Paths of Civilization
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Umi-san
Procrastinating.
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- ꙮ
plz no
If actions each contributed a flat 0.5 actions to a pool every turn, we would have gotten 2, not 3, provincial actions this turn. Rounding is therefore more likely.
Whether or not the settlement should be done soon will be more easily determined with more info.
BungieONI
Seven gremlins in a trench coat
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If you look at my mini analysis post I think I've charted a path to that expansion that makes every one happy.
[Main] Expand Warriors
[Secondary] Establish Annual Festival/Grand Sacrifice
[Secondary] Study Metal
-3 or -4 Econ, +2 Martial, potential additional effects. +1 Stability, chance for additional effects from festival. -1 Mysticism, chance of new metal insights.
Leaves us at ~6-7 Econ, 10 Martial, 2 Mystiscism and 1 Stability.
Followed by
[Main] New Settlement - Eastern Hills
[Secondary] Build Wall/Forest
[Secondary] ???
+1 Econ and +1 Mysticism end of turn, increases the number of times Expand Econ can be taken. Special: Main action for Eastern Hills produces a new province
-1 Econ, minor walls. Or. -1 Econ, grows forest, +1 Econ next turn if in settled territory and controlled.
This two turn plan settle our needs and accounts for some of the possibles that might crop up.
There are tons of scenarios in which that is not true: The province could start to provide the actions the same turn we make it, it could be a roll each turn to see if we get it, it could just be direct alternating or something else that we don't know about.
Planning more than 1 turn out is doomed to failure due to the sheer number of random events happening, but even excluding that: We've got enough warriors to defend from nomads and we need the centralization bonus when we the the new province. Why waste time settling our accounts now when they're interest-free and we can invest in permanent income immediately?
edit: Also, we want to survey those hills before planting forests all over them, and we don't really need to build walls ourselves now that our provinces can do it themselves (assuming this vote doesn't change)
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BungieONI
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Basically we have this next turn as the HK and TH beat the ever unliving shit out of the DP to sort ourselves and prepare to poke out of our Hill. And then we can use the turn while the lowlands have the dust settle to pop in and take this province which is a bit north of them and the lowlands proper. It's even still minor-ly hilly so we have a defensive bonus of some degree.
Why do we need to sort ourselves, and why wait for the dust to settle when we can do it while the dust is still being kicked up and drawing all their attention?
edit: oh yeah, also:
If we want to deal with the nomads, Chariots is a far superior choice to more infantry.
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- Location
- Panama City
You seem to keep forgetting about the nomads who are already attacking us. We need to expand military to deal with them.
I am of the opinion since we get guaranteed advancements from a main chariots(and it IS one of the tings that will get the nomads to back off) we should do that first, then mass warriors a couple turns later.
BungieONI
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*sigh*
Ok. Straight up?
This thought path is the second most thing I don't agree with on this thread. The first being the general saltiness.
I'm not trying to predict things I am trying to plan things out in a way that really will achieve everyone's goals.
They are interest free now, and we could expand to the Eastern Hills on this upcoming turn. Let's call that Turn 1. The sticker is that they will be free the turn after too, Turn 2. A comet could pass over and everyone but us freaks because we are prepared. Gives us space to reach out on Turn 2. And if the DP do get eaten then we have time while the one who did the eating digests.
I don't think insisting on your path of New Settlement next turn is going to make to much progress against the Metal/Military bloc. Doing it this way means they are happy and much more likely to vote for your plan. I hope I got this across in a calm fashion. It's late here.
I was not quite advocating for waiting for the dust to settle. My thoughts on the path are Dust is being kicked up next turn > Dust is in the air turn after as things start to sort themselves > Dust settles and we lose the opening.
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DkArthas
CAPITAL IS TO BLAME
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[X] Reinforce Northshore
[X] Send additional resources to assist (-1 Centralization, allows Northshore to spend Econ on defensive measures while being attacked)
[X] The People always welcome the needy (-1 Stability, +2 Econ)
Any plan that have settlement and Study metal has my support.
[X] Send additional resources to assist (-1 Centralization, allows Northshore to spend Econ on defensive measures while being attacked)
[X] The People always welcome the needy (-1 Stability, +2 Econ)
Any plan that have settlement and Study metal has my support.
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BungieONI
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I'm cool with a main Chariots instead of Warriors. Could go either way. I'd wait on input on possible advances before deciding.
We're dealing with them in two different ways: reinforcing the front via action this turn (effectively a secondary war mission towards them) and allowing Northshore to build a wall. They're almost certainly dealt with for this coming turn, though it's admittedly plausible that they'll be back the turn after.
