[X] Send experts
[X] [Secondary] New Settlement
[X] [Secondary] Expand Fishing

Fuck. We have tree cankers. There are a couple of different possible causes for this, but one in particular is worrying. Stress. Stress is caused when a tree isn't suited for its environment. And we might be the cause. After all, the update mentions that all of the tribes that used to live in those hills have drained away. The trees though, they were used to the presence of humans, with all of the changes we bring to an environment. Without humans, those same trees just aren't as viable as they once were, and the trees that do fine without humans are a long way out, so they can't repopulate the area as quickly. And the dying trees attract diseases which then spread the blight further. Two pieces of evidence support this. First, we seem to be finding evidence of humans in the initial blight areas. Second, our trees are totally fine. If the only difference between healthy and sick is the presence of humans, well, it kind of says what the cause is doesn't it?

Which is why I want to establish a new settlement. We're always going to struggle against the blight unless we get new people up there or less human dependent trees get established. And if the less dependent trees get established, then we're going to havethe same problem again when we do settle up there, because the environment will have to adjust back to us.

@Academia Nut Have I hit the salient points?

edit because word from AN.


We still can't afford a new settlement. At all. And it's pretty much outright stated that we desperately need more black soil.

Edit: I guess pioneering spirit would help with a new settlement. A consideration for a future choice. I still don't think we can afford to not expand our economy this turn.
 
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I'd just like to not be dismissed out of hand next time I argue that the choice everyone's banding on has negative effects. I don't expect people to vote because I say so, I just expect my concerns not to be ignored "Oh no, giving power to OTHER PEOPLE doesn't reduce the power of the people we already have. That's stupid and not how government works," was the meat of people's arguments against me.
My argument against you was indeed because you were ignoring how government works, though I admit that the way in which you were defining centralization appears to be correct as interpreted by AN. I have yet to see negative effects, unless you count the decrease in the centralization stat as a negative effect in and of itself. Note that, as I admitted might occur, centralization decreased but was counterbalanced by an increase in hierarchy.

We still can't afford a new settlement. At all. And it's pretty much outright stated that we desperately need more black soil.
It depends on if the new settlement will actually decrease our economy in the long run. In the short run, we'll go down to 2 - which means we'll just be stable. In the long run, the farms that will be made with the New Settlement and the growth in easy access to X Y and Z resources will balance it out. Tbh, I don't get why people are not voting in black soil. It's explicitly stated in the text that the need is outweighing the supply. We can just do Black Soil - which provides an econ boost through the farms and orchards which it is also used in - and New Settlement at the same time.

Edit: We already expanded the forests last turn, and I don't think expanding the area of forest we manage will provide much more insight into the blight which is occurring in the areas we already control. More understanding will come with more time, and the more detailed knowledge of plant biology that comes with wider knowledge and microscopes.
 
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Should we expand the forest management then? Since it covers learning about the forest ecosystem as well as expanding the amount of forest we manage. So maybe if we pick that we could potentially peer into the causes of the infection which would be a huge boon to the people's understanding of forestry.
 
We still can't afford a new settlement. At all. And it's pretty much outright stated that we desperately need more black soil.
Honestly, the need for Black Soil is real. I hate to do it but:

[X] Send experts
[X] [Secondary] New Settlement
[X] [Secondary] Black Soil

I know, people want to expand our fishing village and snails, and so do I! But we're in a war. It might not be against humans, but a war none-the-less. We need to win the war. Then we can deal with other issues. More, I think Black Soil will let us get a bit of a boost to our economy since it does make our farms better too. And don't forget, we have Pioneering Spirit, which I think means that if we get too low on Econ it will automatically bounce back up as people think of new stuff to try.
 
My argument against you was indeed because you were ignoring how government works, though I admit that the way in which you were defining centralization appears to be correct as interpreted by AN. I have yet to see negative effects, unless you count the decrease in the centralization stat as a negative effect in and of itself.
The negative effects are rather obvious. Centralization as defined by AN directly affects collective action strength; so even if the bureaucratic expansion boosted collective action strength, the subsequent loss of centralization ended up making the main argument you made for expansion moot, that being "if we do this, we will get more collective actions/action strength."

We will not get more actions, not by seeking them out. AN has gone through quests and quests and quests, and the biggest thing he's ever learned is that allowing unlimited action expansion doesn't work. While we can't do more things, we can certainly do them better, which was the best argument for expanded education.
 
