To Boldly Go... (a Starfleet quest)

Briefvoice · Nov 7, 2016

It's hard to know when is the "right time" to start the Ambassador project. There might be no particular rationale behind it, but I like the idea of drawing the line at "When we finish all the '2310's' technology related to shipbuilding." Since that's what has been identified as "on track" for the next decade, finishing them sounds like a good signal to start our next generation Explorer.

Leila Hann · Nov 7, 2016

MS-21H 'Hawke' said:
I wouldn't worry about Attrition, we have explorers meant to do long range missions, and a few of them could probably support a long range offensive.

I meant attrition of the amarki scientists as they engage in their version of peer review.

Steven Kodaly · Nov 7, 2016

Crazy Tom said:
Abriel

Ooh, I like. We're adding that one to the pool of future ship names.

OneirosTheWriter said:
no one has any special objections to member races building Constitution-Bs in their own yards?

I think that would be amazing. What're the odds that the member worlds will quietly uprate them during future maintenance cycles?

As for my votes:

[X][EARTH] Allow the Excelsior build in Ana Font Shipyard

[X][NAME1] Aquarius

[X][NAME2] Avandar

[X][BUILD] Excelsior, 6 Constitutions, Renaissance Prototype

[X] Rear Admiral Hikaru Sulu

Simon_Jester · Nov 7, 2016

Leila Hann said:
I meant attrition of the amarki scientists as they engage in their version of peer review.

They are presumably more chill now, or they would not have invented warp drive.

Nix said:
That's true to the first approximation, though fleet combat is raised to the power of 1.15 (IIRC) first for some reason, so higher combat leads to very slightly better chances than you'd expect based on the simple summary of the combat system.

In a single-ship action like this, though, that only increases the Cardassian's chances of hitting by about 1%. Which may be enough to trigger some kind of tipping point, I suppose.

Interestingly, this means that high-Combat, low-health designs are optimized for fleet battle, because the higher your combat score was to begin with, the more it matters that you added a little.

A Miranda punches at 3^1.15 = 3.54
For instance, a Rennie punches at 5^1.15 = 6.37.
A Rennie plus a Miranda punch at 8^1.15 = 10.93.
Despite having Combat 3, and punching at about three and a half when alone, the Miranda boosted the combined strength of its little duet by four and a half. The whole is greater than the sum of its parts... whereas the defensive power of the fleet increases purely as the sum of its parts.

Now imagine ten Rennies fighting all at once.
Total combat is 50, the fleet punches at 50^1.15 = 89.9.
Add a Miranda, and the punch rises to 53^1.15 = 96.1.
This reaffirms the aspect of the whole being greater than the sum of the parts. Firstly because ten Rennies hit roughly fourteen times harder than any one of them would alone. And secondly because adding that one Miranda increased the fleet's overall punch by a little more than six.

[Although this is NOT just true of swarms of ships, obviously. One supership with Combat 50 would have just as high a punch as ten Combat 5 Rennies all fighting at once]

Anyway. The conclusion of this is that if we foresee war, high-Combat, low-durability ships are NOT good choices for being sent on independent duty... we should be holding them in a central reserve and committing them to reinforce when we anticipate a major battle. Because they accomplish more when escorting (hah!) a strong force than they do when operating alone.

In particular, committing a relatively small number of high-combat escorts (like Mirandas, or some day Defiants) to a large and relatively expensive cruiser/explorer force can give it a potentially decisive tactical advantage over another, equally-strong combat force.

Nix · Nov 7, 2016

[X][EARTH] Allow the Excelsior build in Ana Font Shipyard
[X][NAME1] Salnas
[X][NAME2] Avandar
[X] Rear Admiral Hikaru Sulu

Briefvoice · Nov 7, 2016

So right now we have 113 political will. We're likely to get a +25 bonus for completing our ambition to have five 5YMs going at once. Sulu (forgive me for anticipating but he's the runaway winner at this point) brings another +10. And, eh, we have one set of Captain's Logs coming and it seems likely we get at least 5 political will from an event. So maybe 148 to 153 pp going into the Snakepit?

