@Academia Nut
Our Expand Economy slots didn't change despite the new settlements - was this intended?

I went with economy; we're going to want extra next turn for recovery, one way or another.
Economy gives us a bit more buffer which is nice, but we do still have 1 from the [Secondary] settlement last turn so we're not in major trouble on that front. There's also a reasonable chance that Iron will provide an econ boost similar to the effects of Copper, though it's by no means guaranteed.
Study Stars seems likely to have a chance to negate the stability loss since we'll be able to assure our people that we're watching closely to see how the gods react. If we can prove that the gods don't care if we use their weapons, then that'd be major pushback against the negative aspects of the trait (see how the previous pushback was "it's not hubris if we need them")

a main iron mine is explicitly going to have an effect in the midturn.
Midturn is still after all the war missions have been sent out and their effects evaluated.
 
I have to say I am very glad for how the matter of the mad "prophet" was resolved, not so much because of the specific means we found to treat mental illness (though they were certainly useful) but because we now have an entire group of people whose job it is to look at mental illness as mental illness.

When the next crazy person spouting portentous gibberish shows up there will at least one person in attendance who will be inclined to think madness (seen through a mystical lens granted) over prophecy.
 
Because acupuncture works...for pain relief. Like the update says.

Its only quackery when people treat an early painkiller as an all cure, which was said for pretty much every drug at some point

It doesn't work for pain relief. It's useless placebo. An empty, useless ritual. It doesn't do anything, and our doctors do not have the methods to see that. Once they go down this path, they will waste further effort on further useless ritual.

It's simply yet again a result of our observance threat, the people seeing links that do not exist and wasting effort in pursuing them.

This is early Psychosomatic treatment, and can still have limited usefulness for treating the mind, even if it does nothing for the body.

Point, but I'm fairly certain we don't have the understanding to realize that.
 
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[X] [Main] Build Iron Mine
[X] [Secondary] Study Health
[X] [Secondary] Expand Economy
[X] Change Policy - Offense
 
[X] [Main] Build Iron Mine
[X] [Secondary] Study Health
[X] [Secondary] War Mission - Northern Nomads
[X] Change Policy - Offense


We need to contest the generals otherwise March is completely fucked.
 
[X] [Main] Build Iron Mine
[X] [Secondary] Expand Economy
[X] [Secondary] Study Health
[X] Change Policy - Offense
 
Iron!
[X] [Main] Build Iron Mine
[X] [Secondary] Study Health
[X] [Secondary] War Mission - Northern Nomads
[X] Change Policy - Offense
 
Diplomacy 14->13 (overflowing) (+2) [+1]

Lost one from Trade Mission, gained 2 from Trade Mission next turn. Plenty of art at least

Economy 2 (+2+1)->4 (+1)

Settlements cash out.

Art 3->3

Overflow prevented by the drop in Diplomacy maybe?

Mysticism 0 (+2)->3

Settlements cashed out. Event led to a Holy Site expansion.

Acupuncture/pressure
And here we have one of the nice pain relief techniques. Nothing really huge, except in quality of life. Being able to even mitigate pain is a blessed thing.

Thinking it over, the king then went and consulted with other shamans before he told those overseeing the injured man, "Upon consideration of the elements involved, I have come to the decision that the only resources to be used are those to tend to this poor man. While it is entirely possible that the spirit within him is one of prophecy, I find upon the balance of things that we are dealing with a spirit that is either confused or has malicious intent. Either way, we are to seek to either exorcise it, or at the very least care for him and ease whatever suffering the spirit within him is causing as best we can."

More than one shaman protested this, but when the king tells you that you will have no further authorization to continue the line of inquiry, well, that was that.
Symphony is nice like that.
Precedent set, the babbling are hurt and should be treated with care.