But the salt is half then fun
Seriously though, I've learned to never expect plans to last more than a turn. That canal was put off for what was it, 5 turns? Our lowlands expansion -> attack has been deemed unprofitable (correctly). Planning more than a single turn out just doesn't work.
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Vote Tally : Paths of Civilization | Page 781 | Sufficient Velocity
##### NetTally 1.7.4
[45] Reinforce Northshore
[39] The People always welcome the needy (-1 Stability, +2 Econ)
[28] Send additional resources to assist (-1 Centralization, allows Northshore to spend Econ on defensive measures while being attacked
[18] The king will deal with the problems as they come (No change)
[10] Actively encourage the abandonment of the Dead Priest leaders by their people (-2 Stability, -1 Diplomacy, +4-5 Econ, chance to collapse the Dead Priests)
[3] Allow a free hand to deal with invaders (-1 Centralization, automatic actions to deal with invaders will be spent by subordinates instead of the king)
[2] Send ships to explore the southern coasts
[1] Send a trade mission to congratulate the Thunder Horse (-1 Diplo, +1-2 Diplo next turn)
Total No. of Voters: 51
##### NetTally 1.7.4
[45] Reinforce Northshore
[39] The People always welcome the needy (-1 Stability, +2 Econ)
[28] Send additional resources to assist (-1 Centralization, allows Northshore to spend Econ on defensive measures while being attacked
[18] The king will deal with the problems as they come (No change)
[10] Actively encourage the abandonment of the Dead Priest leaders by their people (-2 Stability, -1 Diplomacy, +4-5 Econ, chance to collapse the Dead Priests)
[3] Allow a free hand to deal with invaders (-1 Centralization, automatic actions to deal with invaders will be spent by subordinates instead of the king)
[2] Send ships to explore the southern coasts
[1] Send a trade mission to congratulate the Thunder Horse (-1 Diplo, +1-2 Diplo next turn)
Total No. of Voters: 51
BungieONI
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Ok I'm tired. SO I preemptively apologize and I know you are joking but I need this out of my system from that responseWe're dealing with them in two different ways: reinforcing the front via action this turn (effectively a secondary war mission towards them) and allowing Northshore to build a wall. They're almost certainly dealt with for this coming turn, though it's admittedly plausible that they'll be back the turn after.
But the salt is half then fun
Seriously though, I've learned to never expect plans to last more than a turn. That canal was put off for what was it, 5 turns? Our lowlands expansion -> attack has been deemed unprofitable (correctly). Planning more than a single turn out just doesn't work.
More seriously I don't believe that it is impossible to plan out for two turns. Three is pushing it but *shakes*
Here is why:
There are a ton of random factors. Total truth there.
What are they?
- Will the DP collapse?
- How much will they be hurt?
- Will the HK or Thunderhorse crit fail?
- Will the HK or Thunderhorse crit succeed?
- Will the nomads come down from the plains like the Second Coming of Genghis Khan?
- Will a comet arrive to fuck this region over?
- Will a disease come to fuck this region over?
- Will a volcano open up in the old ST lands and fuck Everything over?
- How well will our defenses hold against the nomads?
Here is how I attempt to deal with these factors.
- I give it a 40% chance the DP totally collapse next turn. If they do that means someone has to digest them which gives another turn.
- b The first turn of the HK and TH collapsing the DP will open a window where we can get metal and sort our stability for the refugee wave incoming in about a turn from then. The second turn where the DP are being digested we have the stability to at least accept some of the refugees without tanking Stability. We can still make a Main new settlement as we accept refugee's and build a Forest/Wall. The other secondary action can be a Grand Sacrifice to commemorate the grand fuck off the DP got and bring our stability to a good place.
- They will be severely injured if they don't collapse next turn. The influx of refugee's on the turn after the non-collapse will be smaller and the lowlands will approach a new status quo where the HK and TH are in dominance and absorbing their gains and eyeing eachother/the DP remnants. The smaller influx means our Stability drop will be lower on the second turn and we can easily recoup it with a secondary Grand Sacrifice while grabbing the new settlement and walls/forest.
- If they crit fail next turn shit goes kinda wonky-pants. The DP will be wanting vengeance and punching back. So the dust will start to blow in another direction and we can still grab some nice Stability things to prepare for HK and TH refugees. The turn after the crit fail and the DP will be staring out bloodied nose at the HK and TH as refugees come to us. The Eastern Hills province is ignored by the HK/TH/DP because it is inhospitable, not to the degree of the Badlands but still incredibly hard for the HK/DP/TH to colonize. It is also outside the Lowlands and is a good place to watch more closely. On the turn after the crit fail we can Main New Settlement and fix the Stability hit from the Hk/TH refugee's
- If they crit succeed next turn it goes pretty much as in 1. Who ever comes out on top will be who we have to diplomance. So we get in metal and Stability on the turn the crit succeed happens and prepare ourselves for a massive refugee wave the following turn. It will probably mean we will have to do New Settlement and Secondary Grand Sacrifce + Secondary Grand Sacrifce x2 to handle it properly.
