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Paths of Civilization

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Lailoken said:
Read the rest. It wasn't an existential threat. It was a block on extorting wealth out of those further south and thereby a long-term impediment to economic expansion for his people. If he's already getting a lot of that wealth in exchange for doing nothing, yeah, he would be quite likely to do the nomad thing and move on to raiding other targets. He certainly doesn't intend to conquer the entire people considering that even the total capitulation option only carried a chance of his annexing the march, so he's already factored in the potential for vengeance either way.
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I've got a question for you.

What possible reason would the Nomad hero have to play along? Why wouldn't he just take our tribute and keep attacking us anyway? You said it yourself, his goal is to severely cripple our economy. Why on earth would he stop attacking and allow us to catch our breath?

That, and we're the most enticing targets for hundreds of miles. I highly doubt he'd just pack up and go raid someone else if we paid tribute.

EDIT: Once again, we're dealing with a hero unit. He'll see right through our stalling military tactic.
 
Basically, my argument is that we can't go to war on the cheap. And draining off more than half our resource expenditure for infrastructure in places that aren't in combat is exactly that. It's super greedy.

The time to build more defensive structures is when you aren't in full WAAAGH, or when you desperately need them where the fighting is happening.
 
Lailoken said:
Read the rest. It wasn't an existential threat. It was a block on extorting wealth out of those further south and thereby a long-term impediment to economic expansion for his people. If he's already getting a lot of that wealth in exchange for doing nothing, yeah, he would be quite likely to do the nomad thing and move on to raiding other targets. He certainly doesn't intend to conquer the entire people considering that even the total capitulation option only carried a chance of his annexing the march, so he's already factored in the potential for vengeance either way.
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He wants to benefit his people over the long run, not the short term.
 
So, I think our best bet in regards to iron is to forge those "very small quantities of the metal" into daggers. Being able to reliably and consistently make iron daggers and use them against the nomads will likely revolutionize warfare. I fully expect that once we have Ironworking we'll beat the nomads in a generation or two and maybe even incorporate them into the People like the Stallion Tribes.

Also, once we do get ironworking I expect the ancient aliens conspiracy theorists will have even more of a field day with the People.

"What's this star metal? It couldn't possibly be iron, so the more likely scenario is that it was given to them by aliens! Metal from the stars, get it?"
 
Spectrum said:
Chariots aren't the worst idea given the terrain either, still. Chariot archers were specifically called out as being useful for a reason.

Mind, this also continues to relate back to how I've been trying to get Expand Forest into new areas passed to change the terrain to better suit the people and fuck up these stupid horse tribe raiders.
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Yes. Chariots are great. I just have doubts about them being good enough against a Nomad Hero.
Karugus said:
You're claiming that he can't utterly shatter the Stallion Tribes thanks to 3 econ and 3 martial

All while admitting you're considering letting Divine Stewards proc as we lose land
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I'm considering it an acceptable risk. Nomads can do 4 Military and 2 Econ of damage(aka double Main War Mission from them) per turn even when we roll horribly, as long as we contest them.
The Stallion Tribes are not at 0 yet, they called for aid and we sent them everything

It would be a problem if we had sent less than the maximum, but we've sent them enough Economy and Martial for them to take their own Main Chariots this turn, which will, along with our Secondary War Mission, blunt the Nomads attack enough for at least this generation that they may or may not need aid the next.

If they do, we send it again, but this time we'd be able to go at the Nomads with near max Martial from both the Stallion Tribes and the main polity.
And then claiming that we can't break the horde itself. Do you really think a much smaller army than the one we could mount by actually building it up and running multiple mains will be able to actually meaningfully contest him for all that long? Especially when his entire goal is to circumvent the Stallion Tribes.

You don't simply send in units piecemeal against a martial hero, and we fundamentally can't afford to lose the ST thanks to Divine Steward. It would put us in a horrendous position.
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Meaningfully contest him? Yes, absolutely. A Main + Secondary + potential Symphony bonus(for coordinating between capital and province in war) can tie him up.

War Missions is not War effectiveness. It's how much you throw into the frontlines. Going All In will not win this without getting rid of their Hero first.

It's far more effective to play to our strengths and build up so that we can sustain at least 3 turns of this. The Offense approach will burn out in the second turn, where we'd not have the Economy to replace losses for a turn while maintaining war commitment. The Defense approach at least has enough room to commit a Main or Secondary War Mission for the duration of the war, staying at Martial 8+ WHILE eating a projected 2 Martial loss every turn.
Mannan said:
Actually, is this the first major military operation that the People undergo that actually puts the entire civilization under threat?
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Nope! Funny enough.

It's the first time we have a Wonder in the firing line though.
 
