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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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Rihaku said:
Size and transience do not necessarily matter with something like a false vacuum collapse. This isn't a vague GM warning, they are being very specific that a small temporary rift can still be an existential threat, and Hazou is not well-informed enough to be confident that said threat is "infinitesimal
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This cannot be the case. If any rift was a 1/20 chance of something that can destroy the universe the universe would already be destroyed.

Rifts in general are common enough that that cannot be all that common. Assuming something like 2-3 Rifts opened in the EN per year for the last thousand years, the total number of Rifts opened must be in the thousands.

Anything remotely in the ballpark of FVD cannot be that likely. Anthropics demands it.
 
Rihaku said:
The specific player misconception Vel corrected was this:

1) A very small untargeted rift is infinitesimally unlikely to cause wide ranging consequences

This built on Paper's earlier statement that the rift might hit a part of the Out with exotic physics that causes a powerful negative reaction with this world. Players initially dismissed this statement because the rift was going to be both tiny and transient, and the answer was "no, those attributes don't make an untargeted rift necessarily safe for the world."

Size and transience do not necessarily matter with something like a false vacuum collapse. This isn't a vague GM warning, they are being very specific that a small temporary rift can still be an existential threat, and Hazou is not well-informed enough to be confident that said threat is "infinitesimal."
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Um. When did Paper state this? The quote was:
Paperclipped said:
He would rather not accidentally connect a particularly dangerous/malevolent part of the Out to the Path where he lives…
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That reads to me much more like "a part of the Out occupied by dangerous things" than "a part of the Out with exotic physics". Remember, there have been lots of presumably-untargeted rifts in the past, enough for them to be widely recognized as a category of things that happen, so probably at least a hundred over the thousand-year (I think?) history of sealing and likely more. None of those rifts destroyed the world.
 
Kyreneryk said:
That reads to me much more like "a part of the Out occupied by dangerous things" than "a part of the Out with exotic physics". Remember, there have been lots of presumably-untargeted rifts in the past, enough for them to be widely recognized as a category of things that happen, so probably at least a hundred over the thousand-year (I think?) history of sealing and likely more. None of those rifts destroyed the world
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Hazou has opened 5-6 by himself lol.
 
Zampano said:
to achieve the benefit of… a dangerous random effect on a success
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Well, I would argue that the benefit is "You can research Rift Runes with the resulting rift scar." which is the entire point?

The gist of the argument boils down to "If we are going to start jumping at shadows and small chances of something bad happening, then holding this position consistently (as we should if we believe it to be that important) is going to result in a hell of a lot of jumping."
 
Sir Stompy said:
Hazou has opened 5-6 by himself lol.
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Four, I think, unless there are others besides the bladehorror rift and the three O'Uzu rifts? And we're a much more active research sealmaster than is usual and have probably survived a lot more failures than is usual for the amount we've had thanks to Kagome's safety setup. Plus rifts may have been less common as a failure effect before storage seals became widespread. But I agree a hundred is likely an extreme underestimate.
 
Kyreneryk said:
Four, I think, unless there are others besides the bladehorror rift and the three O'Uzu rifts? And we're a much more active research sealmaster than is usual and have probably survived a lot more failures than is usual for the amount we've had thanks to Kagome's safety setup. Plus rifts may have been less common as a failure effect before storage seals became widespread. But I agree a hundred is likely an extreme underestimate.
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I believe the cube failure was Rift based (or so I was told on Discord) and I could believe in another one somewhere in the quest we've forgotten about by now.
 
Zampano said:
By contrast, a Rune specifically designed to generate a rift carries the risk of dangerous failure (in the bad state) in order to achieve the benefit of… a dangerous random effect on a success. The impact of a successful research roll on Hazo's survival odds has different valence for the Microrift Rune and for the Force Dome Rune!
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Hm? Having a Microshift Rune at our disposal would be useful for the purposes of developing rift-moving runes, which would be useful for the purposes of foiling the Akatsuki's plans with less risk. Completing this rune would have clear positive benefits for us, same as Force Domes. We're not just doing it for the hell of it.

You're right that there's an additional risk factor where even the successful infusion of the Microrift Rune would be about as risky as an unsuccessful infusion of any other rune. (Or probably more like, "as risky as a low-end sealing failure". A minor runic infusion failure may be actually lethal, much more lethal than 5%.) But that's what I meant about the equivalence between the Microrift Rune's infusion and our research activities (which necessarily have minor failures as byproducts). By contrast, if I said something like "infusing the Microrift Rune is no more dangerous than (successfully) infusing any other rune", that would indeed be incorrect for the reasons you're pointing out, because successful infusions of "normal" runes are more or less completely safe. But that wasn't the analogy.

