How thorough was Ruka's interrogation?
  • Shikamaru knew about EM, but seemed convinced she was dead. Asuma was surprised by this.
  • Shikamaru monofocused on Hidan when we mentioned him. Asuma didn't.
  • This just seems weird.
@Sir Stompy
I'd like to add "Shikamaru seemingly hasn't made or discussed the timeline connection, which is odd." to the "the investigation seems weird" catagory.
Possibly also "Shikamaru didn't want us to pursue across borders, while Asuma expected us to, and ordered a bunch of teams to do so" not a huge deal on it's own, but I'm seeing a pattern.
(Also, "the investigation seems weird" seems like a better category name, several of the points aren't about Ruka.)

I'd cut the bit about the mindwalking: that was a village-destroying threat and we consented to it. Asuma knew he could push us around, but he has no such hold over the Hagoromo.
I wouldn't. There are plausible reasons not to mindwalk, but in face of the threat of EM nukes, it's one more thing that seems... weird. thus it should be mentioned here.

I'm interested in voteing for this plan. I like most of FaintlySorcerous's adjustments. I'd also like you to make these adjustments. (or explain why not)
 
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I wouldn't. There are plausible reasons not to mindwalk, but in face of the threat of EM nukes, it's one more thing that seems... weird. thus it should be mentioned here.
Do you suspect Asuma of having been involved? I, personally, don't in an appreciable sense. I also found his decision not to mindwalk Ruka compelling based on the logic he presented. On that basis, I think bringing up mindwalking is a distraction.

Keep in mind that his knowledge of these events is likely limited to Shikamaru's report. Asuma trusts Shikamaru implicitly - probably even more than he trusted Shikaku, as Shikaku was hypercompetent, had his own agendas, and Asuma and Shikaku weren't as close as Shikamaru and Asuma (sensei-student bond). IMO it's unlikely he questioned anything in the report. If we overturn or cast doubt on Shikamaru's report, then Asuma looks at this with new eyes and might approve a mindwalk.
[X] Action Plan: ESealing
Word Count: Low
  • Take the exam to become a Sealing SpecJ.
    • Prepare with Kagome. Get dem tags.
  • EarthShaping:
    • Make more gems. Sell them.
    • Make more iron. Make Asuma happy.
    • Experiment with gems. Figure out what 'things' emeralds or rubies need, and see if other common materials have them.
Can I convince you to add some of what I have below? I think offering a post-exam gift is a classy thing to do and explicitly being very respectful of the examiner is probably a good idea as we have no idea who they are.

Odds are pretty good that we walk through this with no significant issues (except maybe calligraphy) but there are some things we can do to cut off potential pain points fairly costlessly.
Go take the sealing exam.
  • Prepare with Kagome.
  • Aim to impress.
  • Be respectful of the examiner. Offer a post-exam gift as thanks.
 
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Do you suspect Asuma of having been involved? I, personally, don't in an appreciable sense. I also found his decision not to mindwalk Ruka compelling based on the logic he presented. On that basis, I think bringing up mindwalking is a distraction.

Keep in mind that his knowledge of these events is likely limited to Shikamaru's report. Asuma trusts Shikamaru implicitly - probably even more than he trusted Shikaku, as Shikaku was hypercompetent, had his own agendas, and Asuma and Shikaku weren't as close as Shikamaru and Asuma (sensei-student bond). IMO it's unlikely he questioned anything in the report. If we overturn or cast doubt on Shikamaru's report, then Asuma looks at this with new eyes and might approve a mindwalk.
I mostly don't suspect Asuma. As you point out, Asuma would have every reason to take Shikamaru's word if he said no mindwalk was needed.
And reguardles of who it implicates, it's another way the investigations seems slightly off, at least to me.
 
I mostly don't suspect Asuma. As you point out, Asuma would have every reason to take Shikamaru's word if he said no mindwalk was needed.
And reguardles of who it implicates, it's another way the investigations seems slightly off, at least to me.
I would support phrasing it as, 'is it inconsistent that Akane was mindwalked for EM security but not Ruka?'
 
Adhoc vote count started by RandomOTP on May 30, 2023 at 6:52 PM, finished with 139 posts and 19 votes.


Current status of votes
 
Can I convince you to add some of what I have below? I think offering a post-exam gift is a classy thing to do and explicitly being very respectful of the examiner is probably a good idea as we have no idea who they are.

Odds are pretty good that we walk through this with no significant issues (except maybe calligraphy) but there are some things we can do to cut off potential pain points fairly costlessly.
Done, though I have sanity-checked that with Mari as well.

