Homura told us she'd consider telling Madoka her story after WPN. If WPN and Feathers is handled, and Homura tells Madoka her story, Madoka probably won't contract.
Everything else we tell Madoka up till then is just bullshit we make up to stall, because beyond stuff like the witchbomb which Madoka totally has the power to loophole her wish around, there is no other reason for her not to contract.
Look, before I say anything, this is all very speculative and quite unreliable.
I believe Madoka has a large inferiority complex that would blatantly prevent her from making a profound Wish without sacrificing herself or at least making someone benefit at her expense.
I believe Homura has a twisted model or self-worth that hinges on her worth to Madoka, or, more specifically, how safe and happy Homura is able to make Madoka.
Furthermore, I am fairly sure Homura was displaying suicidal tendencies post-Wraith Arc, basically trying to get herself killed heroically in a hopeless battle and traveling to Madokami knows where in order to accomplish that.
Because I think those were not the ruins of Mitakihara, as the possibility of Kwijibo, Hitomi, Kyouko, Madoparents, that weird Teacher lady and Mami all surviving such a cataclysmic destruction seems pretty negligible to me. At the very least, Mami would have almost certainly bitten the dust trying to stop this from occurring.
Where was I? Suicide attempt, right.
So after Madoka both saved and sacrificed herself, basically accomplishing what Homura was trying to do all the time, Homura had only two things left going for her: being the only person who remembers Madoka, thus her sorta apostle, I guess, and a promise that they will meet again when she fucking dies.
Fast forward Rebellion, Madoka going all "I wouldn't want to be separated from my family and friends" blah blah Devil blah blah, I believe that this particular conundrum was fairly likely to happen. I don't put much stock into "My Homura is not a yandere" characterization, I believe that this was totally in-character for her and also a result of her fucking falling into despair due to aforementioned circumstances and the whole Rebellion shenanigans.
So I'm really against letting Madoka contract at the minimum until we resolve her inferiority complex and at the maximum I kinda want Sabrina to sit down and explain, step by step, the Rebellion and how it happened to Homura and Madoka. Not blaming them for it, but urging them to learn from their alternatives' mistakes and become more accomplished people.
After Walmartnight, I guess.
