Retroactive vote. We're choosing what we did with word-halves during R1: either we took everyone's, or didn't take Team Kurenai and/or Team Downfall's, with an additional option to give some to Red Team One. I think it makes the most sense if we took everyone's (it's what we would've done then), but I could be convinced to leave Team Kurenai's.

Fair. That seems correct?:

In this case we (Uplift+ISC) have (60+15)/104 = ~72% of all word-halves. If we divide them evenly among Team Uplift, Team Asuma, and Team Kurenai, each of us will have ~8% of all word-halves. Would people realize our cunning plan and try to funnel all their word-halves into the hands of top-scorers, to deny Team Kurenai a spot?
Yeah that seems to be the case.

I agree that your edit is totes plausible. Everything else is basically what I would have done more or less, after actually thinking it through event by event.

Instead I chose to make some simplifying assumptions and then course correct, and do that two different ways really (naively with some probability and another with black magic).


I tried quite hard not to keep track of the actual arithmetic you were doing conceptually so as not to put any extra bias in. I think you and I are mostly in agreement then, and so I would wager that this is fairly realistic and that theres likely ~100 give or take a few and that @Adept_Woodwright 's distribution of those extra ones is pretty much on the money.(or at least, it makes as much sense to me as any other distribution that would look like that.)

To that end, I think we have completed the analysis modulo a handful of word halves either way that shouldnt really effect stuff too much. Sound reasonable, folks?

Edit: I am like, mildly put out that no one's commented on the analogy I put in the calc/justification. I thought that one was hilarious! :p
 
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I'll try to, once again, prove that Team Uplift is entirely untouchable as far as getting into the tournament goes.

Team Uplift's score is 586, and we're at the fourth/fifth/sixth places in overall rankings. It means that to get rid of us, the enemy will need to give higher scores to 13 people.

Let's pessimistically assume that after E4 there were 13 people with 400 scores. These are upper-quartile (theoretical max score is 650), but we'll further assume that they were put on ours or ISC's teams for E5 R2. This means they lost a mere ~500 points, and now have -100 score, 686 points below us. This means the enemy has to give them —

13 x (586+100) = 13 x 686 = 8918 points

— to sink us. Let's assume the enemy somehow got access to 80% of all word-halves, that is to say ~80 of them, and we have only 21, seven for each of us. 80/13 = 6 word-halves per enemy agent: still less than we have per person. (If word-halves are worth N points, we'll still get 7xN points per teammate, while enemy gets 6xN.)

That means we could freely give two-thirds of our stash without endangering our tournament positions even in theory.

Suppose we give up all our word-halves. Enemy now has 104 of them, evenly distributes them among 13 agents, giving each 8. To sink us, each word-half will have to be worth:

686/8 = 86 points

Which is implausibly high.

@MMKII, @Adept_Woodwright, @faflec
Edit: I am like, mildly put out that no one's commented on the analogy I put in the calc/justification. I thought that one was hilarious! :p
:)
 
I'll try to, once again, prove that Team Uplift is entirely untouchable as far as getting into the tournament goes.

Team Uplift's score is 586, and we're at the fourth/fifth/sixth places in overall rankings. It means that to get rid of us, the enemy will need to give higher scores to 13 people.

Let's pessimistically assume that after E4 there were 13 people with 400 scores. These are upper-quartile (theoretical max score is 650), but we'll further assume that they were put on ours or ISC's teams for E5 R2. This means they lost a mere ~500 points, and now have -100 score, 686 points below us. This means the enemy has to give them —

13 x (586+100) = 13 x 686 = 8918 points

— to sink us. Let's assume the enemy somehow got access to 80% of all word-halves, that is to say ~80 of them, and we have only 21, seven for each of us. 80/13 = 6 word-halves per enemy agent: still less than we have per person. (If word-halves are worth N points, we'll still get 7xN points per teammate, while enemy gets 6xN.)

That means we could freely give two-thirds of our stash without endangering our tournament positions even in theory.

