DoofQuest- a Disney Villains Victorious CK2-Style Quest

[Nystical]

Sry, but using *stocks* as an analogue does not make it better since to me, that stuff (like cryptocurrency and NFTs) is essentially gambling only slightly removed from being an outright scam.

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I'm talking mutual funds / index funds that have built-in diversification, not picking specific stocks. For example, search "S&P 500" and look at the long-term trend.



Knowing we have the house edge on inators is just like knowing that in the long run the stock market will go up (we have 230 years of evidence for the US stock market). Both are pieces of information that inform the rationale for making a decision. Because we know the stock market will rise in the long run, we rationally decide to invest in it using the appropriate investment strategies. (the stock market increasing in the long run is technically only evidence-based prediction, but we know for a fact by WoG that the house edge on inators thing *is* true).

Sure, you could argue that for example, the off chance zombie outbreak would mean all the money you invested in the stock market would have been better spent buying cans of beans or something... but based on probability, the smart thing to do is to invest for your retirement if you can afford to do so.

The arguments I've seen against inators *that cite probability* as the reason have either been outright wrong, or are intentionally or unintentionally misleading in my opinion.

 

[TheGleeman]

Sorry, but the idea that the stock market *can* only go up was one big reason for the Big Crash of the late 20s - meaning that trying to ignore the possibility of things going belly-up on the simple ground of it "being improbable" is a very foolish thing to do.

What I am saying is that, while we can and maybe should continue "investing" in Inators to profit from their "payouts", we should also accept the possibility of them shooting us in the foot and plan accordingly (remember how the Rainfood-Inator very nearly emptied our "pocket money" a few turns ago? That sort of thing)

 

[Arathnorn]

Also, did we tell Doof about David or what?

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This was a joke that possibly didnt translate so well. The gnomes basically did nothing but tell Doofenshmirtz for two days. The vote just made them stop flinging those memories into the pit bucket brigade style as quickly as they formed.

And on the talking to bossman topic, apparently we already did that with Wendy on the turn she cracked AI.

So not sure why she didn't appear on the wall with Goofy and Janna.

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We do intend to update the Bossman actions in the near future to make them a bit more dynamic, but you shouldn't expect any one thing to be a 'magic make friends button', anymore than therapy has been a Magic Character Development Button.

 

[Tlax]

I suppose that leaves no other option but to invest personal and occult actions into that magic make friends spell. Damn.

Though before befriending Wendy can get started, it might be better to check if she'll continue being employed, or even alive, come next interlude.

 

[sunsunsunsunsun]

Though before befriending Wendy can get started, it might be better to check if she'll continue being employed, or even alive, come next interlude.

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I'm sure she's fine. Its a personal, those generally don't kill you. She might come back with a huge Malus or something....

 

[Nystical]

Sorry, but the idea that the stock market *can* only go up was one big reason for the Big Crash of the late 20s - meaning that trying to ignore the possibility of things going belly-up on the simple ground of it "being improbable" is a very foolish thing to do.

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I never said the stock market only goes up, I said that the data shows it goes up in the long run, that allows the possibility if it coming down at various times ("short runs"). I *also* gave the possibility that it might crash and never recover.

But aside from splitting hairs about the real world, here we have Word of QM that we have the house edge on inators, so we don't need to rely on evidence based assumption like real world economics.

I said both of those things in the previous post so your focus on parts of my post that become irrelevant with those facts in mind is kind of irksome, like the writing equivalent of merely waiting for your turn to talk in a conversation as opposed to actually listening to the other person and responding.

What I am saying is that, while we can and maybe should continue "investing" in Inators to profit from their "payouts", we should also accept the possibility of them shooting us in the foot and plan accordingly (remember how the Rainfood-Inator very nearly emptied our "pocket money" a few turns ago? That sort of thing)

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When did I say something that made you think I didn't accept the possibility that it could ever have a bad result?

I'm arguing against people that want to stop activating inators forever even if they don't say the quiet part out loud: the ones that keep bringing it up every turn. It is a gamble, but unlike a gamble in Vegas, where you are expected to eventually lose by continuing to place bets, we're expected to win by continuing to place bets. Sure, the occasional bad hand can happen, but in the long run we should keep playing.

 

[mangawriter77]

So, Doof has been subconciously suppressing his memories of Perry. That's... honestly concerning due to how much of an impact he had on Doof's life and was, arguably, one of the best things to happen to the guy. Hopefully, the next few turns go by fast so Technor can start on that.

Also, about inators: I'm rather nervous about only doing one roll for inators, but that's because I'd rather have Tinker be an option due to it being useful damage control if we roll poorly (and we have a history of doing that). However, I acknowledge that Tinker is not really an option anymore. As such, I'm leaning more towards no inators for a couple turns, just to see what happens

 

[Silent Grove]

"How long have they been going now?" Doofenshmirtz asked.