Meanwhile, the king authorized that a trade expedition should be sent out to the Metal Workers to see if they might have heard anything from the nomads. Given that the leader had to some extent been trying to dominate the metal trade, it made sense that he might have something to do over there. As it was, the traders found out relatively little from the Metal Workers, although they did pick up a clue in the fact that several examples of the funny sort of copper that the Eastern Thunder Horse occasionally used had been brought to them to have a look at, and not by the People. The Metal Workers for their part had been quite interested and were offering extra for any further examples, but obviously weren't about to reveal what secrets they might have discovered from the metal.
The Nomads are going to be packing Metal gear this time potentially if they found a bronze source.
Metal Workers are of course enormously interested in brasses, probably very smug about their progress.

Heh.
Given the reports from the traders though, the People have enough clues to orient themselves correctly for when the nomads return, the first wave drawn from far distant tribes never before encountered by the People.

It soon enough becomes clear that the People had managed to deplete the numbers of the nomads badly enough that their king had withdrawn them... well before they broke, so that they could be used to force new, fresh tribes to submit and thus replenish their numbers, while also taking the time to look for new weapons to counter the advantages of the People. It was somewhat admirable in a way if it weren't so infuriating.
Oh wow, they went out there to get extra nomads because they didn't have enough anymore. And to get new weapons too. We can expect bronze weapons to show up soon. We need a counter.

Just how much damage did we do to them anyway?
Also, part of the delay was because apparently the king had a son who was just as skilled as he and the two of them had a brief spat to sort out who was in charge before deciding that they could in fact stand to work with each other in an attempt to dominate the steppes.
Oh god. TWO NOMAD HEROES WORKING TOGETHER?

Armed with Bronze?
Sitting in a quiet grove on the outskirts of Upper Valleyhome was a peculiar compound, the white adobe buildings surrounded by a sturdy wall that was evidently meant to keep the people inside rather than keep anyone else out. While bucolic enough looking, having an amazing view of the city with dozen tiers carved into the hill it sat on, each one stuffed with two or three story multi-generational houses of extended families, parks full of green trees and bushes, red brickwork streets, and burbling pools and waterways that spilled from one tier to another, the location was mostly avoided by the neighbours despite the excellent location. The occasional maddened scream was probably a major contributing factor.
And we have the first asylum for the insane.
Nice and pretty view.

I wonder how many people actually set up a nice view for their insane. Probably not that many.
This would be prime land for noble families elsewhere to watch over their domain.
The shamans in charge of the location were all apparently either Carrion Eaters too old for active duty, or shamans considered for the role who just weren't quite able to meet the demanding physical requirements. The combination of wisdom, patience, and the ability to get into a scrap were all apparently deeply necessary to working at this location.
Yeah well, if you're dealing with an ex-warrior afflicted by PTSD induced rages, the ability to wrestle them to the ground is a required job skill.

Sitting quietly along with the shaman who ran this place in the outer ring of the spirit haunted place, mumbling under his breath, was the miraculously still alive chariot driver that the king vaguely remembered his predecessor. What was left of his hair was going prematurely grey, and there were several esoteric tattoos that had been added to his head and face, but his continued survival was in fact why this place existed at all.
Is this one of the "this guy is insane, please be kind to him and get the nearest shaman to help get him somewhere safe" tattoos we use to mark criminals in the past. Adapted for containing the senile or deranged.

Or is it medicinal?
"We all assumed that certain phrases had meaning, that the spirits afflicting Forgyth were trying to speak with us, but what they were really doing was getting in the way of his ability to put the words he wanted into his speech," the shaman, Hygurtyn, explained to the king who had come to see him.

"Crush fruit sky buttock," Forgyth said, speaking up with a slight slur.
"I'll make sure to tell Dothwyn next time I see him so he can get you some," Hygurtyn said, eliciting a roll of the head and sticking out of the tongue from the former driver.
Oh, injury induced severe dyslexia?
Man, that'd have been IMMENSELY frustrating to him if everyone took it to be words of prophecy.

Also I think he wants fruit juice.
The king just looked on in confusion, and Hygurtyn said, "The fact that you came to visit has him pleased and excited, but when he gets excited his condition gets worse. There are a few herbs and aromatic smokes we use to help calm the patients.