BlueFlamingWings said:
So, I think our best bet in regards to iron is to forge those "very small quantities of the metal" into daggers. Being able to reliably and consistently make iron daggers and use them against the nomads will likely revolutionize warfare. I fully expect that once we have Ironworking we'll beat the nomads in a generation or two and maybe even incorporate them into the People like the Stallion Tribes.

Also, once we do get ironworking I expect the ancient aliens conspiracy theorists will have even more of a field day with the People.

"What's this star metal? It couldn't possibly be iron, so the more likely scenario is that it was given to them by aliens! Metal from the stars, get it?"
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The nomads are archers, same as us. How are we going to force them into a battle against infantry? We can't.
 
BlueFlamingWings said:
So, I think our best bet in regards to iron is to forge those "very small quantities of the metal" into daggers. Being able to reliably and consistently make iron daggers and use them against the nomads will likely revolutionize warfare. I fully expect that once we have Ironworking we'll beat the nomads in a generation or two and maybe even incorporate them into the People like the Stallion Tribes.

Also, once we do get ironworking I expect the ancient aliens conspiracy theorists will have even more of a field day with the People.

"What's this star metal? It couldn't possibly be iron, so the more likely scenario is that it was given to them by aliens! Metal from the stars, get it?"
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Or spear heads.
 
pblur said:
Read what you wrote again. 'Unable to take policy actions'. If it's out of Martial, it is unable to take send war mission, right?

It doesn't say 'unable to take policy actions due to being out of econ.'
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Read it. I mean, actually READ it.

-Offense Policy will only Expand Economy if we run out of both Economy and Martial. It will always be able to take War Missions until we don't have dudes to send at all, so it will take War Missions instead of Expand Economy.

-Defense Policy will only Expand Economy if we run out of Economy. It will do so immediately

As we WILL run out of Economy this turn, Defense Policy will immediately begin regenerating Economy after building northern fortifications. Offense Policy will simply send even more War Missions once it runs out of Economy.

This means that in turn 2, we'd have no options available other than to regenerate Economy while spamming War Missions in Offense mode. The only hope is that all the combined Symphony War Missions do enough damage that their Hero backs off and goes for something else.

In Defense mode, we continue on. We can take the exact same turn nearly indefinitely.
 
veekie said:
I'm considering it an acceptable risk. Nomads can do 4 Military and 2 Econ of damage(aka double Main War Mission from them) per turn even when we roll horribly, as long as we contest them.
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Citation needed. As far as I'm aware 'actions' aren't the same power between civilizations, so I don't think we have any sort of measure like this. Also we don't know how many actions they have.


veekie said:
War Missions is not War effectiveness. It's how much you throw into the frontlines. Going All In will not win this without getting rid of their Hero first.
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But not going somewhat more than 0% in might just lose it for us.
 
veekie said:
-Offense Policy will only Expand Economy if we run out of both Economy and Martial. It will always be able to take War Missions until we don't have dudes to send at all, so it will take War Missions instead of Expand Economy.
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That's exactly what I said that you were arguing with. o_O At least we agree on mechanics I guess.
veekie said:
In Defense mode, we continue on. We can take the exact same turn nearly indefinitely.
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Yes. The move which does literally NOTHING to help the March.

We could also do megaprojects nearly indefinitely. To similarly disastrous results.
 
veekie said:
I'm considering it an acceptable risk. Nomads can do 4 Military and 2 Econ of damage(aka double Main War Mission from them) per turn even when we roll horribly, as long as we contest them.
The Stallion Tribes are not at 0 yet, they called for aid and we sent them everything

It would be a problem if we had sent less than the maximum, but we've sent them enough Economy and Martial for them to take their own Main Chariots this turn, which will, along with our Secondary War Mission, blunt the Nomads attack enough for at least this generation that they may or may not need aid the next.

If they do, we send it again, but this time we'd be able to go at the Nomads with near max Martial from both the Stallion Tribes and the main polity.
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Conjecture. All of this is conjecture. Assuming we'll be able to reinforce the Stallion Tribe- which can't even feed itself enough that it can simply tank the punches is a horrendous plan.

All of which is utterly contingent of the Heroic warlord acting exactly according to plan. What's stopping him from simply moving past the shattered Stallion armies? If he's driven them into the walled cities again, he can shift towards his real prize of southshore.

veekie said:
Meaningfully contest him? Yes, absolutely. A Main + Secondary + potential Symphony bonus(for coordinating between capital and province in war) can tie him up.

War Missions is not War effectiveness. It's how much you throw into the frontlines. Going All In will not win this without getting rid of their Hero first.
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Man, it must be really nice being able to treat opinion as absolute fact. And the assumption that throwing more into the front lines won't be helpful isn't necessarily true either. Or that assuming the hero makes breaking them in battle all but impossible.

veekie said:
It's far more effective to play to our strengths and build up so that we can sustain at least 3 turns of this. The Offense approach will burn out in the second turn, where we'd not have the Economy to replace losses for a turn while maintaining war commitment. The Defense approach at least has enough room to commit a Main or Secondary War Mission for the duration of the war, staying at Martial 8+ WHILE eating a projected 2 Martial loss every turn.
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Nope. Even in offense if we go all in on econ expansion, than we can rely on our provinces to fight the fight. This is assuming AN doesn't apply common sense for offensive expand econ.