[X] Action Plan: ESealing
Word Count: Low
  • Sanity-check with Mari.
  • Take the exam to become a Sealing SpecJ.
    • Prepare with Kagome.
    • Aim to impress.
    • Be respectful of the examiner. Offer a post-exam gift as thanks.
  • EarthShaping:
    • Make more gems. Sell them as planned.
    • Make more iron for Asuma. Make Asuma happy.
    • Experiment with gems. Figure out what 'things' emeralds or rubies need, and see if other common materials have them.
EDIT: Changed the content of the sanity-check because I am a paranoid goober.
 
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Admitably, I'm also not really sure what to do if it turns out to provably be Shikamaru and he says:
"Fine, you got me. I think having her killed made it 10% more likely for civilization to survive the decade. I didn't consult you because you'd be to emotionally involved to engage constructively. Sorry for your loss but it needed to be done."
That motive seems quite reasonable.
We would't have many actions available that actually make things better.
If Shikamaru admits that he had Akane killed. I will vote for Hazou to kill him and then go missing. After mounting Shikamaru's corpse over the Hokage monument.

Plan updated, mass pings are disfavored for some reason, so I'll post the current version here.

[X] Action Plan: To Speak in Vain to Silent Ash
Word Count: 321 (in progress)
  • Gather Mari/Kei and Snow (if she's cleared to know about EM nukes) under highest OPSEC
  • Circumstances around Akane's disappearance seem suspicious.
  • Go over the timeline
    • Jan 5, noon: mission assigned.
      • TA formed a month prior: seems quite early for a mission outside Leaf.
    • Jan 6: Attackers enter Fire, find TA's tracks
      • 4 hours travel minimum.
        • Another ~1.5 hours to reach campsite
        • Seems like they camped right on the border?
      • Attackers actively tracked TA. Indicates premediated assault, mission to kill/capture.
        • Targeting TA at worst, Leaf nin at best.
    • Jan 6-7, (before sunrise): Attackers enage TA
      • Seems like they ambushed TA, bypassing Akane's perimeter.
        • Follow up with Kagome re: how they could have done this?
    • Jan 6-7, (unknown): Attackers exfiltrate.
      • Attackers took 7 hours to leave Fire. No sign of significant injury or chakra expenditure.
      • They were strong- jonin, multiple chuunin? Significant resources - why commit them?
        • Or they were prepared.
      • Ambushes require intelligence - could they have known about Akane's mission?
        • Timeline is extremely tight for them to have found out after assignment: could it have been leaked in advance?
  • It seems possible that Akane was specifically given this mission by someone in the Tower so that she would be out of the village and vulnerable
    • We're concerned Akane was set up - sent out with a green team and ambushed.
      • Was this possibility seriously considered?
      • Asuma thought it sounded like a botched capture mission.
      • Ruka is a suspect: she assigned Akane the mission early, didn't report it overdue.
    • How thorough was Ruka's interrogation?
      • Shikamaru knew about EM, but seemed convinced she was dead. Asuma was surprised by this.
      • Shikamaru monofocused on Hidan when we mentioned him. Asuma didn't.
      • This just seems weird.
      • Is it inconsistent that Akane was mindwalked for EM security but not Ruka?
  • Are we crazy?
    • What do we do next? Investigate privately? Discuss with Asuma? Drop it?
  • Take the Sealing Exam
    • Aim to impress
 
This is 272 and didn't cut anything AFAIK.
  • Gather Mari, Kei, Snowflake (if cleared for EM). Highest OPSEC
  • Circumstances around Akane's disappearance seem suspicious.
  • Discuss timeline
    • Jan 5, noon: mission assigned.
      • TA formed a month prior: early for a mission outside Leaf?
    • Jan 6: Attackers enter Fire, find TA's tracks
      • 4 hours into Fire, ~1.5 to reach campsite: 5.5 minimum, assuming they camped right on the border.
      • Attackers actively tracked TA. Indicates premeditated assault, mission to kill/capture.
        • Targeting TA at worst, Leaf nin at best.
    • Jan 6-7, (before sunrise): Attackers enage TA
      • Likely ambushed TA, bypassing Akane's perimeter?
        • Ask Kagome how difficult to bypass?
    • Jan 6-7, (unknown): Attackers exfiltrate.
      • Took 7 hours to leave Fire. No sign of significant injury/chakra expenditure.
      • They were strong - jonin, multiple chuunin? Why commit such resources?
        • Or they were prepared.
      • Ambushes require intelligence - maybe they knew about Akane's mission?
        • Timeline for post-assignment leak is tight. Could it have been leaked in advance?
  • Seems possible that Akane was set up.
    • Green team: splits her attention.
    • Location leaked: allows ambush.
    • Given the mission specifically to make this happen?
    • Asuma thought it sounded like a botched capture mission.
    • Ruka is a suspect: she assigned Akane the mission early, didn't report it overdue.
    • How thorough was Ruka's interrogation?
      • Shikamaru knew about EM, but seemed convinced she was dead. Asuma was surprised by this.
      • Shikamaru monofocused on Hidan when we mentioned him. Asuma didn't.
      • This just seems weird. Genjutsu?
      • Why was Akane mindwalked for EM security but not Ruka?
  • Are we crazy?
    • What do we do next? Investigate privately? Discuss with Asuma? Drop it?
  • Take the Sealing Exam
    • Prep with Kagome (for tags)
    • Aim to impress
 