Unless something comes up in the Captain's Logs, it seems like we'll not have a mining colony option we're willing to take for the first time in a while. (I don't think anyone wants to touch that one in Dawiar space.) So what could we do with 150 points?

Allocation for Excelsior's Worth of Resources = 20
4 Diplomatic Pushes = 40
CBZ Starbase = 20 (discount to 18)
Request Budget Increase = 30
Request Academy Expansion = 35

That's 143 right there. If we get 5pp in the CL's, I'd still like to do one more shipyard expansion and grab a 1mt berth at Ana Font for 10pp (discount to 9) to take us neatly to 152pp. If we get 15pp or more in the CLs, we could grab a research team instead.

Of course, if we don't go for the Budget Increase (which is after all a gamble) we could guarantee ourselves a research team, or maybe take that slick Member World Coordination office option (also costing 30pp) that some of us have been eyeing for a couple of turns now.

I don't see the need for a Constellation/Miranda refit request this turn, since all our berths are packed with new builds. Maybe if we have the MW Coordination Office and could use member world berths. Though I do want to take one or the other refit by 2311 Snakepit, so that we can start doing refits after our Constitution-Bs come out of their berths but before we start building Reniassances in those berths. That's a good chance to do a bunch of refits in the gap years.

What do you think? Are people chomping at the bit to go for a Budget Increase that we have to roll for, or would you rather take a sure bet option like the Coordination Office?

ClawClawBite · Nov 7, 2016

I'm still wanting to fit in the Betazoid councillors on ships sooner rather than later.

lbmaian · Nov 7, 2016

Vehrec said:
I personally favor the Aquarius over the Odyssey. Now I know you guys are gonna look at me funny, so let me explain this one. Because in the history of earth spaceflight, the mission of Apollo 13 stands out as the greatest 'Successful Failure'. Despite an accident comparable to a warp-core breach that left their spaceship crippled, venting oxygen, and without power, the three-man crew of that early mission successfully returned home because of their Lunar Module Aquarius. When Odyssey was crippled and lacked life support or power for more than about 15 minutes of operation, the crew shifted into their 'lunar lifeboat' and made it their home for three days. Yes, ultimately Aquarius was sacrificed to the cruel fate of unprotected re-entry, but that does not diminish but rather enhance the mystique of the name.

Odysseus' crew died off during his long adventure, but Aquarius will bring her crew home again. That is why I want Aquarius-to bring them home, for though they are willing to risk death, we should never spend that willingness lightly.

Aquarius is a good name, but I'd prefer to save this name for later. Perhaps for a Constitution-B.

ClawClawBite said:
2d6+2>11 is 2d6 against 9 , 2d6+3>11 is 2d6 vs 8, which is 5/36 or ~13.8%, this is almost the best odds for the curve of a 2d6, but the bonus is smaller at lower and higher numbers as you are needed to roll easy numbers, or are likely to fail harder ones either way.

Okay, I think I see the misunderstanding. You're correctly treating multiple dice rolls as independent events. However, the sum of multiple dice rolls is NOT a uniform distribution - it's more of a normal distribution (not quite one, but taking # dice rolls to the limit, you get a continuous normal distribution). Two 6-sided dice rolls may have 36 possible permutations, but the sum of them "2d6" only has outcomes possible from 2 to 12, with the higher probabilities trending toward the mean.

See AnyDice for distributions/graphs.

Nervos Belli said:
On the topic of this year's snakepit, I'm wondering something about the budget increase. Since the Federation is now two members larger, it makes sense to assume that the resources available to the Federation Council are larger as well. Might this mean that a budget increase now would be larger than at the beginning? It would also be a good way of scaling the budget as the Federation expands.