Main War Mission
Second Offensive
Second Econ

Prov: 2 Chariots (if that) , 2 main wars.

4 econ

Main whatever
Second Econ
Second Econ

Prov: 1-2 actions to rebuild martial, 2-3 wars

3-4 econ

Econ
econ
econ

Prov: 1-2 actions for moar martial, 2-3 wars

Bam. Nomad hero is gone either from age or battle, we have a massive and incredibly bloodied army that fucking hates nomads. Don't pretend yours is the only way.

And even then, sending more aid to the Stallions ala mid turn actions would theoretically be possible even if we couldn't do as much as this time. We'd still be contributing far more military to the cause.
 
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Duesal said:
I've got a question for you.

What possible reason would the Nomad hero have to play along? Why wouldn't he just take our tribute and keep attacking us anyway? You said it yourself, his goal is to severely cripple our economy. Why on earth would he stop attacking and allow us to catch our breath?

That, and we're the most enticing targets for hundreds of miles. I highly doubt he'd just pack up and go raid someone else if we paid tribute.

EDIT: Once again, we're dealing with a hero unit. He'll see right through our stalling military tactic.
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Umi-san said:
He wants to benefit his people over the long run, not the short term.
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Their honor value about oaths, the loss of ongoing tribute, the reputational effects on future conquests, the threat of motivated and spiritually sanctioned retribution, the opportunity to get most of the gains of conquest without the costs while freeing how military up for additional conquests, the various other reasons tribute relationships have existed throughout history.

Most people don't actually hold and act on counterproductive multigenerational genocidal grudges. As long as his people are united, fighting him is an economically insane decision compared to just buying him off, and like every other emperor he assumes that his empire is going to last forever. Thinking that the people are going to spend 70 years single-mindedly working so their great-grandchildren can take obsessive revenge on his great-grandchildren despite it being worse for everybody is not nearly as obvious as you make it out to be.

Building an empire of tribute states is a long-term good for his people.
 
veekie said:
In Defense mode, we continue on. We can take the exact same turn nearly indefinitely.
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To elaborate more on this, this is a BAD THING about your plan, not a GOOD THING. Sustainable plans have lower short term power than nonsustainable ones (assuming remotely similar efficiencies.) The middle of the worst WAAAGH in centuries with a hero on the other side is a time we need short term power. Even if your plan contributed to the current fight (which it doesn't at all this turn) the very fact that it's sustainable is bad for our current need (again, short term power.)

We have iron to fall back on. We need to burn resources now for power now to stave him off.
 
I am assuming that we do not need to run down both Econ and Martial in order for the Provinces to partially switch to Expand Econ. I don't know if veekie is right and we need to run those both down in order to get them to switch, that's up to you folks who read this. Plus we can always do expand actions and wall actions ourselves (thanks for pointing this out @Karugus, I had forgotten).

To the analysis.

[][Main] War Mission - Northern Nomads
[][Secondary] Change Policy: Offense
[][Secondary] New Settlement Bleeding Cliffs


This gives us push back against the Khan. Basically gives us the space needed to get our footing. Remember if we lose the March we are gonna be eating a Stability drop.
The Provinces can do a set of Main Chariot for 4 Martial at -2 Econ, one Secondary Chariot for -1 Econ and 2 Martial, and one Main War Mission. All told we and our provinces commit, (thanks for informing me of this veekie), 8 Martial and we end at 1 (+1) Econ. Not the best but gives us breathing room. We need this space and we need to support the March so that Divine Steward's downside of losing Stability if we lose territory doesn't proc.
Next, this grabs requirement 2 our of 3 for Iron. We will need Iron to really keep ourselves safe. It provides 1 Econ next turn and leaves us with 2 Econ then.


In the mid turn it can go a few ways.
We lose out and keep rolling badly which is probable, what this means is that there will be unpalatable options, take the one that keeps us alive and if possible grabbing resources. We will be around 3 Martial at this point and 2 Econ.
We could break even, I think this is likely what will happen. What this means is that we total up and have lost 4 Martial leaving us at 7 a net ahead of where we started, we will also be at 2 Econ.
We could win which I do not consider likely. We will be at 11 Martial or a bit more and at 2 Econ.

Turn 2 I see us doing this.