When Forgyth is sufficiently calm enough he is able to make himself understood after some translation. I figured this out a few years ago and have been working with him and others similarly afflicted by malign or confused spirits ever since.

Ah, the "harmony smoke".
And we've set a tradition of healthcare for the mentally ill, which is great.

When Forgyth is sufficiently calm enough he is able to make himself understood after some translation. I figured this out a few years ago and have been working with him and others similarly afflicted by malign or confused spirits ever since. I don't think that the original orders covered all of this," Hygurtyn then waved to the whitewashed room around them, obviously referring to the compound, "but we got help from the families of those we treat and the clerks just sort of went along with some of the requests since the orders had the royal seal.
Oh I see, the most likely concussion victims are warriors. Who have influential families, who paid for the place by pulling in favors.

Harmony!
Well that and probably a little bit of corruption
In any case, once I realized that that once calm Forgyth would use the wrong words and phrases consistently and thus I could learn to interpret what he meant, I was able to apply these lessons to others. Not all respond the same as Forgyth, but some respond better and do not actually need to be kept here."

We're on the verge of a breakthrough into...I think it's Sanatoriums(which is a dedicated healthcare facility that's NOT a religious site), but it could be primitive psychology.

Because we managed to treat some of our insane, which when you go through a few common mental illnesses, it's likely to be the common symptoms of PTSD(schizophrenia, compulsions, paranoia, etc). This will also be good for dealing with the aftermath of war and also with absorbing refugees, as well as people suffering the unique city-based stressors of overcrowding and social stress from dealing with lots of people.

Nodding, Hygurtyn rolled up his sleeves to show off the tattoos on his arm, and also nodded to Forgyth, who rolled his head in a manner that the king realized was his spirit addled interpretation of a nod.

"There are many channels within the body, blood vessels being the most obvious. While I did not find them myself, I did work out how to greatly expand the use of other, secondary channels, which I make easier to find via the application of tattoos. The application of pressure, thin needles, or hot stones to the right places in the right combinations helps alter the flow of spiritual energy, which can be used to help calm the spirit and heal the body when done correctly. Add in the right herbal and aromatic treatments and great things can be achieved. I can't cure broken bones with my methods, but I can manage the pain so that the patient remains calmer and minimizes agitating the damage while it heals," Hygurtyn explained.
Ah, medicinal, he's mapping out the acupressure stimulation points with an enthusiastic candidate.

Man I wish we had the Library, so we can preserve the insights accurately, the acupuncture treatment helps people heal by reducing pain induced wound aggravation(and thus, the resultant inflammation of stressed sutures).

Also first hand testament that it works great for stress induced headaches and neck pains, which I believe our clerks and chiefs are very thankful for.
The king absorbed this and said, "While I hate to take you away from this, but if what you say is true I may need you to travel to Rainbow Trail..."

Pulling out a few fine copper needles from his robes, the shaman asked, "Would you care for a demonstration?"

A few needles in the face later and the king was telling this man to go teach what he knew to the other shamans as soon as possible, so that all might benefit from the surprising and counter-intuitive discoveries.
I love seeing how much our Kings trust their people. You know, most places the nobility wouldn't trust commoners or even priests with sharp objects in the same room, but we have a king here volunteering to try out face stabbing as a cure for pain.

Build Iron Mine - In the settlement of Bleeding Cliff there is a cliff streaked with red stone that is a known source of star metal. The large scale mining and smelting of the ore could have... considerable... benefit.
*S: -4 Econ, -1 Stability, +??? next turn
*M: -4 Econ, -1 Stability, +??? mid-turn
Only thing that matters here is the Mid Turn and Next turn.

90% sure this is Metal Gear.
Which is important because the Nomads are coming with Bronze.
Bloody expensive to build though.

And if Iron weapons bring us victory by the mid turn, I think we can break the superstition entirely.