Suppose we give up all our word-halves. Enemy now has 104 of them, evenly distributes them among 13 agents, giving each 8. To sink us, each word-half will have to be worth:

686/8 = 86 points

Which is implausibly high.

@MMKII, @Adept_Woodwright, @faflec

:)
There you have it folks.

ISC and us will be attending the tournament. And it pretty much doesn't matter what we do with the word halves, as long as we keep at least a small fraction for ourselves.

(There is the possibility that LOSING your own is a points malus to the tune of -100 or so, since you "failed event one")

Edit:

So really, Team Kurenai will live or die by our hand.
 
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(There is the possibility that LOSING your own is a points malus to the tune of -100 or so, since you "failed event one")

There's also a very real possibility that you can't gain any points for the first event if you lose your own word half. This is described as "failing" the event, which for all events up until now meant not being able to gain positive points. So, even if our enemies have a bunch of word halves, it probably won't do them any good. In that sense, we should probably return Team Kurenai's own word halves, to give them a fair fighting chance.
 
There's also a very real possibility that you can't gain any points for the first event if you lose your own word half. This is described as "failing" the event, which for all events up until now meant not being able to gain positive points. So, even if our enemies have a bunch of word halves, it probably won't do them any good. In that sense, we should probably return Team Kurenai's own word halves, to give them a fair fighting chance.
Very good point.

Im waiting til @eaglejarl rules on the actual distribution (is he convinced by our piles of math or not?) to start campaigning for one or the ofher.

EDIT: Not even the distribution. Just the actual math getting the amount in play, really.

Although, that might be a bit metagamey.


OTOH: We did all the math for him :p
 
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ISC and us will be attending the tournament. And it pretty much doesn't matter what we do with the word halves, as long as we keep at least a small fraction for ourselves.

(There is the possibility that LOSING your own is a points malus to the tune of -100 or so, since you "failed event one")
Yes, and there's a decent possibility that losing it means you blanket-fail the event: become unable to receive positive points for it. That's consistent with how other events were scored. (E: Ninja'd by @Roomba).

So I think if we specifically keep word-halves of known hostile top-scorers (Chinin, Downfall) and our own, we couldn't be toppled even if everyone else becomes single-mindedly obsessed with toppling us.

Also, ISC has ~950 points: 49 (E2) + 298 (E3) + 100 (low!E4) + 505 (E5). Pretty sure they can't fail whatever happens period, even if they actively cooperate with attempts to fail them.
 
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Yes, and there's a decent possibility that losing it means you blanket-fail the event: become unable to receive positive points for it. That's consistent with how other events were scored. (E: Ninja'd by @Roomba).

So I think if we specifically keep word-halves of known hostile top-scorers (Chinin, Downfall) and our own, we couldn't be toppled even if everyone else becomes single-mindedly obsessed with toppling us.

Also, ISC has ~950 points: 49 (E2) + 298 (E3) + 100 (low!E4) + 505 (E5). Pretty sure they can't fail whatever happens period, even if they actively cooperate with attempts to fail them.
Ren must be screaming!
 
Could we talk about how many slots are in the Tournament and who is likely to get them rather than focusing so narrowly on Team Kurenai? Because I think to truly evaluate whether we want Team Kurenai in the tournament, we need to understand who takes their slot if they aren't in it.

If their are likely to be taken by combat scrubs even weaker than them, then it becomes at least arguable to keep them out just to have an easier bracket. If their slots would be taken by the Lighting team with the guy who can call down lightning bolts and put up a lightning defense aura... yeah, let's keep those guys out.

So what are the best guess on who is in if Team Kurenai is out?
 
Could we talk about how many slots are in the Tournament and who is likely to get them rather than focusing so narrowly on Team Kurenai? Because I think to truly evaluate whether we want Team Kurenai in the tournament, we need to understand who takes their slot if they aren't in it.