I know, people want to expand our fishing village and snails, and so do I! But we're in a war. It might not be against humans, but a war none-the-less. We need to win the war. Then we can deal with other issues. More, I think Black Soil will let us get a bit of a boost to our economy since it does make our farms better too. And don't forget, we have Pioneering Spirit, which I think means that if we get too low on Econ it will automatically bounce back up as people think of new stuff to try.

Not really?
Pros: Whenever stability drops, Econ increases as the political losers find something else to do with their time. New ideas introduced by foreigners are also more quickly adopted, and new settlements are established more quickly.
Cons: Whenever stability drops, also lose Centralization as pioneers break away from central authority figures

It means that stability drops will boost economy and new ideas and settlements are quicker established.
Actually, second one is applicable. We do have boost to quicker establishment of settlements, always.
Okay, this makes New Settlement more attractive.
 
Well...I guess with rising complexity of challenges only some families will have time for children to learn all this stuff, so this is somewhat inevitable, and caste of specialist advisers will help to mitigate negative effects, so...I still want to push for education when possible, but we'll have to live with this.
The thing is, certain jobs are just inherently better done by those that have the mentality for it. Semi-hereditary means that we will have a core of experienced people doing the same jobs for generations, with room for newcomers as well. This is somewhat ideal as it means we have traditions that are strong for certain areas providing stability, while the steady influx of new blood will prevent the stagnation inherent to fully Hereditary positions.
 
The thing is, certain jobs are just inherently better done by those that have the mentality for it. Semi-hereditary means that we will have a core of experienced people doing the same jobs for generations, with room for newcomers as well. This is somewhat ideal as it means we have traditions that are strong for certain areas providing stability, while the steady influx of new blood will prevent the stagnation inherent to fully Hereditary positions.

We will see how it works out. Having specialist advisers will mean that our 'country' is probably quite scalable, because Chief can always offload tasks on advisers, so we will be able to grow in size after this crisis fairly efficiently due to bureaucracy.
Like, look at goddamn China and its size and how, despite being such a behemoth, it was still fairly educated and efficient vast majority of the time.

The negative effects are rather obvious. Centralization as defined by AN directly affects collective action strength; so even if the bureaucratic expansion boosted collective action strength, the subsequent loss of centralization ended up making the main argument you made for expansion moot, that being "if we do this, we will get more collective actions/action strength."

We will not get more actions, not by seeking them out. AN has gone through quests and quests and quests, and the biggest thing he's ever learned is that allowing unlimited action expansion doesn't work. While we can't do more things, we can certainly do them better, which was the best argument for expanded education.

Bureaucracy will, on the other hand, make us not require Chief to be superman, and will give the system room to grow with rising complexity of life and, in perspective, state. I think so, at least.
 
Fishing vs. Snails
Snails provide more luxuries (dye) but fishing is IMO a better choice. Fishing gives some luxuries as well as food. With the chaos going around with our trading partners, there will likely be less demand for luxuries and more demand for food. Plus, fishing might mean better boats which would be really nice.

Fishing vs. New Settlement
This one is harder since the two are not directly comparable. The settlement has a chance of reducing the time it takes to complete the mega project, but it has its own economic cost to get started. This will likely cause our economy to drop by two full points if we do this, and I'm not sure we can afford that. This also means no additional trade goods, not as much more food, and will consume some of our black soil as we set up the farms around the new settlement.

It's closer than I thought between fishing and settlement, but I think that fishing is best.
 
[X] Send experts
[X] [Secondary] Black Soil
[X] [Secondary] Expand Fishing

If we expand fishing we can use the bones of the fishes on black soil, winch will amplify the potency of the fertilizer, and another thing, we NEED to find Hardwood Trees, with DEEP ROOTS so we can stop the rain washing our efforts away.

Another thing is that we can sell black soil when its production become stable, because who would't want fertilizer?
 
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The negative effects are rather obvious. Centralization as defined by AN directly affects collective action strength; so even if the bureaucratic expansion boosted collective action strength, the subsequent loss of centralization ended up making the main argument you made for expansion moot, that being "if we do this, we will get more collective actions/action strength."

