Econ Projection assuming the current winning composite of
[PSN] Bit more black soil (Sec Black Soil, -1 Centralization)
[Conq] Take the northern lowlands (Thunder Speakers become vassal, Txolla annex additional territory, gain Ruined Thunder Horse as vassal, remainder fragment, -4 Econ and 4 temporary Econ damage from supporting wrecked vassal)
[Refugee] Send out runners that you have food and intact farmland (6 temporary Econ damage, -6-8 Econ Expansion, -1 Stability, chance of further loss, +6-8 Econ next turn)
[PttS] 0 Stability
[Diplo] Send out reassurances (Sec Trade Mission to Khemetri, Trelli, and Harmurri)

Base stats:
Econ: 18 (+1) [-3+14]
EE: 11 [+3-14]

Black Soil: +2-3 EE. Conservatively, lets say 2 EE.
Conquest: -4 Econ, 3 EE refunded due to true cities. -4 additional temp Econ damage.
Refugee: Gain 6-8 Econ next turn, at the cost of 6-8 EE damage now, plus 6 temp damage now. Pessimism in this case is losing EE and gaining Econ, so assume 8.
Diplo: no effect on Econ.

So the result becomes:
Econ: 14 (+9) [-3+14] {4}
EE: 8 [-3+14]

Then, if we spend no Econ next turn, we would go to 14+9+11 = 34 Econ and 8-11 = -3 EE. Of course, overflow means that it would actually be 18 Econ + 16 (overflow to other stats), and EE would be 0 (since we get 3 EE refunded by true cities). HOWEVER, the truth is that we would trigger the overflow-to-colonies bit from Population Explosion, so our acutal result would be more like 18 Econ + 8 (overflow) with 8 EE.
The NTP is unnecessary and will require a merc company that leaves us exposed.

this is the whole depth astronomy thing veekie is bringing up
It can be performed w/o relying on a still pool, w/ no loss in accuracy because whatever we build can be made to accommodate our standards, whereas the pool is much harder to change.

Horse Valley also has cultural benefits via being in the neglected Stonepen and bordering the Heavens Hawks - who have recently taken in new nomadic tribes-, better sight lines in case we do want to study the sun and moon or the wider horizon, etc.
 
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Wait, so why are you doing Black Soil? We need that centralization.
There's a 50% chance we'll enter a golden age and if we do, we'll be losing 1 more Econ Expansion than we would otherwise and that'll put us into negative Econ Expansion even taking into account the colonies. That would end the Population Explosion and the overcrowding could negate any advantage the higher Centralisation would give.
 
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Right now they are loyal, but they are a different cultural with different agenda. So them getting more power and room of growth is a very dangerous thing in the long run. Txolla can start developing their own ideas and tech once they absorbed all we are willing to share, and they can afford development thanks to the fertile lowland.
then start influencing them and then push for integrating them.

ignoring the chance to take over the eastern river and eradicate the threat that the TH pose to us for the sake of avoiding a vassal who has only grown under us is foolish.
 
[X][Diplo] Send out reassurances (Sec Trade Mission to Khemetri, Trelli, and Harmurri)
[X][Diplo] Let's maybe spread out in case the gods throw another bolt (Found Far Northern Trade Post)
[X][PttS] Horse Valley
[X][PttS] 0 Stability
[X][Refugee] Use the military to evacutate as many as possible (8 temporary Econ damage, -9-11 Econ Expansion, -2 Stability, chance of further loss, +9-11 Econ next turn, incompatible with most ambitious conquest option)
[X][Conq] Take the northern lowlands (Thunder Speakers become vassal, Txolla annex additional territory, gain Ruined Thunder Horse as vassal, remainder fragment, -4 Econ and 4 temporary Econ damage from supporting wrecked vassal)
[X][PSN] Bit more black soil (Sec Black Soil, -1 Centralization)
Adhoc vote count started by Concho117 on Aug 6, 2017 at 1:44 AM, finished with 96728 posts and 62 votes.
 
[X] [Conq] Take the northern lowlands (Thunder Speakers become vassal, Txolla annex additional territory, gain Ruined Thunder Horse as vassal, remainder fragment, -4 Econ and 4 temporary Econ damage from supporting wrecked vassal)
[X] [Refugee] Send out runners that you have food and intact farmland (6 temporary Econ damage, -6-8 Econ Expansion, -1 Stability, chance of further loss, +6-8 Econ next turn)
[X] [PttS] Horse Valley
[X] [PttS] 0 Stability
[X] [Diplo] Let's maybe spread out in case the gods throw another bolt (Found Far Northern Trade Post)
[X] [Diplo] Let's maybe spread out in case the gods throw another bolt (Found Far Northern Trade Post)

This is probably one of the best chances to found the NTP that we're gonna get, seeing as the nomad chief is rapidly going through the steppes, beating other tribes up and telling them "do not mess with those guys who offer to trade with you, the gods will kill you if you do"
 
There's a 50% chance we'll enter a golden age and if we do, we'll be losing 1 more Econ Expansion than we would otherwise and that'll put us into negative Econ Expansion even taking into account the colonies. That would end the Population Explosion and the overcrowding could negate any advantage the higher Centralisation would give.
So has GA changed its benefits then? According to this quote from the first time we got a Golden Age, it adds 1 EE to our supply, not detract from it
Golden Age Started!
Requirements Discovered:
At least two stats maxed out, maximum stability
Benefits: +1 Prestige for first Golden Age, +1 Econ Expansion/turn, special sudden advancements possible
Ends with: 0 or lower stability, ???
 