I'm currently unsatisfied with @_The_Bomb 's plan. I think it strikes too accusatory a tone regarding the events that took place surrounding Akane's death and doesn't weight possibilities how I would. I'm posting a fork that largely covers the points in his plan, but aims for a different tone.

[X] Action Plan: To Speak in Vain to Silent Ash
Word Count: 298
  • Gather Mari, Kei, Snowflake (if cleared for EM nukes). Highest OPSEC
  • Circumstances around Akane's disappearance seem suspicious.
  • Discuss timeline
    • Jan 5, noon: mission assigned.
      • TA formed a month prior: early for a mission outside Leaf?
    • Jan 6: Attackers enter Fire, find TA's tracks
      • 4 hours into Fire, ~1.5 to reach campsite: 5.5 minimum, assuming they camped right on the border.
      • Attackers actively tracked TA. Indicates premeditated assault, mission to kill/capture.
        • Targeting TA at worst, Leaf nin at best.
    • Jan 6-7, (before sunrise): Attackers enage TA
      • Likely ambushed TA, bypassing Akane's perimeter?
        • Ask Kagome how difficult to bypass?
    • Jan 6-7, (unknown): Attackers exfiltrate.
      • Took 7 hours to leave Fire. No sign of significant injury/chakra expenditure.
      • They were strong - jonin, multiple chuunin? Why commit such resources?
        • Or they were prepared.
      • Ambushes require intelligence - maybe they knew about Akane's mission?
        • Timeline for post-assignment leak is tight. Could it have been leaked in advance?
  • Seems possible that Akane was set up.
    • Green team - to split her attention?
    • Location leaked: allows ambush.
    • Assigned this mission specifically to get her out of Leaf?
    • Asuma thought it sounded like a botched capture mission.
    • Ruka is a suspect (or catspaw): she assigned Akane the mission early, didn't report it overdue.
    • How thorough was Ruka's interrogation?
      • Shikamaru knew about EM, but seemed convinced she was dead. Asuma was surprised by this.
      • Shikamaru monofocused on Hidan when we mentioned him. Asuma didn't.
      • This just seems weird. Genjutsu?
      • Why was Akane mindwalked for EM security but not Ruka?
  • Are we crazy?
    • What do we do next? Investigate privately? Discuss with Asuma? Drop it?
    • The obvious suspects are other members of EM nuke conspiracy.
  • Take the Sealing Exam
    • Prep with Kagome (for tags)
    • Aim to impress
    • Be respectful of the examiner. Offer a post-exam gift as thanks.
--------------------

Suggestions welcome, ping me here or on Discord. This needs WC trimming, so anything in that vein is especially welcome.
Plan updated yet again, added a couple lines (bolded). It's now 299 words. I'll keep an eye on the thread until I go to bed and lock it in then
 
@Sir Stompy I am uncertain that the post-exam gift would be an appropriate thing (as it depends on whether or not we get the result immediately or not), and would highly recommend a sanity-check for that.
 
@Sir Stompy I am uncertain that the post-exam gift would be an appropriate thing (as it depends on whether or not we get the result immediately or not), and would highly recommend a sanity-check for that.
Isn't giving small gifts to people who are in authority over you a polite thing to do in Japanese culture? I don't think I have the WC for a whole sanity check, but I can specify a small gift if you think that's sufficient
 
Isn't giving small gifts to people who are in authority over you a polite thing to do in Japanese culture? I don't think I have the WC for a whole sanity check, but I can specify a small gift if you think that's sufficient
I don't know if offering small gifts to an examiner would be polite in Japanese culture. I definitely do not know if it would be appropriate in a 12th century-esque dictatorship. I do believe that specifying a small gift would not change my concerns.
 