"Two days." Dreamfinder said, all exuberance fully drained from his voice.

"Can we hurry this up please?" A particularly sweaty one of you asked. "I have to keep throwing these new memories off the Walk of Self-Delusion as quickly as he's making them!"

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Time is wonky inside the head but this is too much.

"It's not the first time you've inspired me to jump off a cliff and fall several hundred meters only to be caught at the last second, and it won't be the last! Let's just get going."

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Move your office Technor.

"Wait, do you have a mindscape? How would that work?

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View: https://youtu.be/vDX_xlZoFwY

The normal lobby was, however, nowhere to be found. Instead the lobby was the entrance to a gilded purple theatre, open doors spilling into a central auditorium.

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[Idea of Marion goes here]

Judge Doom's image gave off an almost palpable aura of malice, despite itself being plastered over a barely-visible sketch of Syndrome in full monologue.

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No one was ready for Syndrome.

Raw Check

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I was expecting Doof to roll against himself but this has more oomph.

He has declared an Evil Sabbadtical and is unwilling to work on anything therapy related for the next three turns!

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Yes!

Agent Unknown

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HEINZ! THERE WAS A RHYME SCHEME!

All personal actions for the next turn will take a -10

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Internet and potions.

 

[TheGleeman]

I never said the stock market only goes up, I said that the data shows it goes up in the long run, that allows the possibility if it coming down at various times ("short runs"). I *also* gave the possibility that it might crash and never recover.

But aside from splitting hairs about the real world, here we have Word of QM that we have the house edge on inators, so we don't need to rely on evidence based assumption like real world economics.

I said both of those things in the previous post so your focus on parts of my post that become irrelevant with those facts in mind is kind of irksome, like the writing equivalent of merely waiting for your turn to talk in a conversation as opposed to actually listening to the other person and responding.


When did I say something that made you think I didn't accept the possibility that it could ever have a bad result?

I'm arguing against people that want to stop activating inators forever even if they don't say the quiet part out loud: the ones that keep bringing it up every turn. It is a gamble, but unlike a gamble in Vegas, where you are expected to eventually lose by continuing to place bets, we're expected to win by continuing to place bets. Sure, the occasional bad hand can happen, but in the long run we should keep playing.

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I am honestly not quite sure where you are getting the idea that probability is on our side right now, tbh.

We are essentially *gambling* rn and even in reputable casinos, the odds are AGAINST the customers by design in the end, after all.

I mean, casinos aren´t a charity, so they have to get back with interest any money customers might win every now and then - it´s just that crooked casinos only *pretend* to give a customer even that improbable chance of a big payout in favor of loading the dice and stuff.

 

[BlueWerewolf25]

Mhmm, well to throw in my two cents... I'm curious about having a "no Inator" turn for next round, just to see how it will go. Although in general I do not see any problens with Inators. Our luck has just been lately mediocre with them.

 

[TheCount]

I still can't remember why it was thought to be a good idea to send her on a red texted personal...

 

[Nystical]

I am honestly not quite sure where you are getting the idea that probability is on our side right now, tbh.

We are essentially *gambling* rn and even in reputable casinos, the odds are AGAINST the customers by design in the end, after all.

I mean, casinos aren´t a charity, so they have to get back with interest any money customers might win every now and then - it´s just that crooked casinos only *pretend* to give a customer even that improbable chance of a big payout in favor of loading the dice and stuff.

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We have the house edge, which means we are the casino, not the gamblers.

And you're wondering where I get the idea? Because the quest mechanics page says so. If you can't trust the literal mechanics page straight from the QM's mouth, then you got problems.

 

[Silent Grove]

I still can't remember why it was thought to be a good idea to send her on a red texted personal...

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We should get some rope for the memory hole.

 

[argonlyzard]

I still can't remember why it was thought to be a good idea to send her on a red texted personal...

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More or less the idea I believe was to try to keep on top of the situation and not just wait for it to have a chance to blow up in our faces because we left it by the wayside, the problem there is that we rolled a nat 1 but honestly with cases like that what can you do, sometimes the dice just dislike someone

 

[Arathnorn]

I am honestly not quite sure where you are getting the idea that probability is on our side right now, tbh.

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Right here: Inators are on average better than not. Its not a large edge, maybe 53 out of 100 positive to 47 negative off the top of my head, so it is a meaningful risk for an on average small reward, obviously, but on net they are better than nothing. The question is basically how risk averse you are at the time.

 

[TheGleeman]

We have the house edge, which means we are the casino, not the gamblers.

And you're wondering where I get the idea? Because the quest mechanics page says so. If you can't trust the literal mechanics page straight from the QM's mouth, then you got problems.

