Paths of Civilization

[BungieONI]

@Abby Normal @PrimalShadow it seems I misread something AN said last night. Thought the colony hadn't quite happened yet.

Whoops

I also missed some Mysticism refund in there.

 

[Rakuhn]

I assume that we theoretically have enough available labor to satisfy all of our cities; if we don't, having our EE low or high shouldn't matter.

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Look at it as hiring. As an example, a single city offers 1000 coins as a salary for every scribe that it can employ and for simplicity's sake can employ 1000 scribes. They get 1500 applicants. A second city springs up and offers 1000 coins as a salary (all else being equal) for every scribe it can employ, and they get 500 applicants. That leaves them with a 500 person deficit, as 2/3 of the people that were qualified to be a scribe and were willing to take a 1000 coin salary are already employed. So the second city needs to raise its salaries to be able to attract more scribes.

As more cities are built, eventually it will reach the point that no amount of coins will be able to secure an additional scribe. The remainder of the population is either unqualified or has no interest in scribing. And even if you had all the farmers in the world, it turns out you can't effectively run a city if you don't have specialized professions to manage it.

It isn't solely a manpower issue, where you can fulfill every possible role with interchangeable population units, but a skill, ability, drive, and competition issue. Obviously other factors, such as distance, political rights, and infrastructure can play a role, but they can also be rolled into the generic coin (or utility point).

It is possible that building an academy, and thus increasing the professionalization of the non-patrician class, will make it easier to found cities.

 

[PrimalShadow]

Something that has not been mentioned is the narrative of having leeway in our forests. So far, our priests have given their go ahead for increased collection under the promise of increased forest planting.

Guilds roll their eyes, but comply. Hey, might be annoying to spend time on something like that when there is already a ton of trees, but there has never been a wood shortage so the Priests must know what they are talking about right?

The problem arises when we have locked up all our renewable forests. Our Priests have forbidden the increased of cutting, but all it takes is one man thinking he knows better.

He passes the threshold and...nothing happens. Outpacing the growth is a long-term detrimental effect, but here and now, this guy sees none of that and assumes the priests are full of crock.

Take that and let it happen everywhere and the people are going to start wondering if it really is that necessary.

That is not a direction we want to go.

Click to shrink...

This is a a pretty good reason to push for more Kilns.

As a note, we have everything we need to push for Kilns next turn... but not the Wealth. In fact, at 5 wealth our options right now are a bit... lacking.

However, we ARE at 18 Econ. That offers us an excellent opportunity. If we use PSN to gain +10 Econ, we would actually overflow by 4 into Wealth, not to mention finish the Guild Quest. We should consider choosing our reaction in a way that doesn't interfere with this, so we have wealth to spend next turn.

 

[PrimalShadow]

Look at it as hiring. As an example, a single city offers 1000 coins as a salary for every scribe that it can employ and for simplicity's sake can employ 1000 scribes. They get 1500 applicants. A second city springs up and offers 1000 coins as a salary (all else being equal) for every scribe it can employ, and they get 500 applicants. That leaves them with a 500 person deficit, as 2/3 of the people that were qualified to be a scribe and were willing to take a 1000 coin salary is already employed. So the second city needs to raise its salaries to be able to attract more scribes.

As more cities are built, eventually it will reach the point that no amount of coins will be able to secure an additional scribe. The remainder of the population is either unqualified, or has no interest in scribing. And even if you had all the farmers in the world, it turns out you can't effectively run a city if you don't have specialized professions to run it.

It isn't solely a manpower issue, where you can fulfill every possible role with interchangeable population units, but a skill, ability, drive, and competition issue. Obviously other factors, such as distance, political rights, and infrastructure can play a role, but they can also be rolled into the generic coin (or utility point).

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Fine. Then my logical question is: Why doesn't it get easier as our population grows? For example, we just added a pair of provinces from our Land Reform. I assume that should have increased population density; shouldn't that mean we can support more True Cities?

Or lets take a different example. Imagine we integrate WW, along with the True City at its capital. Suddenly, we have all of its population (skilled clerks included) and are offering the same rates in its cities, but those cities can no longer maintain True City status.

What happened?

 

[BungieONI]

This is a a pretty good reason to push for more Kilns.

