Really? Psychic defenses and one of the best spying tools around?
Yup. It's just psychic defenses and astral projection. Lots of people can do that. Horvath is going for the Merlin book, so it's only the redhead and Pandarus we need to worry about. So I don't know them, are they experienced magicians?
the big thing is. i don't think 10 will cut it due to multiple people not having bid on anything yet and our flubbed intrigue roll.
We know a lot of people are interested in the books, our flubbed intrigue roll was on the Alchemy book. That's good news, sorta, because people are probably interested in it too.
Like Simon says, people came for the final round, saved up for it. Means no item is likely to be ignored.
I really wish I didn't become intimidated by the Talisman lead and made a Morganian 7/Manual 10 bid vote last night; people really don't seem to think we can get a Talisman with a 10 bid. And in retrospect I should have put a 6/6/4 split in my plan last round.
But given how we didn't lose a single bid due to being outspent last round, I think the surety everyone has about absolutely needing to dump 17 on whatever we want to be really weird. Literally no-one has displayed that level of profligate spending so far. This a blind auction, and 17 is about 242% of the original bid; it's absolute overkill. 200% of any bid should be overkill, frankly, and we are going significantly past that. I do think it is worth betting "just" 10 here, and it's crazy that it's not considered enough.
That's my gut feeling, too. Disney was worth 12, that's not small change.
"No Risk, No Reward" bids the bare minimum on the Morganian Encantus. If anyone wants to bid on it, we have a 50% chance. If anyone wants to bid 'plus one-' and there are plenty of participants with money to burn in the last round- then we lose.
Meanwhile, if anyone really wants the talisman, "No Risk, No Reward" gives us only a modest chance of getting it.
The Morgana text was explicitly called out as something no one other than us and maybe Owen wanted. So someone might put the minimum bid on it, but it's also likely that people are using up their saved money on bids for other items. Can't bid more money than you have, so for most people, it's going to be all-in on one item, rather than spread out bets, and no one seemed very interested in the Morgana Encantus.
I don't know why we can't bid the minimum on an item nearly no one else is interested in. Even Owen is likely interested in the Merlinian copy for Xanatos' son. No one else is going for it. If there's anything we can be with the minimum, it's the Morganian Encantus.
Could someone fill me in on the lore here? Why is the Merlinian better for Xanatos' son than the Morgana?
yes. but there are 3 people who have not spent anything on the auction this far. this means they can bid very high. (ie 10 or over) on what they want.
that is the reason i want to spend over 10 on the talisman. spending over 10 on the talisman means we cannot spend anything on something else due to minimum bid being 7. so therefore we may aswell go all in on the thing we want so we absolutely get it.
Sure, but there's only two people who might go all in on something other than the Merlinian Encantus, and they might want the manual or the Merlinian. In other words, we might get lucky. And if we don't get lucky that way, maybe they'll bid ten or less. Maybe they'll win and they're a collector.
The problem is the math. We have 17 points. A 10 bid has a good chance of getting us the talisman, but, if we bet that, then we can only bet the minimum on the Enchantus, which almost-certainly won't be enough. So, best to just dump it all.
I don't think you can be almost certain on that. Who else is going to want to spend over 7 on the Morgana? And if they do bid the minimum, we could win the coinflip.