If their are likely to be taken by combat scrubs even weaker than them, then it becomes at least arguable to keep them out just to have an easier bracket. If their slots would be taken by the Lighting team with the guy who can call down lightning bolts and put up a lightning defense aura... yeah, let's keep those guys out.

So what are the best guess on who is in if Team Kurenai is out?
We've done this, pretty much.

Its basically down to Round 1 Teammates of ISC or us, Round 2 Teammates and one or two Miscellaneous top teams.
 
Could we make a seal activation variant that checks temperature? Throw out a huge number of these seals then send out a fireball to activate the ones we have primed.
 
Team Uplift's score is 586,
By my count you have 467 or 496:

Event #2+3+4+5
Hazō: 50 + 315 + -223 + 325: 467
Noburi/Keiko: 49 + 315 + -223 + 325: 466

Fifth event, round 1: +185
Turned in documents: +75
Turned in in first hour: +110
No injuries: -0

Fifth event, round 2: +140
Still had documents: +50
24 prisoners: +240
6 members had moderate injuries (from first round): -150

24 prisoners: 36 red team members. You didn't get ISC's team (9 people) or Kurenai (3 people). You got everyone else.


and we're at the fourth/fifth/sixth places in overall rankings
Are you sure?

So really, Team Kurenai will live or die by our hand.
Are you sure? Do you know what their earlier scores were? (Note that their swamp scores are being updated. We'll announce what the total was as soon as QMs have agreed on it. I have a proposal in to the others right now. Summary: They scored very well in the swamp event but not off the charts.)
 
@eaglejarl

Proposal: Difficult sealing

I'd like to see sealing that is difficult to break, but that is a bit more tied down than what we have now. The metaphor of "malbodge, but with the compiling changing all the time" seems inelegant. A while back I wrote about a vancian magic system that used something like "cellular automata" similar to wireworld. I think it provides a bit more natural of a base for chakra, and especially sealing.

Here's my proposal:

"Chakra ink" isn't a substance, it's a process. You put minute amounts of your own chakra in chakra-conductive ink in order to create chakra structure.

You need to on-the-fly adjust how much chakra you're putting into chakra ink, in order to account for eddies in the local ambient chakra field. This isn't difficult, but you do need to be able to sense chakra to do it. It's like making sure you're coloring inside the "lines".

This lays down the initial chakra "mould" for infusion, if you don't do it properly, or you're colouring inside the wrong lines, bad things happen. (Note that while you can visually inspect a seal-blank to make sure the lines are laid down correctly, you can't check to make sure someone coloured within them, meaning that ensuring a seal is correct is difficult-to-impossible, depending on QM fiat).

Infusing a seal can be easy or difficult, depending on how the seal was designed, how the components are effected by the ambient chakra field, etc. Some components may be very sensitive to eddies in the local chakra field, others may be pretty solid. It's a design trade-off you have to make, you can have seals that a fast to make, or fast to infuse, not both. A very skilled seal-master may sketch out a very rough explosion seal in under 10 seconds, confident that they'll be able to "fine-tune" it during infusion.

A skilled seal-master can leave variables undefined, as an example they may leave the timer portion of their seal anemic and poorly defined, and then fine-tune it during infusion.
 
I don't think it's safe to assume that the word-halves are just point values. They seem like a deliberately asymmetric element. Something which comes to mind is their modeling the discovery of some secret detail or weakness of a contestant in the manner of what pissed off Noburi about mist drain revelations and what Keiko mentioned about Naruto being shredded by the first opponent to have a good understanding of his signature ability. I wouldn't be surprised if they turned out to be something like everybody who doesn't have their word-halves is disqualified from the tournament regardless of points, or that anybody who holds their word-halves automatically wins the round against them if they come up to each other in the tournament.

Seriously, if we really don't want to lock J in as Hokage by breaking the political clout of his primary rival that's one thing, but don't go handing word-halves back. For all we know, Shin used his bloodline to replace Hazou's with a copy which won't be apparent until the tears don't match up with the proctor's half.