Last time we got a budget increase, it was worth 50br/30sr. I wonder if the new members and the growing economy will increase this further? If not, it's usually better to just get 3 mining colonies, especially since their productivity, including pp, keep increasing with research. Unfortunately, we only have one such unclaimed mining colony so far, and we want to reserve it for diplomatic reasons. Maybe we'll get lucky in the final captain's log before the snakepit.

Simon_Jester said:
In other words, it would be basically the same as a refit version of the Excelsior that uses 2320 technology instead of 2380 technology.

You mean 2280 technology?

Briefvoice said:
A Betazoid starbase is a good idea before 2311 because we've been told defense requirements for all key systems go up that year.

You know, you'd think that garrison requirements would be based on the sum of BOTH local (member fleet) assets and Starfleet assets. Assuming that's the case, then letting member fleets build their Excelsiors and Constitution-Bs would lower - or at least, delay - Starfleet defense requirements. Refits for Constellations would also really help with increasing local defense (but not Miranda refits, sadly).

Unfortunately, it might be too late to affect the expected 2311 garrison requirements bump, but this is something to keep in mind for ones after that.

Member world coordination office might also help.

Simon_Jester said:
Right now the only thing on that border the Cardassians can't just casually brush away is our free-ranging explorer corps. We have no permanent security.

Technically, we did build 4 outposts in the CBZ.

Also technically, those outposts are now Apiata outposts.

Simon_Jester said:
Me... as I understand it (I wasn't participating then), the whole point of spending the huge political willpower windfall we gained from beating the biophage on Utopia Planitia was that it was supposed to enable our shipbuilding infrastructure to be "good enough" for quite a while.

Actually, Utopia Planitia by itself had an inefficient pp cost for the berths it provided. It cost 135pp, while the equivalent in berths in other shipyards at that time is 90pp (now would likely cost 100pp), although that excludes the additional research team (which typically cost 10-15pp). The main benefit of Utopia Planitia is that berth expansions are expected to be cheaper there than in other shipyards.

anon_user said:
The Gaeni ships were designed before the reliability mechanic was implemented, so. Ironically, due to the way reliability is calculated, unless they get a low base reliability their ships won't be too unreliable, since they don't use many fudge factors.

Oh Gaeni ships definitely have reliability problems:

OneirosTheWriter said:
1) "For ex, I'd expect Gaeni ships to be plagued with issues."

Oh god yes.

The people that run little tech skiffs with 33 power warp cores? Oh god yes they have problems.

But for the Starfleet ships I'm giving that a pass at this stage rather than making it retrospective.

Nix · Nov 7, 2016

CBZ Starbase doesn't make sense since there is nowhere in the new CBZ to put it yet and it might end up being behind the borderzone later. Better a starbase at Betazed and one at Indoria after they join. As for the budget request, I'd like to know whether it would be taken out of the budgets of the members or not. Seeing how Oneiros tracks their resources it seems quite possible that the budget request is zero sum.

I'd like at least one new tech team and possibly either the coordination office or the councellors.

Void Stalker · Nov 7, 2016

Do we need the allocation of resources from an Excelsior and I guess the question with Sulu, is that a one time PP boost or is that a per year boost

Briefvoice · Nov 7, 2016

Nix said:
CBZ Starbase doesn't make sense since there is nowhere in the new CBZ to put it yet and it might end up being behind the borderzone later. Better a starbase at Betazed and one at Indoria after they join.

Well I wouldn't say it makes no sense at all, since whatever sector the starbase ends up in you still have a starbase there, and it's still valuable. And until it does, it's a hard point in the CBZ that ships can retreat to. (On the other hand, the Apiata are also now a hard point that ships can retreat to, so.)

Betazed is a reasonable alternative, though. If nothing else, it would mean we don't have to station any ships there for now.

As for the budget request, I'd like to know whether it would be taken out of the budgets of the members or not. Seeing how Oneiros tracks their resources it seems quite possible that the budget request is zero sum.

That would certainly make it less desirable, and it makes sense. Resources don't just appear out of nowhere after all. If Starfleet has more, logically member worlds have less. I suspect it's also influenced by civilian shipping to some degree, and we might get a better look at those mechanics with the Member World Coordination office.