We will not get more actions, not by seeking them out. AN has gone through quests and quests and quests, and the biggest thing he's ever learned is that allowing unlimited action expansion doesn't work. While we can't do more things, we can certainly do them better, which was the best argument for expanded education.
1) I seriously have no idea what "collective action strength" is. Please define it at some point, as I asked last argument. 2) AN stated, in a question as to whether we'd ever be able to do 4 secondary actions rather than 1 major and 2 secondary, that we might be able to do so if we develop hierarchy/administration sufficiently. This allows for an increased number of actions. 3) My argument was based on how bureaucracy affects real life. In real life, having an immediate number of people who are already specialists recruited into your projects helps you do things more effectively in the short run than training and equal number of people who are specialists in everything. It is also cheaper for the number of people you get out of it, assuming the same amount of time has to be spent learning to the same depth.

I cannot contest the long term benefits of an educational system that is made mandatory for youths and the general population at large. I can and will contest, however, the positive effects of an educational system made available largely for those privileged classes with time to attend it, especially if the educational system is largely targeted at creating leaders rather than sages.

I'm pretty sure 3 was our stable, not 2.
*shrug* I'm talking out of my ass in regards to the value of numbers. It just makes sense that we'd be stable, cus we're just dedicating more people to addressing the forest, not necessarily taking away all of our farmers and etc.

The thing is, certain jobs are just inherently better done by those that have the mentality for it. Semi-hereditary means that we will have a core of experienced people doing the same jobs for generations, with room for newcomers as well. This is somewhat ideal as it means we have traditions that are strong for certain areas providing stability, while the steady influx of new blood will prevent the stagnation inherent to fully Hereditary positions.
It depends on if "mentality" is the result of a) being raised in an environment that puts the appropriate "I'm a leader and know best and owe it to people" memes in your head or b) undergoing experiences in general that make you a driven and virtuous person. Regardless, the whole experienced leadership thing was about the tradition of providing better education for your children, and then preventing other people's children from getting that education, i.e. by preventing them from attending meetings, for one.

The bureaucracy has still allowed for an old-blood new-blood mix, regardless, as turnover happens due to lowly people getting a chance.

I still want education, like everyone, though.

[X] Send experts
[X] [Secondary] Black Soil
[X] [Secondary] Expand Fishing

If we expand fishing we can use the bones of the fishes on black soil, winch will amplify the potency of the fertilizer, and another thing, we NEED to find Hardwood Trees, with DEEP ROOTS so we can stop the rain washing our efforts away.
The problem with hardwood trees is that they're slow-growing. Our issue is less preventing the rain from washing our efforts away over the long term, and more from keeping it washing away the trees and soil that were placed there a year ago, as well as all of the smaller plants whose roots are preventing erosion, too.
 
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The negative effects are rather obvious. Centralization as defined by AN directly affects collective action strength; so even if the bureaucratic expansion boosted collective action strength, the subsequent loss of centralization ended up making the main argument you made for expansion moot, that being "if we do this, we will get more collective actions/action strength."

We will not get more actions, not by seeking them out. AN has gone through quests and quests and quests, and the biggest thing he's ever learned is that allowing unlimited action expansion doesn't work. While we can't do more things, we can certainly do them better, which was the best argument for expanded education.


Personally, I think both of those options had merit.

I feel we needed the presence of advisory for the types of projects were working on. In the long run, I think we will find that this choice will keep our society decently malleable. Rigid societies crack eventually and when they need to change, the only way out is societal upheaval. Which, sure it would boost our Econ, but by the same token we don't want or need it when we are fighting a war against the self destruction of our environment.

Equally, education would have been a spectacular choice. Throughout history it has been shown that education is almost singularly responsible for the permanent advancement of society. There are almost no ways it wouldn't have been beneficial, to this project, or future ones.

Eventually, when the choice comes around, we should undoubtedly pick education. The mix of education and specialist advisory is powerful. For now, though, I'll say this: we have had a talent for increasing our centralization throughout the whole quest, I doubt that will change.
 
The problem with hardwood trees is that they're slow-growing. Our issue is less preventing the rain from washing our efforts away over the long term, and more from keeping it washing away the trees and soil that were placed there a year ago, as well as all of the smaller plants whose roots are preventing erosion, too.

Them we need pioneer species on the area, and the only ones we have right now is Graminoid - Wikipedia, because of the pastures, so yeah, we plant grass to block the rain effect, them plant the trees after that.