Unless I'm misunderstanding something?
 
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Sir Stompy said:
This cannot be the case. If any rift was a 1/20 chance of something that can destroy the universe the universe would already be destroyed.

Rifts in general are common enough that that cannot be all that common. Assuming something like 2-3 Rifts opened in the EN per year for the last thousand years, the total number of Rifts opened must be in the thousands.

Anything remotely in the ballpark of FVD cannot be that likely. Anthropics demands it.
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Yes, that is what I previously believed as well, but post-GM clarifications, especially Vel's post, it seems there is some factor we have not accounted for. Rather than insisting that we are correct and the GM's evaluations wrong, I think this missing factor may be the difference between sealing failure rifts and completely random rifts.

If, for example, a sealing failure is much more likely to create rifts to locations on the Paths or the 'local' Out, whereas a completely random rift is much more likely to access portions of the Out from the entire greater multi(?) verse, then the chance of encountering dangerous exotic physics is much greater in the latter.

That is one plausible explanation for the gulf between our prior beliefs and these GM statements.
 
Rihaku said:
Rather than insisting that we are correct and the GM's evaluations wrong, I think this missing factor may be the difference between sealing failure rifts and completely random rifts.

If, for example, a sealing failure is much more likely to create rifts to locations on the Paths or the 'local' Out, whereas a completely random rift is much more likely to access portions of the Out from the entire greater multi(?) verse, then the chance of encountering dangerous exotic physics is much greater in the latter.

That is one plausible explanation for the gulf between our prior beliefs and these GM statements.
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@eaglejarl @Velorien @Paperclipped

Is this an accurate summation of Hazou's thoughts here? Does he think there is a meaningful difference between the rifts created by the Microrift Rune and something created by a random sealing failure?

Or is the 95% a conservative lower bound of safety? Or perhaps something else is going on.
 
Rihaku said:
Yes, that is what I previously believed as well, but post-GM clarifications, especially Vel's post, it seems there is some factor we have not accounted for. Rather than insisting that we are correct and the GM's evaluations wrong, I think this missing factor may be the difference between sealing failure rifts and completely random rifts.

If, for example, a sealing failure is much more likely to create rifts to locations on the Paths or the 'local' Out, whereas a completely random rift is much more likely to access portions of the Out from the entire greater multi(?) verse, then the chance of encountering dangerous exotic physics is much greater in the latter.

That is one plausible explanation for the gulf between our prior beliefs and these GM statements.
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What QM evaluations, exactly, are you referring to here? IMO, the only really relevant paragraph from Velorien's post is:
Velorien said:
Rifts are not a common side effect of sealing failures so much as a notably distinct class of effect in a domain that otherwise lacks structure, and most sealmasters get killed if they encounter one. That said, most sealmasters open rifts much larger than a hypothetical Microrift, and don't have shadow clones or Kagome-safety-training, so Hazou thinks he's got pretty good odds on the Microrift rune; at least 95% of survival, probably higher. He's willing to roll the dice if you vote it in (though would definitely need to keep it secret from Kagome), but he doesn't think it'll ever be safe to poke random holes in reality.
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This is an evaluation on the part of Hazōpilot, which says that he has at least a 95% chance of survival, probably more. Note that it says nothing whatsoever about risk to the world, only risk to Hazō; this can be fully explained by the danger of something (living or not) coming out of the rift, which is a thing we can prepare for by e.g pointing REs at the site in advance, figuring out Remote Force Dome (which would be a good thing to have anyway) and sticking one of those over the site, etc. . Is there another QM statement somewhere that I've missed about risk to the world?
 
faflec said:
Something along these lines, though it can be something like us shooting into an underground tunnel: the adjacent Zones are rock and presumably an explosive can't originate from there.
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I would probably say that a "miss" in this situation is a detonation against the tunnel wall ahead of or behind the target spot, or something of the sort.
 
Kyreneryk said:
(Like, we knew there was airflow across one of the scars, but I assumed that just meant the scar was slightly leaky across its whole surface, not that there was a tiny area where the rift was still fully open.)
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Hazō does not actually know about the airflow as Hyūga did not feel it relevant to the requested investigation and thus did not mention it.