I'd like at least one new tech team and possibly either the coordination office or the councellors.

Of the two, I'd rather have the coordination office since it's been waiting longer. (And it would be really cool to get more access to those member world sheets we were given a glimpse of.)

Void Stalker said:
Do we need the allocation of resources from an Excelsior and I guess the question with Sulu, is that a one time PP boost or is that a per year boost

By voting for the build schedule people are voting for, they are committing to the allocation of resources request. You don't start an Excelsior and seven cruisers in the same year without asking for some extra resources.

Sulu would almost certainly be a per year boost. I assume we would get this year's if we picked him.

ClawClawBite · Nov 7, 2016

lbmaian said:
Okay, I think I see the misunderstanding. You're correctly treating multiple dice rolls as independent events. However, the sum of multiple dice rolls is NOT a uniform distribution - it's more of a normal distribution (not quite one, but taking # dice rolls to the limit, you get a continuous normal distribution). Two 6-sided dice rolls may have 36 possible permutations, but the sum of them "2d6" only has outcomes possible from 2 to 12, with the higher probabilities trending toward the mean.

See AnyDice for distributions/graphs.

The sum of 2d6 is a small enough set that it can be computed by hand. I did not assume an even distribution of dice, but I did assume an even distribution of difficulties.

If you are computing for a fixed difficulty, than the marginal value of different stat levels become different. In that case, for a target difficulty of 11, buying a stat from 3 to 4 is very valuable, 2 to 3 and 4 to 5 are also high return, and stats outside the 1 to 6 range are a lower success improvement per point for in system events. For explorer missions against 15s, buying up stats from 6 to 9 is the range of higher success per increase (or 5 to 8 with an assumed +1 crew skill bonus).

I don't know that the ranges of target numbers we are needing to hit will stay the same in the long term, but in the short term, looking at fixed target numbers is also a useful counter-analysis.

pheonix89 · Nov 7, 2016

Briefvoice said:
That would certainly make it less desirable, and it makes sense. Resources don't just appear out of nowhere after all. If Starfleet has more, logically member worlds have less. I suspect it's also influenced by civilian shipping to some degree, and we might get a better look at those mechanics with the Member World Coordination office.

Hmm, that's a good reason to grab a second minerals tech team and have one team on each type from now to eternity. Budget requests from the organization that keeps indirectly increasing the pool they are making requests from look a whole lot better. They're not asking for a bigger slice of the pie, they're asking to keep the same size slice of the pie they keep growing.

PauliExklusor · Nov 7, 2016

[X][EARTH] Allow the Excelsior build in Ana Font Shipyard
[X][NAME1] Salnas
[X][NAME2] Avandar
[X][BUILD] Excelsior, 6 Constitutions, Renaissance Prototype
[X] Rear Admiral Hikaru Sulu

Muramasa · Nov 7, 2016

[X][EARTH] Allow the Excelsior build in Ana Font Shipyard
[X][NAME1] Salnas
[X][NAME2] Avandar
[X][BUILD] Excelsior, 6 Constitutions, Renaissance Prototype
[X] Rear Admiral Hikaru Sulu

Void Stalker · Nov 7, 2016

So here is the anydice for our diplo rolls currently for future reference: AnyDice

OneirosTheWriter · Nov 7, 2016

Okay - vote closed!

Can I have a tally?

lbmaian · Nov 7, 2016

Iron Wolf said:
The chair rose, "Salnas, today you have defended your Thesis against all attackers. And, in doing so, argued logic that cannot be denied. Your ascension to Countess of Astronomy is assured, and our understanding of the cosmos will never be the same," she bowed to Salnas, "The work your father started has been completed. Thank you."

Salnas continued to change the Amarki understanding of astronomy for thirty years, and eventually did reform the process by which Amarki doctoral and master's candidates defended their ideas, ushering in a new era of progress. For this, she is irrevocably part of our Amarki History.