The good thing is, our agricultural techniques will skyrocket when we end this insane project.
 
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[X] Send experts
[X] [Secondary] Black Soil
[X] [Secondary] Expand Pastures

We have two needs in econ to deal with this problem. First, is black soil to fight back the blight. Second, is the ability to move it in large quantities. Animals also can provide more source for excrement to add to the black soil. I feel this is a much superior option to fishing as a result for our current concerns.
 
Just a note: Fishing directly aids in making Black Soil.

Native Americans (some of them at least) had a practice of planting seeds with a fish because of how rich in nutrients the fish were. If we have more fish trash, we have more black soil.
 
[X] Send experts
[X] [Secondary] Black Soil
[X] [Secondary] Expand Pastures

We have two needs in econ to deal with this problem. First, is black soil to fight back the blight. Second, is the ability to move it in large quantities. Animals also can provide more source for excrement to add to the black soil. I feel this is a much superior option to fishing as a result for our current concerns.
Just a note: Fishing directly aids in making Black Soil.

Native Americans (some of them at least) had a practice of planting seeds with a fish because of how rich in nutrients the fish were. If we have more fish trash, we have more black soil.
Fishing aids in creating black soil as much as having more cows would: both fish waste and manure are valuable in producing black soil due to providing organic detritus and nutrients that saturate the char. We do not need more cows to move things into the forest: assuming that they can get through it w/o knocking down trees, we already have enough from the cow expansion when we built the wall. Additionally, fishing would eventually provide technology that we don't already have. It is good to plan for more turns than just the next.

Here's a link on activating charcoal. Consider googling "biochar" or "black soil" if you are into gardening, or want to be a more informed person.
 
Fishing aids in creating black soil as much as having more cows would: both fish waste and manure are valuable in producing black soil due to providing organic detritus and nutrients that saturate the char. We do not need more cows to move things into the forest: assuming that they can get through it w/o knocking down trees, we already have enough from the cow expansion when we built the wall. Additionally, fishing would eventually provide technology that we don't already have.

Bigger boats, bigger cargo boats to move all the char, manure, and fishing trash to the sites of the forest.
 
[X] Send experts
[X] [Secondary] Black Soil
[X] [Secondary] Expand Fishing

Okay, looking at this purely with our Economy stat in mind to see what we can afford. All of the following costs are of course simply guesses.
Potential costs:
Continuing the fight against the blight: 1-2 Economy every turn (Locked in)
Send Experts to the Confederacy: 1 Economy
Establishing a New Settlement: 1-2 Economy
Potential income:
Expand fishing: 1 Economy
Black soil: 1 Economy
Snail cultivation: 1-2 economy
Potential actions:
1. 3 starting Econ + Black Soil(1) + Expand Fishing(1) - Fight Blight(1-2) - Experts(1) = 2 to 3 Econ left.
2. 3 starting Econ + Black Soil(1) + Snail cultivation(1-2) - Fight Blight(1-2) - Experts(1) = 2 to 4 Econ left.
3. 3 starting Econ + Black Soil(1) - New Settlement(1-2) - Fight Blight(1-2) - Experts(1) = -2 to 1 Econ left.

In my mind, we'd like to keep our current Economy score at or above 2 at minimum. This means that we have to "earn" 2-3 Economy this turn since we're continuing with the Blight Fight and sending Experts is almost certain. We're already set to earn 1 Economy from Black Soil but we need to earn at least 1 more. This can be done in a number of ways but Fishing seems like a decent choice, since it also increases our food supply while it doesn't increase demand for more black soil.
I'd like to stress that I think picking New Settlement with only one additional econ action will likely result in an Economy of 1 at best and -2 at worst, which could have serious consequences up to and including the abandonment of the fight against the blight. I'd much rather be on the safe side and have a buffer in case something bad comes up.

EDIT: If we take a look at last turn, it seems pretty clear to me that Blight Fight has an Econ cost of 2 every turn:
4 Starting Econ + Black Soil(1) + Forest Management(1) - Bureaucracy(1) - Fight Blight(2) = 3 Econ left this turn.
Of course setting up the Bureaucracy might've cost 2 or Black Soil might not have earned us anything this turn, since much of it was used to fight the blight, so there's still a degree of uncertainty here.
 
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