@Sir Stompy Given that Snowflake is a Shadow Clone of Kei, and by definition must receive Kei's memories of EM Nukes, she must be cleared to know about EM lest Kei be banned from ever using Shadow Clone ever again on pain of treason. I would recommend deleting the relevant parenthetical to make word count for my suggestion.
 
[X] Action Plan: To Speak in Vain to Silent Ash

I like this plan, just a few comments.

Ruka is a suspect (or catspaw): she assigned Akane the mission early, didn't report it overdue.
I'm pretty sure one of the QMs said that we don't know who assigned the mission because the tower didn't keep a record of it.

I'll also note that, in addition to this being a pre-planned ambush with aid from an infiltrator in the tower, it's also possible that the enemy has some form of instantaneous communication (e.g. someone in Leaf with a summoning scroll) or that they had a ninja infiltrate Leaf who, very shortly after learning of the mission assigned to Team Akane, ran at full speed for the border to notify a waiting team, without being detected by Leaf (for all I know, this happens all the time, but we should ask if it would be surprising given how secure we believe Leaf to be against infiltrators). In any of these cases, it seems weird that Asuma and Shikamaru were not much more freaked out about what happened to Akane. It could be worth bringing up some of these alternate possibilities with Mari, Kei, and Snowflake.
 
@Sir Stompy Given that Snowflake is a Shadow Clone of Kei, and by definition must receive Kei's memories of EM Nukes, she must be cleared to know about EM lest Kei be banned from ever using Shadow Clone ever again on pain of treason. I would recommend deleting the relevant parenthetical to make word count for my suggestion.
The extent to which Kei's memories are visible to Snowflake and vice-versa is not clear to me. As I understand it, Kei's memories are intelligible to Snowflake and the reverse is not true, but I could be mistaken. Not willing to risk EM nuke opsec over it.

This whole minor gift requiring a sanity check seems ridiculous to me. But I will say it is a Mari-approved gift if that will satisfy you.
 
I'll also note that, in addition to this being a pre-planned ambush with aid from an infiltrator in the tower, it's also possible that the enemy has some form of instantaneous communication (e.g. someone in Leaf with a summoning scroll) or that they had a ninja infiltrate Leaf who, very shortly after learning of the mission assigned to Team Akane, ran at full speed for the border to notify a waiting team, without being detected by Leaf (for all I know, this happens all the time, but we should ask if it would be surprising given how secure we believe Leaf to be against infiltrators). In any of these cases, it seems weird that Asuma and Shikamaru were not much more freaked out about what happened to Akane. It could be worth bringing up some of these alternate possibilities with Mari, Kei, and Snowflake.
There are very good reasons to doubt they have a Summoning Scroll in Leaf, Summoning scrolls are very visible they would need to be concealing it the entire time and stash it where it could be stolen. Not a good way to keep your Summoning Scroll. We also don't know of any Summoners in the EN except in Leaf, Akaksuki and Grandmaster F. Summoners are very notable (giant talking animals tend to be so) and they would need 2 Summoners to pass messages.

I'm inclined to say instant messages being passed via Summon is <0.1% chance, and disregard it.

As far as exiting and entering Leaf, as I understand it, nobody gets in or out without a pass. You could ninja-walk the walls, but doing that in broad daylight without a pass...... it's not a good plan. I'll see if I can make raising the issue more explicit without adding WC at this point.
 
The extent to which Kei's memories are visible to Snowflake and vice-versa is not clear to me. As I understand it, Kei's memories are intelligible to Snowflake and the reverse is not true, but I could be mistaken. Not willing to risk EM nuke opsec over it.

This whole minor gift requiring a sanity check seems ridiculous to me. But I will say it is a Mari-approved gift if that will satisfy you.
I think that is a reasonable compromise.
 
In any of these cases, it seems weird that Asuma and Shikamaru were not much more freaked out about what happened to Akane.
It seems unlikely to me that Shikamaru or Asuma would have Akane killed to preserve EN opsec when Isan still, uh, exists, and that if they did they would at least pretend to freak out about an enemy infiltrating the tower. And if it's expected that at least some of the tower staff will be infiltrators and this can't be avoided, then Akane obviously should have been receiving missions only from known trustworthy staff. So the relative lack of freaking out / concern displayed on Asuma's part seems bizarre to me, and I think there must be some other factor, which the QMs haven't conveyed to us or which I didn't pick up on, that explains this, and I look forward to discovering what it is.
 
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