Kyreneryk said:
Four, I think, unless there are others besides the bladehorror rift and the three O'Uzu rifts? And we're a much more active research sealmaster than is usual and have probably survived a lot more failures than is usual for the amount we've had thanks to Kagome's safety setup. Plus rifts may have been less common as a failure effect before storage seals became widespread. But I agree a hundred is likely an extreme underestimate.
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There was a failure back in chapter 94 that might or might not have generated a rift. Hazō isn't certain what actually happened there, whether it was a delusion or an actual out-of-universe experience.
 
Sir Stompy said:
Is this an accurate summation of Hazou's thoughts here? Does he think there is a meaningful difference between the rifts created by the Microrift Rune and something created by a random sealing failure?

Or is the 95% a conservative lower bound of safety? Or perhaps something else is going on.
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95% is a conservative lower bound. Hazō is adequately confident in the safety of the procedure that he is willing to go ahead with it.

Cariyaga said:
Question: [When we spend an FP to do a difficulty check and then continue on to do the research such that the FP retroactively becomes an invoke d]oes the invoke apply to both the calligraphy and research roll?
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No, just to one of them. By default Sealing but you can specify Calligraphy/Earthshaping if desired.
 
eaglejarl said:
There was a failure back in chapter 94 that might or might not have generated a rift. Hazō isn't certain what actually happened there, whether it was a delusion or an actual out-of-universe experience.
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Also this one! Unsure if that counts as a rift or if the cube entity appeared through some other means.
eaglejarl said:
2. You had a seal failure while testing SINs. Stacks of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 worked fine. When you tried to put 6 in the stack there was an ear-splitting noise like two bandsaws cutting at each other. Moments later a gargantuan, glittering fractal shape slowly expanded from the point of sealing failure, giving the strangest sensation that it was analysing you despite looking completely inorganic. As it reached cloud height, your group started to think about calling a general evacuation, but then it began to disintegrate from the bottom faster than it was expanding at the top, and soon it disappeared. Within the area it touched (which was all of Gōketsu Seal Research Facility #4, plus an expanding vertical cone with a maximum height of 2 miles), everything was reduced to cubes with sides slightly larger than the first joint of Hazō's thumb. From the hivemind's god's-eye view you know that the sides of the cubes were exactly 3.14 cm each.


Note: GSRF4 was 2 miles into the woods and there was a slight wind blowing. Some of the cubes rained down over Leaf.
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@eaglejarl @Velorien @Paperclipped
Hello! A few questions have come up regarding Remote Explosive Runes (RE) and how the mechanics works when using multiple of them at once. Per Paper's request, I will outline an example scenario that we may find ourselves in within a few months.

Sasori and Hidan are having tea in O'Uzu, 30 meters away from the Pure Lands rift scar. They are both sitting on the ground with no warning of what is going to happen shortly.

Hazo is slightly less than 1 mile from Sasori and Hidan in the sky with the sun behind him. He has set up a skytower to work from and has infused and aimed 10 REs at Hidan and Sasori with the help of some Shadow Clones. The REs have seals (MARS if that is sufficient, if not then a new seal that works with REs) that are linked to a MARS chain leading from Hazo.

Hazo activates the MARS chain before Sasori and Hidan know that combat is going to happen.

What do Sasori and Hidan roll to dodge? Some possible solutions include:
- A single TN 100 dodge.
- A single dodge roll with a higher TN based on the number of REs firing at once.
- A TN 100 dodge roll for every RE that is fired.

Does the answer to this change if Hazo uses larger numbers of REs (50, 100, etc)?
Does the answer to this change if Hazo and Kei simultaneously activate MARS chains leading to these REs?
Does the answer to this change if instead of using MARS, each RE is activated simultaneously by a Shadow Clone?
Does the answer to this change if instead of using MARS, each RE is activated sequentially by a Shadow Clone?
 
ProperAttorney said:
@eaglejarl @Velorien @Paperclipped
Hello! A few questions have come up regarding Remote Explosive Runes (RE) and how the mechanics works when using multiple of them at once. Per Paper's request, I will outline an example scenario that we may find ourselves in within a few months.

Sasori and Hidan are having tea in O'Uzu, 30 meters away from the Pure Lands rift scar. They are both sitting on the ground with no warning of what is going to happen shortly.