As a note, we have everything we need to push for Kilns next turn... but not the Wealth. In fact, at 5 wealth our options right now are a bit... lacking.

However, we ARE at 18 Econ. That offers us an excellent opportunity. If we use PSN to gain +10 Econ, we would actually overflow by 4 into Wealth, not to mention finish the Guild Quest. We should consider choosing our reaction in a way that doesn't interfere with this, so we have wealth to spend next turn.

Click to shrink...

I think you mean the priest quest?

Our wealth being where it is, is rather irksome. We grab the priest quest, overflow +4 into wealth, get to 9 wealth.
That's leaves us in a slightly more flexible area, though taking a Plant action is possible in the main turn, given us having completed the priest quest and not needing to be as concerned about LTE.

 

[Kiba]

Take black soil, expand econ. Overflow to wealth by 2 econ, but we will have more LTE to plant poppies with.

 

[Umi-san]

E = pop influx into cities to pay for the ppl who are dying in the cities
EE = people who might conceivably want to do something other than a city. Low EE = land enclosure. High EE = Walden. (not factually; just thumbnails)

As the pop grows cities grow in size and density. Similarly, as the pop grows our LTE is diminished, showing EE we have in the country that has been semi-permanently assigned to agriculture to support the current pop.

 

[PrimalShadow]

I think you mean the priest quest?

Our wealth being where it is, is rather irksome. We grab the priest quest, overflow +4 into wealth, get to 9 wealth.
That's leaves us in a slightly more flexible area, though taking a Plant action is possible in the main turn, given us having completed the priest quest and not needing to be as concerned about LTE.

Click to shrink...

Hmm. Yeah, that makes sense.

Though I guess it depends on what is happening this Midturn. I'm guessing we take the Ironworks action, but that immediately finishes a megaprohect, which may very well give us some extra stats to play with.



I'm really looking forward to Expand Economy actions that net 5 stats apiece. It's gonna be awesome!

 

[ctulhuslp]

We took ironwork as player action. The province did sec survey. So I wouldn't imagine that it won't count.

@ctulhuslp We can still build colossal wall in blackmouth. Also fortification annexes will go a long way in making cities able to withstand siege.

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Annexes? Mmmmm....no. I don't see it. Walls should guard the whole city, not only the palace (which is how Fortifications annex would be imitated by local Palaces).
Storehouses and Arsenals and Colossal City Walls are where it's at; so that it can sit besieged for a while.
Of course there is an issue: if Western Ymaryn leaked battering ram or nomads have other sources of siegecraft, everyone is fucked beyond belief.

Butm like...I am definitely going to campaign for Colossal Walls - Blackmouth or Main Watchtowers - North. It's kinda....nomads.

Something that has not been mentioned is the narrative of having leeway in our forests. So far, our priests have given their go ahead for increased collection under the promise of increased forest planting.

Guilds roll their eyes, but comply. Hey, might be annoying to spend time on something like that when there is already a ton of trees, but there has never been a wood shortage so the Priests must know what they are talking about right?

The problem arises when we have locked up all our renewable forests. Our Priests have forbidden the increased of cutting, but all it takes is one man thinking he knows better.

He passes the threshold and...nothing happens. Outpacing the growth is a long-term detrimental effect, but here and now, this guy sees none of that and assumes the priests are full of crock.

Take that and let it happen everywhere and the people are going to start wondering if it really is that necessary.

That is not a direction we want to go.

Click to shrink...

Yeah, that's the issue too: only priests and, to a lesser degree, yeomen actually care about forests. Others may care if they are religious, but not because they have any idea of long-term consequences.
So even being on 28/28 is something to avoid, in all honesty, because I am not sure how painful wrestling guilds away from unsustainable foresting is going to be.

Granted, we might as well bite the bullet and explicitly do it to provoke societal upheaval and purge anti-environmental elements of society because it is going to be an issue eventually, but maybe wait until Dam, liquidity crisis and forting up North?

 

[Romv]

Granted, we might as well bite the bullet and explicitly do it to provoke societal upheaval and purge anti-environmental elements of society because it is going to be an issue eventually, but maybe wait until Dam, liquidity crisis and forting up North?