[][Main] Build Iron Mine Bleeding Cliffs
[][Secondary] War Mission - Northern Nomads
[][Secondary] Grand Sacrifice


With this we get Iron up and running for neutral Stability and give us at least 3 Econ immediately (bumping us to 5), 2 of which would be taken by the Grand Sac (putting us at 3). Resource wise this commits 2 Martial and 2 Econ from us, so we can do it worst case.
If we lost our Provinces will do this: Expand Econ x2, a Main Chariots and a Secondary Chariots to give us +6 Martial for 3 Econ putting us at around 7 Martial if we win and 2 Econ. If we lose again we will be at 5 Martial and 2 Econ.
If we broke even they will do: Expand Econ x1, a Main Chariots for +4 Martial at -2 Econ and a Main War Mission, leaving us at around 11 Martial if we win and 2 Econ again. If we lose we will be at 5 Martial and 2 Econ.
If we won they will do: Two Main War Missions, one created by doubling a Secondary in the Law, Expand Econ x1. We end at approximately 11 Martial if we win and 4 Econ. If we lose we end at 1 Martial and 4 Econ.

With Iron, even nascent, all of our Martial becomes far more effective.

All of these actions are approximates. These make sense mathematically and we have seen that the provinces operate more from the math than not. Some one please correct me if I have made mistakes and point to quotes that support it.
 
[X] Keep Fighting
[X] Resettle large numbers (3 Econ and Martial transferred)

Seriously, fuck these guys. Once we get iron it's time to beef up our military and fortifications drastically and either wipe them out or subjugate them and exterminate their culture.
 
DocMatoi said:
@Academia Nut is the saltern in NORTHshore or REDshore?
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Academia Nut said:
With the new potion developed requiring salt, and salt being required for so many things anyway, the king carefully listened to his council and then authorized that significant resources be directed towards the construction of a new major project along the coast in Northshore. There was a place along the coast where what appeared to be an old riverbed had once run, producing an area where the tide came up unusually high but where a plausible wall could be built as a sort of dam.
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Update: So Much Salt.

That's the Nomad wargoal probably.
The Stallion Tribes are important and worth protecting.

But if their Hero survives the first turn of Offense, what do we plan to do on turn 2? We'd have no Economy to rebuild the Martial. Our Martial would be damaged as well from the war commitment. The Stallion Tribes would be still facing the Nomads bottomless reserves. If they fall, the North would if we go Offense, we wouldn't have the Martial to contest it after that.

Also, for claims that a Main + Secondary cannot stall the horde? The thing is, the Nomads have limited ability to concentrate force compared to us. Pack enough tribes close enough and they'd graze the land bare within the year. This is a situation where they cannot leverage their full numbers like we can.

Now, normally what they'd do is raid you so hard that you are forced to retreat to your settlements, and then they'd go past you. But our fortified March settlements on rivers means they cannot break the settlements directly, not while they have supply from the coast by boat. Our own chariots will be able to raid from the settlements on their rear lines, endangering their supply and creating a flanking strike if they take the risk to push through to Stonepen and Northshore.

It'd be ruinous, but we don't need to commit nearly as much to hold the line as to see them off. They have deep reserves, but not much time. Big catastrophic clashes that kills entire raids can be absorbed by them. If you send out 4 Main War Missions into them, against their 2 Main War Missions and win, they'd come back next turn with 2 more, and more after that, but you won't have the Martial to win by the second and third hits.
 
[X] Heap tribute upon their chief and promise more (-5 Diplomacy, -1 Diplomacy/turn until next war or collapse of nomad tribe, -1 Prestige)
[X] Resettle large numbers (3 Econ and Martial transferred)


In completely unsurprising news, as soon as next leader unifies the tribes, Stallions are utterly boned and keeping them from dying is nothing more than sunk costs.
And we can regain Diplomacy pretty fast, and the chief will die in several generations.
 
ctulhuslp said:
[X] Heap tribute upon their chief and promise more (-5 Diplomacy, -1 Diplomacy/turn until next war or collapse of nomad tribe, -1 Prestige)
[X] Resettle large numbers (3 Econ and Martial transferred)


In completely unsurprising news, as soon as next leader unifies the tribes, Stallions are utterly boned and keeping them from dying is nothing more than sunk costs.
And we can regain Diplomacy pretty fast, and the chief will die in several generations.
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Problem. The vote got closed due to internet tough man consensus.
 
ctulhuslp said:
[X] Heap tribute upon their chief and promise more (-5 Diplomacy, -1 Diplomacy/turn until next war or collapse of nomad tribe, -1 Prestige)
[X] Resettle large numbers (3 Econ and Martial transferred)


In completely unsurprising news, as soon as next leader unifies the tribes, Stallions are utterly boned and keeping them from dying is nothing more than sunk costs.
And we can regain Diplomacy pretty fast, and the chief will die in several generations.
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youre too late. we bandwagoned really fucking hard and AN closed the vote.
 
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