-also the whole, "they tried to kill the team", thing. Lethal accidents happen in tournaments, and there are a lot of people who have an incentive to arrange a lethal accident. Being able to just nope out of suspicious rounds would be very valuable, especially against Downfall and Hinata.
 
-also the whole, "they tried to kill the team", thing. Lethal accidents happen in tournaments, and there are a lot of people who have an incentive to arrange a lethal accident. Being able to just nope out of suspicious rounds would be very valuable, especially against Downfall and Hinata.
If they'd tried to kill us, we'd be dead. And no, lethal accidents in tournaments are absolutely not a thing that happens or the Chuunin Exams wouldn't exist.
 
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6 members had moderate injuries (from first round): -150
They transfer? My understanding was that only the injures received during any given round count towards its score. I think it makes more sense.

But even assuming that we have only 466...
Yes. Theoretically highest possible score is 648. Individuals with this score wouldn't have been paired up with us or ISC for E5 unless everyone involved lied (did they?1​), which means they scored -500 points at least and now have 148.
Are you sure? Do you know what their earlier scores were?
We have an upper estimate, see link above. Then they lost 465 or 630 points in E5, meaning they have 183 or 18 points even if they were absolutely perfect up to that point; more realistically they have ~0 or less. Were they lucky during E5 R2? Actually, if the injury penalties transfer, that means they got -630 or -795, leaving them with 18 or -147.

In any case, Team Kurenai's score was wiped, and our R1/R2 teammates' scores were wiped much less (-40+ for six squads). Unless no less than 12 of them had less than 223 points after E4 and Team Kurenai was perfect, Team Kurenai is now much lower than 16th ranking. (This is assuming that penalties for injures don't transfer between rounds; otherwise, Team Kurenai's position is even worse.)

1. DID THEY? Were everyone on our R1 Red Team and everyone on ISC's R1 team jounin-level deception specialists who tricked the proctors into giving them hundreds of points or tricked the Yakuza into lying to us? If yes: This is bullshit! [x] Armageddon Initiative
 
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I'm siding with "keep Hinata out, don't give back any WHs, but do try to get Kiba and Shino in the tournament if we can". Hinata is a direct political opponent, we can't give Hiashi the prestige of his daughter reaching the tournament. On the other hand, the Aburame are a neutral party that we want to bond with. As to Inuzuka... eh. Sort of opponent, but not a dangerous one, and the more Leaf ninja in the tournament the better.
 
I'm siding with "keep Hinata out, don't give back any WHs, but do try to get Kiba and Shino in the tournament if we can". Hinata is a direct political opponent, we can't give Hiashi the prestige of his daughter reaching the tournament. On the other hand, the Aburame are a neutral party that we want to bond with. As to Inuzuka... eh. Sort of opponent, but not a dangerous one, and the more Leaf ninja in the tournament the better.
Didn't we agree to leave that up to Jiraiya already?
 
If we want to avoid a succession crisis for Hokage, I suggest adding a position: Hokage-in-training, who will be heir apparent and is assistant to the office of hokage.

Unlike the position of Hokage, a person who is Hokage-in-training can be booted out by the clan council at will.
 
If we want to avoid a succession crisis for Hokage, I suggest adding a position: Hokage-in-training, who will be heir apparent and is assistant to the office of hokage.

Unlike the position of Hokage, a person who is Hokage-in-training can be booted out by the clan council at will.
"At will" won't really mean at will, since it's easier to argue in favour of the status quo than it is to argue for a change. The heir apparent would use their political power to ensure that enough people argue for the 'acceptable' status quo even if a more viable candidate emerges, and I don't feel confident that said more capable ninja would take that lying down. It sounds like a recipe to, at least, drastically increase political vitriol, because suddenly it's always Hokage election season.
 
[X][WH] Took all the WH (54 total) and kept them for Uplift

And then, if Jiraiya says so, we can always give Team Kurenai theirs back afterwards.
 