- Hah! If this happens they bounce off us, bloodying both our noses, while a chunk goes down south to make the Lowlands a clusterfuck of epic proportions. Some will probably stick around to harrass us and we will come out of it hurting quite abit. We will probably achieve parity unless they go crazy and the full horde crunches us, which seems unlikely given the more open TH lands to our east. Probably one of the worst possible random shitstorms
- Well this'll be the second comet in about 5 generations but if we take a stability next turn and with our Mysticism we should be able to ride it out. Pissing the hell out of Negaverse SV. This will probably prolong the doomball of the lowlands. Widening the window so we can take Stability and metal next turn, make a settlement the turn after, and then giggle at the lowlands the turn after that.
- We will be almost totally unaffected by the disease that crops up. The lowlands will crunch and the doomball will flimey-wimey all over the lowlands as those three polities loose a good chunk of their population. This, like the comet, opens the window for us. Need to take stability next turn to absorb the refugees and then the turn after that take the new settlement as the our neighbors turn inward. It will also hit the Nomads and get them off our back.
- We are ALL Fucked. The TH will not really survive, The DP and HK will be "OH GODS WHY!?" if they are intact and we will Hurt. We will probably survive but god will it be painful. There aint a whole load we can do immediately during it but the following turns will be a golden opportunity to reach out a little after some turns of recovery.
- Our defenses have a very good chance to hold excellently against the Nomads(sac a goat to Murphy). They are not a concern for most of these evaluations.
Your image seems to be broken.
That being said, you have some interesting analysis there, I don't have time to analyze it closely (and it's a little disjointed). Overall though it seems like it supports my analysis of "We've got a lot of everything that needs to be done" and "Eastern hills should be pretty safe since everyone's busy and no one else wants them". I don't see any reason to put it off. Sure, we could delay it, but in basically none of your analyses would it actually help us to do so. Action economy is a small but continuous bonus. We should get those as early as we can so long as we're not in a crisis or near-crisis state.
As to the planning thing: those are just the random factors we're aware of. Things like the Tree Blight, the new Southern Vikings, or any number of other things could happen. They may or may not demand immediate attention, but it is never guaranteed.
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On the topic of mega-projects it seems like people are going for the Garden project next, while this project certainly has attractive benefits I'd like to argue that we should do the Dam first. Fundamentally the dam will improve our water management systems such that we become extremely resistant to both drought and floods something that plays to our civilizations strengths and philosophy of being able to survive the various natural catastrophes and then profit while everyone else has to recover. This project also has the benefit of being likely to improve our construction and general water management techniques. Lastly this project has been an option for a very long time and I'd like to get it done.
On another note, if we manage to complete both these mega-projects does anyone have any ideas about what further agro-ecological engineering projects we might get?
On another note, if we manage to complete both these mega-projects does anyone have any ideas about what further agro-ecological engineering projects we might get?
BungieONI
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Basically? You will trigger a frackload of salt by pushing for it before metal is done. The metal/military bloc will jump down your throat and I want to avoid the salt in the thread. Pre-emptive mediation.
Plus if we take metal and Stability first we have a solid base to grab the settlement much easier and we have the means to absorb the incoming refugees without everything autoigniting again.
Edit: And if we just do
[Main] New Settlement Eastern Hills
[Secondary] Build Walls Eastern Hills
[Secondary] New Trails
We aren't grabbing Stability and will be caught in a sorry state of coitus with the East Hills when the refugees come and then everything will be on fire again.
Picture.
Pichi Pichi AHHHHHHHHHHHH! Sparta meme.
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- Location
- Staring into the void
My preferred vote to expand to the eastern hills is:
[Main] New Settlement Eastern Hills
[Secondary] Expand Forest Eastern Hills
[Secondary] New Trails
[Main] New Settlement Eastern Hills
[Secondary] Expand Forest Eastern Hills
[Secondary] New Trails
Wow, I go for a meeting and there's so many posts.
Personal expectation:
-Thunder Horse will claim the northern and eastern stretch of the lowlands. They are poorly suited to making a push across rivers in force, as it is their greatest weakness. They will spread across the Eastern Hills Province given time if we don't take it first, it's not too different from the ST old pad they were living in.