Click to shrink...

This is reeeaaallly really really really dangerous. Unsustainable forestry has consequences that are not immediately noticeable, and the Ymaryn don't have the long-term view we do, I'm not sure we'd be able to actually provide the shock needed to make them change their ways before it's too late.

 

[Rakuhn]

Fine. Then my logical question is: Why doesn't it get easier as our population grows? For example, we just added a pair of provinces from our Land Reform. I assume that should have increased population density; shouldn't that mean we can support more True Cities?

Or lets take a different example. Imagine we integrate WW, along with the True City at its capital. Suddenly, we have all of its population (skilled clerks included) and are offering the same rates in its cities, but those cities can no longer maintain True City status.

What happened?

Click to shrink...

1. IIRC, our maximum number of cities is somewhere around our provinces+subordinates/2. So increasing our number of provinces should increase our theoretical city limit, even though the soft cap makes this mostly irrelevant.

2. We don't get an econ drip from settled farmland yet. Maybe as we improve agricultural productivity we will start seeing benefits in true city formation?

3. Western Wall becomes part of Ymaryn proper. The scribes and artisans see that they can earn much more/have higher standards of living in other cities, and leave to make their fortunes. Furthermore, with its loss of autonomy, Western Wall's need for mid level bureaucrats decreases substantially as administration relocates to more centralized control, leading to our version of layoffs.

 

[Umi-san]

Granted, we might as well bite the bullet and explicitly do it to provoke societal upheaval and purge anti-environmental elements of society because it is going to be an issue eventually, but maybe wait until Dam, liquidity crisis and forting up North?

Click to shrink...

I feel like the impact might not last - the only people who will really try to remember it are the priests and yeomen.
Better to just avoid the problem. Expanding Forest when there's still enough to spare can be taken as the King listening the advice of the priests & yeomen, and that's more or less what matters.

 

[ctulhuslp]

This is reeeaaallly really really really dangerous. Unsustainable forestry has consequences that are not immediately noticeable, and the Ymaryn don't have the long-term view we do, I'm not sure we'd be able to actually provide the shock needed to make them change their ways before it's too late.

Click to shrink...

Yeah, this is a problem; cure might involve strenghening Priests to counterbalance literally everyone anti-environmental combined, which is hilariously shitty idea but might be the best of options we will have in such situations. Because there is no way to actually prove it does not work in this age, barring strip-foresting neighbour conveniently dying with a bad case of climate change.

Which is why we need several slots worth of leeway: until we get good enough at science to grok and prove long-term climate changes (that's a looong ways off, barring, again, convenient death of neighbour to illustrate the point), we cannot afford the risk of this particular societal crisis, IMO, because it seems to be the one with only degrees of bad solutions.
Because we fundamentally lack tools (long-term data, way better knowledge of how large-scale ecosystems work, etc) to convince people, especially those who, like Guilds, won't want to be convinced because profits.

 

[DakkaMania]

I'm really looking forward to Expand Economy actions that net 5 stats apiece. It's gonna be awesome!

Click to shrink...

If it wasn't for the EE costs and the potential negative effects of overusing Black Soil, we could probably fund our Wealth demand entirely with Econ overflow given it's strength. Which is yet another reason for the Dam. If it boosts Econ Expansion options, the food supply will practically explode.

 

[ctulhuslp]

I feel like the impact might not last - the only people who will really try to remember it are the priests and yeomen.
Better to just avoid the problem. Expanding Forest when there's still enough to spare can be taken as the King listening the advice of the priests & yeomen, and that's more or less what matters.

Click to shrink...

Well, to fullfill it we need to either take up another passive forestry policy or take manual Secondary Forestry every turn.
Or take every PSN Main Forestry instead of Econ or surveys.

Or, given that our industry is only beginning to kick into high gear, all of the above. Plus Kilns, of course. Kilns for days.

 

[DakkaMania]

Yeah, this is a problem; cure might involve strenghening Priests to counterbalance literally everyone anti-environmental combined, which is hilariously shitty idea but might be the best of options we will have in such situations. Because there is no way to actually prove it does not work in this age, barring strip-foresting neighbour conveniently dying with a bad case of climate change.

