Paths of Civilization

Drat. As expected, AN will try to make us fight tooth and nail for evolving Observance in goddamn Bronze age (for everyone else of course, not for us). If that is the end result, I would gladly pick one of our Mega-Projects as the proverbial sacrificial lamb.

Of course, trying to figure out which is the one to pick is going to be kind of a right mess to deal with, isn't it?

BungieONI said:

have a suspicion that we can test either of these and have a good chance of not damaging it.

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Mmm. Thinking about it, I suspect testing Sacred Forest won't break our wonder - but it might drop a nasty streak of wildfires on us.

I know we've discussed the implications of stopping anti-blight efforts before, and the risk of turning our forests into firetraps was one of them.

Sacred Warding I'm more worried about; we might lose our supply of cowpox-infected cattle if the testing goes on too long, because herd immunity is going to prevent smallpox for a while past the initial ceasing of effort.

NotteBoy97 said:

Won't challenging sacred warding involve tackling the belief that tiny 'demons' spread 'curses' and that humans can catch animal 'curses' which makes them more resistant to human 'curses'? So unless the small pox is out and about we can't really prove that the vaccination really works and unless we can find a different animal disease to help us I don't think sacred warding is the thing to challenge.

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Yeah this is basically the issue. It's ephemeral the Warding, they don't have the tools to properly test it.

What they do have is the Environmental know how to identify tree blight and test things. This is a physical phenomoenon that they can reach out and touch and see and taste, which is really the only group of phenomenon they can really test with their current set of tools.

Candesce said:

Whoo boy.

Testing Sacred Warding... not sure what would happen. I mean, we'd start suffering smallpox again eventually, the question is how much damage would we do to the wonder before it became obvious that yes, it had been doing something useful, and whether we'd be able to repair it afterwords.

Testing Sacred Forest? The big thing here is the soil erosion that the forests are preventing, right? If there's anything that might end up dropping us short a forest we could commit to supplying charcoal, though, this'd be it. And I really don't want to risk our ability to expand our charcoal sources.

Both of these will take time for their effects to be felt, and losing either of them would horribly suck. Hrm.

The big question for "This is a step too far" is what do we need to do? Justify that it is a step too far? How?

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It fights erosion and it fights our Chronic Tree Blight. The Blight is something we can clearly see and test so I think Forest is far less risky than Warding. Plus we will not lose the Expand Forest option from this, so we can expand our charcoal reserves.

Shaman Chief: has anyone been floating ideas beyond "foolish old shamans" about what caused the sacred beliefs that are being challenged?

[X] Send missions to the chief belligerents (Secondary Trade missions to Highlanders and Thunder Horse)
[X] Main provinces (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
[X] Challenge the validity of the Sacred Warding (???)

Warding is the one that's empirically useful within a generation. Sacred Forest will not activate. The reason the trees dot sick was that we accidentally drained all the people from the hills, causing stress. Now though, those hills are fairly heavily populated. Even without us explicitly taking care of them, there will be enough humans to not disrupt the ecosystem too much. And when our people see that, we have a really good chance of losing our tree options as people stop caring as much.

[X] Remind the lowlands of your wealth and power (Main Salt Gift)
[X] Main provinces (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
[X] Challenge the validity of the Sacred Forest (???)

Really, really want some Mysticism out of Main Salt Gift.
Not just taking the econ from the Main provinces (which is still advantaged due to only being a chance of stab loss) but because as before I'm concerned about population dynamics. I don't want stupid nomad ideas ruining the progress the March has made culturally in not being fucking morons.
Sacred Forest -> Next turn Main Study Forest fucking finally

[X] Look around for more reasonable people (Main Sailing Mission)
[X] Main provinces (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
[X] Challenge the validity of the Sacred Forest (???)

Sailing for synergy with our people learning new boat tricks, because i dont see us taking it manually, and because we always get screwed over in these quests because we never send out exploration missions, so we get blindsided
I'm 50-50 on the refugees, honestly.
Sacred Forest because it should be comparatively easy to test; still likely tie up a main action to study forest, but definitely easier and lower risk

Hangwind said:

[X] Send missions to the chief belligerents (Secondary Trade missions to Highlanders and Thunder Horse)
[X] Main provinces (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
[X] Challenge the validity of the Sacred Warding (???)

Warding is the one that's empirically useful within a generation. Sacred Forest will not activate. The reason the trees dot sick was that we accidentally drained all the people from the hills, causing stress. Now though, those hills are fairly heavily populated. Even without us explicitly taking care of them, there will be enough humans to not disrupt the ecosystem too much. And when our people see that, we have a really good chance of losing our tree options as people stop caring as much.