Hazo is slightly less than 1 mile from Sasori and Hidan in the sky with the sun behind him. He has set up a skytower to work from and has infused and aimed 10 REs at Hidan and Sasori with the help of some Shadow Clones. The REs have seals (MARS if that is sufficient, if not then a new seal that works with REs) that are linked to a MARS chain leading from Hazo.

Hazo activates the MARS chain before Sasori and Hidan know that combat is going to happen.

What do Sasori and Hidan roll to dodge? Some possible solutions include:
- A single TN 100 dodge.
- A single dodge roll with a higher TN based on the number of REs firing at once.
- A TN 100 dodge roll for every RE that is fired.

Does the answer to this change if Hazo uses larger numbers of REs (50, 100, etc)?
Does the answer to this change if Hazo and Kei simultaneously activate MARS chains leading to these REs?
Does the answer to this change if instead of using MARS, each RE is activated simultaneously by a Shadow Clone?
Does the answer to this change if instead of using MARS, each RE is activated sequentially by a Shadow Clone?
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@eaglejarl @Paperclipped @Velorien , if there's enough variance in the activation time that the REs in the scenario described above wouldn't hit simultaneously - does the answer change if Hazō uses a Landmine version of REs that fire a single combat round after activation?
 
Pinging also @Velorien @eaglejarl

Paperclipped said:
Prep Great Seal.
Hazō (Primordial Sealing): 31 + 18 (crossover bonus from unboosted Sealing) + 6 = 55

Result: [TBD]
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Is the Great Seal Hard?

Does Hazou think he can replicate its function with a less complicated rune, since he has access to modern storage seal theory?

Is the Storage Rune we prepped a while back functionally the same as the Great Seal?
Paperclipped said:
Infuse Storm Rune.

Hazō (Earthshaping): 50 - 6 (timeladder down) + 10 (prep) + 6 = 60
Hazō (Primordial Sealing): 31 + 22 (crossover bonus from DoB-boosted Sealing) + 12 (Disciple of the Beyond) + 10 (prep) - 9 = 66
Hazō spends a FP to reroll!
Hazō (Primordial Sealing): 31 + 22 (crossover bonus from DoB-boosted Sealing) + 12 (Disciple of the Beyond) + 10 (prep) - 3 = 72

Hazō thinks he's about a third of the way done with this rune.


Infuse Air Leadening Rune.

Hazō (Earthshaping): 50 - 6 (timeladder down) + 10 (prep) - 6 = 48
Hazō (Primordial Sealing): 31 + 22 (crossover bonus from DoB-boosted Sealing) + 12 (Disciple of the Beyond) + 10 (prep) + 0 = 75

Hazō thinks he's also about a third of the way done with this rune. This has a pretty similar difficulty to the Storm Rune
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Are both of these runes Easy?
 
Paperclipped said:
The 'Sage' didn't have the power to make whole new Paths on his own, but he was able to twist and warp space and time pretty well.
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Paperclipped said:
The Animal Path was pretty wrecked by the Tenfold Abomination, so he pulled off a little chunk of it, made it livable, then put a veil around it to make it into its own Path. That's what we call the Seventh Path today.
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Paperclipped said:
Everytime the summoning technique is cast, it adds a little stitch to the connection between the Human Path and Seventh Path," Fukasaku said. "So the Animal Path tendrils aren't an issue, and it won't be for a long time. Sealing is like poking a hole in the fabric. That means a lot of things, but the big one is that if you hit one of the stitches that keeps the Seventh Path attached to the Human Path, you'll probably break it. Whereas if you hit one of the tendrils that's trying to drag the Seventh Path back to the Animal Path, the connection won't be broken – it'll just open up a larger hole for the next tendril to latch onto.
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Paperclipped said:
That all adds up to say this: don't infuse on the Seventh Path. Its existence isn't natural, as I'm sure you gathered.
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eaglejarl said:
The Great Seal is a spacetime effect that's being used to simulate storage, not a proper storage effect the way we would do it today. It's huge, literally the size of a mountain, and I think that's because it doesn't work like a modern storage seal. It projects a field outwards, across the entire Seventh Path
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eaglejarl said:
It's projecting its effect outwards across the entire Path instead of wrapping it into the local spacetime.
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I think there's a decent likelihood that the Great Seal is actually what's keeping the 7th Path separate from the Animal Path, and that the dragons were crossover from that Path leaking in.

The Summoning Scrolls would then likely be anchored in a way to the Great Seal, which is why they seem to be indestructible, and would be proof of concept that you can anchor a seal to a rune.
 
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