Which is why we need several slots worth of leeway: until we get good enough at science to grok and prove long-term climate changes (that's a looong ways off, barring, again, convenient death of neighbour to illustrate the point), we cannot afford the risk of this particular societal crisis, IMO, because it seems to be the one with only degrees of bad solutions.
Because we fundamentally lack tools (long-term data, way better knowledge of how large-scale ecosystems work, etc) to convince people, especially those who, like Guilds, won't want to be convinced because profits.

Click to shrink...

We might have to bite the bullet and actually use coal if we find any. Part of that is also that we may need coke fuel for more advanced smelters. As long as it happens in moderation, it's okay. Besides, we keep planting forests to soak up all that carbon.

 

[PrimalShadow]

3. Western Wall becomes part of Ymaryn proper. The scribes and artisans see that they can earn much more/have higher standards of living in other cities, and leave to make their fortunes. Furthermore, with its loss of autonomy, Western Wall's need for mid level bureaucrats decreases substantially as administration relocates to more centralized control, leading to our version of layoffs.

Click to shrink...

But the entire hypothetical is predetermined by the assumption that standards of living are the same in both locations!

That was the example you raised, by the way - with all the scribes being offered the same 1000 coins. You just added at least a city worth of scribes to the labor pool; so why isn't it enough to fulfill a city's need at the same 1000-coin salary?


Furthermore, note that no many how many provinces we integrate (and therefore no matter how many scribes we add), the same remains true mechanically. Somehow, you can't recruit the scribes for the same pay. Why?

And don't talk about them needing to travel and therefore incurring an additional cost there; after all, we have established that they can't even rune a True City in their original province.

 

[BungieONI]

Hmm. Yeah, that makes sense.

Though I guess it depends on what is happening this Midturn. I'm guessing we take the Ironworks action, but that immediately finishes a megaprohect, which may very well give us some extra stats to play with.



I'm really looking forward to Expand Economy actions that net 5 stats apiece. It's gonna be awesome!

Click to shrink...

Something to consider: like you yourself noted this is an excellent chance to wrap up the priest quest. This prompted me to give some thought to our action ordering.

There are two ways we can go about this:

One, we take an Expand Econ action(either PSN or basic Reaction) and grab the priest quest. Then in the following main turn we slot the level 2 ironworks into our main. This completes both quests in two updates.

Two, we spend our mid turn option on the level 2 ironworks(likely but not certain to be available), roll the dice on getting reformers. If we do Priest Quest completes in three updates, four if we don't.

I'm also not sure how much of an issue reformers is going to be.

 

[LuciDreamer]

Will there ever be a point where we run out of sustainable forests? I mean, we only have so much land, right?

 

[PrimalShadow]

If it wasn't for the EE costs and the potential negative effects of overusing Black Soil, we could probably fund our Wealth demand entirely with Econ overflow given it's strength. Which is yet another reason for the Dam. If it boosts Econ Expansion options, the food supply will practically explode.

Click to shrink...

Huh?

What does overflowing have to do with EE?

You realize we refund most of the overflow? Arguably all, if overflow happens on a per-action instead of per-phase basis?

Well, to fullfill it we need to either take up another passive forestry policy or take manual Secondary Forestry every turn.

Click to shrink...

Or take a Secondary Kiln action every four turns. Easy enough to do, I would think; and a LOT cheaper than a policy.

 

[BungieONI]

Will there ever be a point where we run out of sustainable forests? I mean, we only have so much land, right?

Click to shrink...

In theory, yes. Very much yes. I expect for there to be a sustainable forest cap dependant on our provinces but it's a high cap.

 

[ctulhuslp]

We might have to bite the bullet and actually use coal if we find any. Part of that is also that we may need coke fuel for more advanced smelters. As long as it happens in moderation, it's okay. Besides, we keep planting forests to soak up all that carbon.

Click to shrink...

As long as we keep planting forests, sure. I've already voiced my scepticism, case in point above.
Although I don't think that's going to be healthy for city dwellers....

Will there ever be a point where we run out of sustainable forests? I mean, we only have so much land, right?

Click to shrink...