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I believe this is unintentional fear mongering. They do not have the tools to test the Warding. There is no smallpox around. And there has not been for generations.

As to what caused the Blight? We don't know, but I highly doubt it had anything to do with people moving around. The Blight is a constant thing so it will activate.

Spectrum said:

[X] Remind the lowlands of your wealth and power (Main Salt Gift)
[X] Main provinces (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
[X] Challenge the validity of the Sacred Forest (???)

Really, really want some Mysticism out of Main Salt Gift.
Not just taking the econ from the Main provinces (which is still advantaged due to only being a chance of stab loss) but because as before I'm concerned about population dynamics. I don't want stupid nomad ideas ruining the progress the March has made culturally in not being fucking morons.
Sacred Forest -> Next turn Main Study Forest fucking finally

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I'm thinking double main actually.

E: Sorry for double post.

BungieONI said:

The Blight is a constant thing so it will activate.

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It doesn't need to be the Blight, specifically.

Any disaster that managing the forests could have prevented should work.

Okay, not much time for a full analysis at present but:
Diplomatic moves?
[] Send missions to the chief belligerents (Secondary Trade missions to Highlanders and Thunder Horse)

This reestablishes our trade links, so we actually get news of the regional situation, and can react appropriately.
However, the lowlanders have smallpox, we can use it for testing purposes.

[] Remind the lowlands of your wealth and power (Main Salt Gift)

This impresses the shit out of people, but may also spark greed.

[] Look around for more reasonable people (Main Sailing Mission)

This is good for improving ships, though not super urgent.

[] Stay at home, garden (Main Expand Econ)

Unnecessary if we stay on Balanced really.

Settlement of conquered nomads
[] Stallion Tribes
[] Main provinces (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)

Stallion Tribes will further the issue of drifting values again. What to do with migrant populations is to scatter them across a very large area so they don't form a coherent subculture.
Also note that refugees will have no vaccination and that we're at Stability 2. We can tank it

One step further?
[] Challenge the validity of the Sacred Warding (???)

Okay, smallpox is easily available. It's endemic in the nomad tribes and the lowlands, so we can get a sample to reaffirm how it works.
This is important because people have forgotten why we do it, they think the cows bless us when its the pox.
It is thus easy for the warding to be proven. You take a refugee volunteer NOT to take in the Warding, and then test if they can get infected by smallpox passing into pox regions.

[] Challenge the validity of the Sacred Forest (???)

The Tree Blight is a fungal disease that comes as a result of managed forests being abandoned. The effects are going to be very subtle, and will not be visible for a long time yet.

The original Blight took centuries to actually become a problem.

[] This is a step too far (Challenge continues one last turn)

This is a trap. To evolve Observance you need to challenge both negative and positive values, because that's the only way to know what works and why.

[] Suppress this new movement (+1 Stability, WotG removed, Challenge failed)

This is just a failure.

[X] Send missions to the chief belligerents (Secondary Trade missions to Highlanders and Thunder Horse)
[X] Main provinces (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
[X] Challenge the validity of the Sacred Warding (???)

How do you prove the vaccine works?
By taking in people who are not vaccinated, then introducing them to trade missions to known pox infected regions. Smallpox is all over the lowlands.

AN gave us everything we need to solve this.
Right here, right now

Guile said:

What does Salt Gift do, concretely?

How does reminding the lowlanders of our strength help when they're gearing up to a war footing? What do you guys expect to gain from this? Is there anything stopping them from deciding to go destroy the elves for their vast salt reserves instead of poking their established neighbors?

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The important context here is that salt was basically gold. It's a luxury right up there in that tier. So what Salt Gift is *paraphrased from AN* showing up to your neighbor's lawn in a gold-plated car, throwing a mound of gold on their doorstep, and then saying: So what do you have?

TLR; We get Diplo, Prestige, maybe Art, small chance of mysticism, and give everyone else the not so subtle message that we're both rich enough to afford this and powerful enough to survive your attack, so sit down and shut up.

Guys: THE BLIGHT IS FUCKING GONE! IT HAS BEEN FOR GENERATIONS! DO NOT TEST THE SACRED FOREST, IT WILL DESTROY OUR CONSERVATION EFFORTS THERE!

Well one good thing if we challenge sacred forests we will finally be forced to do the one action we have always been avoiding "STUDY FORESTS" and may have to do the equally dreaded "EXPAND FORESTS" and its dastardly twin "BLACK SOIL"

[X] Remind the lowlands of your wealth and power (Main Salt Gift)
[X] Main provinces (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
[X] Challenge the validity of the Sacred Forest (???)