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No

*The QMs* are the casino in the end and they CAN´T be too lenient with probabilities without fucking over game balance.

So it´s less me not trusting them and more me being aware of the *End* of their generosity for balancing purposes.

To further use the casino allegory:

The QMs as "the house" simply can´t afford to vomit too many or too big payouts without "bankrupting themselves" in the form of the game balance going belly-up.

 

[sunsunsunsunsun]

I still can't remember why it was thought to be a good idea to send her on a red texted personal...

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hey, Seeds was Red Text and that turned out pretty well overall.

So it´s less me not trusting them and more me being aware of the *End* of their generosity for balancing purposes.

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Thats.. not how anything works. The QMs aren't going to just change the rules of the game because we start making progress. If that was the case we would never have gotten Mirage or Agent unknown, or Technor, or Tobe or RODDY BLAIR KING OF LAIR!

 

[Nystical]

No

*The QMs* are the casino in the end and they CAN´T be too lenient with probabilities without fucking over game balance.

So it´s less me not trusting them and more me being aware of the *End* of their generosity for balancing purposes.

To further use the casino allegory:

The QMs as "the house" simply can´t afford to vomit too many or too big payouts without "bankrupting themselves" in the form of the game balance going belly-up.

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No

Right here: Inators are on average better than not. Its not a large edge, maybe 53 out of 100 positive to 47 negative off the top of my head, so it is a meaningful risk for an on average small reward, obviously, but on net they are better than nothing. The question is basically how risk averse you are at the time.

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If you can't trust this direct statement then I don't know what to say except that you have given me an appreciation for woweed.

 

[nwish425]

The casino allegory doesn't work because the GMs aren't like a casino, a casino wants you to stay for as long as possible so they can get money out of you though slightly rigging probability in their favor. They present things as if you have a good chance but the odds are always in their favor.

The GMs are just trying to run a fun quest.

 

[TheGleeman]

No



If you can't trust this direct statement then I don't know what to say except that you have given me an appreciation for woweed.

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The bit you quoted shows that we are talking "slightly better than a coin toss" odds here - something I know we took and made work in the past, but not without careful deliberation and at least some kind of failsafe.

Deliberation and some kind of failsafe are all I am asking for, pal.

Also, what does Woweed have to do with it?

 

[BurnBright]

Again, no one is saying we should never activate -Inators. All people are saying is that we should only activate them when we have a cushion against bad stuff, aka tinkering.

 

[TheCount]

hey, Seeds was Red Text and that turned out pretty well overall.

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No it wasn't red, just orange.

[ ] Work on ??? with Jumba
It's a little hard to believe that you've made a friend in your alien coworker, and he's even better at genetics than you are! Maybe it's time to bring that up...

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[ ] Work with Janus on ???
Inexplicably, human Janus has proven insightful and personable! This has never happened before! Perhaps humanity is not mere country bumpkin race. Some of these ideas he is having could be collaborated into major project...

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Red text was always high impact and immediately dangerous, orange, on the other hand, while still high impact just has the chance to turn dangerous, imo at least.

 

[Jastolus]

When considering the risks and rewards of Inators, it's not just the good/bad probability that matters, but also the amplitude. As in, is a bad Inator worse than a good Inator is good?
Losing three income will usually be more significant than gaining three, because of proportionality, comparison to zero, threat of going into the negative, interrupted plans, and so on. With that in mind, a perfectly symmetrical good/bad set up would be something you probably shouldn't gamble on. And a small shift towards nominally positive Inators won't help much with that.
Which isn't to say "Inator's bad". Just a complication.

 

[sunsunsunsunsun]

Red text was always high impact and immediately dangerous, orange, on the other hand, while still high impact just has the chance to turn dangerous, imo at least.

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Eh, These two also have Red text, and neither really signifies "imminent danger"

[ ] Train with Macbeth
The demon is still out there, and Janna's prophecy indicates that she's going after Star next. Macbeth seems to have some sort of relationship with her- exactly what, you're not sure- but he's offered to teach you all her tricks and the best way to kill her. Spend the next few months training so you don't have a repeat of what happened in New York.

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[ ] Develop AI
DC 140
Choose subcategory of military, civilian, or consumer

After discovering the secret of AI, the next step is to work on commercial applications. The possibilities are numerous and the potential profit to be made is enormous… although some would urge us to consider the ethical implications of such an act. There may be certain risks involved in AI development…

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[MrHobbit]

Eh, These two also have Red text, and neither really signifies "imminent danger"

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I would argue that the Trevor action red text was definitely in the "imminent danger" variety, but you do have a point about it not always meaning imminent danger.

To answer @TheCount's question, we sent Wendy there hoping she would be able to positively affect it and we didn't trust it to hold off for a turn. We sent Norm as backup, so it is not like we didn't try. The nat1 was just bad luck.