More Blackbirds - Elite scouts and woodsmen, the Blackbirds are a potent force, if not exactly mainline fighters. More of them could prove useful
* S: -1 Mysticism, +1 Martial more Blackbirds
* M: -1 Econ, -1 Mysticism, +2 Martial, many more Blackbirds, additional effects

More Carrion Eaters - Keepers of sacred and profane knowledge, the Carrion Eaters thread a dangerous path but bring valuable knowledge for treating wounds and inspiring courage, greatly bolstering the morale of warriors by ensuring them that their companions are not doomed if they fall. More could prove useful.
*S: -1 Mysticism, +1 Martial, more Carrion Eaters
*M: -1 Econ, -1 Mysticism, +2 Martial, many more Carrion Eaters, additional effects
Interesting that the Main actions here still have guaranteed additional effects(here for instance, the sanatorium is staffed by retired Carrion Eaters). We hadn't probed deep enough yet.


New Settlement - There are a few new sites that could have new settlements placed on them: northern Blackriver, south-eastern Redhills
* S: +1 Econ next turn, increases number of times Expand Econ can be taken
* M: +1 Econ and +1 Mysticism end of turn, increases the number of times Expand Econ can be taken
Expansion Bad. Expanding into a warzone is a bit unwise...

New Trails - There are many settlements with only marginal trails, so more could be useful
* S: -1 Econ, +1 Centralization, other effects
* M: -1 Econ, +1 Centralization, +1 Diplo, other effects
One day, we will Double Main this properly.
But not today.
War Mission - You can send raiding parties against groups that have declared themselves hostile. Can only declare war if you have a valid casus belli (currently only if someone declares war first)
* S: Potential loss of Martial, can prevent Econ and Diplo damage when being attacked, can damage enemy Martial and Diplo
* M: Probable loss of Martial, can prevent Econ and Diplo damage when being attacked, can damage enemy Martial, Diplo, and Econ, always has a mid-turn decision point
@Academia Nut
You forgot the update the Casus Belli list.

Special: Studying Health this turn may produce special results
This is probably either studying further into Acupuncture techniques, or spreading Sanatoriums so every city has one.
Special: Changing Policy of Defence or Offence does not cost an action this turn
Too late to Defence. The time would have been last turn.

My vote:
[X][Main] Build Iron Mine
[X][Secondary] Study Health
[X][Secondary] War Mission - Northern Nomads
[X] Change Policy - Offense

Reasoning:
-Iron Mine to get Iron weapons ready by the mid-turn. We'd need it.
-Study Health to get the Acupuncture advance or the Hospice/Sanatorium advance
-War Mission + Offense because of Symphony - Our efforts get multiplied if the King performs a War Mission along with our provinces and the Stallion Tribes. We're dealing with TWO Heroes here. Half measures gets People killed

-NOT boosting Stability because it's secondary to not getting flattened by Double Trouble Nomads. We can eat Stability -1 for a time. Restore Order next turn.
 
[X] [Main] Build Iron Mine
[X] [Secondary] Study Health
[X] [Secondary] War Mission - Northern Nomads
[X] Change Policy - Offense
 
[X][Main] Build Iron Mine
[X][Secondary] Study Health
[X][Secondary] War Mission - Northern Nomads
[X] Change Policy - Offense
 
Ok, Policy - Offense has a major lead right now, so I'll do a bit of tactical voting.

[X][Main] Build Iron Mine
[X][Secondary] Study Health
[X][Secondary] Study Stars
(Assumes Policy - Offense wins. If it starts having a chance at losing, I'll add back in the War Mission and remove Study Stars)

Secondary War Mission+Offense policy is completely unnecessary. 3 [Main] War Missions is enough, we really don't need to go to 3.5
I believe that Study Stars is worth more than Expand Economy at this point. We've still got 1 econ coming in from last turn, and Iron is likely to give us a significant econ boost if it's at all like copper.

Study Stars gives us a reasonable chance at pushing back further at the Weapons of the Gods trait malus- we're checking in on the beings whose weapons we're taking. Our last pushback came from
a segment who saw the possibility of obtaining the weapons of the gods not as an act of hubris but a necessary thing.
So furthering their cause by showing that the gods don't care if we take their weapons is a great way to do this. The iron in the ground has been abandoned by the gods, let us reforge it and form our own weapons.