If nothing else, we can terraform steppes and push back nomads by literally forest-walking to our trade post. Might take a while, but imagine look on nega-SV faces.
But this is actually covered by Econ Expansion slots mechanics, and in this particular case I do not think there is a significant difference between narrative and mechanics - it represents free space good for farming, foresting or pastures we have within our borders, duh.

Or take a Secondary Kiln action every four turns. Easy enough to do, I would think; and a LOT cheaper than a policy.

Click to shrink...

Not enough; see this turn.
We took Kilns this time and still lost 1 forestry slot. So no, we are not taking them "Every four turns"; we are taking them every turn unless you fancy jumping 3-4 slots up in consumption and triggering Environmentalism Discussion Crisis aka Priesthood vs The World.
And when we run out of Kilns (they can cover only 12 more slots = 4 more turns, after all), we will have to do enough actions per turn to get 3 forest slots. Somehow.

Something to consider: like you yourself noted this is an excellent chance to wrap up the priest quest. This prompted me to give some thought to our action ordering.

There are two ways we can go about this:

One, we take an Expand Econ action(either PSN or basic Reaction) and grab the priest quest. Then in the following main turn we slot the level 2 ironworks into our main. This completes both quests in two updates.

Two, we spend our mid turn option on the level 2 ironworks(likely but not certain to be available), roll the dice on getting reformers. If we do Priest Quest completes in three updates, four if we don't.

I'm also not sure how much of an issue reformers is going to be.

Click to shrink...

> implying we have an option of not taking Main Forests come this PSN

 

[Kiba]

Annexes? Mmmmm....no. I don't see it. Walls should guard the whole city, not only the palace (which is how Fortifications annex would be imitated by local Palaces).
Storehouses and Arsenals and Colossal City Walls are where it's at; so that it can sit besieged for a while.

Click to shrink...

Pretty sure that @veekie said that a fortified palace means that we will be able to ration effectively rather than have our population panic and take out all the grains. So, it extends the survival of a besieged city, and even if the population get massacred due to breach, the inner fortification buy time for other cities.

It's defense in depth.

This is reeeaaallly really really really dangerous. Unsustainable forestry has consequences that are not immediately noticeable, and the Ymaryn don't have the long-term view we do, I'm not sure we'd be able to actually provide the shock needed to make them change their ways before it's too late.

Click to shrink...

But we have to base it on something. Basing it on current potential demand, especially when said current potential demand is incredibly unlikely to materialize (full ironworks would kill us on tech costs), is perfectly valid for a five-ten turn horizon. At five turns, we will either have another true city which will allow us another policy, or we can re-evaluate our policy distribution based on any new developments.

Click to shrink...

You are not taking into account three things: Our insatiable and growing demand for iron. Jevon's Paradox, and the limit of charcoal kiln technology.

Mechanically, we can just keep using charcoal kiln to cut down charcoal consumption, but the reality is that we won't be able to keep using it. Charcoal kiln can only get so efficient.

Jevon Paradox's also mean it is likely that increased efficiency will lead to increased demand. Finally, cheaper iron will lead to more uses for it, driving up the need for more ironwork.

Evolving ship technology and new uses of wood will only put increased strain on our wood supply.

Instead of planning for the foreseeable worst case scenario, we should make sure we have plenty of wood, more than what we know what to do with it, because our demand is likely to grow faster than what we can ancipiate.

And we do not want to go down the route of the Guilds questioning why they can't cut down more trees.

 

[Abby Normal]

Huh?

What does overflowing have to do with EE?

You realize we refund most of the overflow? Arguably all, if overflow happens on a per-action instead of per-phase basis?


Or take a Secondary Kiln action every four turns. Easy enough to do, I would think; and a LOT cheaper than a policy.

Click to shrink...

I'm pretty sure overflow refunding happens on a per-phase basis. I'm not at all confident i could find the post, but i'm pretty sure i got AN confirmation on that at some point, and its how i've been handling it. If nothing else, overflow itself is only triggered on a per-phase basis, so it makes sense if refunds did as well.

 

[Glassware]

Will there ever be a point where we run out of sustainable forests? I mean, we only have so much land, right?

Click to shrink...

I believe at one point it was calced out that a sustainably harvested, forested lowlands should be able to propel us through the industrial revolution by sheer charcoal volume, at which point we invest in cleaner fuels.