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Paths of Civilization

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So I was looking at the map, and I realized something. Blackmouth, the province that sits on the river delta where the two great rivers of the steppes spill into the sea, must be a farming Mecca. Probably why it's called blackmouth.

I mean those two rivers are each at least equal to rivers like the Tigris, Euphrates, Nile, Mississippi, or the Colorado. They're huge and they carry sediment from coniferous forests through highly fertile steppelands and out to the ocean.
 
ThrawnCA said:
Haven't you read @veekie's analysis of it? I disagree with him on the West, but he does make lots of good points.

We would need to Support Subordinate without fail for the next three turns. Possibly double support. They will probably take 1-3 climate damage to Econ per turn, and they only start with 2.

The West will only tie us up if the Trell react negatively.
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Quote his analysis?

He makes good points if you buy into his assumptions. I rarely do.

Oh, his analysis was that:
a) They would take climate damage which is:
-i. unsupported; establishing ourselves in a new territory is new, and
-ii. Even if we're assuming the climate change fluctuation counts, GSF would seem to counter the climate damage after an initial bout.
-iii. Yes, obviously adapting to a new climate is different than adapting to climate fluctuations. So how can you assume we'll suffer 1-3 Econ damage as a result for 3+ turns?
b) We would need to support them every single turn for the next three turns.
-i. Even if they suffered 1-3 climate damage, they still - shockingly - have access to the Expand Econ action (+2 for a secondary) and
- ii. They have a March negating the need for martial.
 
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Umi-san said:
He makes good points if you buy into his assumptions. I rarely do.
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He makes good points regardless of whether or not you agree with his assumptions. He has his opinions and interpretations, you have yours. All of the information we, as a group, can tease from our analysis of this game is valuable for our consideration. If nothing else, @veekie is a spectacular analyst.
 
pbluekan said:
To be fair, this is kind of guaranteed. It basically cuts off their last major supplier of tin on this side of the Straight of Trell. (Yes, I am using that name from now on.)
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It's kinda not guaranteed though. From the update:

That might trigger a fight that the People would have a hard time supporting, but the Red Banner Company could be deployed to help the location stay safe while it was getting established and built. Hopefully they could also just use trade and shifting wealth around to get the Trelli to be less aggressive towards their neighbours, rather than encouraging strife for profit.

The update lists two major things that the Trellli can do. They can either try to pick a fight with us, which AN described as being difficult but doable, or they decide that picking a fight isn't worth it and stop reaving as aggressively in the area.
 
pbluekan said:
He makes good points regardless of whether or not you agree with his assumptions. He has his opinions and interpretations, you have yours. All of the information we, as a group, can tease from our analysis of this game is valuable for our consideration. If nothing else, @veekie is a spectacular analyst.
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Sure. I'd say that he's a spectacular analyst up until he includes his own opinions and interpretations. As is normal, if you have different assumptions, opinions, and interpretations you will not agree with someone else's.

Edit: Also, as far as I can tell, the Trelli produce their own tin.
 
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Umi-san said:
Oh, his analysis was that:
a) They would take climate damage which is:
-i. unsupported; establishing ourselves in a new territory is new,
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Except we have WoAN that the climate might kill the post in the first three turns.

-ii. GSF would seem to counter climate damage after an initial bout)
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They don't have access to the forest, they're at least six months away.

b) We would need to support them every single turn for the next three turns.
-i. Even if they suffered 1-3 climate damage, they still - shockingly - have access to the Expand Econ action (+2 for a secondary)
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They need to build settlements for slots, though, so they might not have the actions to easily keep up with bad rolls.
- ii. They have a March negating the need for martial.
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Um... Do you mean mercs? Because they're so far past every March it isn't even funny.

But yeah, the support is about Econ not Martial.
 
ThrawnCA said:
Except we have WoAN that the climate might kill the post in the first three turns.
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We have more recent WoAN that the actual danger is from being attacked by locals.
We also lack any knowledge of what mechanical effect climate will have. I'd assume that cooler winters have a different effect than unstable/overly heavy rainfall and increased disease.
ThrawnCA said:
They need to build settlements for slots, though, so they might not have the actions to easily keep up with bad rolls.
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They automatically start with a settlement that would offer ~3-4 slots. They can then make a new settlement which gives them +1 econ anyways.

ThrawnCA said:
Um... Do you mean mercs? Because they're so far past every March it isn't even funny.
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Yeah, sorry.

Academia Nut said:
the People are able to rapidly adapt so long as they have access to their forests
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I'd argue that "their forests" means any forest we manage, which would include the ones around the Trade Post just as it includes the ones in Western Wall, Stallion Tribes, and Hatvalley, which are presumably not strongly contiguous with and identical to the ones in our core.
 
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Raichu1972 said:
It's kinda not guaranteed though.
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Ok, sure, it isn't guaranteed from the text of the update, but let's look at who the Trelli are, what they do, and their current motivations. Let's also run with the idea that tin is the oil of the Bronze Age.

The Trelli are traders who have recently discovered they can make more wealth by raiding and equipping their privateers with bronze weapons. They also make a killing from controlling the tin trade.

