Of the present."
...Interesting! And interestingly thematic. Previously she was trying to change the world, so she got visions of the future; now she's accepted the current situation, so she's getting visions of the world as it is.

(I assume that she's using it to spy on Kirika whenever she's doing something adorably The-Kures-y.)
 
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