The spirits are everywhere, not just the sky.
Our people believe that Metal specifically comes from the spirits of the sky, since that's where the star metal came from.
-War Mission + Offense because of Symphony - Our efforts get multiplied if the King performs a War Mission along with our provinces and the Stallion Tribes.
Do you have any evidence to support the idea that we need to contribute directly to apply Symphony? Last time it was a 50% increase in terms of commitment from 2 [Main]s to 3 [Main]s, whereas this time we're starting directly at 3 [Main]s thanks to The Law, and I don't see going to 3.5 as being that significant to Symphony's effects.
 

No, it isn't.

I don't want to have a long derailing discussion here, so I'll answer this only once.

A systematic review of systematic reviews has found that it does not work for pain relief. The indications that it works sometimes are statistical artefacts. If you do sufficidnt studies, you will get false positives. Systematic review allows you to avoid those, and only get reproducable effects.

The conclusion from those is simple : No effect.

All of Accupuncture's supposed benefits can be attributed to the fact that patients are getting attention, not the treatment itself.

http://www.dcscience.net/Ernst-2011-AcupunctAlleviatePainRiskReview.pdf
 
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-War Mission + Offense because of Symphony - Our efforts get multiplied if the King performs a War Mission along with our provinces and the Stallion Tribes.
Point. I hadn't considered that.

Collective action bonus is more important than +1 econ next turn, so:

[X][Main] Build Iron Mine
[X][Secondary] Study Health
[X][Secondary] War Mission - Northern Nomads
[X] Change Policy - Offense
 
It doesn't work for pain relief. It's useless placebo. An empty, useless ritual.

It's simply yet again a result of our observance threat, the people seeing links that do not exist and wasting effort in pursuing them.
Placebos aren't useless in our situation here, statisticaly speaking they give around 10% better outcomes than no treatment. This of course depends on the circumstances, but in general placebos are better than nothing.
It can even have an effect on clinical studies, that's a large part of why studies are done double blind. That is neither the patient nor the adminstering healthcare professional knows whether or not the have the reference medicine or the tested medicine.

So I'm glad we have a treatment that has little to no adverse effects, but gives better outcomes.
 
Placebos aren't useless in our situation here, statisticaly speaking they give around 10% better outcomes than no treatment. This of course depends on the circumstances, but in general placebos are better than nothing.
Having read the linked study on acupuncture, it agrees with you. Placebo, and thus better than anything else our civ has at this time.
These findings should be seen in the light of recent results from high-quality randomized controlled trials. Cherkin et al. [14] have shown that, for chronic low back pain, individualized acupuncture is not better in reducing symptoms than formula acupuncture or sham acupuncture with a toothpick that does not penetrate the skin. All 3 forms of acupuncture, however, were more effective than usual care. The authors consider, therefore, that the benefits of acupuncture ''resulted from nonspecific effects such as therapist conviction, patient enthusiasm, or receiving a treatment believed to be helpful'' [14]. This view was further strengthened by a recent randomized controlled trial in patients with osteoarthritis examining the effects of acupuncturists' communication style [128]. Real and sham acupuncture were both more effective in reducing pain than no acupuncture at all, but real acupuncture was no better than sham. Moreover, a communication style generating high expectations in patients resulted in improved outcomes compared to a normal style, regardless of the type of acupuncture administered.
 
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Iron won't be in widespread use until after the mid-turn, after all the war missions have taken effect. We'll probably get a decision point then.
Uh, not true. War missions take effect on the mid-turn. Order of events is either Most Reasonable or Administration Roll, according to AN, unless the action explicitly only procs next turn.
Sending in our own [Secondary] War mission when we're already changing to Policy - Offense doesn't really make sense IMO.
You only need one of the two.
Actually no. War missions stack. We're facing an even larger horde. A secondary alone won't be enough but:

Symphony
All have their part to play in this world, be it their interaction with each other or with the spirits. When all the parts of a group are moving in accord, the result is greater than the sum of the parts.
Pros: Bonus to collective action, spiritually and ecologically harmonious actions, and to concerted efforts
Cons: Disharmony is to be corrected, require casus belli to declare war

Based on the Megaproject, if the King and Provinces take the same action, we get a free Main action added.