Putting that trade post near the TT is as good as a declaration that we will be controlling the supply of tin on this side of the Straight of Trell. Judging by the Khemetri reaction to us buying up all of the tin in the Trelli markets, there isn't a large supply on the Mediterranean side. This puts the Ymaryn in full control of the entire tin trade, which gives us a huge amount of leverage over the TrellI. Furthermore, it entirely stops their ability to further equip raiders and mercs, meaning they can't raid for slaves and make even more wealth. These all sound pretty good from our side of things except it is also the reason the Trelli will instantly wardec us and go after the Trade Post. There is no logical reason for them to just say "ok" when we are threatening the very bedrock and independence of their civilization.

It's guaranteed.
 
Raichu1972 said:
The update lists two major things that the Trellli can do. They can either try to pick a fight with us, which AN described as being difficult but doable, or they decide that picking a fight isn't worth it and stop reaving as aggressively in the area.
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If the Tin Tribes are important enough to actually threaten their mercenary operation, then I cannot imagine them deciding that the fight isn't worth it. Does that really sound plausible, that they would ignore an existential threat like that? And a large-scale collapse of their mercenaries would break them, so it is an existential threat.

OTOH, I find it much more plausible that if we leave them alone, then they may decide that piracy against us, assuming they actually develop piracy and it's not just rumor, is not worth it. If they antagonise us, they might lose the mercury supply.
 
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Hangwind said:
This one is special, in that my favorite vote of Stallions is losing because people are afraid they'll start a war while, at the exact same fucking time, voting to start a war.
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... Please cite someone who is saying "The stallions will start a war if we integrate them" as a reason for not integrating them.
 
Hangwind said:
This one is special, in that my favorite vote of Stallions is losing because people are afraid they'll start a war while, at the exact same fucking time, voting to start a war.
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You mean the integrate vote? Yeah I get ya. I think people are just leery of that because we have word of AN that we would be hugely over the martial cap to a point that unexpected things would happen. People don't like chaos.

Doesn't make it not hilariously hypocritical though.
 
ThrawnCA said:
@Manget, @SyntheticTrevor, @ScreenWatcher, @thatguy, @Krozart, @Painfulldarksoul, @redzonejoe, @Chrestomanci, @Noxious, @Random Shinobi, @NewAgeOfPower, @Golden Eyed King We have Word of AN that integrating the Stallion Tribes right now would push us way over the Martial cap and thus almost certainly cause big problems. Can you switch to a different vote?
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It will create an army that wants a fight and by god it will get it. Tis not suicide, not for us anyways. But what happens after the army gets its wars has a healthy chance of suicide. But tis not guaranteed.
 
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pbluekan said:
It's guaranteed
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Aside from the fact it's not.

Okay so they would need an assurance of victory, because if they've can't win in the next three or so turns they suffer a lack of Bronze and collpase. Thus they need to know they can take us before they collapse for it to be worth it for them.

They would also lose their largest trading partner by going to war, losing a partner with 5 Dominant goods and 2 leading goods would screw their trade based economy if it dragged on too long, they wouldn't be able to pay their mercs and they'd lose their trade importance to the south, thus they need to know they can win and regain trade soon, otherwise they screw themselves into near collapse within the next few generations.

Yes the Tin becomes more expensive, but they face a choice, pay a little extra or fight a war that has a definite chance of killing them within a few turns.
 
Six Line Omake:
*Trell pull up to the Tin Tribe River* *A Ymmaryn hut is already there*
Trell: Yo, this is ours now. I'm going to have to ask you to go back where you came from unless you want to buy from us.
Ymm: Um, no. We want their tin and you'll have to go through us to get it.
*Trell points at guards back at the ship* *Ymm points at the RB guard next to him*
*Trell frowns* *Ymm fingers his red sack, making the vials of mercury inside clink*
Trell: Fine. But you'd better not raise the price up too much.
 
Malevolo said:
Spike to the head and mass grave to all enemies of the state
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I thought we cracked them over the head with a club and then buried them in a mass grave?
Umi-san said:
Six Line Omake:
*Trell pull up to the Tin Tribe River* *A Ymmaryn hut is already there*
Trell: Yo, this is ours now. I'm going to have to ask you to go back where you came from unless you want to buy from us.
Ymm: Um, no. We want their tin and you'll have to go through us to get it.
*Trell points at guards back at the ship* *Ymm points at the RB guard next to him*
*Trell frowns* *Ymm fingers his red sack, making the vials of mercury inside clink*
Trell: Fine. But you'd better not raise the price up too much.
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Essentially
 
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ThrawnCA said:
Haven't you read @veekie's analysis of it? I disagree with him on the West, but he does make lots of good points.

We would need to Support Subordinate without fail for the next three turns. Possibly double support. They will probably take 1-3 climate damage to Econ per turn, and they only start with 2.
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pbluekan said:
He makes good points regardless of whether or not you agree with his assumptions. He has his opinions and interpretations, you have yours. All of the information we, as a group, can tease from our analysis of this game is valuable for our consideration. If nothing else, @veekie is a spectacular analyst.
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My problem is that he sprinkles it with lies.

He stated that ths Northern Trade Post would require 5 turns of effort before we see benefits, despite the fact that AN said only three turns of potentially needing assistance. This also ignores how we saw benefits from our Greenshore Trading Post as soon as we built it, not some turns after.
 
VoidZero said:
Hope accounts for about ~30%, rest are split between salt, fact spinning, and meme. :p

Also no rebels allowed!
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In order to ensure order and the continuing stability the The People this thread will be reorganized into...

!The First Ymaryn Empire!​

FOR A SAFE AND SECURE PEOPLE!


​
We shall bring Greater Justice, Divine Stewardship, and Joyous Symphony to all the lesser peoples.​
 
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