Okay, I was planning to save Salnas for an Oberth or science vessel, but this has changed my opinion greatly

[X][EARTH] Allow the Excelsior build in Ana Font Shipyard
[X][NAME1] Salnas
[X][NAME2] Avandar
[X][BUILD] Excelsior, 6 Constitutions, Renaissance Prototype
[X] Rear Admiral Hikaru Sulu

Simon_Jester said:
Anyway. The conclusion of this is that if we foresee war, high-Combat, low-durability ships are NOT good choices for being sent on independent duty... we should be holding them in a central reserve and committing them to reinforce when we anticipate a major battle. Because they accomplish more when escorting (hah!) a strong force than they do when operating alone.

In particular, committing a relatively small number of high-combat escorts (like Mirandas, or some day Defiants) to a large and relatively expensive cruiser/explorer force can give it a potentially decisive tactical advantage over another, equally-strong combat force.

Yeah, escorts are great for initial fleet power, optimized for what are effectively alpha strikes. But there's that tipping point where if your enemy can whether the damage for just long enough, your escorts start getting blown up, and now you've got the reverse of the Battle of Kadesh.

Attack patterns with involve targeting certain ship classes also further complicate things.

ClawClawBite said:
The sum of 2d6 is a small enough set that it can be computed by hand. I did not assume an even distribution of dice, but I did assume an even distribution of difficulties.

If you are computing for a fixed difficulty, than the marginal value of different stat levels become different. In that case, for a target difficulty of 11, buying a stat from 3 to 4 is very valuable, 2 to 3 and 4 to 5 are also high return, and stats outside the 1 to 6 range are a lower success improvement per point for in system events. For explorer missions against 15s, buying up stats from 6 to 9 is the range of higher success per increase (or 5 to 8 with an assumed +1 crew skill bonus).

I don't know that the ranges of target numbers we are needing to hit will stay the same in the long term, but in the short term, looking at fixed target numbers is also a useful counter-analysis.

Yes, there are diminishing returns for increasing stats against a fixed DC. I do think that DCs will somehow continue to get harder, or otherwise by the time we hit 2350s or so with all our S5 P5 D5 ships (approximate stats) running around, we'll be succeeding at rolls really often, and we'll have so many ships that sometimes singular failed rolls won't have negative impact (no doubt depends on event type).

But my original point was that your math, especially your "5/36" stuff, was really suspect.

Iron Wolf · Nov 7, 2016

WHAT MUST I DO TO MAKE IT SO?

I TEARFULLY DRAW MY SWORD IF I MUST DUEL YOU

lbmaian · Nov 7, 2016

Vote Tally : Sci-Fi - To Boldly Go... (a Starfleet quest) | Page 440 | Sufficient Velocity
##### NetTally 1.7.4

[X] Rear Admiral Hikaru Sulu
No. of Votes: 38

[X] Rear Admiral Shey ch'Tharvasse
No. of Votes: 3

Glassware
Crazy Tom
HearthBorn

——————————————————————————————————————————————
Task: BUILD

[X][BUILD] Excelsior, 6 Constitutions, Renaissance Prototype
No. of Votes: 33

——————————————————————————————————————————————
Task: EARTH

[X][EARTH] Allow the Excelsior build in Ana Font Shipyard
No. of Votes: 34

[X][EARTH] Allow the Excelsior build
No. of Votes: 1

Shard

——————————————————————————————————————————————
Task: NAME1

[X][NAME1] Salnas
No. of Votes: 13

Glassware
anon_user
Ato
Crazy Tom
Gear
Iron Wolf
lbmaian
Leila Hann
Muer'ci
Muramasa
Nix
PauliExklusor
Simon_Jester

[X][NAME1] Odyssey
No. of Votes: 11

Briefvoice
AKuz
aledeth
DannyboyZero
Derek58
Japanime
Random Member
tryrar
UbeOne
UberJJK
Void Stalker

