Guilds are not going to do them, by word of AN, the traders might do it(less likely to if we encourage them to build ships by building ships themselves) and the patricians may do it but are in a hissy fit right now. Additional reason for the Guilds not to do them, its their Desire and in their current mood they want us to do that Desire to make up to them.
You'd also be spending 18 wealth in one turn(if the traders do what we want) which I am a bit leery about, though not too bad considering incomes and overflow from baby boom. My third concern is that I don't really want to throw actual military at the Saffronders if we can help it, and I think mercs will be sufficient. I also think that this diplo mission will be decent at stabilizing the Harmurri given Alyx's skill.
I'm pretty sure that AN's said a Harbour is likely to get built.
There's a good chance the patricians and traders are going to build a harbour, yes.
It's likely that the Trade Infrastructure passives and half of an Admin passive will combine to build it. Combined with Redhills' native policy, they're likely to finish the Harbour in Redshore and the Colossal Walls in Redhills. The Colossal Walls in Valleyguard will be finished next turn based on which Passive policies are available. Redshore will probably go 3/9 on Block Housing, then 6/9 the turn after which we can cap off with a single [Sec]. It ties everything up nicely. Other than our one [Sec] Block housing, no actions are necessary.
On second thought, it might be better to do More Warships on our own. That way, the Traders will likely take actions that either generate Wealth or fall in line with our King's Agenda. I'd be worried about them 'wasting' Wealth otherwise.
As for the Wealth expense, I forgot how bloody expensive Sec Support Sacred Orders was; you might as well go for a [Main] if you want to invest in it at all. Raise Army is almost as good as far as Sec actions go.
I don't think we have the option to throw our Mercs at the Saffron Islanders, though. The Dragon and Blood Rain Banners are simply too weak currently. and the Red Banner's loyalty isn't in a great situation. To be honest, I want to try and get some more Mercs, they're simply so useful. Plus, it's basically tradition for us at this point to found a Merc company whenever we have a Martial Hero/Genius in control. The only question is being able to pay for them. If we pay our Mercs from our Wealth budget and we're not in a Gilded Age, we're currently Wealth neutral. As soon as Blackmouth reforms, we're going to get +3 Wealth from their Markets each turn and Valleyhome will reform and give an additional +2. We could do it on our current level of income.
The Harmurri might stabilize given Alyx's skill, it's hard to say. Now there's no illusion that the Harmurri have basically degenerated to a rump state. They exist entirely at our sufferance and support. It's going to be hard for them to meaningfully reform since they are so far behind.
@Academia Nut how much longer is Alyx likely to live? Additionally, if he were to from a Mercenary Company, how would it be organized?