By my count you have 467 or 496:

Event #2+3+4+5
Hazō: 50 + 315 + -223 + 325: 467
Noburi/Keiko: 49 + 315 + -223 + 325: 466

Fifth event, round 1: +185
Turned in documents: +75
Turned in in first hour: +110
No injuries: -0

Fifth event, round 2: +140
Still had documents: +50
24 prisoners: +240
6 members had moderate injuries (from first round): -150

24 prisoners: 36 red team members. You didn't get ISC's team (9 people) or Kurenai (3 people). You got everyone else.



Are you sure?


Are you sure? Do you know what their earlier scores were? (Note that their swamp scores are being updated. We'll announce what the total was as soon as QMs have agreed on it. I have a proposal in to the others right now. Summary: They scored very well in the swamp event but not off the charts.)
EDIT: I no longer consider the 648 estimate for "Theoretically perfect genin squad" at all accurate . The math done here seems to be okay though with respect to Event 5 scores.

Note that theoretically perfect l33thax team has at most a 648 score going into Event 5, Round 1.

(Okay, it can be more than that somehow if they DESTROYED ALMOST EVERYONE IN THE SWAMP EVENT and were perfect from then on.

Almost impossible. Noumero's score upper bound for "Theoretically perfect team." is extremely generous.)

Running assumptions:

1) The Round 2 teams were perfectly arranged to prevent overlap of past teams.
(You guys did check this was possible, right? There are 10 metric buttloads of ways to group these teams, so I assume there must be a few that do it).
2)Team Asuma did not have us as a target in Round 2
3) Nobody else in Round 2 got their docs.
4) Nobody in Round 1 got their docs (we blew em all up)
5) Asuma did a perfect mirror strategy to ours (modulo Team K sparing) and did NOT turn in any docs except their own.

Consider the following Event 5 scores calculations:

Us: (Done by you) : + 325

Uplift Round 1 Teammates:

Fifth event, round 1: +185
Turned in documents: +75
Turned in in first hour: +110
No injuries: -0

Fifth event, round 2: -150
Still had documents: 0
No prisoners: 0
6 members had moderate injuries (from first round): -150

EVENT 5 TOTAL GAIN: +35

Our Round 2 Teammates:

Fifth event, round 1: -495
Imprisoned(9): -270
ALL Injuries: -225

Fifth event, round 2: +140
Still had documents: +50
24 prisoners: +240
6 members had moderate injuries (from first round): -150

EVENT 5 TOTAL GAIN: -355

Team Asuma:

Fifth event, round 1: +320
Still had documents: +50
27 prisoners: +270

Fifth event, round 2: +35
Turned in documents: +75
Turned in in first hour: +110
Injuries 6 (teammates from prev. Round): -150

FINAL EVENT 5 GAIN: + 355


ISC Round 1 Teammates:

Fifth event, round 1: +320
Still had documents: +50
27 prisoners: +270

Fifth event, round 2: -330 or -240
Turned in documents: +0
Imprisoned(6 or 3): -180 or -90
Injuries 6 (teammates from prev. Round): -150


FINAL EVENT 5 GAIN: -10 or +80


ISC Round 2 Teammates:
Fifth event, round 1: -300
Lost documents: -75
No prisoners: 0
9 members had moderate injuries (from first round): -225

Fifth event, round 2: +35
Turned in documents: +75
Turned in in first hour: +110
Injuries 6 (teammates from prev. Round): -150


FINAL EVENT 5 GAIN: -265


CONCLUSION:

Asuma and Uplift are in the Finals. Unless someone decides to injure or assassinate them to prevent this, or someone nukes Mist while we're away.

Unless, for some reason "Lower quartile" still means they have more than a ~200 point lead on us.

Thats almost impossible.

I'm not going to bother with the rest

Because:


Everyone else was without a doubt

IRREVERSIBLY

INDUBITABLY

UNSTOPPABLY


DUNKED

ON.



 
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