[X][NAME1] Diversity
No. of Votes: 3

Happerry
aeqnai
Gingganz

[X][NAME1] Aquarius
No. of Votes: 3

pheonix89
NHO
Steven Kodaly

[X][NAME1] Prometheus
No. of Votes: 2

Nervos Belli
Yeangst

[X][NAME1] Aelin
No. of Votes: 1

MS-21H 'Hawke'

[X][NAME1] Neleyha
No. of Votes: 1

fasquardon

[X][NAME1] Thalisar
No. of Votes: 1

HearthBorn

——————————————————————————————————————————————
Task: NAME2

[X][NAME2] Avandar
No. of Votes: 32

[X][NAME2] Rixx
No. of Votes: 3

Japanime
Happerry
UberJJK

Total No. of Voters: 42

Even excluding my 2-minute late revised vote on ship names, Salnas and Avandar win.

Void Stalker · Nov 7, 2016

OneirosTheWriter said:
Okay - vote closed!

Can I have a tally?

Vote Tally : Sci-Fi - To Boldly Go... (a Starfleet quest) | Page 440 | Sufficient Velocity
##### NetTally 1.7.4

[38] Rear Admiral Hikaru Sulu
[3] Rear Admiral Shey ch'Tharvasse

Glassware
Crazy Tom
HearthBorn

——————————————————————————————————————————————
Task: BUILD

[33][BUILD] Excelsior, 6 Constitutions, Renaissance Prototype

——————————————————————————————————————————————
Task: EARTH

[34][EARTH] Allow the Excelsior build in Ana Font Shipyard
[1][EARTH] Allow the Excelsior build

Shard

——————————————————————————————————————————————
Task: NAME1

[13][NAME1] Salnas

Glassware
anon_user
Ato
Crazy Tom
Gear
Iron Wolf
lbmaian
Leila Hann
Muer'ci
Muramasa
Nix
PauliExklusor
Simon_Jester

[11][NAME1] Odyssey

Briefvoice
AKuz
aledeth
DannyboyZero
Derek58
Japanime
Random Member
tryrar
UbeOne
UberJJK
Void Stalker

[3][NAME1] Diversity

Happerry
aeqnai
Gingganz

[3][NAME1] Aquarius

pheonix89
NHO
Steven Kodaly

[2][NAME1] Prometheus

[1][NAME1] Aelin

[1][NAME1] Neleyha

[1][NAME1] Thalisar

——————————————————————————————————————————————
Task: NAME2

[32][NAME2] Avandar
[3][NAME2] Rixx

Japanime
Happerry
UberJJK

Total No. of Voters: 42

OneirosTheWriter · Nov 7, 2016

Iron Wolf said:
WHAT MUST I DO TO MAKE IT SO?

I TEARFULLY DRAW MY SWORD IF I MUST DUEL YOU

Give it a name, for one thing

lbmaian · Nov 7, 2016

Also, @OneirosTheWriter, can we have a guarantee that the ship names we've chosen aren't already existing Amarkian and Betazoid ship names? It would be kinda awkward if there's both a CAS Salnas and a USS Salnas.

Cteatus · Nov 7, 2016

Iron Wolf said:
I TEARFULLY DRAW MY SWORD IF I MUST DUEL YOU

Attempting to use force of violence to get your way in a Star Trek quest...

Iron Wolf · Nov 7, 2016

OneirosTheWriter said:
Give it a name, for one thing

"I put on my sword and doctor's bonnet"

Cteatus said:
Attempting to use force of violence to get your way in a Star Trek quest...

TEARFULLY, WITH DEEPEST REGRETS, TO DISCHARGE THE DUTIES OF HONOR THAT THE GM SO DEMAND

To Boldly Go... (a Starfleet quest)

Mad Engineering!

a thirsty squirrel

Mad Engineering!

Wants to be Seven Of Nine

Best Girl

Cabal Core Commander

a thirsty squirrel

a thirsty squirrel

Cabal Core Commander

a thirsty squirrel

A Guy Who Fell Down a Hole