This made me go and check what they've done when upgraded:
Caretakers of the Land -> Gardeners of the Land
Cons: Additional strife caused by deliberate environmental disruption or loss of territory to others
->Cons: Additional strife caused by deliberate environmental disruption unless it is for the long term betterment of the land, or loss of territory to others
This one was a straight upgrade, but we got basically no additional benefits from the upgrade.
Gardeners of the Land -> Shapers of the Land
No change in cons, gained megaproject bonus
Shapers of the Land -> Divine Stewards
Again, no change in cons, gained kicker ability
Eye for an Eye -> Protective Justice
Cons: Justice must be served
->Cons: Sometimes the call for justice comes early...
We haven't and are probably unlikely to really trigger this hard, but being pushed to do justice early is just as bad as being forced to do justice, but in a different way.
Love Thy Neighbour -> Land of Opportunity
I can't actually find Love Thy Neighbor, but assuming it's the same as Sharing Circle's
Cons: Strife generated from turning people away, paints a target
->Cons: Many think you weak, not accepting the needy can cause stability drops
It's basically the same but worse.
Harmony -> Symphony
Cons: Disharmony is to be corrected
->Cons: Disharmony is to be corrected, require casus belli to declare war
Significant downside added.
So, of 6: 1 had a reduction in cons, 1 had a sidegrade (justice), 2 did nothing, 2 got worse. So, reasonable odds, but we've definitely seen it happen.
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