I want to develop the lore behind it as well as possibly find an underground river
If you want to do those things, couldn't you just build a temple there?

Finding an underground river does not seem like something that would synergize with a place called "Place to the Stars". I would imagine those tend to focus upwards towards the stars, and Horse Valley seems to be the best place to get a clear view of the stars.

Black Mirror could let you see it through a reflection, but it would be much smaller and more limited in scope compared to looking at the actual stars.
 
then start influencing them and then push for integrating them.

ignoring the chance to take over the eastern river and eradicate the threat that the TH pose to us for the sake of avoiding a vassal who has only grown under us is foolish.

So is taking up two additional vassal when there is a Nomad King looking around for a target. Do you want to expand our border that much to contact 2-3 different polity?

We do need to protect our vassals if they are under attack.
 
I didn't say econ though. I said econ expansion which is essentially a representation of the room for our newly born productive labor force to move into - aka econ.
Okay, let me put it differently, then.
Our pop-explosion gives -14 EE. However, our true cities each consume 1 Econ, and therefore refund 1 EE. Furthermore, overflow (which is a different effect and therefore is refunded separately) also refunds 3 EE (our cap from 3 cities). As a result, assuming we overflow at least 3, we are only using 8 EE per turn here.
 
[X][Conq] Take the northern lowlands (Thunder Speakers become vassal, Txolla annex additional territory, gain Ruined Thunder Horse as vassal, remainder fragment, -4 Econ and 4 temporary Econ damage from supporting wrecked vassal)
[X][Refugee] Send out runners that you have food and intact farmland (6 temporary Econ damage, -6-8 Econ Expansion, -1 Stability, chance of further loss, +6-8 Econ next turn)
[X][Diplo] Victory lap (Main Salt Gift)
[X][PSN] Bit more black soil (Sec Black Soil, -1 Centralization)

Goofy and duckies, @Karugus why do you have to be so reasonable?????

Using well thought out arguments is cheating :mad:
 
[X] [Conq] Take the northern lowlands (Thunder Speakers become vassal, Txolla annex additional territory, gain Ruined Thunder Horse as vassal, remainder fragment, -4 Econ and 4 temporary Econ damage from supporting wrecked vassal)
[X] [Refugee] Send out runners that you have food and intact farmland (6 temporary Econ damage, -6-8 Econ Expansion, -1 Stability, chance of further loss, +6-8 Econ next turn)
[X] [PttS] Black Mirror
[X] [PttS] 0 Stability
[X] [Diplo] Send out reassurances (Sec Trade Mission to Khemetri, Trelli, and Harmurri)
[X] [PSN] Bit more black soil (Sec Black Soil, -1 Centralization)
 
This is probably one of the best chances to found the NTP that we're gonna get, seeing as the nomad chief is rapidly going through the steppes, beating other tribes up and telling them "do not mess with those guys who offer to trade with you, the gods will kill you if you do"
Why would this make it so that we don't have to dedicate a merc camp to stop the northerners from attacking us for three turns? It's better to keep our martial close to home and thus keep us safe.

So is taking up two additional vassal when there is a Nomad King looking around for a target. Do you want to expand our border that much to contact 2-3 different polity?

We do need to protect our vassals if they are under attack.
A Nomad King who is afraid of us, along with everyone else. To the east the TH border the ocean, if you look at a map. To the north is literally just the nomads, still. The south is still the Swamp Folk. The west is the Khem and the ocean and the Trell.

We're touching no one new.

There is no risk. And while there is an obligation to influence and protect, there is also gain.
 
[X] [Refugee] Take as many who run to you (4 temporary Econ damage, -4-5 Econ Expansion,+4-5 Econ next turn, chance of stability drop)

Let's not fuck wrth stability
 
If you want to do those things, couldn't you just build a temple there?

Finding an underground river does not seem like something that would synergize with a place called "Place to the Stars". I would imagine those tend to focus upwards towards the stars, and Horse Valley seems to be the best place to get a clear view of the stars.

Black Mirror could let you see it through a reflection, but it would be much smaller and more limited in scope compared to looking at the actual stars.
The newest update calls it a temple. It is likely by building it there, we will get more mystic beliefs added to our mythology, and the area could potentially be explored there with construction going on.
 
Once again, I am confused as to why the thread doesn't want to capitalize on this perfect opportunity to gain inroads with our neighbors and begin properly influencing them, and instead wants to build a far flung trade post to the North, which the traders will likely begin agitating for soon anyways in order to get more dominances in goods that our currently unneeded.

People then begin to wonder why all of our neighbors take a swing at us as soon as they think they can.
 
Okay, let me put it differently, then.
Our pop-explosion gives -14 EE. However, our true cities each consume 1 Econ, and therefore refund 1 EE. Furthermore, overflow (which is a different effect and therefore is refunded separately) also refunds 3 EE (our cap from 3 cities). As a result, assuming we overflow at least 3, we are only using 8 EE per turn here.
Then why does our statistics page say we are only gaining three and losing 14 EE? Is AN not accounting for that?
 
Once again, I am confused as to why the thread doesn't want to capitalize on this perfect opportunity to gain inroads with our neighbors and begin properly influencing them, and instead wants to build a far flung trade post to the North, which the traders will likely begin agitating for soon anyways in order to get more dominances in goods that our currently unneeded.

People then begin to wonder why all of our neighbors take a swing at us as soon as they think they can.
I considered it for a bit, then realized all our actions were being done through the lens of a relatively poor Diplo king.
 
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