Policy alone:
-Stallion Tribe Main War Mission x2
-Province Law Main War Mission x1
-Province Fused Main War Mission x1
-Province Secondary War Mission x1

Martial 5 Main War Mission x2
Martial 10 Main War Mission x2.5

State Policy:
-Stallion Tribe Main War Mission x2
-Province Law Main War Mission x1
-Province Fused Main War Mission x1
-Province Secondary War Mission x1
-State Secondary War Mission x1
-Symphony Main War Mission x1

Martial 5 Main War Mission x2
Martial 10 Main War Mission x4


It doesn't work for pain relief. It's useless placebo. An empty, useless ritual. It doesn't do anything, and our doctors do not have the methods to see that. Once they go down this path, they will waste further effort on further useless ritual.

It's simply yet again a result of our observance threat, the people seeing links that do not exist and wasting effort in pursuing them.
Acupuncture actually does work regardless of whether you believe it works however, which removes it from placebo status. But it only works for pain relief. Nothing else.

Medical studies reflect that.
Medical studies also reflect that psychosomatic treatment does nothing BUT remove pain, which is the main faulty belief there, that acupuncture could be used for anything but fixing pain and pain derived issues.


Not the point anyway. The discovery is actually sanatoriums
 
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Placebos aren't useless in our situation here, statisticaly speaking they give around 10% better outcomes than no treatment. This of course depends on the circumstances, but in general placebos are better than nothing.
It can even have an effect on clinical studies, that's a large part of why studies are done double blind. That is neither the patient nor the adminstering healthcare professional knows whether or not the have the reference medicine or the tested medicine.

So I'm glad we have a treatment that has little to no adverse effects, but gives better outcomes.

Placebo is dangerous, especially with our observance trait. Placebo will entrench itself, preventing the development of stuff that actually works.

It sends our Carrion Walkers looking down the wrong path for solutions. And there's nothing to be gained on this path, unlike on other pseudoscience paths.

(Also, accupuncture isn't exactly harmless. Needles can and will cause lethal infection. Remember, this society has no disinfectant or antibiotics. You're basically asking for rapidly spreading infections )

Acupuncture actually does work regardless of whether you believe it works however, which removes it from placebo status. But it only works for pain relief. Nothing else

Placebo also works if people know it is placebo.

Accupuncture is placebo, as it can be replaced with random toothpick poking without losing efficacy.

Medical studies reflect that.

Medical studies say it is placebo.

The effects are entirely attributable to the attention the doctor gives, not anything else.
 
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Based on the Megaproject, if the King and Provinces take the same action, we get a free Main action added.
Here's the posts I could find on it: this and this.

I see nothing about king/province collaboration, just raw effort contributed. A 17% boost in effort (3 to 3.5) doesn't seem likely to add that much Symphony bonus this time. The only previous comparison is going from 2 to 3, a 50% increase and thus providing much more Symphony. Going with 3x main war missions is almost certainly enough.

Study Stars is a perfect way to hedge our bets against the stability drop from the Iron, and it fits perfectly narratively.

....

Ah frak, I just realized that the provinces can take Blackbirds/Carrion Eaters as a secondary.
[X][Main] Build Iron Mine
[X][Secondary] Study Health
[X][Secondary] War Mission - Northern Nomads
[X] Change Policy - Offense
 
[X][Main] Build Iron Mine
[X][Secondary] Study Health
[X][Secondary] War Mission - Northern Nomads
[X] Change Policy - Offense

Alright, vekkie brought good enough arguments. No half measures.
 
@Academia Nut If we personally take a secondary war mission along with the switch to offensive policy, will it trigger Symphony and get us a bonus secondary (I.E. will the symphony trigger double another secondary)?
 
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