-Highland Kingdom will spread to both banks of the western river, but fail to push across the center due to their high centralization. They don't have the technology needed to maintain control over that sort of barrier to the King.
-Dead Priest Tributaries between the rivers form several stable states. Likely to continue to make heavy use of slavery, but cuts off human sacrifice as their point of distinction.
-Dead Priest Core will form a final stable state around their capital. The site is simply too damned secure to fall by force, but likely will undergo major social restructuring once their sources of slaves dry up.
...you know, it'd be funny if what happened was that arsenic containing rock was being used for the cooking platform and it's leaching out into the liquid.
And there's basically no better action than Study Stars to spam for our provinces, since it generates +1 Mysticism(value is 2 Secondary actions) with a single action.
Stability does seem more valuable than Centralization currently, especially if we can Enforce Authority to raise it more efficiently by trading off Stability.
PROVIDED the central government is doing well for basic metrics.
Though currently the most powerful thing we can do for our military is to boost raw quantity of men and break through into volley fire. It doesn't give us retaliatory force yet, but we can decisively shatter any raiders with bows that completely outrange them.
I suspect Valleyhome will never stop studying stars unless there is a major crisis they can contribute towards.
That's where volley fire comes in. You don't need precision when you can saturate a specified zone with arrows.
First part of force projection is quantity. Second part is range.
We need manpower most of all for offensive action because we can't rely on superior maneuver away from home.
But there is a reason for the DPs to lose ground: Economy.
Factors:
-The DPs have gone on the back foot ever since the TH plowed into their rear after they botched their diplomacy. This likely was a TH [Main] War Mission, which costs them a point of Martial, Diplomacy and Econ.
-This require them to move their military towards their Eastern provinces to fend off the TH.
-Which caused the middle-lowland tributaries to start causing trouble and refusing to send tribute.
-Mechanically, this is most likely due to their Economy dropping from the TH raid while they had just invested a lot of Economy into something, causing a Stability drop.
-With Economy negative, they cannot perform a Grand Sacrifice or Festival to restore Stability. They must Restore Order.
--Then because they lost Stability, LoO triggers. We cost them another 2 point of Economy and boost their Stability by 1 by absorbing dissidents. Which kicks their Economy below 0 again, unless they spend two actions Expanding Economy to pay for it first.
-And then the Highland Kingdom smells blood in the water and hits them from the other side. They do some Martial and Diplomacy damage because the DPs are too busy paying for our Economy Vampirism to do anything BUT just try to Restore Order to +1 while taking double Expand Economy.
The HK and TH are somewhat mystified at why the DPs are such easy targets(because neither of them sees the refugee waves running in our direction, which doesn't cross their territory and raid zones, but hey, must be the will of the spirits.
Well, ancestral Thunder Horse raided and enslaved Highlanders, but thats nothing new. Cultural value wise they aren't incompatible. But looking at the map, the area is HUGE
Personal expectation:
-Thunder Horse will claim the northern and eastern stretch of the lowlands. They are poorly suited to making a push across rivers in force, as it is their greatest weakness. They will spread across the Eastern Hills Province given time if we don't take it first, it's not too different from the ST old pad they were living in.
-Highland Kingdom will spread to both banks of the western river, but fail to push across the center due to their high centralization. They don't have the technology needed to maintain control over that sort of barrier to the King.
-Dead Priest Tributaries between the rivers form several stable states. Likely to continue to make heavy use of slavery, but cuts off human sacrifice as their point of distinction.
-Dead Priest Core will form a final stable state around their capital. The site is simply too damned secure to fall by force, but likely will undergo major social restructuring once their sources of slaves dry up.
I'd freely admit that cooking poisons is something I have no knowledge of, aside from basic chemistry.
...you know, it'd be funny if what happened was that arsenic containing rock was being used for the cooking platform and it's leaching out into the liquid.
So chariots for force projection into the steppes, but raw quantity and mass organization is still severely lacking.
That's...pretty nice actually. Our governors discuss their relative needs, then they vote on who gets to have their shit done.
And there's basically no better action than Study Stars to spam for our provinces, since it generates +1 Mysticism(value is 2 Secondary actions) with a single action.
Stability does seem more valuable than Centralization currently, especially if we can Enforce Authority to raise it more efficiently by trading off Stability.
Actually, no. Based on how governments work, the more provinces, the more powerful the central government gets, because it means the King can always overpower any one province(whereas if you have 3 provinces, if one province rebels, the king doesn't really have the power to make a decisive solution feasible).
PROVIDED the central government is doing well for basic metrics.
FYI, chariot archers are elites, the skill to fire from an unstable moving platform is extremely rare.