[X] Remind the lowlands of your wealth and power (Main Salt Gift)
[X] Main Provinces
[X] Challenge the validity of the Sacred Forest (???)
Currentlt there is a general malaise to our society I'm guessing it was the rush of war then going back to our general isolationism. I think we should start throwing festivals and general celebrations so our entertainment tech tree goes up at least. Although I want more boats as does the rest of our society apparently. I'm hoping the salt gift is what triggers the war for the lowlands and we are forced into it. Both our Marches are kicking ass easily up north and will do so until a hero arises from there.

Duesal said:

Don't worry. Give them enough time and they'll always try to raid us. They're nomads. It's what they're hardwired for in their lifestyle.

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The ones that come to us to trade, we welcome with open arms.

It's just the ones that start massing at our borders without saying a word to us that make us twitchy. I mean, to them, it's probably perfectly normal, because "Nomads gonna go where they need to go to feed their herds", but to us, it looks like they're just stacking up manpower for the next warlord to conscript and throw at us.

Guile said:

And then opening up cute little wine and cheese shops thousands of years before anyone would logically expect it!

They'll have names like "Let It Brie" and "The Grater Good" and be totally adorable.

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Also don't forget: "Cheese, Wine, and Happiness"

Lone Wolf 666 said:

But I don't want to deal with not-malaria.

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If it exists, we probably deal with it already on a minor basis, or it's one of those seasonal diseases we haven't seen a major outbreak of. Given that our civ (based on climate) roughly sits on the 37th paralell, the climate is hot and likely wet enough.

Hangwind said:

Guys: THE BLIGHT IS FUCKING GONE! IT HAS BEEN FOR GENERATIONS! DO NOT TEST THE SACRED FOREST, IT WILL DESTROY OUR CONSERVATION EFFORTS THERE!

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Please stop fearmongering and go back and read the handy quote someone put up a page or two ago detailing that the Blight is a constant battle.

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Additionally, if we challenge this we have a very high chance of evolving Observance. Even if we don't and we bung something up and still have only Observance the trait should let our people realizae something is wrong and we will get an opportunity to fix things.

Alectai said:

The ones that come to us to trade, we welcome with open arms.

It's just the ones that start massing at our borders without saying a word to us that make us twitchy. I mean, to them, it's probably perfectly normal, because "Nomads gonna go where they need to go to feed their herds", but to us, it looks like they're just stacking up manpower for the next warlord to conscript and throw at us.

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For nomads raiding pretty much anyone that looks like an easy target is also normal.

BungieONI said:

As to what caused the Blight? We don't know, but I highly doubt it had anything to do with people moving around. The Blight is a constant thing so it will activate.

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Hangwind said:

Fuck. We have tree cankers. There are a couple of different possible causes for this, but one in particular is worrying. Stress. Stress is caused when a tree isn't suited for its environment. And we might be the cause. After all, the update mentions that all of the tribes that used to live in those hills have drained away. The trees though, they were used to the presence of humans, with all of the changes we bring to an environment. Without humans, those same trees just aren't as viable as they once were, and the trees that do fine without humans are a long way out, so they can't repopulate the area as quickly. And the dying trees attract diseases which then spread the blight further. Two pieces of evidence support this. First, we seem to be finding evidence of humans in the initial blight areas. Second, our trees are totally fine. If the only difference between healthy and sick is the presence of humans, well, it kind of says what the cause is doesn't it?

Which is why I want to establish a new settlement. We're always going to struggle against the blight unless we get new people up there or less human dependent trees get established. And if the less dependent trees get established, then we're going to havethe same problem again when we do settle up there, because the environment will have to adjust back to us.

@Academia Nut Have I hit the salient points?

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Academia Nut said:

Looks like it.

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Please stop trying to destroy one of our best advantages. You don;t know what you're talking about.

NotteBoy97 said:

Well one good thing if we challenge sacred forests we will finally be forced to do the one action we have always been avoiding "STUDY FORESTS" and may have to do the equally dreaded "EXPAND FORESTS" and its dastardly twin "BLACK SOIL"

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Actually, theres not enough evidence to protect it. Tree canker works on the scale of decades to get going.

Dispensing suppressants before mods got paged. Forest for life!

veekie said:

The original Blight took centuries to actually become a problem.

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How long does it take a managed forest to turn into a firetrap once it's stopped being managed?

I rather suspect that testing either of our wonders is likely to leave our wonders more-or-less intact and evolve observation, but hit us with a disaster that the wonder was protecting us from in turn.

Hangwind said:

Please stop trying to destroy one of our best advantages. You don;t know what you're talking about.

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Pretty sure you were the one who figured out we had a blight problem the first time around so I'll defer to you on this.

[X] Send missions to the chief belligerents (Secondary Trade missions to Highlanders and Thunder Horse)
[X] Main provinces (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
[X] Challenge the validity of the Sacred Warding (???)