Though currently the most powerful thing we can do for our military is to boost raw quantity of men and break through into volley fire. It doesn't give us retaliatory force yet, but we can decisively shatter any raiders with bows that completely outrange them.
Bit of both. Volley archers counter cavalry, but disorganized archer forces are countered by cavalry due to low stopping power. It's the psychological impact of having an entire row collapse at once compared to being picked off one by one that causes the horses and men to panic.
Very unsustainable however, unless your enemies are so polite as to attack you from one side at a time. The best part of allowing our provinces to spend on defensive constructions in response to attacks is that we can focus on retaliatory strikes.
There's basically no action more efficient than Valleyhome Studying Stars, since it grants cumulative benefits.
I suspect Valleyhome will never stop studying stars unless there is a major crisis they can contribute towards.
That's where volley fire comes in. You don't need precision when you can saturate a specified zone with arrows.
Not really? Given our description of our martial rating, it's not "We have reserves" but "we have elites". Currently about a quarter of our comes from Blackbirds, and a third from Chariots, based on past developments. We have a smallish main force, and a lot of elites.
First part of force projection is quantity. Second part is range.
We need manpower most of all for offensive action because we can't rely on superior maneuver away from home.
Fortunately we have the Economy that Redcoast can take Sailing Missions on their own, and likely would if we don't do it for them.
We know HK don't have their own mining yet. They've been too busy waging war.
But there is a reason for the DPs to lose ground: Economy.
Factors:
-The DPs have gone on the back foot ever since the TH plowed into their rear after they botched their diplomacy. This likely was a TH [Main] War Mission, which costs them a point of Martial, Diplomacy and Econ.
-This require them to move their military towards their Eastern provinces to fend off the TH.
-Which caused the middle-lowland tributaries to start causing trouble and refusing to send tribute.
-Mechanically, this is most likely due to their Economy dropping from the TH raid while they had just invested a lot of Economy into something, causing a Stability drop.
-With Economy negative, they cannot perform a Grand Sacrifice or Festival to restore Stability. They must Restore Order.
--Then because they lost Stability, LoO triggers. We cost them another 2 point of Economy and boost their Stability by 1 by absorbing dissidents. Which kicks their Economy below 0 again, unless they spend two actions Expanding Economy to pay for it first.
-And then the Highland Kingdom smells blood in the water and hits them from the other side. They do some Martial and Diplomacy damage because the DPs are too busy paying for our Economy Vampirism to do anything BUT just try to Restore Order to +1 while taking double Expand Economy.
The HK and TH are somewhat mystified at why the DPs are such easy targets(because neither of them sees the refugee waves running in our direction, which doesn't cross their territory and raid zones, but hey, must be the will of the spirits.
The vote I'm planning on doing (assuming nothing significant happens) is province+metal+trails. Metal is a massive improvement to everything we do on a societal level, and I agree with the salt of not getting metal ASAP. I'd be right there with the rest of them.
The military is the biggest issue, but our neighbors are in such a position and we have enough defensive bonuses and spare diplomacy that we shouldn't really have any problem on the defense from anyone we know about.
We saw last time that there are problems trying to expand forest at the same time we're setting up everything. Also, we want to survey the land first to make sure we're not burying anything important under the new trees. (We OOC know that these hills are more likely to have metal in them)
BungieONI
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Ok I'm mostly cool with everything except for one thing. No New Trails! *whap with newspaper*
What will we do when the refugee influx hit's the turn after/this next turn? My analysis was partially predicated on dealing with that. Basically any way the lowlands turn out there are going to be refugees to accept and since we will be at 0 Stability going off the current vote what will we do? Not taking a Stability option will piss off our civ even more and we get back to that nest of issues.
I will literally vote for no plan unless it gives us a Stability boost. They're coming. They are coming.
That's fair. Stability and centralization are both important, so I could definitely compromise on that. Centralization makes sure that we (as the central government) remain powerful, but stability will let us eat more of the refugee wave.
Province+Metal+Festival. Sounds fine to me. Puts us at 1 stability so we can Main sacrifice to max it out which would be nice if somehow nothing important happens during both this and the next turn.
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Carrnage
Human
- Location
- New Zealand
Don't we still have ancestral ponies rather than true horses?
- Location
- Panama City
Or how about we hold of on province this turn and get martial+trails+metal?
BungieONI
Seven gremlins in a trench coat
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I'm basically ok with this. THANK YOU FOR TALKING THIS OUT IN A REASONABLE FASHION!
*Doffs this hat*
Either Warriors or Province. I can see merits either way. Which one I pick will be determined by the situation.
*gentle newspaper whap* Easy there.
That way lies salt and bad things.